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ESRL Seasonal Forecast Tool, Based on Tropical SSTs

Verification Page

Plot by Forecast Method

Forecast made 1 Dec 2008

CCA Method JFM AMJ
SST CCA 1-3 Month SST Forecast CCA 4-6 Month SST Forecast
Tropical Precip CCA 1-3 Month Trop Precip Forecast CCA 4-6 Month Trop Precip Forecast
N. American Precip CCA 1-3 Month NAmer Precip Forecast CCA 4-6 Month NAmer Precip Forecast
500mb Height CCA 1-3 Month 500z Forecast CCA 4-6 Month 500z Forecast
Surface Temp CCA 1-3 Month Tsfc Forecast CCA 4-6 Month Tsfc Forecast
Click on row or column heading for larger images.

Choose by SST forecast methodology:

  1. Select SST forecast methodology:
  2. Forecast from:
  3. Select units desired:

Each month, new forecasts are made for the subsequent 4 overlapping 3-month seasons. Usually the forecasts will be updated by the 10th of the month. Forecasts are based on a "two-tiered" approach: 1. tropical (20N-20S) sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies are independently predicted (statistically and/or dynamically); 2. these forecast SSTs used as boundary conditions for predicting the seasonal anomalies of precipitation, 500-mb height and surface temperature. Further details on methodology of ESRL 2-Category, 2-Tier Seasonal Forecast Tool.

NOTE: These seasonal forecasts are strictly experimental. NOAA and the Physical Sciences Division are not responsible for any consequences resulting from their use.