Freight Transportation Services Index (TSI) Fell 0.1 Percent in April from March
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BTS 27-07
Dave Smallen
202-366-5568 |
|
Wednesday, June 13, 2007 - The Freight Transportation
Services Index (TSI) fell 0.1 percent in April from its March level, falling
after a one-month rise, the U.S. Department of Transportation's Bureau of
Transportation Statistics (BTS) reported today (Table 1).
The
April decline was the fourth in the last seven months (Table 2). The freight TSI is down 3.5 percent from its peak of
112.8 first achieved in January 2005 but up 1.8 percent from its recent low of
107.1 in November 2006.
The freight TSI measures the
month-to-month changes in the output of services provided by the for-hire freight
transportation industries. The index
consists of data from for-hire trucking, rail, inland waterways, pipelines and
air freight.
For the
year-to-date, the freight TSI rose 1.2 percent, compared to a 1.2 percent drop
during the December-to-April period in 2006 (Table 3).
The
April freight TSI of 108.9 was down 0.6 percent from its April 2006 level and
down 3.2 percent from its April 2005 level (Table 4).
Despite
the recent declines, the freight index has increased 9.5 percent in five years
and 17.8 percent in 10 years (Table 5).
The index includes historic data
from 1990 to the present. The TSI is still under development and is
considered experimental. The seasonally adjusted index measures changes
from the monthly average of the base year of 2000. For additional historical
data prior to 2004, go to http://www.bts.gov/xml/tsi/src/index.xml. Release of the May index is scheduled for July 11.
Transportation Services
Index for Passengers
The TSI for passengers rose 0.7
percent in April from the March level, rising for the second consecutive month (Table
6). The Passenger TSI April 2007 level
of 114.6 was 2.7 percent higher than the April 2006 level, the fourth
consecutive annual increase since consecutive declines in 2002 and 2003 (Table 7).
Year-to-date, the passenger TSI declined 0.1 percent, ending a string of
December-to-April increases that began in 2004 (Table 3). The passenger index is up 22.6 percent in
five years and 30.7 percent in 10 years (Table 5).
The passenger
TSI measures the month-to-month changes in the output of services provided by
the for-hire passenger transportation industries. The seasonally adjusted index consists of
data from local transit, intercity rail and air.
Combined Freight and Passenger Index
The combined freight and passenger TSI
was flat between April and March, following a one-month rise (Table 8). The
combined TSI April 2007 level of 111.0 was 0.5 percent higher than the April
2006 level, but failed to regain its April 2005 level after last year's decline (Table 9). Year-to-date, the combined
TSI rose 1.3 percent and has not declined in the December-to-April period since
2003 (Table 3). The combined index is up 13.7 percent in five years and 21.9
percent in 10 years (Table 5).
The combined TSI
merges the freight and passenger indexes into a single seasonally adjusted
index of the month-to-month changes in the output of services provided by the
for-hire transportation industries.
More on TSI
NOTE:TSI numbers for December 2006 (Freight, Passenger and
Combined) were revised because of revisions in the output data of the component
transportation services. The December Freight TSI is 107.7, revised from the 108.4
reported in the May release. The December Passenger TSI is 114.7, revised from 112.4.
The December combined TSI is 109.6, revised from 110.1. The TSI for January, February,
March and April are preliminary.
TSI revision policy: TSI
is updated monthly with the latest four months' index numbers considered
preliminary. Each month BTS releases the latest preliminary TSI, and
replaces the oldest preliminary TSI with a revised TSI. More information
about the revision policy and the TSI index is available at http://www.bts.gov/xml/tsi/src/index.xml.
Table 1: Freight,
Passenger and Combined Transportation Services Indexes Since October 2006
Percent Change by
Month
(Seasonally Adjusted,
Monthly Average of 2000 = 100)
Excel | CSV
October |
108.5 |
-0.1 |
113.5 |
0.3 |
110.0 |
0.0 |
November |
107.1 |
-1.4 |
113.5 |
0.0 |
108.8 |
-1.0 |
DecemberR |
107.7 |
0.6 |
114.7 |
1.1 |
109.6 |
0.7 |
JanuaryP |
107.9 |
0.2 |
111.4 |
-2.9 |
109.5 |
-0.1 |
FebruaryP |
107.7 |
-0.2 |
111.0 |
-0.3 |
109.2 |
-0.3 |
MarchP |
109.1 |
1.3 |
113.8 |
2.5 |
111.0 |
1.6 |
AprilP |
108.9 |
-0.1 |
114.6 |
0.7 |
111.0 |
0.0 |
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary; R = revised
NOTE: Percent changes based on numbers prior to rounding.
Table 2: Freight
Transportation Services Index Monthly Changes, 2004-2007
Percent change from
previous month
Excel | CSV
January |
-1.6 |
1.4 |
0.2 |
(P) 0.2 |
February |
2.6 |
-1.2 |
-1.3 |
(P) -0.2 |
March |
0.9 |
1.0 |
0.9 |
(P) 1.3 |
April |
0.6 |
0.0 |
-0.9 |
(P) -0.1 |
May |
-0.3 |
0.2 |
2.1 |
|
June |
0.8 |
-0.5 |
-0.3 |
|
July |
-0.5 |
-0.5 |
-0.8 |
|
August |
-0.6 |
0.4 |
-2.7 |
|
September |
0.5 |
-1.3 |
0.8 |
|
October |
-0.5 |
-0.6 |
-0.1 |
|
November |
1.3 |
2.0 |
-1.4 |
|
December |
-0.4 |
-1.1 |
(R) 0.6 |
|
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary; R = revised
Table 3: Freight, Passenger and Combined Transportation
Services Indexes Year-to Date Change, 1998-2007
Percent change from December of previous year
December to April
Excel | CSV
1998 |
3.6 |
0.5 |
2.6 |
1999 |
2.3 |
1.8 |
2.1 |
2000 |
-6.9 |
4.2 |
-3.7 |
2001 |
0.9 |
0.6 |
0.8 |
2002 |
2.3 |
4.2 |
2.8 |
2003 |
-0.6 |
-7.3 |
-2.5 |
2004 |
2.5 |
3.1 |
2.7 |
2005 |
1.2 |
2.3 |
1.5 |
2006 |
-1.2 |
2.0 |
0.0 |
2007P |
1.2 |
-0.1 |
1.3 |
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary
Table 4: Freight
Transportation Services Index from Year-to-Year
Percent change in the April
Freight TSI
(Monthly average of
2000 = 100)
Excel | CSV
1998 |
100.6 |
8.7 |
1999 |
102.1 |
1.5 |
2000 |
97.9 |
-4.2 |
2001 |
98.6 |
0.8 |
2002 |
99.5 |
0.8 |
2003 |
103.9 |
4.4 |
2004 |
110.9 |
6.7 |
2005 |
112.5 |
1.5 |
2006 |
109.6 |
-2.6 |
2007P |
108.9 |
-0.6 |
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary
NOTE: Percent changes based on numbers prior to rounding.
Table 5:
Transportation Services Indexes from Previous Years
Percent Change to 2007
(April to April)
Excel | CSV
-0.6 |
2.7 |
0.5 |
2006 |
1 |
-3.2 |
4.9 |
-0.5 |
2005 |
2 |
-1.7 |
10.7 |
2.2 |
2004 |
3 |
4.9 |
26.6 |
11.2 |
2003 |
4 |
9.5 |
22.6 |
13.7 |
2002 |
5 |
10.4 |
13.4 |
11.8 |
2001 |
6 |
11.3 |
15.6 |
13.1 |
2000 |
7 |
6.7 |
21.5 |
11.3 |
1999 |
8 |
8.3 |
26.8 |
14.0 |
1998 |
9 |
17.8 |
30.7 |
21.9 |
1997 |
10 |
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: The percent changes to April 2007 are all preliminary.
Table 6: Passenger
Transportation Services Index Monthly Changes, 2004-2007
Percent change from
previous month
Excel | CSV
January |
-1.1 |
1.5 |
0.6 |
(P) -2.9 |
February |
3.4 |
-2.0 |
-1.3 |
(P) -0.3 |
March |
0.1 |
2.9 |
2.1 |
(P) 2.5 |
April |
0.8 |
-0.1 |
0.5 |
(P) 0.7 |
May |
-0.7 |
0.8 |
0.5 |
|
June |
1.6 |
-0.5 |
-0.4 |
|
July |
0.5 |
0.9 |
0.3 |
|
August |
0.1 |
-1.3 |
-0.1 |
|
September |
0.5 |
2.3 |
1.1 |
|
October |
1.6 |
-1.9 |
0.3 |
|
November |
-0.2 |
0.4 |
0.0 |
|
December |
-0.2 |
-0.4 |
(R) 1.1 |
|
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary; R = revised
Table 7: Passenger
Transportation Services Index from Year-to-Year
Percent change in the April
Passenger TSI
(Monthly average of
2000 = 100)
Excel | CSV
1998 |
90.4 |
3.1 |
1999 |
94.3 |
4.4 |
2000 |
99.1 |
5.0 |
2001 |
101.0 |
1.9 |
2002 |
93.5 |
-7.4 |
2003 |
90.5 |
-3.2 |
2004 |
103.4 |
14.3 |
2005 |
109.2 |
5.5 |
2006 |
111.6 |
2.2 |
2007P |
114.6 |
2.7 |
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary
NOTE: Percent changes based on numbers prior to rounding.
Table 8: Combined Transportation
Services Index Monthly Changes, 2004-2007
Percent change from
previous month
Excel | CSV
January |
-1.4 |
1.5 |
0.3 |
(P) -0.1 |
February |
2.8 |
-1.4 |
-1.3 |
(P) -0.3 |
March |
0.7 |
1.5 |
1.3 |
(P) 1.6 |
April |
0.7 |
0.0 |
-0.3 |
(P) 0.0 |
May |
-0.4 |
0.4 |
1.5 |
|
June |
1.0 |
-0.5 |
-0.3 |
|
July |
-0.2 |
-0.1 |
-0.4 |
|
August |
-0.4 |
-0.1 |
-2.1 |
|
September |
0.5 |
-0.3 |
0.9 |
|
October |
0.1 |
-0.9 |
0.0 |
|
November |
0.9 |
1.6 |
-1.0 |
|
December |
-0.3 |
-0.9 |
(R) 0.7 |
|
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary; R = revised
Table 9: Combined Transportation
Services Index from Year-to-Year
Percent change in the April
TSI
(Monthly average of
2000 = 100)
Excel | CSV
1998 |
97.4 |
6.9 |
1999 |
99.8 |
2.4 |
2000 |
98.2 |
-1.5 |
2001 |
99.4 |
1.2 |
2002 |
97.7 |
-1.7 |
2003 |
99.9 |
2.2 |
2004 |
108.7 |
8.8 |
2005 |
111.6 |
2.7 |
2006 |
110.5 |
-1.0 |
2007P |
111.0 |
0.5 |
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation
Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary
NOTE: Percent changes based on numbers prior to rounding.
Brief Explanation of the TSI
The
Transportation Services Index (TSI) is a measure of the month-to-month changes
in the output of services provided by the for-hire transportation industries.
The
TSI tells us how the output of transportation services has increased or
decreased from month to month. The index can be examined together with other
economic indicators to produce a better understanding of the current and future
course of the economy. The movement of
the index over time can be compared with other economic measures to understand
the relationship of changes in transportation output to changes in Gross Domestic
Product (GDP).
The
TSI is still under development and is therefore considered experimental. It is
being examined for refinements in dataSOURCEs, methodologies and
interpretations.
The freight transportation index consists of:
For-hire
trucking,
Railroad
freight services
(including rail based intermodal shipments such as containers on flat cars),
Inland
waterways transportation,
Pipeline
transportation (including principally petroleum and petroleum products and
natural gas), and
Air
freight.
The
index does not include international or coastal waterborne movements, private
trucking, courier services, or the US Postal Service.
The passenger transportation index consists of:
Local
transit,
Intercity
passenger rail, and
Passenger
air transportation.
The
index does not include intercity bus, sight seeing services, ferry services,
taxi service, private automobile usage, or bicycling and other non-motorized
transportation.
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