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Volume 8 Number 1
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Paper 2
Table 4 - Forecasts of Numbers of Passengers and Aircraft Movements
Excel
|
CSV
A. PASSENGERS
(millions)
Airport
Year
2003
2004
2005
2006
GVA (1953-2002)
Forecast
7.86
8.05
8.29
8.19
Observed
8.09
8.59
RMSE
0.43
0.69
1.02
1.33
Error
−2.84%
−6.29%
ZRH (1953-2003)
Forecast
in sample
16.41
16.55
16.59
Observed
17.02
17.25
RMSE
in sample
1.62
2.41
3.27
Error
in sample
−4.87%
BSL (1953-2002)
Forecast
2.85
2.84
3.07
3.49
Observed
2.48
2.59
RMSE
0.23
0.44
0.70
0.10
Error
14.92%
9.65%
B. AIRCRAFT MOVEMENTS
(hundreds of thousands)
Airport
Year
2003
2004
2005
2006
GVA (1953-2002)
Forecast
1.64
1.66
1.67
1.69
Observed
1.63
1.67
RMSE
0.07
0.10
0.14
0.17
Error
0.61%
−0.60%
ZRH (1953-2003)
Forecast
in sample
2.78
2.95
3.16
Observed
2.69
2.67
RMSE
in sample
0.20
0.29
0.37
Error
in sample
4.12%
BSL (1953-2002)
Forecast
1.01
0.97
0.99
1.04
Observed
1.00
0.78
RMSE
0.09
0.15
0.22
0.30
Error
1.00%
24.36%
Key:
RMSE
= root mean squared error.
