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National Weather Service |
Run the extended-range hydrologic model, analyze output and prepare product.
Forecasters need to be able to run the available extended-range forecast models, analyze the output for accuracy and applicability and prepare the product for dissemination. The forecaster should understand the impacts of climatological assumptions affecting extended-range forecasts.
1. Demonstrate ability to run selected extended-range hydrologic forecast model(s).
2. Demonstrate understanding of how climatological assumptions affect forecast results.
3. Analyze results for accuracy and applicability including ability to use ESP Analysis and Display Program (ESPADP).
4. Make appropriate adjustments.
5. Disseminate results to users.
Instructional Component 7.1: - Workshop: ESP/Statistical Water Supply. A portion of this workshop describes how to execute the Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) system in an operational mode to produce probabilistic extended-range hydrologic forecasts.
Instructional Component 7.2: - Multiple Training Formats: PCU #11, Hydrologic Forecasting PDS: Conducting Hydrologic Forecast Verification. Workshops, documentation, and other instructional components in this PCU provide training on the uncertainties in predicting hydrologic variables and techniques for assessing the accuracy of hydrologic forecasts (both deterministic and ensemble-based) before they are issued.
Instructional Component 7.3: - Workshop: Basic NWSRFS Operational Forecast System. A portion of this workshop describes how ESP fits in with the overall OFS. Special information required for ESP execution are described.
Instructional Component 7.4: - Workshop: Advanced NWSRFS Operational Forecast System. This workshop includes a description of advanced OFS features which apply to ESP such as database structure, database maintenance, and troubleshooting techniques.
Instructional Component 7.5 - Workshop: Advanced NWSRFS Calibration. A portion of this workshop will describe how the strategy used when calibrating the operational forecast system affects its ability to provide extended-range forecasts when executed in an ensemble mode.
Instructional Component 7.6 - Regional Workshop:Statistical Water Supply Forecasting. These workshops will include descriptions of how to execute regionally-developed statistical water supply software, analyze output, and prepare products.
Instructional Component 7.7 - NWSRFS Documentation: Section VI.5.3C-ESP: Extended Streamflow Prediction Function (ESP) describes format of the command used to execute ESP and Section VI.5.3C-ESP-ERROR: ESP Error Messages describes error messages produced by the function.
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