|
|
Research
Pandemic Influenza and Healthcare
Demand in the Netherlands: Scenario Analysis
Marianne L.L. van Genugten,* Marie-Louise A. Heijnen,* and Johannes
C. Jager*
*National Institute for Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven,
the Netherlands
| Table
5. Hospitalizations and deaths in various scenarios for alternative
age-specific attack ratesa |
|
|
|
No. of hospitalizations per age group
|
No. of deaths per age group
|
| |
|
|
| |
|
|
Age group proportion
|
|
|
Age group proportion
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Scenario |
Regular epidemic
|
Groups equally affected
|
1:1:2
|
1:2:1
|
2:1:1
|
Previous pandemicsb
|
Regular epidemic
|
Groups equally affected
|
1:1:2
|
1:2:1
|
2:1:1
|
Previous pandemicsb
|
|
|
Nonintervention
|
10,186
|
12,478
|
19,630
|
9,184
|
10,252
|
7,541
|
4.040
|
5,199
|
9,009
|
3,288
|
4,197
|
2,746
|
|
Influenza vaccination
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total population
|
3,847
|
4,844
|
8,068
|
3,285
|
3,939
|
2,716
|
1,738
|
2,245
|
3,929
|
1,401
|
1,809
|
1,169
|
|
Risk groups
|
3,968
|
4,962
|
8,171
|
3,410
|
4,058
|
2,840
|
1,789
|
2,294
|
3,972
|
1,454
|
1,860
|
1,222
|
|
Pneumococcal vaccination
|
7,008
|
8,574
|
13,460
|
6,323
|
7,053
|
5,200
|
3,903
|
5,015
|
8,697
|
3,178
|
4,054
|
2,654
|
|
Neuraminidase inhibitors
|
5,093
|
6,239
|
9,815
|
4,592
|
5,126
|
3,771
|
2,020
|
2,600
|
4,505
|
1,644
|
2,099
|
1,373
|
|
| aGross attack
rate 30%. |
| bDistribution
from Meltzer et al. (9) based on previous
pandemics. |
| Table
8. Hospitalizations and deaths for alternative values for pneumococcal
related variablesa |
|
|
Scenario |
No. of hospitalizations
|
No. of deaths
|
|
|
|
Base case
|
Reduction of complications
|
Vaccine efficacy
|
Base case
|
Reduction of complications
|
Vaccine efficacy
|
|
|
|
|
|
25%
|
75%
|
25%
|
75%
|
25%
|
75%
|
25%
|
75%
|
|
|
Non intervention
|
10,186
|
10,186
|
10,186
|
10,186
|
10,186
|
4,040
|
4,040
|
4,040
|
4,040
|
4,040
|
|
Pneumococcal vaccination
|
7,008
|
8,597
|
5,418
|
8,945
|
7,703
|
3,903
|
3,971
|
3,834
|
3,986
|
3,933
|
|
| aSee
Table 1. |
|
