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ESRL Seasonal Forecast Tool, Based on Tropical SSTs

Verification Page

Plot by Forecast Variable

Forecasts made 1 Dec 2008

SST Forecast JFM AMJ
CCA Method CCA 1-3 Month SST Forecast CCA 4-6 Month SST Forecast
NCEP Model NCEP 1-3 Month SST Forecast NCEP 4-6 Month SST Forecast
IRI Model IRI 1-3 Month SST Forecast IRI 4-6 Month SST Forecast
Linear Model LIM 1-3 Month SST Forecast LIM 4-6 Month SST Forecast
NSIPP Model NSIPP 1-3 Month SST Forecast NSIPP 4-6 Month SST Forecast
CPC Constructed Analog HCA 1-3 Month SST Forecast HCA 4-6 Month SST Forecast
Average of 6 Forecasts ENS 1-3 Month SST Forecast ENS 4-6 Month SST Forecast
Persistence Persistence 1-3 Month SST Forecast Persistence 4-6 Month SST Forecast
Click on row or column heading for larger images.

Choose by forecast variable:

  1. Select variable desired:
  2. Forecast from:
  3. Select units desired.

Each month, new forecasts are made for the subsequent 4 overlapping 3-month seasons. Usually the forecasts will be updated by the 10th of the month. Forecasts are based on a "two-tiered" approach: 1. tropical (20N-20S) sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies are independently predicted (statistically and/or dynamically); 2. these forecast SSTs used as boundary conditions for predicting the seasonal anomalies of precipitation, 500-mb height and surface temperature. Further details on methodology of ESRL 2-Category, 2-Tier Seasonal Forecast Tool.

NOTE: These seasonal forecasts are strictly experimental. NOAA and the Physical Sciences Division are not responsible for any consequences resulting from their use.