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National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism
Division of Epidemiology and Prevention Research
Alcohol Epidemiologic Data System
SURVEILLANCE REPORT #73
APPARENT PER CAPITA ALCOHOL CONSUMPTION:
NATIONAL, STATE, AND REGIONAL TRENDS, 1977–2003
Nekisha E. Lakins, M.A.1
Gerald D. Williams, D.Ed.1
Hsiao-ye Yi, Ph.D.1
Michael E. Hilton, Ph.D. 2
1 CSR, Incorporated
Suite 1000
2107 Wilson Boulevard
Arlington, VA 22201
2 Division of Epidemiology and Prevention Research
National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism
5635 Fishers Lane, MSC 9304
Bethesda, MD 20892–9304
August 2005
U.S. Department of Health and Human Services
Public Health Service
National Institutes of Health
CSR, Incorporated, operates the Alcohol Epidemiologic Data System (AEDS) under Contract No. N01AA32007 for the Division of Epidemiology and Prevention Research, National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism
HIGHLIGHTS
This surveillance report on 1977–2003 apparent per capita alcohol consumption in the United States is the 19th in a series of consumption reports produced annually by the National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism (NIAAA). Findings are based on alcoholic beverage sales data, either collected directly by the Alcohol Epidemiologic Data System (AEDS) from the States or provided by beverage industry sources. Population data provided by the U.S. Census Bureau are used as denominators to calculate per capita rates.
The following are highlights from the current report, which updates consumption trends through 2003:
United States per capita consumption of ethanol from all alcoholic beverages combined in 2003 was 2.22 gallons, representing a 0.9 percent increase from 2.20 gallons in 2002. The increase is due to the increase in per capita consumption of wine (from 0.33 to 0.34 gallons ethanol) and spirits (from 0.65 to 0.67 gallons ethanol). However, per capita consumption for beer decreased (from 1.23 to 1.22 gallons ethanol).
Between 2002 and 2003, changes in overall per capita consumption of ethanol included increases in 30 states and the District of Columbia and decreases or no change in 20 states.
Analysis of overall per capita alcohol consumption by census region between 2002 and 2003 indicated increases in the Northeast (1.9 percent), the Midwest (0.9 percent), and the South (0.4 percent), and a decrease in the West (0.4 percent).
Healthy People 2010 has set the national objective for reducing
per capita alcohol consumption to no more than 2 gallons ethanol. To meet
the 2010 objective, per capita alcohol consumption will need to decrease
by 9.9 percent, or 1.4 percent per year from 2004 through 2010.
INTRODUCTION
This surveillance report on per capita consumption of alcohol in the United States is the 19th in a series of reports that examine alcohol consumption trends on a national, State, and regional basis. Like previous reports on per capita alcohol consumption, it is intended to provide updated alcohol information for policymakers, health care providers, researchers, and others concerned about alcohol issues. Data presented in this report are related to one of the national objectives set in Healthy People 2010 (U.S. Department of Health and Human Services 2000) regarding per capita alcohol consumption. This objective was to reduce the national per capita alcohol consumption level to no more than 2 gallons ethanol by 2010. The current report updates 1977–2002 alcohol consumption trends (Lakins et al. 2004) with new data for 2003. Data are presented in three tables. The first table presents national data on trends in beer, wine, and spirits consumption, as well as on all alcoholic beverages combined. The second table presents data on alcohol consumption for individual States for 2003. States also are ranked in deciles according to total ethanol consumption. The third table presents data on consumption trends for each type of beverage and all beverages combined for the Northeast, Midwest, South, and West regions defined by the U.S. Census Bureau.
DATA
Alcohol Consumption Data
AEDS makes every effort to obtain alcoholic beverage sales data from all States and the District of Columbia because sales data more accurately reflect actual consumption of alcoholic beverages than do production and shipments data from beverage industry sources. For 2003 AEDS received complete beverage sales and/or tax receipts reports from 36 States for beer, 34 States for wine, and 32 States for spirits.1 For the remaining States and the District of Columbia, shipments data from beverage industry sources (Adams Beverage Group 2003a, b, c) were used for the numerator to calculate per capita consumption. Although sales and tax receipt data tend to provide slightly lower per capita estimates (about .01 to .02 gallons lower), the mixed use of data from sales and shipments sources appears to have little effect on overall trends in per capita alcohol consumption (Campbell et al. 1994).
(1 The following 42 States provided alcoholic beverage sales data for beer, wine, and/or, spirits for 2003: Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Hawaii, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, Nebraska, Nevada, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, Wisconsin, Wyoming.)
Population Data
State population estimates for persons ages 14 and older were obtained from Internet releases by the U.S. Census Bureau (2005). These data are used as denominators to calculate the per capita consumption figures.
To make the trend data more precise, AEDS revises data published in previous reports when the Census Bureau makes major revisions to their population estimates. One such revision occurred in the report published two years ago (Nephew et al. 2003). In that report, the 1990s population estimates used in the past were replaced with the reestimated intercensal population data that bridge the 1990 and 2000 censuses (U.S. Census Bureau 2002). Because the new population estimates were generally higher than the old estimates, this revision resulted in slight decreases in calculated per capita ethanol consumption for the 1990s (especially the later part of the decade). Although most of these changes are minor, one impact of the revision is the change to the baseline number cited by Healthy People 2010 (U.S. Department of Health and Human Services 2000) to set the national health objective for reducing per capita alcohol consumption. The baseline year was 1997, the latest data year available at the time when the document was prepared. The revised data changed the 1997 baseline number from 2.18 to 2.14 gallons ethanol per capita. Therefore, readers should take this into consideration when assessing progress toward reaching the national health objective of 2 gallons ethanol per capita in 2010.
METHODS
Conversion of Ethanol Content
AEDS uses an estimate of average ethanol content in the alcoholic beverages to convert the gallons of sold or shipped beer, wine, and spirits into gallons of ethanol (pure alcohol) before calculating per capita consumption estimates. The ethanol conversion coefficients (ECC, i.e., proportion of pure alcohol for each beverage type) are 0.045 for beer, 0.129 for wine, and 0.411 for spirits (Doernberg and Stinson 1985).
AEDS has considered recent changes in the alcoholic beverage market which may affect the ECCs used in the current report. For instance, the introduction of “light” beer, “light” wines, and coolers (both wine and spirits) may have slightly lowered the average ethanol content in some alcoholic beverages. Kling (1991, 1989) suggests that there were decreases in the ethanol content of spirits during the 1980s. However, such decreases may be offset by the increase in sales of drinks with higher ethanol content, such as premium brand liquors, fortified wines, malt liquors, and locally produced beers and ales (microbrews). “Ice” beers and “dry” beers, for example, both have higher ethanol content than either premium or light beers (M. Shanken Communications, Inc. 1994). Therefore, changes in the average net ethanol content across all beverages have probably been minimal and not large enough to alter the trends in overall per capita consumption.
A recent study by Kerr, Brown, and Greenfield (2004) attempted to estimate national average ECC and State-specific ECC for beer. Using sources from the alcoholic beverage industry, they derived average State beer ethanol content for a given year based on three components of data: (1) the market shares of beer categories (such as ice beer, imports, premium, etc.); (2) the national market shares of leading brands in each category; and (3) brand-level ethanol contents. Their findings suggest that the national average ECC of beer was higher than 0.045, the ECC used in this report. It increased from 0.0458 in 1993 to 0.0475 in 1996 and then decreased to 0.0465 in 2001. Their state-specific estimates indicate that ECC for beer varied by State and over time. While this approach to estimating per capita ethanol consumption is ideal, it relies on production/shipments data from beverage industry sources, which are less accurate than sales/tax receipts data with regard to actual consumption. Furthermore, there are many uncertainties in the long-term availability of data sources used by Kerr and colleagues for generating trend data such as those covered in this surveillance report. Therefore, AEDS did not make any changes to the ECCs used in the current report. AEDS will continue to look for methods that can reliably and consistently account for changes in the average ethanol content level of alcoholic beverages.
Population Denominator
AEDS uses a population of persons aged 14 and older to calculate per capita consumption rates. Although age 14 is below the minimum legal age for the purchase of alcoholic beverages throughout the United States, most self-report surveys indicate that many 14-year-olds drink alcoholic beverages. For example, data from the NIAAA 2001–2002 National Epidemiologic Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions indicate that 12.2 percent of current drinkers ages 18 and older in the United States began drinking at age 15 or younger (AEDS 2004). Results from the Monitoring the Future survey in 2000 (Johnston et al. 2003) indicate that 43.1 percent of eighth graders (13- to 14-year-olds) reported past-year use of alcohol (i.e., beyond a few sips). Also, using data from the National Household Survey on Drug Abuse in 2000, Foster et al. (2003) found the mean age of initiation of alcohol use among 12-20 year olds to be 14 years of age.
Limitations
Individuals familiar with survey reports and other scientific literature often are accustomed to the presentation of significance tests, or confidence intervals, on any data comparisons or trends. However, because data presented in this report are based on total actual sales and/or shipments, no measures of statistical significance are provided. Nonetheless, it is important to note that these data are still only estimates and may be subject to reporting error.
In addition to ECC, many factors may result in inaccuracies in estimates of per capita alcohol consumption. For instance, per capita consumption estimates in some States can be inflated by such factors as cross-border sales to buyers from neighboring States. Other factors include: variation in State reporting practices for sales of alcoholic beverages; time-delay between State taxation records and actual consumption; exclusion of alcohol contained in medications and foods; unrecorded legal home production; and illicit production, importation, and sales. These factors are discussed in detail in the latest AEDS data reference manual (DRM) on per capita alcohol consumption (Nephew et al. 2004). The DRM can be ordered on NIAAA’s Web site (www.niaaa.nih.gov).
REFERENCES
Adams Beverage Group. Adams Beer Handbook, 2003. New York: Adams, 2004a.
Adams Business Media. Adams Liquor Handbook, 2003. New York: Adams, 2004b.
Adams Business Media. Adams Wine Handbook, 2003. New York: Adams, 2004c.
Alcohol Epidemiologic Data System (AEDS). Unpublished data from the 2001–2002 National Epidemiologic Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions, National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism, 2004.
Campbell, K.E.; Clem, D.; and Williams, G.D. Technical report: 1986–91 per capita ethanol consumption trends using beverage industry shipments data compared to combined sales/tax receipt and shipments data. Working paper prepared by the Alcohol Epidemiologic Data System, NIAAA, Washington, DC, August 1994.
Doernberg, D., and Stinson, F.S. U.S. Alcohol Epidemiologic Data Reference Manual, Volume 1: U.S. Apparent Consumption of Alcoholic Beverages Based on State Sales, Taxation, or Receipt Data. Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office, September 1985.
Foster, S.E., Vaughan, R.D., Foster, W.H., and Califano, J.A. Alcohol consumption expenditures for underage drinking and adult excessive drinking. Journal of the American Medical Association 289:989–995, 2003.
Hyman, M.; Zimmerman, M.; Gurioli, C.; and Helrich, A. Drinkers, Drinking and Alcohol-Related Mortality and Hospitalizations: A Statistical Compendium, 1980 Edition. New Brunswick, NJ: Rutgers University, 1980.
Jobson Publishing Corporation. Jobson’s Liquor Handbook 1992. New York: Jobson, 1992.
Johnston, L.D.; O’Malley, P.M.; and Bachman, J.G. Monitoring the Future, National Results on Adolescent Drug Use: Overview of Key Findings, 2002. (NIH Publication No. 03-5374). Bethesda, MD: National Institute on Drug Abuse, 2003.
Kerr, W.C., Brown, S., and Greenfield, T.K. National and state estimates of the mean ethanol content of beer sold in the U.S. and their impact on per capita consumption estimates. Alcoholism: Clinical and Experimental Research 28:1524–1532, 2004.
Kling, W. Errata: Measurement of ethanol consumed in distilled spirits. Journal of Studies on Alcohol 52:503–504, 1991.
Kling, W. Measurement of ethanol consumed in distilled spirits. Journal of Studies on Alcohol 50:456–460, 1989.
M. Shanken Communications, Inc. The U.S. Beer Market: Impact Databank Review and Forecast, 1994 Edition. New York: Shanken, 1994.
Nephew, T.M.; Williams, G.D.; Yi, H.; Hoy, A.K.; Stinson, F.S.; and Dufour, M. Surveillance Report #59: Apparent Per Capita Alcohol Consumption: National, State, and Regional Trends, 1977–2000. Rockville, MD: NIAAA, Division of Biometry and Epidemiology, Alcohol Epidemiologic Data System, September 2003.
Nephew, T.M.; Yi, H.; Williams, G.D.; Stinson, F.S.; and Dufour, M.C. Alcohol Epidemiologic Data Reference Manual, Vol. 1, 4th Edition, U.S. Apparent Consumption of Alcoholic Beverages Based on State Sales, Taxation, or Receipt Data. NIH Publication No. 04-5563. Bethesda, MD: National Institutes of Health, National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism, Alcohol Epidemiologic Data System, June, 2004.
U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division. Estimates and Projections Area Documentation: State and County Total Population Estimates. Washington, D.C.: U.S.Census Bureau, Internet release, December 2002.
U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division. Estimates of the Resident Population by Single-Year of Age and Sex for the United States and States: July 1, 2004 (SC-EST2004-AGESEX_RES). Washington, D.C.: U.S. Census Bureau, Internet release, March 10, 2005.
U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. Healthy People 2010. 2nd ed. With Understanding and Improving Health and Objectives for Improving Health. 2 vols. Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office, November 2000.
Figure 1. Total per capita ethanol consumption, United States, 1935–2003.
Figure 2. Per capita ethanol consumption by beverage type, United States, 1977–2003.
Figure 3. Percent change in per capita ethanol consumption, United States, 1977–2003.
Figure 4. Total per capita consumption in gallons of ethanol by State, United States, 2003.
Figure 5. Percentage change in total per capita ethanol consumption by State, United States, 2000–2003.
Figure 6. Total per capita ethanol consumption by region, United States, 1977–2003.
Figure 7. Per capita ethanol consumption from beer by region, United States, 1977–2003.
Figure 8. Per capita ethanol consumption from wine by region, United States, 1977–2003.
Figure 9. Per capita ethanol consumption from spirits by region, United States, 1977–2003.
Table 1. Apparent per capita ethanol consumption, United States, 1850–2003.
Table 2. Apparent alcohol consumption for States, census regions, and the United States, 2003.
Table 3. Per capita ethanol consumption for States, census regions, and the United States, 1977–2003.
Figure 1. Total per capita ethanol consumption, United States, 1935–2003.
Data for figure 1 are presented in the last column of Table 1.
Figure 2. Per capita ethanol consumption by beverage type, United States, 1977–2003.
Data for figure 2 are presented in Table 1.
Figure 3. Percent change in per capita ethanol consumption, United States, 1977–2003.
Data for figure 3 are presented on the following page.
Figure 4. Total per capita consumption in gallons of ethanol by State, United States, 2003.
Data for figure 4 are presented on the following page.
Figure 5. Percentage change in total per capita ethanol consumption by State, United States, 2000–2003.
Data for figure 5 are presented on the following page.
Figure 6. Total per capita ethanol consumption by region, United States, 1977–2003.
Data for figure 6 are presented in the last portions of Table 3 after data for the States.
Figure 7. Per capita ethanol consumption from beer by region, United States, 1977–2003.
Data for figure 7 are presented in the last portions of Table 3 after data for the States.
Figure 8. Per capita ethanol consumption from wine by region, United States, 1977–2003.
Data for figure 8 are presented in the last portions of Table 3 after data for the States.
Figure 9. Per capita ethanol consumption from spirits by region, United States, 1977–2003.
Data for figure 9 are presented in the last portions of Table 3 after data for the States.
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