US Forest Service Research and Development A Climate Model for the Western United States - Rocky Mountain Research Station - RMRS - US Forest Service
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  • Fort Collins, CO 80526
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A Climate Model for the Western United States

Climate is the primary factor controlling the distribution of plants, but climate has been difficult to predict (especially for remote locations) because of a lack of weather stations across broad geographic areas. Recent improvements in data collection and analyses have provided the ability to predict climate in the western U.S. Model predictions are highly accurate, explaining 87 to 99 percent of the variation. For example, estimates averaged within 0.2 degrees centigrade for temperature and 2.7 mm for precipitation.

A few of the biologically meaningful variables that can be derived from predicted climate are mean annual temperature, annual precipitation, growing season precipitation, length of the frost-free period, and degree days. The accompanying figure shows degree days >5 degrees centigrade in the vicinity of Lewiston, ID, and Clarkston, WA. Each pixel is 1 km.

The climate models can be linked with genetics models to predict the distribution of plant species. Climate change scenarios can then be included to see how species might adjust to changing climates. In one application of this modeling technique, suitable climate for Engelmann spruce is expected to be reduced about 89 percent by 2090 because suitable climates are pushed upward and northward. Conversely, suitable climate for western white pine could expand by about 70 percent.

More information on this study can be found in:

Rehfeldt, G.E. 2006. A spline model of climate for the western United States. Gen. Tech. Rep. RMRS-165. Fort Collins, CO: USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station. 21 p.

Rehfeldt, G.E. 2004. Interspecific and intraspecific variation in Picea engelmannii and its congeneric cohorts: biosystematics, genecology, and climate change. Gen. Tech. Rep. RMRS-134. Fort Collins, CO: USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station. 18 p.

Richardson, B.A., M.V. Warwell, N.B. Klopfenstein, G.I. McDonald. (in press.) Integration of population genetic structure and plant response to climate change: sustaining genetic resources through evaluation of projected threats.

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Last Modified: Monday, 28 April 2008 at 17:16:23 EDT (Version 1.0.5)