By the mid point of the Century, the United States could put a B29 over the North Pole every day for weather reconnaissance and Russia was placing icestations on the Arctic Ocean that would have fleets of aircraft and helicopters serving them. Soon after came the satellite age and remote sensing opened up a means of constants surveillance for many disciplines. Thus, three generations of Arctic researchers were created whose time in the Arctic was minimal but whose knowledge was greater than had been dreamed of when a scientists field of endeavor was limited to what he could cover by sailing ship, kayak or dog team during expeditions that required several years instead of a summer. Arctic research in the 21st Century must examine its immediate past and ensure that quick looks at large areas are backed up by ground truthing on a regular basis. Obviously, the easiest way to achieve this is to incorporate the inhabitants of the Arctic as full members of the scientific and research community. Steps are underway in all Arctic nations to do this and it is imperative that this movement towards incorporation of Arctic residents in the great global research programs be accelerated. Arctic research in the 21st Century should focus, at a minimum, on the following four major areas:
Research to meet the needs of global models These needs have been recognized by a major effort launched by the United States titled Study of Environmental Arctic Change (SEARCH), which is already generating a strong response throughout the circumpolar world as well as nations not a part of the Arctic that have strong Arctic interests. SEARCH has been conceived as a broad interdisciplinary, multi-scale program to understand the recent and ongoing changes that have resulted in dramatic decreases in sea ice in the Arctic, dramatic changes in permafrost, radiation effects including the ultra violet holes at both ends of the planet, and concurrent changes in animal and plant populations. It includes a long term program to track environmental changes, a modeling program to test ideas about the coupling between different components, and to attempt to predict the future course of change in the Arctic and its effect upon other systems linked to the Arctic. It will institute process studies to test hypotheses about feedback processes; and an assessment component to explain, to the best of our abilities, the ultimate impact of global change on the Arctic and the global ecosystem and the societies that live within and depend upon those ecosystems. The transboundary movement of contaminants, both across
ecosystem boundaries
Research to measure changes in Arctic ecosystems and their
flora and fauna Disputes, often rancorous, exist already throughout the circumpolar north on the above issues. Solving them will require two major changes in the traditional manner in which fisheries and game biologists and regulators have approached the problem. First, it will require an examination of the present scientific methods in use, especially those methods used in measuring populations. Second, it will require a much closer incorporation of local northern populations in both the science and the regulation of animal populations and the ecosystems that support them. The use of protected areas in maintaining healthy ecosystems
and animal populations has received
strong impetus in recent years; and in many parts of
the Arctic a high degree of acceptance by local residents,
both indigenous and non-indigenous.
Monitoring programs must be maintained at
a level that will enable local needs to be treated equally
with major Research to meet the needs of Arctic inhabitants,
primarily those indigenous people in small communities Regional air service in most Arctic countries still requires
long flights south
to connect to another flight north to make connections
between communities only a few hundred
ilometers apart. A trip of 250 kilometers can
become one of 5,000 is some cases. There have been recent
advances by air carriers operated by indigenous people organizations
to provide east Continued advances in aircraft designed for Arctic conditions
will hopefully be a priority, The United States adopted telehealth as one of its major
priorities during the
period (1998-2000) that it chaired the Arctic Council.
In addition to advances
in the health delivery system, we hoped to bring a focus
on the problem of bandwidth adequate
to serve small communities in the Information Age.
In Alaska, there is a large group working on distant education under The telecommunications industry is largely deregulated in many parts of the Arctic and it makes it difficult to plan regional systems without strong public planning efforts to identify needs. With adequate bandwidth, the science community can involve local inhabitants in research to a degree never possible before. This has already begun in Alaska and other parts of the Arctic. Being able to input local observations on a continuing basis into regional and global models should make possible a degree of predictive capacity far beyond our present efforts. Research to meet the needs of resource development in
the Arctic Similar to the 1970s there is again a high interest in
pipelines, oil tankers, liquefied
natural gas systems and gas to liquid plants. With the large
number of projects being discussed there is little doubt
that some, if not
many, will come to pass. A great deal was learned about
how to mitigate the effects of resource development on ecosystems and there
is still a Continued research in oil spill response, especially in
areas impacted by ice,
should remain a high priority. We have gone about as far
as we can with mechanical recovery
through use of skimmers and with in-situ burning techniques.
A serious effort needs to be undertaken again on chemical responses for those spills where weather and or ice makes
the present In the present situation where changes in permafrost temperatures
are being noted
at a rate never observed before. Those methods used to
protect permafrost from degradation
will require even more stringent application and monitoring.
Design standards must be prepared to deal with a greater range of possibilities in soil stability. Communities will not
have the Fisheries are still the major economic mainstay of many
Arctic communities, especially
those relying upon a subsistence economy and life style.
It is already
apparent that sea mammals are under some stress in their
present habitats. Cod and other temperature
sensitive species will respond as they have
in the past to changes. There have been substantial advances
in the use of acoustics and other technologies in measuring animal
populations There is a great deal of research underway already in
measuring the basic productivity
of the oceans but this area will continue to require a
high priority until we figure out
whether declines of high tropic level species are
due to mistakes in regulation, due to lack of basic energy
sources or just certain species doing what they want to do. The same
applies to Conclusions It will be critical to bring together on a continuing basis those studying physical systems with those working on biological systems in each region. It would be a mistake to assume that this is happening as a regular part of our way of doing science. We have come a long way in the past decade on incorporating traditional history and knowledge on local indigenous peoples in our findings. Joint efforts sponsored by Working Groups of the Arctic Council with U.N. agencies are breaking new ground. Permanent participants are being sponsored by their national funding sources. There is still a great deal of information to gain by continuing and enhancing these efforts. It is not probable that there will be large increases
in Arctic populations due
to immigration as occurred in the last century, but even
small increases can
have a major effect. The greatest danger will come from
the continued global
population increase and the stresses created for all of
the planet, including the Arctic. |
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