COASTAL WATCHES & WARNINGS
This display shows an approximate representation of coastal areas under a hurricane warning (red), hurricane watch (pink), tropical storm warning (blue) and tropical storm watch (yellow). The orange circle indicates the current position of the center of the tropical cyclone. The black line and dots show the National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast track of the center at the times indicated. The NHC forecast tracks of the center can be in error, and the white area indicates the average area of uncertainty for the position of the center.

It is important to realize tropical cyclones are not a point. Their effects can span many hundreds of miles from the center. The area experiencing hurricane force (one-minute average wind speeds of at least 74 mph) and tropical storm force (one-minute average wind speeds of 39-73 mph) winds can extend well beyond the white area shown enclosing the most likely track area of the center. The distribution of hurricane and tropical storm force winds in this tropical cyclone can be seen in the Cumulative Wind Distribution graphic displayed below.

CUMULATIVE WIND DISTRIBUTION (operational for 2006)
This display shows how the size of the storm has changed, and the areas affected so far by tropical storm and hurricane force winds, in orange and red, respectively. It is based on information contained in the set of advisories indicated in the caption at the top of the figure. Note that the display is based on estimated coverage of one-minute average winds, not gusts.

MAXIMUM WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE (operational for 2006)
The table shows the probability that the maximum 1-minute wind speed of the tropical cyclone will be within any of eight intensity ranges during the next 72 hours. It is based on the outcomes of similar NHC wind speed forecasts during the period 1988-1997. The data base excludes unnamed tropical depressions. NA indicates data not available. TF indicates too few (<10) similar forecasts during 1988-1997 to yield reliable results.