Foreword

Projections of Education Statistics to 2016 is the 35th report in a series begun in 1964. This report provides revisions of projections shown in Projections of Education Statistics to 2015. It includes statistics on elementary and secondary schools and degree-granting institutions. Included are projections of enrollment, graduates, teachers, and expenditures to the year 2016. In addition to projections at the national level, the report includes projections of public elementary and secondary school enrollment and public high school graduates to the year 2016 at the state level.

The projections in this report were produced by the National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) to provide researchers, policy analysts, and others with state-level projections developed using a consistent methodology. They are not intended to supplant detailed projections prepared in individual states.

This is the first edition of the Projections of Education Statistics to include projections of enrollment at degree-granting institutions by race/ethnicity. Unlike the last two editions of this series, this edition does not contain projections for expenditures at degree-granting institutions. Due to the changes in the accounting standards used to report financial data for both public and private institutions over the last ten years, there are not yet enough data to produce projections.

Assumptions regarding the population and the economy are the key factors underlying the projections of education statistics. NCES projections do not reflect changes in national, state, or local education policies that may affect enrollment levels.

Appendix A of this report outlines the projection methodology, describing the models and assumptions used to develop the national and state projections. The enrollment models use enrollment data and population estimates and projections from NCES and the U.S. Census Bureau. The models are based on the mathematical projection of past data patterns into the future. The models also use projections of economic variables from Global Insight, Inc., an economic forecasting service.

The projections presented in this report are based on the 2000 census and assumptions for the fertility rate, internal migration, net immigration, and mortality rate. For further information, see appendix A.

Most of the projections of education statistics include three alternatives, based on different assumptions about demographic and economic growth paths. Although the first alternative set of projections (middle alternative projections) in each table is deemed to represent the most likely projections, the low and high alternatives provide a range of outcomes.

Val Plisko, Associate Commissioner
Early Childhood, International, and Crosscutting Studies Division
December 2007

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