<DOC>
[109 Senate Hearings]
[From the U.S. Government Printing Office via GPO Access]
[DOCID: f:30871.wais]
S. Hrg. 109-768
OVERVIEW OF THE 2006 HURRICANE SEASON
=======================================================================
HEARING
before a
SUBCOMMITTEE OF THE
COMMITTEE ON APPROPRIATIONS UNITED STATES SENATE
ONE HUNDRED NINTH CONGRESS
SECOND SESSION
__________
SPECIAL HEARING
JUNE 7, 2006--WASHINGTON, DC
__________
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__________
COMMITTEE ON APPROPRIATIONS
THAD COCHRAN, Mississippi, Chairman
TED STEVENS, Alaska ROBERT C. BYRD, West Virginia
ARLEN SPECTER, Pennsylvania DANIEL K. INOUYE, Hawaii
PETE V. DOMENICI, New Mexico PATRICK J. LEAHY, Vermont
CHRISTOPHER S. BOND, Missouri TOM HARKIN, Iowa
MITCH McCONNELL, Kentucky BARBARA A. MIKULSKI, Maryland
CONRAD BURNS, Montana HARRY REID, Nevada
RICHARD C. SHELBY, Alabama HERB KOHL, Wisconsin
JUDD GREGG, New Hampshire PATTY MURRAY, Washington
ROBERT F. BENNETT, Utah BYRON L. DORGAN, North Dakota
LARRY CRAIG, Idaho DIANNE FEINSTEIN, California
KAY BAILEY HUTCHISON, Texas RICHARD J. DURBIN, Illinois
MIKE DeWINE, Ohio TIM JOHNSON, South Dakota
SAM BROWNBACK, Kansas MARY L. LANDRIEU, Louisiana
WAYNE ALLARD, Colorado
J. Keith Kennedy, Staff Director
Terrence E. Sauvain, Minority Staff Director
------
Subcommittee on Commerce, Justice, Science, and Related Agencies
RICHARD C. SHELBY, Alabama, Chairman
JUDD GREGG, New Hampshire BARBARA A. MIKULSKI, Maryland
TED STEVENS, Alaska DANIEL K. INOUYE, Hawaii
PETE V. DOMENICI, New Mexico PATRICK J. LEAHY, Vermont
MITCH McCONNELL, Kentucky HERB KOHL, Wisconsin
KAY BAILEY HUTCHISON, Texas PATTY MURRAY, Washington
SAM BROWNBACK, Kansas TOM HARKIN, Iowa
CHRISTOPHER S. BOND, Missouri BYRON L. DORGAN, North Dakota
THAD COCHRAN, Mississippi (ex ROBERT C. BYRD, West Virginia
officio) (ex officio)
Professional Staff
Art Cameron
Allen Cutler
James Hayes
Rachelle Schroeder
Goodloe Sutton
Paul Carliner (Minority)
Gabrielle Batkin (Minority)
Alexa Sewell (Minority)
Kate Fitzpatrick (Minority)
Administrative Support
Augusta Wilson
C O N T E N T S
----------
Page
Opening Statement of Senator Richard C. Shelby................... 1
Statement of Senator Barbara A. Mikulski......................... 2
Statement of Vice Admiral Conrad C. Lautenbacher, Jr. (USN,
Ret.), Under Secretary of Commerce for Oceans and Atmosphere;
and Administrator, National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration, Department of Commerce......................... 3
Dr. Louis W. Uccellini, Director, National Centers for
Environmental Prediction, National Weather Service, Department
of Commerce.................................................... 3
Hurricane-related Support........................................ 4
2006 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook........................... 4
Multi-decadal Climate Patterns................................... 5
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Efforts to
Improve Hurricane Predictions.................................. 6
Hurricane Preparation............................................ 6
Prepared Statement of Vice Admiral Conrad C. Lautenbacher, Jr.... 7
NOAA Provided Critical Information and Support Before and After
the 2005 Hurricanes............................................ 7
2006 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook........................... 8
Multi-decadal Climate Patterns................................... 8
NOAA Efforts to Improve Hurricane Predictions.................... 9
Aircraft Reconnaissance Data..................................... 10
NOAA Encourages Everyone to Prepare.............................. 10
Biographical Sketch of Conrad C. Lautenbacher, Jr................ 11
Biographical Sketch of Dr. Louis W. Uccellini.................... 12
Statement of Dr. Louis Uccellini................................. 13
Prediction of Future Storm Activity.............................. 13
Staffing for Forecasters......................................... 14
Hurricane Season Preparedness.................................... 14
Technical Support................................................ 16
Evacuation Routes................................................ 17
National Centers for Environmental Prediction.................... 17
Information Processing and Prediction Cycle...................... 18
Hurricane Prediction Model....................................... 19
Surge Prediction................................................. 20
Hurricane Liaison Team........................................... 21
Tsunami Preparedness............................................. 22
Deepwater Detection Buoys........................................ 23
Addressing the Gaps Remaining in Tsunami Preparedness............ 24
Notification of Governors........................................ 25
Weather Prediction............................................... 25
Storm Surge Forecasts............................................ 26
Coastal Zone Management Act...................................... 27
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Priorities....... 27
OVERVIEW OF THE 2006 HURRICANE SEASON
----------
WEDNESDAY, JUNE 7, 2006
U.S. Senate,
Subcommittee on Commerce, Justice,
Science, and Related Agencies,
Committee on Appropriations,
Washington, DC.
The subcommittee met at 10:28 a.m., in room SD-192, Dirksen
Senate Office Building, Hon. Richard C. Shelby (chairman)
presiding.
Present: Senators Shelby, Mikulski, and Murray.
OPENING STATEMENT OF SENATOR RICHARD C. SHELBY
Senator Shelby. Good morning. This hearing will come to
order.
We are here to discuss the important upcoming hurricane
season. This is an important topic, and one that will get
considerable attention in the months ahead as we reflect on the
devastating 2005 hurricane season.
We're pleased to have with us today the Under Secretary of
Commerce for Oceans and Atmosphere, Vice Admiral Conrad
Lautenbacher. He is joined by Dr. Louis W. Uccellini, the
Director of the National Weather Service, National Centers for
Environmental Prediction. Thank you both for appearing before
the subcommittee.
I would like to extend my appreciation to Dr. Uccellini,
who is making a last-minute appearance, as Max Mayfield was
unable to join us.
I would like to begin by commending NOAA for its work
surrounding last year's hurricanes. Predictions for Hurricane
Katrina were especially well prepared, and undoubtedly saved
countless lives. The work that goes into forecasting these
storms should not be taken for granted. Congress recognizes the
extraordinary effort and critical expertise NOAA provides the
Nation. Emergency coordination after the storm is critical to
helping our coastal communities. When it came to post-hurricane
support, NOAA was one of the Federal agencies that provided
quick, competent response on the water, in the air, and on the
ground.
The Office of Coast Survey mapped the ports for the purpose
of safe navigation so they could reopen quickly. NOAA's Cessna
Citation aircraft flew two to three missions each day, stopping
only to refuel, to provide aerial photography of the affected
areas. The National Weather Service provided emergency
responders with realtime weather updates directly from the
local weather offices to those in the field.
The Office of Response and Restoration continues to help
coordinate and mitigate marine debris removal. These services
directly helped local and State emergency responders
immediately following the hurricanes.
As we enter the 2006 hurricane season, the subcommittee
will be looking for you to use the lessons learned from last
year to make good decisions this year. We're very interested in
hearing about the communication and coordination shortfalls you
had identified during your post-hurricane evaluations last
year, how you have prepared to overcome those challenges now,
and what additional measures need to be taken to address any
future challenges that NOAA recognizes may be problematic. Only
by generating a systematic and clear list of your needs can
Congress better serve you.
Gentlemen, we look forward to your testimony today. All of
your written testimony will be made part of the record.
Senator Mikulski.
STATEMENT OF SENATOR BARBARA A. MIKULSKI
Senator Mikulski. Thank you very much, Mr. Chairman. And I
want to thank you for your leadership in conducting this
hearing. Because you and I are coastal Senators, we are
absolutely, of course, directly impacted by hurricanes. What
you lived through in the gulf, along with our colleagues, was
stunning.
I, too, want to welcome Admiral Lautenbacher, Dr.
Uccellini. Why do I know how to say his name? He's a Maryland
constituent.
Senator Shelby. You're doing better than I'm doing.
Senator Mikulski. Well, if you can get through Mikulski,
you get to Uccellini.
And, also, we wish Max Mayfield, the head of the Hurricane
Prediction Center, well. We want to compliment NOAA on the fact
that, at the Hurricane Prediction Center, they have a familiar
and trusted voice. We've heard Mr. Mayfield over the years, and
I think all of America knows, when we need to know about
hurricanes, it comes out of one place, one voice, and that
voice is viewed as trusted. And we need to make sure that's
happening.
This is a very timely hearing, because it's the first week
of hurricane season, which will go from now until mid-October.
NOAA, alarmingly, predicted that 2006 will be very active. Up
to six hurricanes could be a category 3. What we need to make
sure is that we have the most accurate prediction. Better
prediction means better protection. And we know our mutual
motto is, ``Saving lives and saving properties.'' We know that
it only takes one hurricane to devastate a community.
Mr. Chairman, on Monday I visited NOAA's National Centers
for Environmental Prediction, in Camp Springs, Maryland, in
Prince George's County. It's a tremendous national asset,
developing and operating models for forecasters to predict
where hurricanes will make landfall, how intense that hurricane
is, and how--what is the surge, to predict how much flooding
could either come up my bay, the gulf coast, or inland
flooding. The models that they develop there are the roadmaps
for weather forecasters nationwide. Without the experts in Camp
Springs, the Hurricane Center cannot do its job. So, it's very
important that--and if you went out there, you see that they're
working on hurricanes, helping predict the conditions that
could precipitate the wildfires, and many others. It is, kind
of, the brain center, with the supercomputing model being--the
supercomputer being in Gaithersburg. Why is that good? Well,
not only do--am I proud that it's in my State, but they are
literally out of, in many ways, harm's way of a hurricane. So,
people think the Hurricane Center is in Miami, but that's in
harm's way, and, as you know, from Katrina, when our own
defenders and predictors go down, then there's only more
vulnerability.
So, today we need to know, How good are we at predicting,
what we can do to work with you. What--I will tell you, what I
was so impressed with was, sure, I saw new mathematical models;
sure, I saw innovative technology; but, Mr. Chairman, what I
saw were people--forecasters, mathematicians, all types of
scientists--who read and analyze data. And we're lucky to be
able to recruit them, and we need to also focus on how we can
retain them. We need to make that weather service better,
faster, stronger. They've got the will. Now let's you and I
work together to find the wallet.
I look forward to hearing the testimony.
Senator Shelby. Thank you, Senator Mikulski.
Admiral, we'll start with you.
STATEMENT OF VICE ADMIRAL CONRAD C. LAUTENBACHER, JR.
(USN, RET.), UNDER SECRETARY OF COMMERCE
FOR OCEANS AND ATMOSPHERE; AND
ADMINISTRATOR, NATIONAL OCEANIC AND
ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF
COMMERCE
ACCOMPANIED BY DR. LOUIS W. UCCELLINI, DIRECTOR, NATIONAL CENTERS FOR
ENVIRONMENTAL PREDICTION, NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE,
DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
Admiral Lautenbacher. Thank you, Mr. Chairman.
Senator Shelby. Proceed as you wish.
Admiral Lautenbacher. Yes, sir.
Thank you very much, Mr. Chairman and ranking member,
Senator Mikulski, and distinguished members of the subcommittee
and the staff. We appreciate the opportunity to appear before
you and discuss the topic of the day.
First let me express my regrets for Max Mayfield, who could
not be here today. We appreciate you giving him a bye. He has
bronchitis, and we want to make sure he's ready for the season.
But I have with me today, as you mentioned, Dr. Louis
Uccellini--we'll just call him Louis--the head of the National
Weather Service, National Centers for Environmental Prediction.
Senator Shelby. I think we have his name down now,
Uccellini.
OPENING STATEMENT
Admiral Lautenbacher. But, as we all know, Max is well
known by the public, but this man should be just as well known,
because his work--he's really the head of the brain of NOAA, in
terms of providing the weather forecasts that go out all over
the Nation to all of our forecast offices. So, every prediction
that you see out there in forecast has a bit of Louis in it, in
the work that he does. So, it's a very important role that he
plays, and he does it well, and I'm proud to be associated with
this organization and the people who work in NOAA. They are
very dedicated, talented individuals.
I also want to express my gratitude to you and the
subcommittee for your support and hard work on our behalf. It
has allowed us to continue to support the Nation, as required,
and we're very, very grateful for the kinds of support and
interest that we have from this subcommittee. For instance, the
hurricane supplemental funding that was approved recently has
been fully distributed and is now being used, as directed. It
includes funding for forecast model improvements, storm surge
and inland hurricane forecasting improvements, and the
procurement of an additional Hurricane Hunter aircraft. Thank
you, again, for your support. This support will make a big
difference in our ability to improve our forecasts for the
future.
HURRICANE-RELATED SUPPORT
Just a couple of comments on the--on last year's season,
because of its record-breaking issues, in many ways. From our
perspective, hurricane forecasts for Katrina and Rita were some
of the most accurate ever for storm track, size, intensity,
surge, and warning leadtime, allowing for evacuation of 85 to
90 percent, or more, of the Texas and Louisiana coasts. And
while Katrina and Rita are blamed for over 1,200 deaths, it may
well have been much, much worse, as we all know.
And, as the chairman mentioned, our work does not end with
the forecasts. We immediately responded, after the destructive
hurricanes had passed, by providing the aerial images, by
providing realtime storm tide-level information to emergency
responders, employing satellite imagery to determine coastal
impacts, assessing the hazardous materials spills, surveying
critical ports and waterways, redirecting NOAA ships to
impacted areas, and contributing $4.3 million from our budget
to States for environmental enforcement after the event.
Our wide-ranging capabilities continue to support the
impacted areas even now, with response to spills, maritime
incidents, rebuilding fisheries, and delivering consistent and
timely geodetic height information very important to
restoration. NOAA can, and will, continue to bring more to the
table than just our forecasts. And, again, your continued
support of NOAA, across the board, is critical to our ability
to add value to science for the American people, and we
appreciate the total support that NOAA gains from this
subcommittee.
2006 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON OUTLOOK
Now, for the 2006 Atlantic hurricane season, everywhere we
go, this is an important question. People want to know how many
hurricanes there will be, and if one will hit their area. The
news media--and this hearing, I might add--also gives our
seasonal forecasts high visibility, helping to raise awareness
about the threat of hurricanes. I thank you, again, for this
opportunity to raise that awareness.
The official season, as mentioned, started June 1, and goes
through November 30, with the average peak of hurricane
activity occurring with the warmest water temperatures, from
mid-August to late October. Our prediction for this year's
Atlantic hurricane season is for 13 to 16 tropical storms, with
8 to 10 becoming hurricanes, of which 4 to 6 could become major
hurricanes. For comparison, on average, the North Atlantic
hurricane season produces 11 named storms, with 6 becoming
hurricanes, including 2 major hurricanes. A major hurricane is
a storm category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane
scale, which means winds greater than 110 miles per hour. Major
hurricanes cause about 80 percent of the damage sustained from
tropical cyclones. This year's forecast has an 80 percent
likelihood of an above-average number of storms in the Atlantic
basin. That's the highest level of confidence we've had in a
number of years.
Our forecast for this season is based primarily on the
continuing multidecadal signal in the global tropics. This
year, the signal indicates favorable atmospheric--including
wind and pressure patterns--and oceanic--warm sea-surface
temperature--conditions for hurricane formations.
Another question that is frequently raised is the role
climate change plays in hurricane frequency and intensity. This
is an extremely important issue to NOAA. Our meteorologists and
research scientists in several areas of our organization are
actively engaged in ongoing research to better understand how
climate variability and change may impact hurricane frequency
and intensity.
Last year was a record-setting season: 28 storms, 15
hurricanes, of which 7 became major. We saw, all too vividly,
the destruction and devastation hurricanes can cause. This is
why it is important not to focus only on the total number of
storms. The message is that we all need to be prepared.
MULTI-DECADAL CLIMATE PATTERNS
We have observed that steering patterns for major hurricane
landfalls can sometimes persist over several years. During the
1940s, many major hurricanes hit Florida. During the 1950s, the
focus of landfalling hurricanes shifted to the U.S. east coast.
And during the 1960s, the central and western gulf coast were
slammed by several hurricanes. This pattern might lead someone
to assume, given the recent major hurricanes, like Charley,
Ivan, Jean, Dennis, Katrina, Rita, and Wilma in the last 2
years, that Florida and the gulf coast are likely targets again
this season. However, there are always exceptions, and it only
takes one hurricane, over a given community, to make it a bad
year.
In 1983, for instance, there was only one landfalling
hurricane in the United States, but it was category 3 Hurricane
Alicia, which hit the Galveston and Houston area. And in 1992,
we likewise, had only one hurricane. That was category 5
Hurricane Andrew. The point of this is that no one can tell us
reliably, months in advance, when or where hurricanes are going
to strike. The state of science is simply not advanced enough
at this time to do that. The bottom line is that all coastal
States, from Texas to Maine, including Alabama and Maryland,
Hawaii, and other U.S. interests in the Pacific and the
Caribbean, are vulnerable to the devastation brought by a
hurricane. Our message is consistent. We want every business,
every family, every individual, and every community on or near
the coast to have a hurricane preparedness plan, and have it in
place at the start of the hurricane season.
NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION EFFORTS TO IMPROVE
HURRICANE PREDICTIONS
Now, improving hurricane forecasting is a top priority for
the administration. NOAA has made great strides in improving
our hurricane track forecasting. Our 5-day forecasts are now as
accurate as 3-day forecasts were 15 years ago. NOAA spends over
$300 million per year to track and forecast hurricanes. For
2007, we are requesting $109 million in increases for
hurricane-related investments. We are focusing our hurricane
efforts on improving hurricane track and intensity forecasting
through improved observations, modeling, and the continuation
of a very effective method called ``joint hurricane testbeds.''
Our equipment is also critical. NOAA aircraft, the P-3
Orions and the Gulf Stream IV, provide essential observations
and data critical to the National Hurricane Center forecasters
and supplement the U.S. Air Force reconnaissance flights. The
$14.2 million that NOAA received in the 2006 supplemental
appropriations to improve future aircraft service will add an
additional P-3 next year and upgrade the radar and
instrumentation on all of NOAA's aircraft, an important
investment.
HURRICANE PREPARATION
We encourage everyone to prepare. We work year-round with
Federal, State, and local emergency managers. We educate them
about weather effects from hurricanes, and they educate us
about response issues and their challenges. It is a constant
learning process, and the key is working together to ensure the
public takes appropriate action.
Most preparedness activity and outreach take place outside
the hurricane season. Last month, as part of our ongoing
mission to enhance economic security and national safety, NOAA
led a hurricane awareness tour along the gulf coast. The tour
helped raise awareness about the potential effects from a
hurricane landfall with the Federal Emergency Management Agency
(FEMA), local governments, emergency managers, schools, the
public, and the media, in a team effort to increase hurricane
awareness and encourage preparedness in this vulnerable area of
the Nation.
During landfalling storms, it is essential for the
emergency management community and the weather community to
have one message for the public so that businesses and people
can take appropriate action. Nowhere is this more critical than
in areas most vulnerable to the impact of a hurricane.
In conclusion, the truth is no one knows exactly what areas
of the coast, or which States, or locations within those
States, if any, will be impacted by hurricanes in 2006. Could
it be Florida again? Maybe. How about New England or New York
City? That's possible, but, right now we just do not know. We
also need to remember that a hurricane is not just a coastal
event. The strong winds, heavy rains, and tornados from
weakening tropical systems can spread well inland and cause
tremendous damage.
Having said that, Katrina is a grim reminder that the
greatest potential for large loss of life is from the storm
surge near the coast. The bottom line is that all coastal
States and territories are at risk. Everyone along the coast
must be prepared well in advance to protect their lives and
property in the event of a hurricane.
Again, thank you to the subcommittee for your support and
your interest in holding this hearing. We are ready to answer
your questions.
Thank you, sir.
[The statement follows:]
Prepared Statement of Vice Admiral Conrad C. Lautenbacher, Jr.
Chairman Shelby, Ranking Member Mikulski and Members of the
Committee, I am Conrad C. Lautenbacher, Jr., Under Secretary for Oceans
and Atmosphere and Administrator of the National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in the Department of Commerce (DOC).
I am joined by Dr. Louis Uccellini, Director of NOAA's National Weather
Service, National Centers for Environmental Prediction. Thank you for
inviting us here today to discuss the outlook for the 2006 Hurricane
Season, and to talk about what we can each do to be best prepared to
protect lives and livelihoods in the event of a hurricane.
First, let me express my sincere gratitude to the members of this
Committee. Your continued support of NOAA and our hurricane program
enables us to make the best forecasts possible, helping ensure the
people of our Nation understand the potential impacts from hurricanes
and what they can do to protect their life and property. The fiscal
year 2006 Hurricane Supplemental Funding approved by Congress has been
fully distributed and is being used as directed, including funding
forecast model improvements, storm surge and inland hurricane
forecasting improvements, and the procurement of an additional
Hurricane Hunter aircraft. Thank you again for your support.
NOAA PROVIDED CRITICAL INFORMATION AND SUPPORT BEFORE AND AFTER THE
2005 HURRICANES
Before I discuss the details of the 2006 hurricane outlook, I would
like to briefly highlight one of NOAA's most notable successes in
recent memory--our performance during the 2005 season.
Among our many hurricane-related missions, NOAA has the primary
responsibility to provide weather data, forecasts and warnings for the
United States and its territories. NOAA's forecasts and warnings for
Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita pushed the limits of state-of-the-
art hurricane prediction. NOAA's National Weather Service (NWS)
operates the most advanced weather and flood warning and forecast
system in the world, helping to protect lives and property and enhance
the national economy. In partnership with the Department of Defense,
NASA, the National Science Foundation, other federal agencies, and the
academic community, the long-term continuous research efforts,
including observations, modeling, and expanded computational resources
have led to NOAA's current predictive capabilities and improved ways of
describing uncertainty in prediction. Reconnaissance data from NOAA and
Air Force Reserve aircraft provided critical data NOAA forecasters used
for their accurate hurricane predictions. Hurricane forecasts for
Katrina and Rita were some of the most accurate ever for storm track,
size, intensity, surge, and warning lead time, allowing for evacuation
of 85-90 percent or more of the Texas and Louisiana coasts. While
Katrina and Rita are blamed for over 1,200 deaths, it may well have
been much, much worse.
But NOAA's work does not end with the forecast. This was
particularly evident last August, when NOAA responded immediately to
the destructive hurricanes in several ways. NOAA provided over 9,500
aerial images of the impacted coastline to help emergency responders
assess the situation, analyzed satellite imagery to determine the
coastal impacts, and sent Scientific Support Coordinators to address
nearly 400 hazardous material spills. We also sent Navigation Response
Teams to survey for obstructions to navigation in critical ports and
waterways to allow relief supplies to be delivered and maritime
commerce to resume. NOAA ships THOMAS JEFFERSON and NANCY FOSTER were
diverted from planned missions to areas impacted by the hurricanes and
helped collect data needed to reopen critical Gulf Coast ports and to
assess impacts on Gulf Coast ports and fisheries. Immediately following
the storms, NOAA contributed $4.3 million to the States to assist with
environmental enforcement and search-and-rescue. Readings from NOAA's
National Water Level Observation Network (NWLON) tide stations in the
region provided emergency responders with real time storm tides, and
are now invaluable data that can be used in planning the rebuilding of
the coast.
NOAA's wide-ranging capabilities continue to support the impacted
areas with response to spills and maritime incidents. NOAA invested
more than $3.7 million in 2005 grant funding to Gulf States to build,
and in some cases re-build, their infrastructure and capacity to
determine and deliver consistent and timely geodetic height
information. Accurate land and water level heights are critical to
determining effective highway evacuation routes, levee heights, storm
surge modeling, flood plain mapping, sea level rise calculations,
vessel under-keel and bridge clearance, subsidence monitoring, and
restoration of coastal habitats. So, as you see, NOAA can and will
continue to bring more to the table than just our forecasts. Your
continued support of NOAA across the board is critical to our ability
to add value to science for the American people.
2006 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON OUTLOOK
Everywhere we go we are asked about the forecast for this hurricane
season. People want to know how many hurricanes there will be and if
one will hit their area. The media also gives these seasonal forecasts
high visibility, and this can have a very positive effect because it
raises awareness about the threat from hurricanes and encourages
businesses and people to prepare for what might happen.
The official hurricane season started June 1st and goes through
November 30th, with the average peak of hurricane activity occurring
with the warmest water temperatures, from mid-August to late October.
NOAA's prediction for the 2006 Atlantic hurricane season is for 13-16
tropical storms, with eight to 10 becoming hurricanes, of which four to
six could become major hurricanes. A major hurricane is a storm
Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale, with winds
greater than 110 miles per hour. Major hurricanes cause about 80
percent of the damage sustained from tropical storms. We are predicting
an 80 percent likelihood of an above average number of storms in the
Atlantic Basin this season. This is the highest percentage we have ever
issued. Our forecast for this season is based primarily on the
continuing Multi-Decadal Signal in the global tropics--a climate
pattern that has been in place since 1995. Since the mid-1990s, nine of
the last 11 hurricane seasons have been above normal, with only two
below normal seasons during the El Nino years of 1997 and 2002. This
Multi-decadal signal will likely keep us in an active period for major
hurricanes for another 10 to 20 years or more.
Warmer ocean water temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and
Caribbean combined with expected weaker easterly trade winds and a more
favorable wind pattern in the mid-levels of the atmosphere are factors
that collectively will favor storms in greater numbers and greater
intensity. Warm water is the energy source for storms while favorable
wind patterns limit the wind shear that can tear apart a storm's
building cloud structure.
NOAA is actively engaged in ongoing research to understand how
climate variability and change may affect hurricane frequency and
intensity. For example, climate effects from outside the Atlantic
basin, such as El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), can impact
hurricane formation in the Atlantic Basin. This year, however, NOAA
scientists predict neutral ENSO conditions, which means neither El Nino
conditions (which tend to suppress hurricane formation) nor La Nina
conditions (which tend to favor hurricane formation) will be a factor
in this year's hurricane season.
Last year was a record-setting hurricane season, with 28 storms and
15 hurricanes, of which seven were major hurricanes. We saw all too
vividly the destruction and devastation individual hurricanes can
cause. This is why it is important not to focus only on the total
number of storms. The message is clear. We all need to be prepared.
MULTI-DECADAL CLIMATE PATTERNS
As mentioned above, we have observed that steering patterns for
major hurricane landfalls can sometimes persist over several years.
During the 1940s many major hurricanes hit Florida. During the 1950s,
the focus of land falling hurricane shifted to the U.S. East Coast.
During the 1960s, the central and western Gulf Coast were slammed by
several hurricanes.
This pattern might lead one to assume that--given the recent major
hurricanes like Charley, Ivan, Jeanne, Dennis, Katrina, Rita and Wilma
in 2004 and 2005--Florida and the Gulf Coast are likely targets again
this season. However, in each of these decades there were exceptions.
For example, in the 1940s, while most storms hit Florida, two made
landfall in the Gulf, and one made landfall in New England. In
addition, in the 1930s, major land falling hurricanes were relatively
well distributed along the U.S. coastline--hitting the U.S. coast from
Texas to New England. Consequently, while it is possible to observe
these trends and make generalizations based upon these observations--it
is important to understand that in any given year a hurricane can
impact any part of the U.S. coastline from Texas to Maine. Coastal
communities along the Gulf and East Coasts (in addition to Hawaii and
other interests in the Pacific and Caribbean) remain at risk for
hurricanes, and the business community and the public must be prepared
to respond if a situation arises.
It only takes one hurricane over a given community to make for a
bad year. In 1983, there was only one landfalling hurricane in the
United States, but it was Category 3 Hurricane Alicia which hit the
Galveston/Houston area. And in 1992, we only had one hurricane make
landfall in the United States, but that was Category 5 Hurricane
Andrew, which hit southern Miami-Dade County, Florida.
No one can tell us reliably, months in advance when or where
hurricanes are going to strike. The state of the science is simply not
advanced enough at this time to do that. The bottom line is that all
coastal states from Texas to Maine, Hawaii, and other U.S. interests in
the Pacific and the Caribbean are vulnerable to the devastation brought
by a hurricane. The message from NOAA is very consistent. We want every
business, every family, every individual, and every community on or
near the coast to have a hurricane preparedness plan and have it in
place at the start of hurricane season.
NOAA EFFORTS TO IMPROVE HURRICANE PREDICTIONS
Improving hurricane forecasting is a top priority for the
Administration. NOAA has made great strides in improving hurricane
track forecasting; our 5-day forecasts are now as accurate as 3-day
forecasts were 15 years ago. NOAA spends over $300 million per year to
track and forecast hurricanes. In fiscal year 2007, we are requesting
$109 million in increases for hurricane-related investments.
NOAA is focused on improving hurricane track, intensity, storm
surge, and rainfall predictions. The accuracy of NOAA's hurricane
forecasts is closely tied to improvements in computer-based numerical
weather prediction models. This year NOAA implemented advances in its
hurricane forecasting model that are expected to yield improved track
and intensity guidance for our forecasters. The Geophysical Fluid
Dynamics Laboratory in NOAA's Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric
Research (OAR) developed this hurricane model and incorporated it into
operations at NWS's National Center for Environmental Prediction
(NCEP).
NOAA's Central Computer System upgrade in fiscal year 2007 will
increase computational speed, memory, and storage capabilities. This
allows more sophisticated numerical models to run and make use of
available data, including data from NOAA's polar orbiting and
geostationary satellites. We expect significant improvements in
intensity, precipitation and wind distribution forecasting from the
next generation operational modeling system.
Predicting hurricane intensity remains one of our most difficult
forecast challenges. We are all aware of the improvements made in
predicting hurricane track forecasts and this has been where NOAA and
the research community have, in the past, placed their emphasis. Within
the past few years, the emphasis on improving intensity prediction has
increased. Leading the way, in fiscal year 2007 NOAA plans to introduce
a new hurricane modeling system developed by NCEP's Environmental
Modeling Center called the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting
model (HWRF).
Congress supported this effort in the fiscal year 2006 Hurricane
Supplemental Funding, and HWRF implementation and development is
included in the fiscal year 2007 President's Budget request. The HWRF
will be a coupled atmosphere-ocean prediction system that will take
advantage of the latest atmosphere and ocean observations, the most
advanced methods to analyze those data, and state of the art physics to
produce our Nation's next generation hurricane forecast system. Once
the HWRF becomes operational, our goal is to improve hurricane
intensity predictions by about 30 percent by 2015.
Hurricane Katrina is a grim reminder that the greatest potential
for economic destruction and large loss of life is from the storm surge
near the coast. Storm surge is also very difficult to predict because
it depends on the hurricane track and wind field, but it also is
impacted by bathymetry and natural and man-made barriers, such as dunes
and roadways. A slight difference in track or wind field can mean a
huge difference in where the highest storm surge impacts the coast.
We believe the NOAA Storm Surge Model, known as SLOSH (Sea, Lake
and Overland, Surge from Hurricanes) provided excellent guidance during
last year's hurricanes. We realize many other storm surge models exist,
and NOAA recently formed an assessment team to re-examine our users'
requirements for real-time storm surge information and products, to
direct storm surge modeling within NOAA, and to plan for future
enhancement of, or the replacement of, the SLOSH model.
NOAA's Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory (AOML)
Hurricane Research Division (HRD) also conducts research to better
understand internal storm dynamics and interactions between a hurricane
and the surrounding atmosphere and ocean. AOML's scientists provide
data and information to operational NOAA forecasters for use in models.
Through a greater understanding of physical processes and advanced
hurricane modeling, in collaboration with federal partners, academic
researchers, and commercial enterprises, NOAA continually improves
models for predicting hurricane intensity and track.
To help guide future research efforts, NOAA's Science Advisory
Board commissioned a Hurricane Intensity Research Working Group to
provide recommendations to the agency on the direction of hurricane
intensity research. The Working Group expects to transmit its final
report to the Science Advisory Board in July 2006. The National Science
Board of the National Science Foundation has also convened a working
group of external advisors to review hurricane science and engineering.
The final report from this group is scheduled to be submitted to the
National Science Board in August 2006. Recommendations from these
reports will be carefully considered by NOAA as we plan our efforts to
improve our operations and predictions.
AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE DATA
NOAA aircraft, the W-P3 Orions and the Gulf Stream IV, provide
essential observations critical to the National Hurricane Center
forecasters and supplement the U.S. Air Force Reserve Command's 53rd
Weather Reconnaissance Squadron flights. The $14.2 million NOAA
received in fiscal year 2006 supplemental appropriations to improve
future aircraft service will add an additional W-P3 next year, and
upgrade the radar and instrumentation on all of NOAA's aircraft.
A specialized instrument flown on the W-P3s, the Stepped Frequency
Microwave Radiometer (SFMR), was developed by NOAA researchers at AOML
and provides essential data on hurricane structure, surface wind and
rain rate to hurricane forecasters. The SFMR allows forecasters and
researchers to see fluctuations in hurricane intensity not observed
before. The Military Construction Appropriations and Emergency
Hurricane Supplemental Appropriations Act, 2005 (Public Law 108-324)
provided $10.5 million to the Air Force to outfit the complete fleet of
Hurricane Hunters with this instrument. We hope the first of these
additional units will be available toward the end of the 2006 Hurricane
Season.
NOAA ENCOURAGES EVERYONE TO PREPARE
We work year-round with federal, state, and local emergency
managers; we educate them about weather effects from hurricanes and
they educate us about response issues and their challenges. It is a
constant learning process and the key is working together to ensure the
public takes appropriate action. Most preparedness activity and
outreach takes place outside hurricane season. Last month, as part of
our ongoing mission to enhance economic security and national safety,
NOAA led a Hurricane Awareness Tour along the Gulf Coast. The tour
helped raise awareness about the potential effects from a hurricane
landfall. The National Weather Service forecast offices arranged the
tour events with the Federal Emergency Management Agency, local
governments, emergency managers, schools, the public and the media in a
team effort to increase hurricane awareness and encourage preparedness
in this vulnerable area of the nation. During land falling storms, it
is essential for the emergency management community and the weather
community to have one message for the public so businesses and people
can take appropriate action. Nowhere is this more critical than in
areas most vulnerable to the impact of a hurricane.
While NOAA will continue to do its best to provide as much warning
as possible, it is my hope that each business, each family, and each
community, on or near the coast, will develop and be able to execute a
hurricane preparedness plan. We must all be ready to protect our lives
and property from the power of hurricanes.
CONCLUSION
The truth is, right now, no one knows exactly what areas of the
coast, or which states or locations within those states, if any, a
hurricane will hit in 2006. Could it be the Gulf Coast again? Maybe.
How about New England or New York City? That's possible, but, right now
we just don't know. We also need to remember a hurricane is not just a
coastal event. The strong winds, heavy rains and tornadoes from
weakening tropical systems can spread well inland and cause tremendous
damage.
The chart below shows the tracks of tropical storms and hurricanes
since 1851. I think most people can look at this graphic and understand
that the United States is vulnerable to hurricanes. The bottom line is
that all coastal states from Texas to Maine, Hawaii, and other U.S.
interests in the Pacific and the Caribbean are at risk. Everyone along
the coast, including inland communities, must be prepared to protect
their lives and property in the event of a hurricane. Thank you.
<GRAPHIC(S) NOT AVAILABLE IN TIFF FORMAT>
______
Biographical Sketch of Conrad C. Lautenbacher, Jr.
A native of Philadelphia, Pa., retired Navy Vice Admiral Conrad C.
Lautenbacher, Ph.D., is serving as the Under Secretary of Commerce for
Oceans and Atmosphere. He was appointed Dec. 19, 2001. Along with this
title comes the added distinction of serving as the eighth
Administrator of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
He holds an M.S. and Ph.D. from Harvard University in applied
mathematics.
Lautenbacher oversees the day-to-day functions of NOAA, as well as
laying out its strategic and operational future. The agency manages an
annual budget of $4 billion. The agency includes, and is comprised of,
the National Environmental Satellite, Data and Information Services;
National Marine Fisheries Service; National Ocean Service; National
Weather Service; Oceanic and Atmospheric Research; Marine and Aviation
Operations; and the NOAA Corps, the nation's seventh uniformed service.
He directed an extensive review and reorganization of the NOAA
corporate structure to meet the environmental challenges of the 21st
century.
As the NOAA Administrator, Lautenbacher spearheaded the first-ever
Earth Observation Summit, which hosted ministerial-level representation
from several dozen of the world's nations in Washington July 2003.
Through subsequent international summits and working groups, he worked
to encourage world scientific and policy leaders to work toward a
common goal of building a sustained Global Earth Observation System of
Systems (GEOSS) that would collect and disseminate data, information
and models to stakeholders and decision makers for the benefit of all
nations individually and the world community collectively. The effort
culminated in an agreement for a 10-year implementation plan for GEOSS
reached by the 55 member countries of the Group on Earth Observations
at the Third Observation Summit held in Brussels February 2005.
He also has headed numerous delegations at international
governmental summits and conferences around the world, including the
U.S. delegation to 2002 Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Ocean
Ministerial Meeting in Korea, and 2002 and 2003 meetings of the World
Meteorological Organization and Intergovernmental Oceanographic
Commission in Switzerland and France, as well as leading the Commerce
delegation to the 2002 World Summit on Sustainable Development in South
Africa.
Before joining NOAA, Lautenbacher formed his own management
consultant business, and worked principally for Technology, Strategies
& Alliances Inc. He was president and CEO of the Consortium for
Oceanographic Research and Education (CORE). This not-for-profit
organization has a membership of 76 institutions of higher learning and
a mission to increase basic knowledge and public support across the
spectrum of ocean sciences.
Lautenbacher is a graduate of the U.S. Naval Academy (Class of
1964), and has won accolades for his performance in a broad range of
operational, command and staff positions both ashore and afloat. He
retired after 40 years of service in the Navy. His military career was
marked by skilled fiscal management and significant improvements in
operations through performance-based evaluations of processes.
During his time in the Navy, he was selected as a Federal Executive
Fellow and served at the Brookings Institution. He served as a guest
lecturer on numerous occasions at the Naval War College, the Army War
College, the Air War College, The Fletcher School of Diplomacy, and the
components of the National Defense University.
His Navy experience includes tours as Commanding Officer of USS
HEWITT (DD-966), Commander Naval Station Norfolk; Commander of Cruiser-
Destroyer Group Five with additional duties as Commander U.S. Naval
Forces Central Command Riyadh during Operations Desert Shield and
Desert Storm, where he was in charge of Navy planning and participation
in the air campaign. As Commander U.S. Third Fleet, he introduced joint
training to the Pacific with the initiation of the first West Coast
Joint Task Force Training Exercises (JTFEXs).
A leader in the introduction of cutting-edge information
technology, he pioneered the use of information technology to mount
large-scale operations using sea-based command and control. As
Assistant for Strategy with the Chief of Naval Operations Executive
Panel, and Program Planning Branch Head in the Navy Program Planning
Directorate, he continued to hone his analytic skills resulting in
designation as a specialist both in Operations Analysis and Financial
Management. During his final tour of duty, he served as Deputy Chief of
Naval Operations (Resources, Warfare Requirements and Assessments) in
charge of Navy programs and budget.
Lautenbacher lives in Northern Virginia with his wife Susan who is
a life-long high school and middle school science teacher.
______
Biographical Sketch of Dr. Louis W. Uccellini
Dr. Louis W. Uccellini is currently the Director of the National
Weather Service, National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP).
In his position, he is responsible for directing and planning the
science, technology and operations related to NCEP's Central Operations
and Environmental Modeling Center as well as seven national centers
that forecast specific weather phenomena. These centers include the
National Hurricane Center (Miami, FL), Storm Prediction Center (Norman,
OK), Space Environment Center (Boulder, CO), Ocean Prediction Center,
Hydrometeorological Prediction Centers, Climate Prediction Center and
Aviation Weather Center (Kansas City, MO).
Prior, Dr. Uccellini was the Director of the NWS Office of
Meteorology from 1994 to 1999; Chief of the NWS Meteorological
Operations Division from 1989 to 1994; and Section Head for the
Mesoscale Analysis and Modeling Section in the Goddard Space Flight
Center's Laboratory for Atmospheres from 1978 to 1989.
He received his Ph.D. (1977), Masters (1972) and Bachelor of
Science (1971), degrees from the University of Wisconsin-Madison. Dr.
Uccellini has published more than 55 journal articles and chapters in
books on subjects including analysis of severe weather outbreaks,
snowstorms, gravity waves, jet streaks, cyclones and the use of
satellite data in analysis and modeling applications. He is the co-
author of a widely acclaimed book entitled Snowstorms Along the
Northeastern Coast of the United States: 1955 to 1985, which was
published by the American Meteorological Society in 1990; and authored
a chapter in the 1999 AMS publication The Life Cycles of Extratropical
Cyclones that provides a historical review of advances in forecasting
extratropical cyclones at NCEP. Also in the Fall of 2004, a new two-
volume book: Northeast Snowstorms, co-authored by Dr. Uccellini, was
published by the American Meteorological Society.
Dr. Uccellini has received numerous awards in recognition of his
research and operational achievements including the Maryland Academy of
Sciences Distinguished Young Scientist Award (1981), the NASA Medal for
Exceptional Scientific Achievement (1985), the American Meteorological
Society's prestigious Clarence Leroy Meisinger Award (1985), and the
National Weather Association's Research Achievement Awards for
Significant Contributions to Operational Meteorology (1996). He was
elected as a Fellow to the AMS in 1987, and received the U.S.
Presidential Meritorious Executive Rank Award in 2001.
Senator Shelby. Dr. Uccellini. Is that right?
Admiral Lautenbacher. No, he's just asking you if that's
the right pronunciation.
Dr. Uccellini. Yes, it is. Dr. Uccellini.
Senator Shelby. Uccellini.
Dr. Uccellini. Right.
Senator Shelby. Uccellini. I thought the Senator from
Maryland would certainly get it right. Go ahead.
STATEMENT OF DR. LOUIS UCCELLINI
Dr. Uccellini. Well, most of my comments would be included
in what you've just heard.
I'll just say, with respect to the National Centers for
Environmental Prediction, that the National Hurricane Center is
one of seven service centers. I like to tell my family that,
with Max Mayfield, when they see him on TV--they ask who he
works for, and I tell them that we all work for Max, although
on paper he reports to me.
The National Centers provide the model, the IT
infrastructure, to ensure that the National Hurricane Center
works on time, every time. And, in that light, we also provide
the critical backup to the National Hurricane Center. This was
an issue last year, as we dealt with Hurricane Wilma, that
crossed right over the Center. So, it is an issue we take very
seriously.
With respect to the past year and lessons learned, I want
to assure you that all the model upgrades that have been
planned, and which were accelerated through supplemental
appropriations, have been implemented in time for the hurricane
season, and that we've increased the number of forecasters in
the National Hurricane Center. And we thank you for your
support in that regard.
We've implemented new techniques for hurricane track and
intensity forecasts, and have the workstation software online
to bring those to the fingertips of the forecasters at the
National Hurricane Center. And, last, but not least, we have
coordinated the numerous outreach activities, and we feel we're
ready for this season.
PREDICTION OF FUTURE STORM ACTIVITY
Senator Shelby. Last year was the strongest hurricane
season on record, with 15 hurricanes, 4 of which were category
5, and 4 making landfall. Doctor, given Admiral Lautenbacher's
statement regarding the forecast for 2006, do you expect a
continued increase in storm activity? And, if so, for how many
years? I know it's a prediction.
Dr. Uccellini. Well, the numbers that we're predicting have
been brought forward, and they are less than what we had last
year.
Senator Shelby. Less?
Dr. Uccellini. They are less than what we actually had last
year. But the prediction we made in May of last year, and
updated in August, was also less than the actual number of
storms that occurred in 2005. And one of the important factors
that the folks in the Climate Prediction Center, who also work
for me, said that the numbers that we're predicting right now
are actually larger than the numbers we brought forward in May
of last year. So, the bottom line here is that we are expecting
an active season. The conditions are ripe for an active season.
Whether we approach the record season we had last year is
something that our forecasters are not willing to put forward
at this point.
We will update this forecast in August, as we are in the
middle of the season.
Senator Shelby. Last year, your predictions were, I
thought, so accurate, considering it is a prediction. I know
you can't forecast everything in the future, but do you believe
you have the tools to improve on your forecast and so forth?
Dr. Uccellini. Well, the forecasting of any weather event
is a very difficult scientific problem.
Senator Shelby. It is.
Dr. Uccellini. And, clearly, the more observations we have,
the better we make our models, which are based on mathematical
and physical principles, the larger the computers that we can
bring to solving those problems on an on-time basis. This is
something we have to do in real time, so we strive for those
improvements. So, yes, we do a good job. We have the
verifications to show that our forecasts are improving, but
there are a lot of issues still facing us that we know we have
to deal with, from a purely scientific point of view and also a
technological point of view, to continue to improve those
forecasts.
STAFFING FOR FORECASTERS
Senator Shelby. Admiral, what about the staffing situation
at NOAA, for forecasters throughout the National Weather
Service? Is it adequate? Do you need more? Senator Mikulski and
I want to make sure you have the adequate resources, because
the way your agency performed is exemplary.
Admiral Lautenbacher. Thank you. And I appreciate that. We
have been very fortunate in being able to increase, because of
your action, the number of forecasters in the Hurricane Center
by four, whom we promoted from within the organization. We are
in the process of making sure that all of the backfills for
those people have been promoted, who are fully staffed--that
the forecasting group is fully staffed for hurricanes this
season. We continue to ask for support on the pay raises,
because there has been some leveling off of our ability to
provide backfill for pay raises when they are absorbed in the
general budget. And so, the administration did ask for
increases in pay raises for our forecasters this year, and I
commend that, again, in the interest of the subcommittee. I
think it's very important for our morale.
Senator Shelby. You've got to keep the good people.
Admiral Lautenbacher. Yes, sir.
HURRICANE SEASON PREPAREDNESS
Senator Shelby. I understand that NOAA recently
participated in some of the gulf States' emergency management
workshops as an essential Federal partner in the hurricane
preparedness process. What's your opinion on how the gulf
States are preparing for the coming hurricane season,
particularly with respect to the lessons learned from last
year? Which one of y'all want to take that?
Admiral Lautenbacher. Well, maybe we can both----
Senator Shelby. Both, okay.
Admiral Lautenbacher [continuing]. Both contribute. I have
been down to the gulf coast personally to tour our facilities
and talk to people, and I think there is new recognition, and
very serious concern, about preparing, this year. And I've
talked to several of the State directors. I know that Max does
that all the time. So I don't want to be complacent. I want to
continue to get people serious about it, because I know there
are always a few that don't get the word. But the fact is, I
think, that awareness is much higher, and we're preparing to
help them as much as we can this year.
Senator Shelby. Where are you, as far as helping the people
in the gulf coast, and everywhere, to develop construction
standards for hurricane-resistant structures and shelters? All
of that's important.
Admiral Lautenbacher. It is very important, and we have a
joint committee with NIST, the National Institute of Standards
and Technology, which is part of the Department of Commerce--to
take our modeling and look at their structural models--because
they're the ones that have to determine what these standards
are. So, the issue here is to go from large-scale models that
tell what's going on in an area for winds and surge, and turn
it into something that can be done locally and looked at by the
structural engineers at NIST. And we are very dedicated to
working on that problem with them.
Senator Shelby. Doctor, do you have anything to add to
that?
Dr. Uccellini. Well, I was just going to add, on the
outreach at the State and local levels, that the National
Weather Service, Southern Region, headed by Bill Proenza, and
the Eastern Region, headed by Dean Gulezian, have been very
active in working with the State and local emergency management
and other responders, first responders, with respect to
reacting to the hurricane warnings and warnings that are
associated with them. So, the National Weather Service has been
active in our outreach--they do this every year, but this year,
particularly, has been a focus. And I know that the staff in
these forecast offices and in the regional offices have been
right there all off-season to deal with these issues and making
sure that the communities are ready.
Senator Shelby. I understand that NOAA works with FEMA, the
U.S. Geological Survey, the U.S. Corps of Engineers, and other
Federal and State agencies, to assure a coordinated effort on
preparedness for hurricanes and coastal flooding. Do you feel
there has been significant coordination between all State and
Federal agencies as we enter into this new hurricane season?
Admiral.
Admiral Lautenbacher. I do. I have seen a lot more
coordination, starting with the White House and working down
into the local region. Response plans have been developed. The
season has actually been sort of war-gamed at the highest
level, at the Cabinet level, in which we've been involved. And
we have participated, as Dr. Uccellini mentioned, at the local
level, as well as at the Federal level. So, there has been, in
my view, an enhanced degree of coordination and cooperation
this year. I, personally, have talked to the new FEMA Director,
and we've set up new coordinating bodies to work together to
look at the response that comes after a hurricane. And I'm
feeling that we're moving in the right direction.
TECHNICAL SUPPORT
Senator Shelby. What technical support or tools does NOAA
provide during the rest of the year, to help the State and
local governments undertake hazard mitigation, actions, and
prepare communities?
Admiral Lautenbacher. It's ongoing. It's ongoing all year.
I know if Max Mayfield were here, he would tell you about the
activities that he takes outside of the hurricane season. As
he's always said, the preparedness for this hurricane season
takes place in the off season. He spends a great deal of time
on the road, as many of our folks do, talking to, and making
personal appearances. It is not just the hurricane awareness
tour that I've talked to you about. So, there's a great deal of
outreach that goes on continuously, year round, from our folks.
Now, we have the StormReady Program, which is exceedingly
important. Every weather forecast office in our Nation is
available. They have a warning coordinator/meteorologist, who
talks continuously to the county and city managers in that
area, and who provides checksheets and ways to certify that
county and city that they are ready and prepared for any
emergency event, and that doubles--goes double along our
coasts.
Senator Shelby. I also understand that NOAA has begun
work--and probably has, in the past--in communities to create
and improve their coastal inundation maps. How is this effort
coordinated with updating the FEMA floodplain maps? And are the
NOAA maps being created using the latest technologies,
topography, and data and so forth? This is very important in
another committee, the Banking Committee. You know we are
working on the Flood Insurance Program there. Mapping is so
important to all of it, is it not?
Admiral Lautenbacher. It's critical. And we work very
closely with the Flood Hazard Mapping Program. We provide the
elevation data, and we provide some of the charting of the
coasts, and our models help determine the floodplain areas.
That information all goes to FEMA and to the cognizant parts of
State and local agencies.
Senator Shelby. So, that'll ultimately wind up in the
zoning and building codes, hopefully?
Admiral Lautenbacher. It should.
Senator Shelby. In the local communities?
Admiral Lautenbacher. It should wind up in the zoning and
the building codes. Again, much of the zoning and building
codes are local----
Senator Shelby. We know.
Admiral Lautenbacher [continuing]. Are local issues, and we
work, to our utmost, to ensure the information is available to
all local/regional emergency managers.
Senator Shelby. Do you know if any of the coastal
communities--and I'll speak from the gulf perspective, and let
Senator Mikulski do the other, from the East have they adjusted
their land use as a result of any of your maps?
Admiral Lautenbacher. I am not aware of that. I'm really
not informed enough to answer the question.
Senator Shelby. But, ultimately, they----
Admiral Lautenbacher [continuing]. Take it back----
Senator Shelby [continuing]. They should look at
everything, from----
Admiral Lautenbacher. They should.
Senator Shelby [continuing]. From flood and a propensity of
hurricanes, everything, should they not?
Admiral Lautenbacher. Absolutely.
EVACUATION ROUTES
Senator Shelby. What about evacuation routes? Have you
worked with FEMA, anybody, on that, in the States?
Admiral Lautenbacher. We do work with evacuation routes
with the emergency managers. It's particularly important in the
tsunami work that we've been doing, where there is more
vulnerability on the west coast, but it's something that every
coast should be dealing with. Evacuation routes are part of the
certification for StormReady, so we work with the emergency
managers in each area to ensure that they have looked at the
emergency routes. Our folks are not necessarily the experts,
but they can provide the information on what makes sense.
Senator Shelby. I have some other questions, but I'm going
to now recognize Senator Mikulski for any questions.
NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL PREDICTION
Senator Mikulski. Thank you very much, Mr. Chairman. Many
of your questions are also mine.
But I'd like to turn to Dr. Uccellini and ask this. We hear
about the National Centers for Environmental Prediction. And
what I'd like to share with my colleagues, this is not only--
the Center is not only limited to hurricane prediction. What
else goes on there?
Dr. Uccellini. Well, we have seven service centers that
involve basically everything from the Sun to the sea. We have
the Space Environment Center in Boulder, Colorado. We have the
Storm Prediction Center and the Tornado Watch Program in
Norman, Oklahoma; the Aviation Weather Center, in Kansas City.
We have the Tropical Prediction and the National Hurricane
Center in Miami. And then, in Camp Springs, Maryland, we have
the Climate Prediction Center; the Hydrometeorological
Prediction Center, which does the quantitative precipitation
forecasts that are used for the inland flooding problem; and
then, the Ocean Prediction Center, which is a critical part of
our forecast infrastructure. Many of these storms, obviously,
are over sea, and the Nation's commerce is really dependent
upon the ships at sea, so the Ocean Prediction Center is
involved in differentiating your normal storms from your gales
and your major storms. So, there's this whole range of
activities that are then supported by the modeling and the
infrastructure of getting this global data from the global
observing system to the models on time, getting the information
out of the models, getting the information from all of these
forecast centers out to not only the general public, but the
private sector, our local forecast offices, et cetera. So,
that's the whole range of what we do.
Senator Mikulski. So, first of all, NOAA isn't like a
Government agency talking to another Government agency about
hurricanes; that essentially, for our colleagues in the Senate,
what the National Centers for Environmental Prediction does is,
serve the Nation, serve us coastal Senators that are hurricane
impacted, serve the western Senators in helping to predict the
factors that could be creating wild--a high level of
possibility for wildfires, the tornado predictions, working
with the private sector, particularly with aviation
prediction--when's it safe to take off? What are the weather
conditions, and so on? Is this--so that NOAA really serves the
Nation in any kind of weather impact, from school closings to
airport closings. Am I----
Dr. Uccellini. That's correct. One of the partners that I
haven't mentioned in this is the media, for example. And we
have strong partnerships with them across the whole line. And
so, they access our products directly. So, what I'd like to say
is, basically, from the National Centers for Environmental
Prediction's point of view, all the forecasts you see here and
read about start with us. They don't end with us, but they
start with us. We provide that critical information that allows
these folks to get that information out.
Senator Mikulski. But your customer is not only other
Government agencies, it is, number one, other Government
agencies for readiness, response, repair; the second is also
the private sector, like in the field of aviation, cargo
shipping, lost cargo, a Valdez, anything that could have come
from weather would be impacted; and then also ordinary people,
themselves, who have to know what to do.
Dr. Uccellini. Right.
Senator Mikulski. And the media is your best friend for
broad distribution. Is that right?
Dr. Uccellini. That's correct.
INFORMATION PROCESSING AND PREDICTION CYCLE
Senator Mikulski. Now, what--and then, you do this by
observing, through satellites and land sensors and ships at
sea, et cetera. Then that information comes to the National
Centers for Environmental Prediction. Then it's processed, and
then sent down, in the case of hurricanes, to the Hurricane
Center, who then value-adds. Is that the way it works?
Observation, process, down to the appropriate center, where
even more is added to it, and then back out to the appropriate
public/private and ordinary citizen----
Dr. Uccellini. That----
Senator Mikulski [continuing]. Is that the way it works?
Dr. Uccellini. That's the way it works. And it works on a
cycle of four times per day. Every 6 hours, we repeat that
cycle.
Senator Mikulski. Four times a day----
Dr. Uccellini. Right.
Senator Mikulski [continuing]. Every 6 hours. So, you're
operating 24/7.
Dr. Uccellini. Right.
Senator Mikulski. It's just not like you're sitting
around--and I don't--please, don't--and then, when you think
something might happen, and you all come alive.
Dr. Uccellini. We have to be ready all the time. We're
predicting all the time. We have to be able to tell emergency
managers, or anybody, when it's not going to storm, just as
much as when it is going to. And, we like to point out, for the
United States, which, as a country, has more severe weather
than any other country in the world, that there's always
something happening in this country that our forecasters have
to deal with.
Senator Mikulski. Twenty-four/seven, six times a day, all
these predictions----
Dr. Uccellini. Four times a day. We're on a 6-hour cycle--
--
Senator Mikulski. Yes, I'm sorry. Got it.
Dr. Uccellini [continuing]. Four times a day.
HURRICANE PREDICTION MODEL
Senator Mikulski. Okay, now, let's go to this new hurricane
prediction model. After Katrina, I think we knew you were
working on a model, and this subcommittee, under Senator
Shelby's leadership, provided increased funding to accelerate
the model. Could you tell us where you are in the new hurricane
model and what will the public get for this new model?
Dr. Uccellini. Right. We're in the process now of actually
testing that model on individual cases. And when I say
``testing,'' what's new about the model is not just the physics
that we bring in from an atmospheric point of view, it's the
coupling with the ocean on a real-time basis that is actually
being tested. And our plans originally were to implement that
and replace the existing model in the 2008-2009 timeframe. And
what our plans call for now is to get that into operations by
2007. So, we were looking at a 2-year acceleration----
Senator Mikulski. But what will it do?
Dr. Uccellini. What it will do is----
Senator Mikulski. What will it do--what will the new model
do that is different than the old model?
Dr. Uccellini. Okay. Well, first of all, we expect more
accurate forecasts for the track and, more importantly, for the
intensity of these storms. I think everybody knows we've made
significant improvements in track forecasts over the past 10
years, but the intensity forecast has proven to be a
particularly thorny issue, from a science point of view. And,
in fact, we've had a working group now, working with the NOAA
Science Advisory Board, to bring forth recommendations, and
they're all focusing on increased resolution of the models,
which this will have. So, we expect that, with the improvements
we're working on, and working with the larger scientific
community, that we will be addressing this intensity issue.
Many of these storms intensify very rapidly over a 12-hour
period. We saw that with Charley off the coast of Florida, we
saw that with other storms in the Gulf of Mexico. We saw that
Wilma went to a category 5 in less than 24 hours. We have
trouble forecasting those intensity changes. And then, of
course, the de-intensification as it approaches the coastline
is also a critical issue. And we expect this new model to give
us a better handle on the intensity changes.
Senator Mikulski. I want to come back to intensity and
surge, but just a question. Won't the new model give you a more
accurate prediction as to where a hurricane will come down? I
mean, the private sector tells me that, for every mile of
evacuation, colleagues, it cost $1 million. So, when you hear,
``Oh, they're leaving Key West,'' or, ``They're leaving Ocean
City,'' every mile of evacuation costs about $1 million, in
terms of closing businesses, disruption, overtime for State
troopers, et cetera. So, if we know whether--if it's going to
hit Savannah or Charleston, you know, Norfolk or Maryland, I
mean----
Dr. Uccellini. Yes, we do expect better forecasts for the
track, as well. We have been making improvements on track, so
the delta in the track forecasts won't be as large as, we hope,
for the delta in the intensity forecasts. But, let me add that
one of the issues with forecasting these storms, as you
approach landfall from 5 days in advance to 4 days in advance,
to 3, to 2, to 1, is, you want a consistent forecast. You don't
want the models to be moving all over the place as a hurricane
is approaching land. And another issue that we expect to be
able to address with these high-accuracy models, is that
they'll give us more consistent forecasts on a run-to-run
basis.
SURGE PREDICTION
Senator Mikulski. Well, also, will this give us greater
prediction, in terms of surge? You know, when Isabel hit
Maryland, I went to bed thinking we had dodged the bullet of
the hurricane, only to wake up to find out we were kayaking in
Fells Point, and, you know, I was commuting by Zodiac that day.
Not literally, but----
Dr. Uccellini. Well, it was the Isabel storm that brought
great attention to the storm surge models and the improvements
that needed to be made there. And we are addressing current
surge models, and improving those, as well. But, with this new
modeling system, what we are approaching now is the ability to
fully couple the atmospheric model with the ocean and coastal
model.
Senator Mikulski. Is surge in this new model?
Dr. Uccellini. It will be in the new model in the extended
timeframes. We're not confident yet that it will be in the
model for 2007, but that is an issue that we're addressing. And
when we feel like we can improve upon the existing surge model,
then it will go operational.
Senator Mikulski. My time is running out, so I'm going to
ask--I understand, from the employees, you need about--you
know, in Maryland, you can't go to a supermarket without
talking to five Federal employees, all working on projects,
writing the regs, and so on. They tell me that, really, the
weather--to do the new model, you need about another million
dollars for 2007 to do about six more people to complete the
job. Is that right?
Dr. Uccellini. With your support, we're building up the
modeling group to do the hurricane improvements. And we have
plans for sustaining that. In 2007, we'll have to look within
NOAA to do that, but, in 2008, we are, you know, approaching
that budget cycle and looking to fully support----
Senator Mikulski. So, what's----
Dr. Uccellini [continuing]. The model----
Senator Mikulski [continuing]. The answer to the question,
though, Doctor? Or are you unable to answer it because of----
Admiral Lautenbacher. Let me----
Senator Mikulski [continuing]. OMB rules?
Admiral Lautenbacher. We're----
Senator Mikulski. All I need to know is, Do you need
another million dollars for six people to complete--to really
work to complete----
Admiral Lautenbacher. We're going to make sure he has the
six people to start this when it needs to be started, and we're
going to ask for the budget resources on the next cycle to
increase this effort.
HURRICANE LIAISON TEAM
Senator Mikulski. Okay. This is my last question, Mr.
Chairman.
I understand that, at National Hurricane Center, there is
something called a ``hurricane liaison team,'' and that that
liaison team has appropriate government agencies, particularly
FEMA. Could you tell us what the hurricane liaison team is at
the Hurricane Center, or in conjunction with, and was it
operation during Katrina? And what did it do?
Dr. Uccellini. Yeah, the----
Senator Mikulski. And how will it be different next time?
Dr. Uccellini. Right. The hurricane liaison team was
actually formed in the 1990s, after Andrew. And part of this
effort to get one voice out to the emergency management
community. It was recognized back then that we needed to do
that with FEMA and with the State and local emergency
management teams.
Senator Mikulski. This was out of Andrew. Am I right?
Dr. Uccellini. It was part of the feedback we got from the
Andrew storm, that's correct.
Now, the liaison team contains a FEMA work area at the
Hurricane Center. So, they have a work area. It's right off of
the forecast floor. They have all the technical abilities in
that work area to access the forecasts, even as they're being
made. The briefings that are done for the larger FEMA
organization--and they include State and local emergency
management officials in those briefings--the weather portion of
those briefings are actually orchestrated, led out of that
liaison team in Miami. They lead the entire briefing, and they
include other components of the Weather Service, including the
Hydromet Prediction Center, at Camp Springs, that talks about
the rainfall prediction, and the River Forecast Centers which
predict floods. So, all of that is done. It was working very
well during the last hurricane season. And I actually attend
those briefings, although I don't participate. I have two
Center directors----
Senator Mikulski. So, during----
Dr. Uccellini [continuing]. That do.
Senator Mikulski [continuing]. Katrina, when we all--all of
America watched Katrina coming. I know I certainly was. I
happened to be on the Eastern Shore at the time and saw these
predictions. So, there was a hurricane liaison team. They were
working right alongside with the predictors, the science----
Dr. Uccellini. Right.
Senator Mikulski [continuing]. Community. And then, their
job was to notify everybody to be ready, to stand sentry. And
they were getting this most accurate, realtime, uptime
predictions.
Dr. Uccellini. That's correct. And at 12 o'clock every day
and at 5 p.m. there is a briefing that's provided, and the
whole briefing goes out to all the emergency managers in the
affected States.
Senator Mikulski. Well, are we----
Dr. Uccellini. And that's all----
Senator Mikulski [continuing]. Saying, then----
Dr. Uccellini. And that's all coordinated by FEMA through
that liaison team.
Senator Mikulski. Are we saying, then, that all of these
States were appropriately notified at the velocity that was
coming their way, in addition to watching it on TV?
Dr. Uccellini. The emergency management teams in each one
of those States participated in those calls at 12 and 5 p.m.
every day.
Senator Mikulski. Well, Mr. Chairman, I think we need to
talk about it. Something broke down.
So, in other words, we want this hurricane liaison team.
Senator Shelby. Absolutely.
Senator Mikulski. But, if they, then, knew it, then what
happened? And--do you have any thoughts or----
Dr. Uccellini. I'll just say that I was part of the Weather
Service headquarters at the time the hurricane liaison team was
spun up. We all recognized that this was the way to conduct
business with one of our primary users of our information. And
I consider that a very important aspect of the work that we do
as part of the U.S. Government.
Senator Mikulski. Oh, it certainly is.
Well, my time is really up. And we want to thank you,
again, for the wonderful work that you do, because it's really
dedication. If you don't have the right people, the right
technology and models won't work. And, also, we want to thank
you for the consequence management, about the aerial images
afterward, this--the consequences on coastal impact, the
materials--I mean, what happened out in the gulf, with oil----
Dr. Uccellini. That's right.
Senator Mikulski [continuing]. And all of that, our impact
on fisheries, which we haven't even talked--your satellites
could work with us. So, it's a--it was a great job, and we want
to thank you for it, and hope for the best for this year. Thank
you.
Thank you, Mr. Chairman.
Senator Shelby. Senator Murray.
TSUNAMI PREPAREDNESS
Senator Murray. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. And thank you, to
both of you, for having this really important, informative
hearing.
I wanted to just take an opportunity, while you were in
front of this subcommittee, to ask a question on a related
issue, on tsunami preparedness. You mentioned a minute ago, my
coast does worry about that. And after the 2004 Indian Ocean
tsunami, it really raised a lot of concerns about the
vulnerability of our detection and warning systems so we would
not have a similar disaster on any of our coasts. Congress
responded well. We appropriated $17.24 million in a
supplemental funding bill for NOAA to expand and improve its
tsunami detection capabilities and a number of other things.
And in 2006 we appropriated almost $10 million for tsunami-
related activities. And this year the President's asked for
$21.66 million. So, we're responding to that. But I was really
concerned, because the Government Accountability Office (GAO)
issued a report on these--U.S. tsunami preparedness just this
last Monday that raised some concerns about both the
effectiveness of the existing Federal warning system and the
progress that's being made to increase preparedness in a lot of
our high-hazard areas. And, importantly, the report noted that
NOAA has yet to adopt a comprehensive strategic plan that
establishes risk-based priorities to guide the expansion of the
warning program. Without that kind of plan, GAO said that the
ongoing expansion could result in a diversion of critical funds
away from locations like the Pacific Coast, where the tsunami
hazard is well documented, to areas with little or no risk.
Admiral, if you could just talk for a minute about what
your response is to the GAO report and recommendations.
Admiral Lautenbacher. We are reviewing the GAO report. We
certainly believe in risk-based management. Risk-based
management is extremely important. One of the elements of the
program is to provide the kinds of flood information and first
of all, the coastal bathymetry and topography, so we can tell
what the dangerous areas are, and to get enough effort going to
be able to map all of these areas. This is the same issue we
have with storm surge in the gulf from hurricanes. So, the
issue is trying to get the mapping, the risk areas, set up and
done in a reasonable way, because we can't do them all at once.
And we certainly agree that we need to look at it on a risk-
based management perspective, because it's not something that
can be done instantaneously for everyone in all areas.
DEEPWATER DETECTION BUOYS
Senator Murray. Well, what is the timeline for development
of the--more deepwater detection buoys off the Pacific Coast?
Admiral Lautenbacher. First of all, the buoys are
developed, and they're being delivered. We have 10 buoys in the
Pacific that have been put in, and we have put 5 in the
Atlantic and Caribbean. This year, we'll reach what we call
IOC, or initial operating capability, of deepwater buoys for
both the Pacific and the Atlantic. Next year, we will be able
to complete the bulk of the 39 that we've committed to put in,
so the program is running as expected.
Senator Murray. Have all the existing buoys been functional
over the last year?
Admiral Lautenbacher. We have had casualties to a few of
our buoys, and we've replaced them. We still have one that's
not functional off the Aleutians, and that will be replaced as
soon as the weather cooperates. There is a very narrow weather
margin.
Senator Murray. Right.
Admiral Lautenbacher. What we're going to do in the
Aleutians is put two buoys in each of those stations, to try to
provide the required reliability, so that there will always be
one on station. In other places, we can service them at more
regular intervals than we can in the Aleutian Islands.
Senator Murray. Okay. Well, I appreciate that. And if you
could maybe just, in writing, get back to the subcommittee on
what kind of gaps remain and what we need to do to address
them, because I was very concerned when I saw that GAO report,
and the impact it could have on our being prepared for a
tsunami on any of our coasts, but particularly where I live,
out in the--out in Washington State. So, if you could----
Admiral Lautenbacher. I'd be pleased to do that.
[The information follows:]
Addressing the Gaps Remaining in Tsunami Preparedness
In response to the December 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami, the
Administration has made a commitment to strengthen the Nation's tsunami
warning program. The fiscal year 2007 budget request continues the
Administration's commitment to this mandate--with its goal to eliminate
``gaps'' in our ability to accurately and effectively detect tsunamis,
issue timely and effective warnings and mitigate tsunami hazards
through community-based tsunami preparedness programs. The overarching
focus of this multi-year effort embraces the three integrated
components of the National Tsunami Mitigation Program: (1) Improving
Tsunami Warning Guidance; (2) Improving Tsunami Hazard Assessment; and
(3) Improving Tsunami Mitigation. Financially, NOAA's initial efforts
in strengthening the U.S. Tsunami Warning System have been on improving
tsunami warning guidance. This has included expanding NOAA's Deep-ocean
Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART) network, expanding/
upgrading NOAA's sea-level reporting network, expanding and upgrading
NOAA's seismic networks, and upgrading the operations of NOAA's two
Tsunami Warning Centers to 24/7 operations. Funds provided to the U.S.
Geological Survey (USGS) have led to improved global earthquake
detection and faster reporting of earthquake data for tsunami warning.
NOAA is also expanding and accelerating its tsunami inundation,
mapping, modeling and forecast efforts. NOAA has embarked upon an
accelerated and expanded program to collect bathymetric data along
vulnerable U.S. coastlines and develop detailed community-based tsunami
inundation maps and tsunami inundation forecast models for the most at-
risk U.S. coastal communities (74 total models). By the end of fiscal
year 2006, we are scheduled to complete 8 additional models, for a
total of 17. With sustained funding, 9 more models will be added in
fiscal year 2007 and the forecast operating system software will be
transferred to the tsunami warning centers. We project completion of
this national effort during fiscal year 2012.
In response to its mandate to improve tsunami mitigation/
preparedness NOAA has increased the number of TsunamiReady communities/
locations to 27, which is an 80 percent increase above the December
2004 number. NOAA is committed to working with every at-risk community
to help make them TsunamiReady.
The GAO Report focuses primarily on tsunami preparedness and hazard
mitigation and proposes the following recommendations--all of which
NOAA is adopting:
--Work with the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) Director
and the USGS Director to create standardized tsunami loss
estimation software to help communities determine the potential
impact of tsunamis and identify appropriate mitigation actions;
--Reduce the number of tsunami warning false alarms by (1) completing
the planned expansion of tsunami detection stations, (2)
reexamining NWS's rules dictating when a warning will be issued
and to what areas, (3) establishing a routine process for other
federal and state experts to formally review and comment on the
center's use of seismic data, and (4) setting performance goals
to guide improvements;
--Work with the states to conduct periodic end-to-end tests of the
tsunami warning system, including NOAA Weather Radio and the
Emergency Alert System, to ensure the system will function as
intended during a tsunami emergency;
--Evaluate the TsunamiReady program to determine what barriers, if
any, exist to participation and what modifications are needed
to encourage more high-risk communities to participate;
--Evaluate the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP) to
determine what has worked well in the past and what high
priority activities remain to be completed and to help inform
strategic planning efforts;
--Develop comprehensive risk-based strategic plans for the Tsunami
Program and NTHMP that consider input from states and federal
partners and include metrics for measuring progress toward
achieving program goals.
We will forward for the Committee's review a copy of the DOC/NOAA
response to the GAO Report as soon as it has been cleared. Our response
to the GAO report will acknowledge that NOAA's focus will remain on the
high risk locations. As the GAO acknowledges, achieving comprehensive
community-based tsunami preparedness programs for all at-risk U.S.
coastal communities will require an integrated effort of multiple
Federal Agencies (NOAA, USGS, FEMA, and the National Science
Foundation) and State and local government participation to achieve
program goals.
NOTIFICATION OF GOVERNORS
Admiral Lautenbacher. And regarding the point about making
sure that everybody is prepared--I have been asked by the House
Appropriations Committee to call every Governor to tell them
the status of the program, which I have done, and I have
contacted your Governor, as well as those in----
Senator Murray. Thank you.
Admiral Lautenbacher [continuing]. Oregon and California--
and will continue--I take this very seriously, and we will
continue to do everything we can to provide the Federal piece
of the warning system. Thank you for----
Senator Murray. Thank you----
Admiral Lautenbacher [continuing]. Your attention.
Senator Murray [continuing]. Very much. Appreciate it.
WEATHER PREDICTION
Senator Shelby. I have some more questions, for the record
here, and I'll try to run through them.
What are the U.S. strengths and weaknesses in weather
prediction, Admiral?
Admiral Lautenbacher. Okay, from my perspective, I think
that we are very strong in our observing systems. We have good
satellites. We have good control of the assets that we use. We
have excellent prediction centers. So, the strengths, in terms
of the ability to bring science into an operational part of our
setup, are extremely good. We have good international
relationships. We take advantage of other----
Senator Shelby. How do we----
Admiral Lautenbacher [continuing]. Information----
Senator Shelby [continuing]. Compare with Europe as far as
predictions?
Admiral Lautenbacher. I think we're on a comparable
footing. It's not exactly an apples to oranges comparison, but
we do well. Now, Europe has a different mechanism. They've----
Senator Shelby. Sure.
Admiral Lautenbacher [continuing]. Combined their agencies
to have a European Center for Medium Weather Forecasting.
Senator Shelby. They have different risks, too, don't they?
Admiral Lautenbacher. Sir?
Senator Shelby. Have different risk.
Admiral Lautenbacher. How the different----
Senator Shelby. The risk is different in Europe.
Admiral Lautenbacher. Certainly, the risk is different----
Senator Shelby. Yeah.
Admiral Lautenbacher [continuing]. In Europe. They have
different storms and types of weather conditions to worry
about. But I am always interested in creating bigger and better
modeling centers, more computing power. So, I think we need to
work, in the future, on developing our computing power. I've
brought that recommendation forward within the administration,
as well as within the scientific community.
Senator Shelby. How do you intend to integrate new remote
sensing technology to advance your Nation's storm forecasting?
Admiral Lautenbacher. Remote sensing capability can be
difficult, because there's a large amount of information that
comes in from this technology. So, what we have created is a
Joint Center for Data Assimilation with NASA and the Department
of Defense to take this data into a single combined
organization that allows us to then parse it out and put it in
models. Dr. Uccellini is a key part of that issue of
incorporating new data as quickly as possible into our models.
Senator Shelby. As both of you well know better than I,
severe weather comes in many forms, not just hurricanes. So far
this year, 724 tornados have been reported in the United
States, according to NOAA's Prediction Center. Preliminary
reports show these events have resulted in at least 52 deaths.
I understand that you're working to ensure that citizens are
better informed about dangerous weather, because it saves
lives, saves property and everything else. What's the most
effective strategy for decreasing severe-storm-related deaths,
in your judgment?
Admiral Lautenbacher. In my judgment, it's preparation,
it's people understanding what the risks are and being prepared
to act when they get information. And next, they need the
information, and I'm always advertising NOAA Weather Radio as a
way to get the information.
STORM SURGE FORECASTS
Senator Shelby. During Hurricane Katrina, much of the
damage in my State of Alabama, and a lot more in Mississippi,
was caused by storm surge. In some communities, the water
levels were higher than 20 feet. Can you tell us what NOAA is
doing to improve storm surge forecasts? And how can you
highlight some efforts to improve forecasts for inland flooding
caused by heavy rains during hurricanes, you know, as the
aftermath of this?
Admiral Lautenbacher. Yes, and as we mentioned, we have a
model called SLOSH (Sea, Land and Overland Surges from
Hurricanes), that we use today. It's a rudimentary model, but
we are trying to make it better.
Senator Shelby. Is it working?
Admiral Lautenbacher. It works. Yes, it does work. Does it
work accurately all the time, in every place? The answer is----
Senator Mikulski. No.
Admiral Lautenbacher [continuing]. No. So, we need to
improve it. You have given us some funding to help us do that.
Senator Shelby. You need more funding in that area?
Admiral Lautenbacher. I think----
Senator Shelby. Senator Mikulski was asking you a
specific--I'm going to ask you a specific--do you need more----
Admiral Lautenbacher. I think we have the money we need to
improve that model, and I would like to have Dr. Uccellini and
our folks work on----
Senator Shelby. Work with the staff.
Admiral Lautenbacher [continuing]. The improvements----
Senator Shelby. The model.
Admiral Lautenbacher. The model, itself.
Senator Shelby. Okay.
Admiral Lautenbacher. Because we have some money to improve
that model, and we have some money to incorporate better
models, in the future. So, you have given us help in doing
that, and we are grateful for it, and we're going to take
action on it.
COASTAL ZONE MANAGEMENT ACT
Senator Shelby. The Coastal Zone Management Act requires
NOAA to assist States in managing coastal development in order
to minimize the loss of life and property caused by improper
development in hazardous areas. You know, there's a lot of
horror stories here. Under the Coastal Zone Management Act,
each State receives approximately $2 million annually to
address coastal hazards, in addition to other competitive
priorities, such as water quality and public access. Is the
Coastal Zone Management Act funding providing enough to achieve
the goals of the act, is this just a pittance?
Admiral Lautenbacher. That's a very broad question. It has
worked fairly well, because the object of the act was to
develop consistent plans between the Federal and the State
governments so that we would have a consistency principle
around the coast.
Senator Shelby. Sure.
Admiral Lautenbacher. Now, if you ask the States, they will
tell us that they can always use more, certainly, in working in
these areas. But the object of the act was to try to build a
consistent plan that allows us to develop properly and with
some consistency around our Nation, and that seems to be
working fairly well. The act, itself, is well constructed.
Senator Shelby. Are States afforded sufficient authority to
establish priorities for the selection and funding of coastal
hazards mitigation projects?
Admiral Lautenbacher. I think the act represents the----
Senator Shelby. In other words, do they have the power?
Admiral Lautenbacher. Yes, they do. There is a reasonable
balance for them to act and provide the money for projects that
they think are important to them.
Senator Shelby. NOAA struggled to release funds in the
previous December 2005 supplemental, but we were assured by the
Secretary of Commerce that that's been resolved. Does NOAA
foresee any problems distributing funds from the latest
supplemental?
Admiral Lautenbacher. No, sir, we do not. From the most
recent one that was given to us in December, we have
distributed all of those funds, and we are preparing so that,
when the next one is ready, we will spring into action. We have
set ourselves up to try to do it as quickly as possible.
NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION PRIORITIES
Senator Shelby. As both of you know, we're working on the
2007 appropriations bill--Senator Mikulski and our staff and
members of the committee. But in supporting your overall
mission to monitor and to forecast hurricanes, which we believe
is very important to the American people, what are your top
priorities, just in a nutshell?
Admiral Lautenbacher. My priorities, first of all, are to
take care of the people. We have to recognize that, while we
have these wonderful technological inventions that we use, it's
the skill of the forecasters in using that information that's
critical. I'm delighted that we have a good union that supports
the work that we do. And to support the people that we have is
my top issue.
Beyond that, I would like to make strong representation for
our satellite programs. Our satellite programs are critical to
the Nation, and we spend a lot of time working on trying to
keep them going. So, the increases for the satellite programs
are very important. And then, the sensors and the modeling
programs that we have.
I think those are all critical, and there are increases for
each of those in our 2007 budget.
Senator Shelby. Well, during the hurricane season, I think
you--NOAA stood out as doing great work, wouldn't you think,
Senator Mikulski? And we want to commend you, again, for that,
and we want to make sure that you have adequate funding to
carry your job out.
We thank you both for your cooperation with the
subcommittee. We'll continue to work with you.
We have some Senators that are tied up on the floor that
have asked to submit questions to you for the record, and we'd
ask that you respond to them no later than July 22, 2006.
CONCLUSION OF HEARING
And, other than that, this subcommittee will stand in
recess.
[Whereupon, at 11:28 a.m., Wednesday, June 7, the hearing
was concluded, and the subcommittee was recessed, to reconvene
subject to the call of the Chair.]
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