National Weather Service
Professional Development Series
Professional Competency Unit

Forecasting Flash Flood Events

PCU 3: Evaluate Ambient Environment

Producer: to be named

Description of Job Duty Competency to be Achieved

Identify potential for short term heavy precipitation events.

Description of Need

Forecasters should understand the synoptic, mesoscale, and storm-scale patterns that are ingredients for development of short-term intense precipitation events.

Specific Job Task Skills and Knowledge

1. Perform an analysis of synoptic-scale data to evaluate the potential for flash flood producing rainfall.

  • Upper air data
  • Precipitable water analysis
  • Satellite data
  • Surface data
  • Model validation and output

    • 2. Perform an evaluation of mesoscale data to diagnose the potential for flash flood producing rainfall.
  • Radar data
  • Surface data
  • Satellite data
  • Model output
  • Upper air data
  • Data assimilation tools

    • 3. Evaluate storm-scale features focusing on precipitation production.

    4. Assimilate various sources of short-range QPF.

  • Model QPF
  • MOS QPF
  • Manual QPF
  • Local QPF

    • Instructional Components

    Instructional Component 3.1: Associate Parameter Values: A database will be created of parameter values associated with flash flood producing rainfall. This database will also describe the physical processes associated with these parameters (an ingredients-based parameter evaluation approach to diagnostic forecasting flash flood producing rainfall). [all]

    Instructional Component 3.2: Developing a Regional Outlook: A training module will be developed that describes how the patterns and parameters from 2.1 and 2.2 can be used to develop an outlook of potential of flash flood producing rainfall for the 12 to 36 hour period. [all]

    Instructional Component 3.3: Synoptic Pattern Database: A database will be created of synoptic-scale patterns associated with occurrence of flash flood producing rainfall. This database will serve to improve pattern recognition skills of weather types that can lead to flash flood causing rainfall. [all]

    Instructional Component 3.4: The Forecast Process: Forecasters will complete the COMET CBL entitled "Forecast Process". [all] [CD]

    Instructional Component 3.5: Bibliography: An on-line (web-based) bibliography identifying key references on synoptic, mesoscale, and storm-scale patterns associated with development of short-term intense precipitation events.

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    Last reviewed or updated on 6/14/00