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6-10 Day outlooks are issued daily between 3pm & 4pm Eastern Time. All forecasts issued on weekends are completely automated while all weekday outlooks are modified by the forecaster.
Please refer to the U.S. Prognostic Discussion for an explanation of terms and symbols used on these maps.
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Prognostic Discussions
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Valid: Jan 19 - 23, 2009 (6-10 Day Outlook)
Valid: Jan 21 - 27, 2009 (8-14 Day Outlook)
Issued: Jan 13, 2009 |
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PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS, MD
300 PM EST TUE JAN 13 2009
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 19 - 23 2009
TODAY'S ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEPICTING A TROUGH ALONG
THE EAST COAST, A RIDGE EXTENDING NEAR THE WEST COAST INTO CENTRAL ALASKA, AND
A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF MODEL RUNS
INDICATE A RETROGRESSION OF THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AS THE RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS OFFSHORE OF THE WEST COAST. THE RETROGRESSION ALLOWS 500-HPA HEIGHTS TO
GRADUALLY DECREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS, BUT THE RAPID WEAKENING OF THE
WESTERN RIDGE FORECAST BY THE OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS IS AN OUTLIER. BELOW NORMAL
500-HPA HEIGHTS FAVOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
CONUS, BUT NUMERICAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE QUITE AS
FRIGID AS PRIOR TO THE OUTLOOK PERIOD. NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS, BUT A COOLING TREND MAY DEVELOP AS THE
WESTERN RIDGE EITHER WEAKENS OR SHIFTS WEST LATER IN THE PERIOD. AS 500-HPA
HEIGHTS RISE IN ALASKA, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED. MOST
PRECIPITATION TOOLS SHOW A PERSISTENT DRY PATTERN ACROSS THE LOWER 48 DUE TO
NORTHWEST FLOW. HOWEVER, TROUGH DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE WEST MAY PROMOTE
CYCLOGENESIS ON THE PLAINS, PER THE OPERATIONAL 12Z GFS AND SEVERAL OF ITS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS, AND THUS NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS. AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD, LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPMENT ALONG OR OFFSHORE OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD IS POSSIBLE AND NEAR
NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. WITH THE WESTERN CONUS
RIDGE SHIFTING WEST AND NORTH, BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST IN THE
ALASKAN PANHANDLE. MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH NEAR THE
ALEUTIANS SHOULD BRING ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION TO THE ALEUTIANS AND
SOUTHWEST ALASKA.
TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z
GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY
7...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...15 PERCENT
OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS
SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S EUROPEAN
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7.
MODEL OF THE DAY: ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5,
DUE TO GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS OFFSET BY POOR TO FAIR
AGREEMENT AMONG THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TOOLS.
THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE AUTO BLEND TEMPERATURE FORECAST,
THE KLEIN, NEURAL NET, AND ANALOG TEMPERATURE SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE MANUAL
BLEND, AND THE CDC TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE NAEFS PRECIPITATION FORECAST,
THE AUTO BLEND PRECIPITATION FORECAST, THE CDC PRECIPITATION FORECAST, ANALOG
SPECIFICATIONS BASED ON THE MANUAL BLEND, AND INSPECTION OF DAILY PRECIPITATION
FORECASTS FROM THE VARIOUS MODELS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 21 - 27 2009
FOR WEEK 2, TODAY'S MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY ON HOW THE LONGWAVE PATTERN EVOLVES
FROM ALASKA DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE CONUS. THE FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS IS
QUITE SENSITIVE TO HOW FAR THE RIDGE INITIALLY NEAR THE WEST COAST RETROGRADES
WESTWARD. THE OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS SHOWS THE MOST RETROGRESSION AND RESULTS IN A
SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE ACROSS THE CONUS WITH AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS AND A RIDGE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. AT THIS TIME,
THE OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS SEEMS TOO EXTREME WITH THE RAPID PATTERN CHANGE.
HOWEVER, TELECONNECTIONS ON A LARGE POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER IN
SOUTHWEST ALASKA AGREED UPON BY THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS GENERALLY
SUPPORTS A TREND TOWARDS COLDER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
CONUS. A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND
FLORIDA DUE TO AN INCREASE IN 500-HPA HEIGHTS, WHILE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST. THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK
IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON THE POSSIBLE PATTERN CHANGE FEATURING TROUGH
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. IF THE TROUGH DEVELOPS, AS FORECAST BY
THE GFS-BASED MODELS, THEN NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS PROBABLE
ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE INCREASE IN 500-HPA HEIGHTS SHOULD
MAINTAIN BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. DOWNSTREAM OF THE
RIDGE AXIS, BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION SHOULD CONTINUE ALONG THE WEST COAST.
ABOVE NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS FAVOR BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ALASKA AND THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE WHILE ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION SHOULD
CONTINUE IN THE ALEUTIANS.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 50 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED
ON DAY 11.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 ON A SCALE OF
1 TO 5, DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN A POTENTIAL LONGWAVE PATTERN CHANGE.
THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON: KLEIN, NEURAL NETWORK, AND ANALOG
SPECIFICATIONS BASED ON THE MANUAL BLEND, THE AUTO BLEND TEMPERATURE FORECAST,
THE ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE GFS-BASED MODELS, THE NAEFS TEMPERATURE
FORECAST, AND TELECONNECTIONS ON A POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER AT
60N 160W.
THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON: NEURAL NETWORK AND ANALOG
PRECIPITATION SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE MANUAL BLEND, THE NAEFS PRECIPITATION
FORECAST, THE AUTO BLEND PRECIPITATION FORECAST, THE CDC PRECIPITATION TOOL,
AND TELECONNECTIONS ON A POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER AT 60N 160W.
FORECASTER: BRAD PUGH
NOTES:
OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE
CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE
STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS
ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS
CHANGE.
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE -
FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY
PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON
AWIPS.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR
TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
JANUARY 15.
NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004:
THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS
PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE
MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE)
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19840127 - 19910117 - 19531226 - 19670114 - 19760117
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19840126 - 19910116 - 19670114 - 19880122 - 19661230
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JAN 19 - 23 2009
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N B OREGON N B NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A B IDAHO N B NEVADA N B
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A A WYOMING A N
UTAH N B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B
NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA N N
N TEXAS N B S TEXAS N B W TEXAS A B
MINNESOTA N N IOWA N N MISSOURI N N
ARKANSAS B B LOUISIANA B B WISCONSIN B N
ILLINOIS B N MISSISSIPPI B B MICHIGAN B N
INDIANA B N OHIO B N KENTUCKY B B
TENNESSEE B B ALABAMA B B NEW YORK B N
VERMONT B N NEW HAMP B N MAINE B N
MASS B N CONN B N RHODE IS B N
PENN B B NEW JERSEY B N W VIRGINIA B B
MARYLAND B B DELAWARE B B VIRGINIA B B
N CAROLINA B B S CAROLINA B B GEORGIA B B
FL PNHDL B B FL PENIN B B AK N SLOPE A N
AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A N AK INT BSN A N
AK S INT A N AK SO COAST A N AK PNHDL A B
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JAN 21 - 27 2009
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B B OREGON B B NRN CALIF N B
SRN CALIF N B IDAHO B B NEVADA B B
W MONTANA B N E MONTANA B A WYOMING B N
UTAH B N ARIZONA N N COLORADO N N
NEW MEXICO N N N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA B A
NEBRASKA B N KANSAS B N OKLAHOMA B N
N TEXAS N N S TEXAS N N W TEXAS N N
MINNESOTA B N IOWA B N MISSOURI B A
ARKANSAS B A LOUISIANA N B WISCONSIN B N
ILLINOIS B A MISSISSIPPI N B MICHIGAN B N
INDIANA B A OHIO B N KENTUCKY B A
TENNESSEE B A ALABAMA N B NEW YORK B N
VERMONT B N NEW HAMP B N MAINE B N
MASS B N CONN B B RHODE IS B B
PENN B N NEW JERSEY B B W VIRGINIA B N
MARYLAND B B DELAWARE B B VIRGINIA B B
N CAROLINA B B S CAROLINA N B GEORGIA N B
FL PNHDL N B FL PENIN N B AK N SLOPE A N
AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A N AK INT BSN A N
AK S INT A B AK SO COAST A B AK PNHDL N B
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
$$
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Time Series of Surface Forecast Skill,
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