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Salmon Predation Index



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 •2008 Annual Update
 •January 2009 Forecast
 •Adult Return Data

Large–scale Ocean and Atmospheric Indicators

 •Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)
 •Multivariate El Niño Southern Oscillation Index (MEI)
 • Basin-scale winds

Local and Regional Physical Indicators

 •Sea surface temperature anomalies
 •Coastal upwelling
 •Physical spring transition
 •Deep–water temperature and salinity

Local Biological Indicators

 •Copepod biodiversity
 •Northern copepod anomalies
 •Copepod community structure
 •Biological spring transition
 •June spring Chinook
 •September coho
 •Zooplankton species composition

Indicators Under Development

 •A second mode of North Pacific sea surface temperature variation
 •Phytoplankton biomass
 •Euphausiid egg concentration, adult biomass, and production rates
 •Interannual variation in habitat area
 •Forage fish and Pacific hake abundance
 •Salmon predation index
 •Potential indices for future development

Introduction to Pacific Northwest Oceanography

 •Physical oceanographic considerations
 • Climate–scale physical variability

Ocean Sampling Methods

 •Hydrography, zooplankton, and ichthyoplankton
 •Juvenile salmon sampling

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Salmon Predation Index


A salmon predation index will integrate four variables found to influence predation rates of Columbia River salmon in the ocean (Emmett 2006).  These variables are based on the following spring (May/June) measurements: 

  1. Abundance of Pacific whiting (hake) off the Columbia River
  2. Abundance of forage fish off the Columbia River
  3. Turbidity of the Columbia River
  4. Columbia River flows
Predator and forage–fish abundances are estimated annually from the Predator/Forage Fish Survey, and turbidity will be estimated using satellite imagery, Secchi disc readings, and transmissometer measurements, each of which has been collected since 1998.  Initial analyses indicates that during years when hake abundance is low and forage fish abundance, turbidity, and Columbia River flows are high, salmon marine survival is high.  However, if even one variable has an opposite value, salmon marine survival declines. 








last modified 01/09/2009

                   
   
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