TABLE 2 Borderplex Bridge and Air Equation Estimation Results,,,,,,, ,,,,,,, EQUATIONS 1–2 are Air Transportation Identities,,,,,,, EQUATIONS 3–12 are Air Transportation Stochastic Equations,,,,,,, ,,,,,,, Equation 1,"Air Passengers, Total Departures (thousands)",,,,,, ,ELAPET = ELAPED + ELAPEI,,,,,, ,,,,,,, Equation 2,"Air Passengers, Total Arrivals (thousands)",,,,,, ,ELAPDT = ELAPDD + ELAPDI,,,,,, ,,,,,,, Equation 3,"U.S. Air Travel Price Index, 1982–1984 = 100",,,,,, ,"AIRP = f(AIRP.1, PDCGDP)",,,,,, ,"Ordinary Least Squares, annual data for 39 periods from 1964–2002",,,,,, ,airp = 0.84754 * airp[–1] + 44.5066 * pdcgdp – 8.24792,,,,,, ,(17.0174) (3.72458) (2.51809),,,,,, ,Sum Sq ,946.932,Std Err ,5.1287,LHS Mean ,105.877, ,R Sq ,0.9955,R Bar Sq ,0.9952,"F 2, 36 ",3947.49, ,DW(1) ,1.8062,DW(2) ,2.5556,H ,0.5858, ,,,,,,, Equation 4,"Air Passengers, Domestic Departures (thousands)",,,,,, ,"ELAPED = f(ELAPED.1, ELYWSD/AIRP, DV 911)",,,,,, ,"Nonlinear Least Squares, annual data for 22 periods from 1981–2002",,,,,, ,Elaped = 0.82612 * elaped[–1] + 21.0483 * elywsd/airp – 150.688 * dv911 – 324.617,,,,,, ,(7.04844) (1.03279) (1.98167) (0.60654),,,,,, ,Sum Sq ,128582,Std Err ,86.9694,,LHS Mean ,1482.8 ,R Sq ,0.9322,R Bar Sq ,0.9163,"F 4, 17 ",58.4537, ,DW(1) ,2.2001,DW(2) ,2.0029,H ,–0.6211, ,AR_0 = ,0.27511 * AR_1,,,,, ,,(1.06312),,,,, ,,,,,,, Equation 5,"Air Passengers, International Departures (thousands)",,,,,, ,"ELAPEI = f(ELAPEI.1, MXREX, PDCCESTRNPI/PDCGDP)",,,,,, ,"Ordinary Least Squares, annual data for 23 periods from 1980–2002",,,,,, ,elapei = 0.49491 * elapei [–1] – 0.19892 * mxrex –6.81160 * dv911 – 13.6134 * pdccestrnpi/pdcgdp + 41.6922,,,,,, ,(3.23979) (2.54669) (1.48202) (1.15825) (2.61212),,,,,, ,Sum Sq ,445.716,Std Err ,4.9761,LHS Mean ,11.9377, ,R Sq ,0.6691,,R Bar Sq ,0.5956,"F 4, 18 ",9.1001 ,DW(1) ,1.2223,DW(2) ,1.8125,H ,0.5157, ,,,,,,, Equation 6,"Air Passengers, Domestic Arrivals (thousands)",,,,,, ,"ELAPDD = f(ELAPDD.1, CESTRNPI/PDCCESTRNPI, DV911)",,,,,, ,"Ordinary Least Squares, annual data for 23 periods from 1980–2002",,,,,, ,elapdd = 0.91955 * elapdd[–1] + 0.88772 * cestrnpi/pdccestrnpi – 121.591 * dv911 + 115.683,,,,,, ,(9.43567) (0.16531) (1.57280) (1.13256),,,,,, ,Sum Sq ,158515,Std Err ,91.3394,LHS Mean ,1422.51, ,R Sq ,0.9206,R Bar Sq ,0.908,"F 3, 19 ",73.3817, ,DW(1) ,1.7249,DW(2) ,1.6678,H ,0.4568, ,,,,,,, Equation 7,"Air Passengers, International Arrivals (thousands)",,,,,, ,"ELAPDI = f(ELAPDI.1, MXREX, PDCCESTRNPI/PDCGDP)",,,,,, ,"Ordinary Least Squares, annual data for 23 periods from 1980–2002",,,,,, ,elapdi = 0.77877 * elapdi[–1] – 0.11833 * mxrex + 0.21759 * pdccestrnpi/pdcgdp + 14.4671,,,,,, ,(6.00170) (1.89065) (0.01736) (1.09570),,,,,, ,Sum Sq ,493.062,Std Err ,5.0942,LHS Mean ,15.3853, ,R Sq ,0.8035,R Bar Sq ,0.7725,"F 3, 19 ",25.8982, ,DW(1) ,1.6222,DW(2) ,1.7017,H ,–0.4845, ,,,,,,, Equation 8 ,"Air Freight, Outbound (thousand tons)",,,,,, ,"ELAFET = f(ELAFET.1, GDP96, DV911)",,,,,, ,"Ordinary Least Squares, annual data for 28 periods from 1975–2002",,,,,, ,elafet = 0.34113 * elafet[–1] + 0.00576 * gdp96 – 6.9705 * dv911 – 25.2374,,,,,, ,(2.02867) (4.38056) (3.70933) (4.19841) ,,,,,, ,Sum Sq ,89.6066,Std Err ,2.1717,LHS Mean ,20.8295, ,R Sq ,0.9687,R Bar Sq ,0.9637,"F 3, 19",195.943, ,DW(1) ,1.4562,DW(2) ,1.8892,H ,2.0793, ,,,,,,, Equation 9,"Air Freight, Inbound (thousand tons)",,,,,, ,"ELAFDT = f(ELAFDT.1, ELYLP/PDCCESTRNPI, ELGMP96, DV911)",,,,,, ,"Ordinary Least Squares, annual data for 23 periods from 1980–2002",,,,,, ,elafdt = 0.41934 * elafdt[–1] + 0.00034 * elylp/pdccestrnpi + 5.25436 * elgmp96 – 5.90542 * dv911 – 43.0747,,,,,, ,(4.22055) (0.30584) (3.24465) (3.66921) (4.5494),,,,,, ,Sum Sq ,62.8499,Std Err ,1.9073,,LHS Mean ,26.7198 ,R Sq ,0.99,R Bar Sq ,0.9871,"F 5, 17 ",337.956, ,DW(1) ,1.8939,DW(2) ,2.3568,H ,0.1479, ,MA_0 = – 0.93588 * MA_1,,,,,, ,,(3.38261),,,,, ,,,,,,, Equation 10,Air Mail Price Index (1996 = 100),,,,,, ,"MAILP = f(MAILP.1, PDCGDP)",,,,,, ,"Ordinary Least Squares, annual data for 39 periods from 1964–2002",,,,,, ,mailp = 0.06430 * mailp[–1] + 32.1832 * pdcgdp – 3.01038,,,,,, , (0.43204) (6.34350) (4.71268),,,,,, ,Sum Sq ,21.9588,Std Err ,0.781,LHS Mean ,19.2099, ,R Sq ,0.9946,R Bar Sq ,0.9943,"F 2, 36 ",3299.64, ,DW(1) ,1.9237,DW(2) ,2.1208,H ,0.4443, ,,,,,,, Equation 11,"Air Mail, Outbound (thousand tons)",,,,,, ,"ELAME = f(ELAME.1, ELGMP96, MAILP/PDCGDP, DV911)",,,,,, ,"Ordinary Least Squares, annual data for 28 periods from 1975–2002",,,,,, ,elame = 0.65473 * elame[–1] + 0.04247 * elgmp96 – 0.01800 * mailp/pdcgdp – 1.14069 * dv911 + 0.75765,,,,,, , (3.94033) (1.44456) (0.54124) (6.30882) (0.92028),,,,,, ,Sum Sq ,1.0553,Std Err ,0.2142,LHS Mean ,1.7473, ,R Sq ,0.7345,R Bar Sq ,0.6883,"F 4, 23 ",15.9039, ,DW(1) ,1.943,DW(2) ,2.1283,H ,0.1106, ,,,,,,, Equation 12,"Airmail, Inbound (thousand tons)",,,,,, ,"ELAMD = f(ELAMD.1, ELGMP96, MAILP/PDCGDP, DV911)",,,,,, ,"Ordinary Least Squares, annual data for 28 periods from 1975–2002",,,,,, ,elamd = 0.83160 * elamd[–1] + 0.06354 * elgmp96 + 0.01042 * mailp/pdcgdp – 1.44147 * dv911 – 0.40496,,,,,, ,(6.21740) (0.95369) (0.14702) (3.70439) (0.22777),,,,,, ,Sum Sq ,4.8725,Std Err ,0.4603,LHS Mean ,2.8202, ,R Sq ,0.7252,R Bar Sq ,0.6774,"F 4, 23 ",15.1713, ,DW(1) ,1.6837,DW(2) ,1.8787,H ,1.0486, ,,,,,,, EQUATIONS 13–15 are International Bridge Identities,,,,,,, EQUATIONS 16–23 are International Bridge Stochastic Equations,,,,,,, ,,,,,,, Equation 13,"International Bridges, Total Cargo Vehicles (millions)",,,,,, ,ELBTT = ELBAT + ELBYT,,,,,, ,,,,,,, Equation 14,"International Bridges, Total Light Vehicles (millions)",,,,,, ,ELBTC = ELBAC + ELBDC + ELBYC + ELBPC,,,,,, ,,,,,,, Equation 15,"International Bridges, Total Pedestrians (millions)",,,,,, ,ELBTW = ELBAW + ELBYW + ELBPW,,,,,, ,,,,,,, Equation 16,"Bridge of the Americas, Cargo Vehicles (millions)",,,,,, ,"ELBAT = f(ELBAT.1, CJMQM, DV911)",,,,,, ,"Ordinary Least Squares, annual data for 26 periods from 1977–2002",,,,,, ,elbat = 0.72275 * elbat[–1] + 0.00042 * cjmqm – 0.01454 * dv911 + 0.02716,,,,,, ,(5.27650) (1.53320) (0.31027) (1.06493) ,,,,,, ,Sum Sq ,0.0733,Std Err ,0.0577,LHS Mean ,0.2438, ,R Sq ,0.8138,R Bar Sq ,0.7885,"F 3, 22 ",32.0614, ,DW(1) ,1.7214,DW(2) ,2.0725,H ,0.9385, ,,,,,,, Equation 17,"Bridge of the Americas, Light Vehicles (millions)",,,,,, ,"ELBAC = f(MXREX, ELPPOP.1 + CJPOP.1, DV911)",,,,,, ,"Ordinary Least Squares, annual data for 26 periods from 1977–2002 ",,,,,, ,elbac = –0.01704 * mxrex + 0.00165 * elppop[–1] + cjpop[–1] – 2.44885 * dv911 + 6.78609,,,,,, ,(2.12403) (3.23975) (4.05759) (6.36514),,,,,, ,Sum Sq ,10.9309,Std Err ,0.7049,LHS Mean ,7.1934, ,R Sq ,0.4886,R Bar Sq ,0.4189,"F 3, 22 ",7.0068, ,DW(1) ,1.6757,DW(2) ,1.9535,,, ,,,,,,, Equation 18,"Bridge of the Americas, Pedestrians (millions)",,,,,, ,"ELBAW = f(ELBAW.1, CJMQM, DV911)",,,,,, ,"Ordinary Least Squares, annual data for 26 periods from 1977–2002",,,,,, ,elbaw = 0.36724 * elbaw[-1] + 0.00047 * cjmqm + 0.33277 * dv911 + 0.30128,,,,,, ,(2.33034) (1.32460) (3.45088) (2.99741),,,,,, ,Sum Sq ,0.3336,Std Err ,0.1179,LHS Mean ,0.5942, ,R Sq ,0.5671,R Bar Sq ,0.513,"F 3, 24 ",10.4817, ,DW(1) ,1.5787,DW(2) ,1.6586,H,0.9508, ,,,,,,, Equation 19,"Paso del Norte Bridge, Light Vehicles (millions)",,,,,, ,"ELBPC = f(ELBPC.1, ELPPOP.1+CJPOP.1, MXREX, DV911)",,,,,, ,"Ordinary Least Squares, annual data for 33 periods from 1970–2002 ",,,,,, ,elbpc = 0.50442 * elbpc[–1] + 0.00001 * elppop[–1] + cjpop[–1] + 0.00141 * mxrex – 0.48639 * dv911 + 2.14509,,,,,, ,(3.00439) (0.03346) (0.30880) (1.33118) (2.55494),,,,,, ,Sum Sq ,5.2607,Std Err ,0.4335,LHS Mean ,4.5782, ,R Sq ,0.2961,R Bar Sq ,0.1955,"F 4, 28 ",2.9441, ,DW(1) ,1.7126,DW(2) ,2.4887,H ,2.6796, ,,,,,,, Equation 20,"Paso del Norte Bridge, Pedestrians (millions)",,,,,, ,"ELBPW = f(ELBPW.1, CJMQM, DV911)",,,,,, ,"Ordinary Least Squares, annual data for 33 periods from 1970–2002",,,,,, ,elbpw = 0.59209 * elbpw[–1] + 0.00113 * cjmqm + 1.35238 * dv911 + 1.79973,,,,,, ,(4.29580) (0.47648) (2.15409) (2.25472) ,,,,,, ,Sum Sq ,13.9889,Std Err ,0.7635,LHS Mean ,4.9874, ,R Sq ,0.5408,R Bar Sq ,0.4834,"F 3, 24 ",9.4228, ,DW(1) ,1.5463,DW(2) ,1.9588,H ,1.4861, ,,,,,,, Equation 21,"Ysleta-Zaragoza Bridge, Cargo Vehicles (millions)",,,,,, ,"ELBYT = f(ELBYT.1, CJMQM, MXREX, DV911)",,,,,, ,"Ordinary Least Squares, annual data for 33 periods from 1970–2002",,,,,, ,elbyt = 0.89245 * elbyt[–1] + 0.00033 * cjmqm – 0.00046 * mxrex – 0.04697 * dv911 + 0.03436,,,,,, ,(10.9453) (2.39713) (1.60623) (2.17479) (1.33619),,,,,, ,Sum Sq ,0.018,Std Err ,0.0253,LHS Mean ,0.1041, ,R Sq ,0.9691,R Bar Sq ,0.9646,"F 4, 28 ",219.208, ,DW(1) ,1.6956,DW(2) ,2.4523,H ,0.9429, ,,,,,,, Equation 22,"Ysleta-Zaragoza Bridge, Light Vehicles (millions)",,,,,, ,"ELBYC = f(ELBYC.1, CJPOP.1, DV911)",,,,,, ,"Nonlinear Least Squares, annual data for 33 periods from 1970–2002",,,,,, ,elbyc = 0.73020 * elbyc[–1] + 0.00109 * cjppop[–1] – 0.27012 * dv911 + 0.17834,,,,,, ,(4.67118) (2.31758) (1.59233) (1.39335) ,,,,,, ,Sum Sq ,0.7507,Std Err ,0.1769,LHS Mean ,2.2453, ,R Sq ,0.9585,R Bar Sq ,0.9533,"F 3, 24 ",184.796, ,DW(1) ,1.5615,DW(2) ,2.0065,H ,1.9514, ,MA_0 = 0.20841 * MA_1,,,,,, ,,(0.75853),,,,, ,,,,,,, Equation 23,"Ysleta-Zaragoza Bridge, Pedestrians (millions)",,,,,, ,"ELBYW = f(ELBYW.1, MXREX, CJMQM, DV911)",,,,,, ,"Ordinary Least Squares, annual data for 33 periods from 1970–2002",,,,,, ,elbyw = 0.82936 * elbyw[–1] + 0.00143 * mxrex + 0.00020 * cjmqm + 0.25096 * dv911 – 0.11255,,,,,, ,(7.42629) (2.26824) (0.83996) (5.25357) (1.92377),,,,,, ,Sum Sq ,0.0931,Std Err ,0.0577,LHS Mean ,0.2314, ,R Sq ,0.9226,R Bar Sq ,0.9116,"F 4, 28 ",83.464, ,DW(1) ,2.07,DW(2) ,1.9894,H ,–1.0059, ,,,,,,, ,,,,,,,