Freight Transportation Services Index (TSI) Rose 1.0
Percent in October from September
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BTS 59-08
Dave Smallen
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Wednesday, December 10, 2008
- The Freight Transportation Services Index (TSI) rose 1.0 percent in October from its September level, rising after two consecutive monthly declines,
the U.S. Department of Transportation’s Bureau of Transportation Statistics
(BTS) reported today (Table 1).
The October
increased followed a two-month decline of 4.3 percent in August and September
that was the freight index’s largest two month drop in more than eight
years. The index declined 5.9 percent in
March and April 2000.
The September
decline of 2.5 percent was the fifth largest monthly decline in the last 10
years and the August decline of 1.9 percent ranked as the eighth largest. They were both exceeded by the March decline
of 2.9 percent, the second largest in 10 years and the largest since a 4.1
percent decline in March 2000 (Table 2). At 109.1 in October, the freight TSI is up 1.1 percent from its recent
low of 108.0 in September 2007 and down 3.5 percent from its historic peak of
113.1 reached in November 2005. For additional historical data, go to http://www.bts.gov/xml/tsi/src/index.xml.
For the first 10
months of 2008, the index rose 0.7 percent. The index rose 0.9 percent in the
first 10 months of 2007 before dropping in the last two months to finish the
year down 0.5 percent (Table 3).
The freight TSI measures the
month-to-month changes in the output of services provided by the for-hire freight
transportation industries. The index
consists of data from for-hire trucking, rail, inland waterways, pipelines and
air freight.
The
October 2008 freight TSI level was 0.6 percent lower than the October 2007
level of 109.8. The freight index is at
its lowest October level since 2003 (Table 4).
Despite the
losses since 2004, the freight index has increased 2.8 percent in five years
and 8.4 percent in 10 years (Table 5).
The TSI is a seasonally
adjusted index that measures changes from the monthly average of the base year
of 2000. It includes historic data from
1990 to the present. Release of the November index is scheduled for Jan. 14, 2009.
BTS has issued
a new technical report explaining the TSI. BTS Technical Report:
Transportation Services Index and the Economy is available for download at
https://www.bts.gov/pdc/index.xml in the BTS bookstore.
Transportation Services
Index for Passengers
The TSI for passengers fell 0.6 percent
in October from its September level (Table 6). The Passenger TSI October 2008 level of 114.3 was 3.3 percent lower than
the October 2007 level, marking the first year-to-year decrease since October 2001
(Table 7). Despite of the decline in the first 10 months of the year, the
passenger index is up 16.3 percent in five years and 23.0 percent in 10 years
(Table 5).
The passenger TSI measures the
month-to-month changes in the output of services provided by the for-hire passenger
transportation industries. The seasonally
adjusted index consists of data from air, local transit and intercity rail.
Combined Freight and Passenger Index
The combined freight and passenger
TSI rose 0.6 percent in October from its September level (Table 8). The
combined TSI October 2008 level of 110.1 was 1.3 percent lower than the October
2007 level, and was the first October-to-October decline in 7 years since October
2001 (Table 9). The combined index also fell for the first 10 months of the
year (Table 3). However, the combined index is up 6.1 percent in five years and
12.1 percent in 10 years (Table 5).
The combined TSI
merges the freight and passenger indexes into a single index.
More on TSI
;Note: TSI numbers for June (Freight, Passenger and Combined) were
revised because of revisions in the output data of the component transportation
services. The June Freight TSI is 109.8, revised from the 111.5 reported in the November release. The June Passenger TSI is
118.3, revised from 116.9. The June Combined
TSI is 111.5, revised from 112.5. The TSI for July, August, September and October are preliminary.
TSI
revision policy: TSI is updated monthly with the latest four months’ index
numbers considered preliminary. Each month BTS releases the latest
preliminary TSI, and replaces the oldest preliminary TSI with a revised
TSI. More information about the monthly revision policy, the
comprehensive revision conducted in July 2007 and the TSI index is available at http://www.bts.gov/xml/tsi/src/index.xml
Table 1: Freight,
Passenger and Combined Transportation Services Indexes since April 2008
Percent Change by
Month
(Seasonally Adjusted,
Monthly Average of 2000 = 100)
Excel | CSV
April |
109.5 |
1.1 |
118.2 |
0.7 |
111.2 |
1.0 |
May |
109.9 |
0.4 |
118.4 |
0.1 |
111.6 |
0.3 |
JuneR |
109.8 |
-0.2 |
118.3 |
-0.1 |
111.5 |
-0.1 |
JulyP |
112.9 |
2.8 |
116.3 |
-1.7 |
113.4 |
1.7 |
AugustP |
110.8 |
-1.9 |
116.8 |
0.4 |
111.9 |
-1.3 |
SeptemberP |
108.0 |
-2.5 |
114.9 |
-1.6 |
109.4 |
-2.3 |
OctoberP |
109.1 |
1.0 |
114.3 |
-0.6 |
110.1 |
0.6 |
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary; R =
revised
NOTE: Percent changes based
on numbers prior to rounding.
Table 2: Freight
Transportation Services Index Monthly Changes, 2005-2008
Percent change from
previous month
Excel | CSV
January |
1.7 |
0.4 |
-0.3 |
2.8 |
February |
-0.9 |
-1.4 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
March |
0.1 |
0.4 |
1.1 |
-2.9 |
April |
-0.3 |
-0.3 |
-0.4 |
1.1 |
May |
0.0 |
2.4 |
-0.1 |
0.4 |
June |
-0.4 |
-0.3 |
-0.7 |
(R) -0.2 |
July |
-0.5 |
-0.9 |
0.1 |
(P) 2.8 |
August |
1.0 |
-2.5 |
0.5 |
(P) -1.9 |
September |
-1.3 |
0.9 |
-0.9 |
(P) -2.5 |
October |
-0.3 |
-0.1 |
1.7 |
(P) 1.0 |
November |
2.8 |
-1.4 |
0.4 |
|
December |
-1.7 |
0.6 |
-1.7 |
|
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary; R =
revised
Table 3: Freight, Passenger and Combined Transportation
Services Indexes Year-to-Date Change, 1999-2008
Percent change from December of previous year
December to October
Excel | CSV
1999 |
4.2 |
4.9 |
4.4 |
2000 |
-6.0 |
6.9 |
-2.1 |
2001 |
0.8 |
-17.4 |
-4.9 |
2002 |
6.4 |
5.6 |
6.1 |
2003 |
1.5 |
0.6 |
1.2 |
2004 |
1.9 |
6.9 |
3.2 |
2005 |
-0.8 |
2.5 |
0.0 |
2006 |
-1.3 |
4.0 |
-0.1 |
2007 |
0.9 |
3.5 |
1.5 |
2008P |
0.7 |
-2.6 |
-0.1 |
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary
Table 4: Freight
Transportation Services Index from Year-to-Year
Percent change in the October
Freight TSI
(Monthly average of
2000 = 100)
Excel | CSV
1999 |
104.1 |
3.4 |
2000 |
98.7 |
-5.1 |
2001 |
98.6 |
-0.1 |
2002 |
103.5 |
4.9 |
2003 |
106.1 |
2.6 |
2004 |
110.1 |
3.7 |
2005 |
110.1 |
0.0 |
2006 |
109.8 |
-0.2 |
2007 |
109.8 |
0.0 |
2008P |
109.1 |
-0.6 |
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary
NOTE: Percent changes based
on numbers prior to rounding.
Table 5:
Transportation Services Indexes from Previous Years
Percent Change to 2008 (October to October)
Excel | CSV
2007 |
1 |
-0.6 |
-3.3 |
-1.3 |
2006 |
2 |
-0.6 |
1.0 |
-0.2 |
2005 |
3 |
-0.8 |
4.8 |
0.5 |
2004 |
4 |
-0.9 |
6.4 |
0.8 |
2003 |
5 |
2.8 |
16.3 |
6.1 |
2002 |
6 |
5.5 |
18.6 |
8.6 |
2001 |
7 |
10.7 |
37.1 |
17.1 |
2000 |
8 |
10.5 |
12.2 |
10.4 |
1999 |
9 |
4.9 |
16.4 |
7.7 |
1998 |
10 |
8.4 |
23.0 |
12.1 |
SOURCE: Bureau of
Transportation Statistics
NOTE: The percent changes to October 2008 are all
preliminary.
Table 6: Passenger
Transportation Services Index Monthly Changes, 2005-2008
Percent change from
previous month
Excel | CSV
January |
1.4 |
1.9 |
-0.1 |
-0.1 |
February |
-0.1 |
-0.6 |
-2.0 |
-0.5 |
March |
0.5 |
1.0 |
2.2 |
0.8 |
April |
0.0 |
0.3 |
0.5 |
0.7 |
May |
0.8 |
0.6 |
1.5 |
0.1 |
June |
0.1 |
-1.0 |
-0.2 |
(R) -0.1 |
July |
0.1 |
0.5 |
-0.1 |
(P) -1.7 |
August |
0.2 |
0.0 |
1.1 |
(P) 0.4 |
September |
1.4 |
0.9 |
-0.1 |
(P) -1.6 |
October |
-1.9 |
0.4 |
0.7 |
(P) -0.6 |
November |
0.7 |
-0.2 |
-1.5 |
|
December |
-0.9 |
1.1 |
0.7 |
|
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary; R =
revised
Table 7: Passenger
Transportation Services Index from Year-to-Year
Percent change in the October
Passenger TSI
(Monthly average of
2000 = 100)
Excel | CSV
1999 |
98.1 |
5.7 |
2000 |
101.8 |
3.8 |
2001 |
83.4 |
-18.1 |
2002 |
96.3 |
15.6 |
2003 |
98.3 |
2.0 |
2004 |
107.4 |
9.3 |
2005 |
109.0 |
1.5 |
2006 |
113.2 |
3.8 |
2007 |
118.2 |
4.4 |
2008P |
114.3 |
-3.3 |
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary
NOTE: Percent changes based
on numbers prior to rounding.
Table 8: Combined Transportation
Services Index Monthly Changes, 2005-2008
Percent change from
previous month
Excel | CSV
January |
1.6 |
0.8 |
-0.3 |
2.1 |
February |
-0.7 |
-1.2 |
-0.5 |
-0.1 |
March |
0.2 |
0.6 |
1.4 |
-2.0 |
April |
-0.2 |
-0.1 |
-0.2 |
1.0 |
May |
0.2 |
2.0 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
June |
-0.3 |
-0.4 |
-0.6 |
(R) -0.1 |
July |
-0.3 |
-0.6 |
0.0 |
(P) 1.7 |
August |
0.8 |
-1.9 |
0.7 |
(P) -1.3 |
September |
-0.6 |
0.9 |
-0.7 |
(P) -2.3 |
October |
-0.7 |
0.1 |
1.4 |
(P) 0.6 |
November |
2.3 |
-1.1 |
-0.1 |
|
December |
-1.5 |
0.7 |
-1.1 |
|
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary; R =
revised
Table 9: Combined Transportation
Services Index from Year-to-Year
Percent change in the October
TSI
(Monthly average of
2000 = 100)
Excel | CSV
1999 |
102.1 |
4.1 |
2000 |
99.7 |
-2.4 |
2001 |
94.0 |
-5.8 |
2002 |
101.3 |
7.8 |
2003 |
103.8 |
2.4 |
2004 |
109.2 |
5.2 |
2005 |
109.5 |
0.3 |
2006 |
110.3 |
0.7 |
2007 |
111.5 |
1.1 |
2008P |
110.1 |
-1.3 |
SOURCE: Bureau of
Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary
NOTE: Percent changes based
on numbers prior to rounding.
Brief Explanation
of the TSI
The
Transportation Services Index (TSI) is a measure of the month-to-month changes
in the output of services provided by the for-hire transportation industries.
The
TSI tells us how the output of transportation services has increased or
decreased from month to month. The index can be examined together with other
economic indicators to produce a better understanding of the current and future
course of the economy. The movement of
the index over time can be compared with other economic measures to understand
the relationship of changes in transportation output to changes in Gross
Domestic Product (GDP).
The freight transportation index consists of:
For-hire
trucking,
Railroad
freight services
(including rail based intermodal shipments such as containers on flat cars),
Inland
waterways transportation,
Pipeline
transportation (including principally petroleum and petroleum products and
natural gas), and
Air
freight.
The
index does not include international or coastal waterborne movements, private
trucking, courier services, or the US Postal Service.
The passenger transportation index consists of:
Local
transit,
Intercity
passenger rail, and
Passenger
air transportation.
The
index does not include intercity bus, sight seeing services, ferry services,
taxi service, private automobile usage, or bicycling and other non-motorized
transportation.
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