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News & Information
CDC Statements on Diabetes Issues
Lifetime Risk for Diabetes Mellitus in the United States
Source: Narayan KMV, Boyle JP, Thompson TJ, Sorensen SW, Williamson DF. Lifetime risk for diabetes mellitus in the United States.
JAMA 2003 October 8;290(14):1884-1890.
Results from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) study show that the lifetime risk of developing diabetes for the average American is great. What is lifetime risk? According to this study,
lifetime risk is the probability that a person will develop diabetes in his or her
lifetime. Approximately one in three Americans born in 2000 will develop diabetes, which makes primary prevention of diabetes an important priority for the nation.
Results
The lifetime risk of developing diabetes for an average person born in the
United States in year 2000 until their death
- Males – 1 in 3 chance
- Females – 2 in 5 chance
- Hispanic females – 1 in 2 chance (high risk)
Public Health Implications
Our estimates suggest the average adult has a significant chance of developing diabetes in their lifetime, approximately 32.8% for males and 38.5% for females. Females are higher risk at all ages, while Hispanics have the highest risk with males at 45.4% and females at 52.5%. The good news is that
in these categories, the numbers decline to 22.4% for females and 18.9% for males at age 60 years, and to 6.9% and 5.2%, at age 80 years.
The average American has a substantial possibility of being diagnosed with diabetes during their lifetime.
Because we can prevent or delay the onset of Type 2 diabetes, primary prevention of diabetes should be an important priority for the nation.
The immediate challenge is primary prevention of diabetes
The following questions remain:
- The lifetime risk of developing diabetes is alarming. How does this compare
with the lifetime risk for other chronic diseases such as heart disease, cancer,
Alzheimers disease?
- According to our study the lifetime risk of diabetes is comparable with
or higher than that for many diseases and conditions that are perceived
as common. For example, at age 70 the residual lifetime risk of diabetes
for men is about 1 in 10, the same as dementia. The lifetime risk of diabetes
is also considerably higher than the widely publicized 1 in 8 risk for
breast cancer among U.S. women.
- What is primary prevention?
- Preventing a disease before it occurs.
- Who can benefit most from primary prevention?
- All people who are at high risk for diabetes.
- Why do minorities have a higher lifetime risk for diabetes?
- The lifetime risk of diabetes for all Americans is high. There are
some differences between various groups, and the reasons for this are
complex and not fully understood.
- What is the government doing to increase diabetes awareness among the highest
risk groups: women, Hispanics, Native Americans, and African Americans?
- Results of recent clinical trials show promise that diabetes itself
may be prevented or at least delayed with lifestyle interventions that
produce modest weight loss or with the use of drugs. The DHHS is implementing
diabetes prevention efforts through “Steps to a Healthier US." CDC and
NIH are also focusing efforts on primary prevention.
* Links to non-Federal organizations are provided solely as a service
to our users. Links do not constitute an endorsement of any organization
by CDC or the Federal Government, and none should be inferred. The CDC
is not responsible for the content of the individual organization Web
pages found at this link.
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Page last modified: December 20, 2005
Content Source: National Center for Chronic Disease Prevention and Health Promotion
Division of Diabetes Translation
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