<DOC> [110 Senate Hearings] [From the U.S. Government Printing Office via GPO Access] [DOCID: f:44330.wais] S. Hrg. 110-511 THE LOOMING FORECLOSURE CRISIS: HOW TO HELP FAMILIES SAVE THEIR HOMES ======================================================================= HEARING before the COMMITTEE ON THE JUDICIARY UNITED STATES SENATE ONE HUNDRED TENTH CONGRESS FIRST SESSION __________ DECEMBER 5, 2007 __________ Serial No. J-110-62 __________ Printed for the use of the Committee on the Judiciary U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE 44-330 PDF WASHINGTON DC: 2008 --------------------------------------------------------------------- For Sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office Internet: bookstore.gpo.gov Phone: toll free (866) 512-1800; (202) 512ÿ091800 Fax: (202) 512ÿ092104 Mail: Stop IDCC, Washington, DC 20402ÿ090001 COMMITTEE ON THE JUDICIARY PATRICK J. LEAHY, Vermont, Chairman EDWARD M. KENNEDY, Massachusetts ARLEN SPECTER, Pennsylvania JOSEPH R. BIDEN, Jr., Delaware ORRIN G. HATCH, Utah HERB KOHL, Wisconsin CHARLES E. GRASSLEY, Iowa DIANNE FEINSTEIN, California JON KYL, Arizona RUSSELL D. FEINGOLD, Wisconsin JEFF SESSIONS, Alabama CHARLES E. SCHUMER, New York LINDSEY O. GRAHAM, South Carolina RICHARD J. DURBIN, Illinois JOHN CORNYN, Texas BENJAMIN L. CARDIN, Maryland SAM BROWNBACK, Kansas SHELDON WHITEHOUSE, Rhode Island TOM COBURN, Oklahoma Bruce A. Cohen, Chief Counsel and Staff Director Michael O'Neill, Republican Chief Counsel and Staff Director C O N T E N T S ---------- STATEMENTS OF COMMITTEE MEMBERS Page Durbin, Hon. Richard J., a U.S. Senator from the State of Illinois....................................................... 1 Feingold, Hon. Russell D., a U.S. Senator from the State of Wisconsin, prepared statement.................................. 153 Sessions, Hon. Jeff, a U.S. Senator from the State of Alabama.... 4 Specter, Hon. Arlen, a U.S. Senator from the State of Pennsylvania................................................... 3 WITNESSES Bennett, Thomas, Bankruptcy Judge, U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Northern, District of Alabama, Birmingham, Alabama............. 17 Cox, Jacqueline P., Bankruptcy Judge, U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Northern District of Illinois, Chicago, Illinois........... 15 Mason, Joseph, Associate Professor, Drexel University, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania..................................... 10 McGee, Nettie, Chicago, Illinois................................. 5 Scarberry, Mark, Professor of Law, Pepperdine School of Law, and Resident Scholar, American Bankruptcy Institute, Washington, DC 12 Sommer, Henry J., President, National Association of Consumer Bankruptcy Attorneys, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania............... 20 Zandi, Mark, Chief Economist, Moody's Economy.com, Inc., West Chester, Pennsylvania.......................................... 7 QUESTIONS AND ANSWERS Responses of Thomas Bennett to questions submitted by Senators Durbin and Sessions............................................ 36 Responses of Jacqueline Cox to questions submitted by Senators Durbin and Specter............................................. 51 Responses of Joseph Mason to questions submitted by Senators Brownback, Sessions and Durbin................................. 56 Responses of Mark Scarberry to questions submitted by Senators Specter, Durbin and Sessions................................... 74 Responses of Henry Sommer to questions submitted by Senators Brownback, Durbin and Specter.................................. 89 Responses of Mark Zandi to questions submitted by Senators Durbin, Brownback and Specter.................................. 98 SUBMISSIONS FOR THE RECORD American Bankers Association, Washington, D.C., statement........ 101 Bartlett, Steve, on behalf of the Financial Services Roundtable, Washington, D.C., statement.................................... 113 Bennett, Thomas, Bankruptcy Judge, U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Northern, District of Alabama, Birmingham, Alabama, statement.. 117 Chemerinsky, Erwin, Alston & Bird Professor of Law, Duke University, School of Law, Durham, North Carolina, letter...... 131 Consumer, civil rights, labor, retiree, housing, lending and community organizations, joint letter.......................... 135 Consumer Federation of America, Allen Fishbein, Director, Housing and Credit Policy, Washington, D.C., letter.................... 137 Consumer Mortgage Coalition, Anne C. Canfield, Executive Director, Washington, D.C., letter............................. 139 Cox, Jacqueline P., Bankruptcy Judge, U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Northern District of Illinois, Chicago, Illinois, statement 145 Leadership Conference, on Civil Rights, Wade Henderson, President & CEO, Nancy Zirkin, Vice President, Director of Public Policy, Washington, D.C., letter....................................... 155 Mason, Joseph, Associate Professor, Drexel University, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, statement.......................... 157 McGee, Nettie, Chicago, Illinois, statement...................... 162 Mortgage Bankers Association, Washington, D.C., statement........ 165 National Association of Home Builders, Washington, D.C., statement...................................................... 177 Scarberry, Mark, Professor of Law, Pepperdine School of Law, and Resident Scholar, American Bankruptcy Institute, Washington, DC 182 Sommer, Henry J., President, National Association of Consumer Bankruptcy Attorneys, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, statement.... 194 Stein, Eric, Center for Responsible Lending, Durham, North Caroline, statement and attachments............................ 205 Zandi, Mark, Chief Economist, Moody's Economy.com, Inc., West Chester, Pennsylvania, statement............................... 233 THE LOOMING FORECLOSURE CRISIS: HOW TO HELP FAMILIES SAVE THEIR HOMES ---------- WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 5, 2007 United States Senate, Committee on the Judiciary, Washington, DC The Committee met, Pursuant to notice, at 2:29 p.m., in room 226, Dirksen Senate Office Building, Hon. Richard J. Durbin, presiding. Present: Senators Specter and Sessions. OPENING STATEMENT OF HON. RICHARD J. DURBIN, A U.S. SENATOR FROM THE STATE OF ILLINOIS Senator Durbin. The hearing will come to order. Good afternoon, and welcome to this hearing of the Senate Judiciary Committee on ``The Looming Foreclosure Crisis: How to Help Families Save Their Homes.'' I want to thank Chairman Patrick Leahy for scheduling this important hearing and permitting me to chair it. I believe I'll be joined by some colleagues during the course of this hearing, and they will play an active part in the interrogation, as well as follow-up questions. America's mortgage crisis is not just your neighbor's problem, it is everyone's problem. It is putting families out on the streets, driving down home values, and sending our economy into a tailspin. It is a crisis that demands an urgent response. Home ownership is a pillar of our society and an integral part of America's economy. But the mortgage melt-down means thousands of families are losing their homes. Millions more are at risk of foreclosure, and up to a third of all home-owning families in this country may see their homes lose value. Why is this happening? The reasons are clear. During the heyday of the real estate bubble, through a combination of bad information and aggressive brokers and bankers, too many families signed up for bad mortgages. For a while, many homeowners were able to keep up with their mortgage payments because home values were on the rise, or because adjustable rate mortgages had not yet re-set to higher interest rates. But many of these same homeowners are now struggling as housing prices have dropped and the adjustable rate mortgages have begun to re-set. Whatever the reason that families may find themselves unable to pay their mortgages, the effect of foreclosure is the same: it's a disaster for the family, and for the neighborhood, and for our country. The Center for Responsible Lending estimated, a year ago, that 2.2 million homes might be lost to foreclosure in the coming months ahead. That estimates now looks conservative. The impact of home foreclosures is not limited to families who are put out on the street. Treasury Secretary Paulson said earlier this week, ``Homes in foreclosure can pose costs for the whole neighborhood, as crime goes up and property values decline.'' The Center for Responsible Lending recently released new estimates on the lost home value that the foreclosure wave will cause for neighboring families. The Center predicts that, nationwide, 44.5 million families will experience a loss in home value because of foreclosures in their neighborhoods. Forty-four point five million homeowners represent one-third of all residential homes in America. These families will see property values decrease by an average of $5,000. Some metropolitan regions will be particularly hard hit. In Cook County, Illinois alone, the Center predicts that around 2 million homeowners will lose value in their homes because of neighborhood foreclosures. Somewhere between two-thirds and 85 percent of all Cook County homeowners will be affected by the 50,000 or 59,000 foreclosures in that county. These homeowners will lose, collectively, $15.7 billion in home value, an average of $7,000 a home. These are astounding numbers. Home foreclosures pose other problems as well. The U.S. Conference of Mayors issued a report projecting the foreclosure crisis will result in 524,000 fewer jobs next year, a drop in consumer spending, a loss of billions of dollars in local, State, and Federal tax revenue, and a slower growth rate for our U.S. GDP. This foreclosure crisis is looming over our entire economy right now. It is time to do something. The government, mortgage lending industry, and the nonprofits who help homeowners have to work together to save as many homes as possible. I am pleased that in Congress, we are now talking about how to tighten lending standards so we won't repeat this type of market melt-down, but there is more work to do. In the meantime, many families are already in a desperate struggle. I have introduced the Helping Families Save Their Homes in Bankruptcy Act. This legislation can help save the homes of about 1 out of every 4 facing foreclosure, about 600,000 families who have nowhere else to turn. Today, a bankruptcy judge in Chapter 13 can change the structure of any secured debt except for one: the mortgage on a home, a principal residence. When this exception was added to the law almost 30 years ago, mortgages were largely 30-year, fixed-rate loans that required 20 percent down, and were originated by a local banker who personally knew the homeowner. In 1978, when this provision was added to the Bankruptcy Code, it was rare, if ever, that a mortgage would be the source of financial difficulty that sent a family into bankruptcy. Well, a lot has changed since 1978. Now, unregulated, out- of-town mortgage brokers sell exotic, ``no-doc'', interest- only, ``2-28'', or other exotic mortgages to families with few questions asked. The mortgages are then securitized by the big banks, sold into secondary markets to investors who have no knowledge of the homeowner or their financial situation. Risk is dispersed, but so is responsibility. In 1978, when a family realized it might begin having trouble making a house payment, it could go down to the local bank and work out a new plan to keep up. Today, families struggle to even get a straight answer from somebody on a telephone about what's happened to their mortgage. We need another solution for families who are losing their way in this brave new world of complicated mortgages. We need to provide families with more leverage so that banks will work harder to come up with reasonable compromises. Bankruptcy has to be the last resort. I believe it is. But changing how family homes are treated in bankruptcy will help hundreds of thousands of families who would otherwise be out on the street. Who wins? Who wins in a foreclosure? All of the money that is being spent so that someone ends up with a home that can be worth no more ultimately than the fair market value? Do bankers really want to cut grass and wash windows? I don't think so. If we can keep the family in the home under reasonable terms, that's the best outcome. My bill would allow bankruptcy judges to work out mortgage payment plans with the homeowners and the banks, and also protect those families from excessive fees. Under my bill, only families that desperately need the help will file for bankruptcy, and only reasonable mortgages will result. The bill will facilitate dealing with each family situation individually, and yet it would provide a method for processing the massive volume of needed modifications that the banks' voluntary work-out procedures simply cannot handle. It does not create a new government bureaucracy, and it wouldn't cost the taxpayers a penny. This afternoon, I look forward to learning more about the current state of the mortgage market and discussing how we might make those changes to the Bankruptcy Code. Before I recognize him, I want to thank my colleague, Senator Arlen Specter from Pennsylvania. He and I have been talking this over for the last several months, and it was his suggestion that we have this hearing. I am glad we did. A lot of attention is being paid to this, as it should be. This is a national issue of great consequence. I thank Senator Specter for his continuing interest, and I give him the floor. STATEMENT OF HON. ARLEN SPECTER, A U.S. SENATOR FROM THE STATE OF PENNSYLVANIA Senator Specter. Thank you very much, Mr. Chairman, for that excellent background on the problem, and those generous words. It is true that Senator Durbin, I, and others have been talking about this problem for a long time. We are very close to the same approach, with one difference. That is, Senator Durbin's bill would all the bankruptcy courts to cram down, or modify the principal obligation. My bill would deal only with the interest. My thinking has been that on the adjustable rate mortgage, people didn't really know what they were doing and they were getting involved in financial transactions which were a surprise to them, where they expected to pay a given amount and then suddenly they found the adjustable rates are much higher and something they could not afford. Some of these transactions, I think, border, if not cross the line, of fraud and misrepresenting to homeowners what was going to happen. With the principal sum, it's a little different. I think they knew what the principal sum was. But it is really anomalous that the Bankruptcy Code allows secure transactions to be modified by the bankruptcy court, but not first mortgages. I noted with interest a notation from a concurring opinion of Justice Stevens in Nobleman v. American Savings. He wrote it this way, and he lays it out in very succinct terms: ``At first blush, it seems somewhat strange that the Bankruptcy Code should provide less protection to an individual's interest in retaining possession of his or her home than of other assets. The anomaly is, however, explained by the legislative history, indicating favorable treatment of residential mortgages was intended to encourage the flow of capital into the home lending market.'' So the concern that I have had, and candidly expressed to Senator Durbin, is that if we make a modification of the principal home, then the lenders will be reluctant to loan money for the principal home for fear that there will be another action by Congress to move the goal post. But when he and I talked about this, we were of the same mind, that we ought to know what the experts thought. We can sit and speculate about it, and our staffs, which are more astute than we, could work on it, but that it would be a good idea to hear from some of the experts. This hearing has been set for the afternoon, which is sort of tough on our schedule. We ordinarily have these hearings in the morning. This is a major, major problem in this country. The lack of attendance of the 19 members of the Judiciary Committee doesn't signify any lack of concern, but only that people are occupied with many other matters. I personally will stay as long as I can, but we will be following your testimony very, very closely. The President has addressed the subject. Treasury Secretary Paulson has. Secretary Jackson has. I believe this is a matter that the Congress ought to act on very promptly, so we're going to move the ball ahead with this hearing today. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Senator Durbin. Senator Specter, thank you very much. Senator Specter. Senator Coleman is a cosponsor of my bill, and I would like to thank him for joining. Senator Durbin. Thank you. This matter is before the full committee, the Judiciary Committee. It customarily would have been before the Subcommittee on Administrative Oversight and the Courts. Senator Sessions of Alabama is the ranking Republican member on that, and I would invite him now if he'd like to make an opening statement. STATEMENT OF HON. JEFF SESSIONS, A U.S. SENATOR FROM THE STATE OF ALABAMA Senator Sessions. I thank you for having this hearing. I'm a very strong believer that one of the most fantastic things about living in America, is that the average citizen with a decent job can borrow $100,000, $150,000, 6, 7 percent interest, pay it off over 30 years, and move into a nice house, at least in most areas of the country. It's more than that in some, for sure. So, I think it's a great privilege we have. It used to be rather simple. There weren't many different kinds of mortgages and loans that you took out. Now we've gotten very complicated. I think it's worthy of Congress to consider how we do this. But I do know that we're not going to change the law of supply and demand. If we make too many rules, particularly on the back end in court, we're liable to reduce the amount of money available for the average person to borrow to buy a house that he can raise his family in and retire in. So, that would be my concern as we go forward. We ask those questions to make sure that we are addressing the problems that we now face in the best way possible. Thank you, Senator Durbin. Senator Durbin. Thank you, Senator Sessions. Before we turn to the witnesses, I want to briefly enter several statements into the record. I have a letter in support of my legislation signed by a diverse group of consumer, civil rights, labor, retiree, housing, lending and community organizations. Without objection, they letter will be entered into the record. I also have been asked to submit statements for the record from the following organizations: the American Bankers Association; National Association of Home Builders; and the Consumer Mortgage Coalition. Without objection, they will also be entered into the record. Now we will turn to our witnesses for their opening statements. I am honored to welcome this distinguished panel. Each witness will have 5 minutes for an opening statement. You will see the timer in front of you turn red when the Capitol Police are about to arrive. Since we have a large panel, I ask you to please try to stay within 5 minutes if you can. Your complete written statements will be made part of the record. I'd like to ask the witnesses, with the exception of Ms. McGee, who may remain seated, if they would please rise and raise their right hands to have the oath. [Whereupon, the witnesses were duly sworn.] Senator Durbin. Let the record reflect that the witnesses all answered in the affirmative. Our first witness is Ms. Nettie McGee. Ms. McGee is a great-grandmother who has lived in Chicago for the last 53 years. She is now retired after a career of working in a picture frame factory. In 1999, at the age of 65, Ms. McGee bought her first home on South Aberdeen, on the south side of Chicago. Now she is in danger of losing that home because of an increase in her mortgage interest rates. Ms. McGee, I know it was a great sacrifice for you to come out here, and I thank you very much. I know it is also hard to talk about this situation, but believe me, you are speaking for many, many people who can't be here today. We wanted to hear your voice and your story as part of this record. Please proceed with your statement. STATEMENT OF NETTIE MCGEE, CHICAGO, ILLINOIS Ms. McGee. Senator Durbin, members of the committee, thank you for inviting me to speak before you today. My name is Nettie McGee and I've lived in Chicago, Illinois for 53 years. I live in a home I waited my entire life to own. Now the interest rate on my mortgage is going up 3 percent and my payments are $200 more each month. I am here to ask you to please help me save my home. In 1997, I began renting my current home on South Aberdeen Street. I rented it for 2 years with an option to buy. When I finally bought my first home in 1999, for $80,000, I was 65 years old. I made the payment for 6 years. I had a fixed rate mortgage and I knew what to expect each month: it was $735 every month. I was able to make my payments and pay my taxes. I could afford all of my bills. Then in October of 2005, the sheriff came to my door to tell me that my backyard was going to be sold for auction for $5,000 because of an unpaid tax bill. I paid the taxes on my house every year. I just didn't know that I had two tax bills, one for my house and one for my backyard. The tax bill for my backyard had been sent to an address across town for years, since and before I moved in. I was desperate to keep my backyard and my beautiful trees, but I had to pay the city $5,000 and I had to do something fast because I would lose my yard. I didn't have $5,000 in the bank. I live on Social Security and I get some rent from my daughter. Then I saw a commercial on TV about refinancing your home. I thought if I refinanced, I could get money to pay the tax bill and keep my yard. I called the number and a broker came to visit me the next day. He wrote down my personal information, and a week and a half later he called me and asked me to come down to sign the papers. After I arrived at the crowded office, I was taken into a small room, handed about 40 pages, and told where to sign. The woman in charge of the closing stood over me and turned the pages as I signed them. The whole process took about 10 minutes. I thought I was signing a fixed-rate loan. Then, with no explanation of the loan, I was sent out the door. The mortgage company paid the taxes to the county. Then, to my surprise, they called me a few days later to come back and get a check for $9,000. I didn't know they had me borrowing the extra $9,000. When I asked about it, the mortgage company said that I could use it for bills. I thought it was a good idea, so I used the money to pay some bills and fix my plumbing problem. I started paying the loan back. The payments were about the same as my original loan. It's been difficult at times, but I have never missed a payment. A month and a half ago, in October of this year, I got a letter from my mortgage company that said that on December 1, my payment was going up from $706 to $912. I called the mortgage broker, but he doesn't work there anymore. I thought I signed a fixed-rate mortgage. I had no idea my payment would jump almost 25 percent. My interest rate went from 7.8 to 10.87, and eventually it will go higher. I don't know how to make my payments now. They are higher than my Social Security check. The only reason I can get by now is because my daughter pays me a little rent. Right now, my lawyers from the Legal Assistance Foundation in Chicago are trying to help me negotiate with my lender, but we don't know if the bank will agree to lower my interest rate back where it was before. I know I will lose my home that I waited my entire life to own if I can't get my original rate back. Many people who could originally afford their mortgage payments are losing their homes because they have an adjustable rate mortgage. Please help people like me, please, who waited their entire lives to own their homes. Please help me. Senator Durbin. Thank you for that great statement, exactly 5 minutes. You're a model for the rest of the witnesses. Thank you so much, Ms. McGee. [The prepared statement of Ms. McGee appears as a submission for the record.] Our next witness is Mark Zandi. Mr. Zandi is the chief economist and co-founder of Moody's Economy.com, Inc., where he directs the company's research and consulting activities. Moody's Economy.com provides economic research and consulting services to businesses, government, and other institutions. Mr. Zandi received his B.S. from the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania, and his Ph.D. at the University of Pennsylvania. Thank you very much for joining us today. We look forward to your testimony. STATEMENT OF MARK ZANDI, CHIEF ECONOMIST, MOODY'S ECONOMY.COM, INC., WEST CHESTER, PENNSYLVANIA Mr. Zandi. Thank you for the opportunity to be here today. I am the chief economist and co-founder of Moody's Economy.com. We're an independent subsidiary of the Moody's Corporation. These are my own personal reviews and do not represent those held by, or endorsed by, Moody's. I will make six points in my remarks. First, the Nation's housing and mortgage markets are suffering an unprecedented downturn. Housing activity peaked over 2 years ago, and since then home sales have fallen by over 30 percent, housing starts by 40 percent, and house prices by 7 percent. Over half of the Nation's housing markets are currently experiencing substantial price declines, with double-digit price declines occurring throughout Arizona, California, Florida, Nevada, the northeast corridor, and the industrial midwest. Further, significant declines in housing construction prices are likely into 2009 as a record amount of unsold housing inventory continues to mount, given the impact of the recent subprime financial shock and its impact on the mortgage securities market and, thus, mortgage lenders. There is now a broad consensus that national house prices will fall by between 10 and 15 percent from their peak to their eventual trough. Even this disconcerting outlook assumes that the broader economy will avoid recession and that the Federal Reserve will continue to lower interest rates. The second point. Residential mortgage loan defaults and foreclosures are surging, and without significant policy changes, will continue to do so through the remainder of the decade. Falling housing values, resetting adjustable mortgages for recent subprime and all-day borrowers, tighter underwriting standards, and most recently a weakening job market, are all conspiring to create the current unprecedented mortgage credit problems. Even if mortgage loan modification efforts soon measurably increase, I expect approximately 2.8 million mortgage loan defaults, the first step in the foreclosure process, in 2008 and 2009. Of these, 1.9 million homeowners will go through the entire process and ultimately lose their homes. The impact on these households or communities in the broader economy will be substantial. Foreclosure sales are very costly after accounting for substantial transaction costs and can serve to significantly depress already reeling housing markets are foreclosed properties are generally sold at deep discounts to prevailing market prices. In much less stressful times, these discounts are estimated to be between 20 and 30 percent. Point three. There's a substantial risk that the housing downturn and the surging foreclosures will result in a national economic recession. The stunning decline in housing activity and prices will combine with rising gasoline prices, crimping consumer spending, and the job market appears increasingly weak as it struggles with layoffs in housing-related industries. Regional economies, such as California, Florida, Nevada, and much of the industrial midwest, together, accounting for well over one-fourth of the Nation's GDP, are, in my judgment, already in recession. The turmoil in the housing and mortgage markets also threaten to further up-end the fragile global financial system, with very clear negative implications for the U.S. economy. Estimates of the mortgage losses global investors will eventually have to bear range as high as $500 billion. The losses recognized so far to date are now more than $75 billion. If the U.S. economy does slide into recession, then of course house prices will decline. Foreclosures will rise to an even more serious degree. Point No. 4. Without a quick policy response, mortgage loan modification efforts are unlikely to increase enough to forestall a surge in foreclosure. A recent Moody survey of loan servicers found that very little modification had been done, at least through this past summer. This highlights the substantial impediments to modification efforts. Some tax, accounting, and legal hurdles appear to have been overcome, but large differences in the incentives of first and second mortgage lienholders and the various investors in mortgage securities are proving very daunting. Given the overwhelming number of foreclosures, loan servicers are also having difficulty appropriately staffing the modification efforts. While the total economic benefit of forestalling foreclosure is significant, these benefits do not accrue to all parties involved in determining whether to proceed with the loan modification. A recent initiative by the Treasury Department in the Nation's lenders to freeze interest rates on re-setting subprime ARM loans is a good step, but should not forestall passage of your legislation, the Helping Families Save Their Homes in Bankruptcy Act. If the Treasury plan is successful in helping many borrowers, then these borrowers will not avail themselves of the opportunity to avoid foreclosure and Chapter 13 provided by this legislation. If, however, Treasury's efforts are unsuccessful, which may very well be the case, then this legislation will prove invaluable. The fifth point. Senator Durbin's legislation, which would give bankruptcy judges the authority in Chapter 13 to modify mortgages by treating them as secured only up to the market value of the property, would significantly reduce the number of foreclosures. An estimated over one-fourth of homeowners likely to lose their homes between now and the end of the decade, equal to an estimated 570,000 homeowners, would benefit from this legislation. This calculation is based on the number of homeowners who face a first payment re-set through the end of the decade that would meet the means test required in the 13 that are still current on their mortgage loans. This would be very helpful in reducing the pressure on the housing and mortgage markets and will measurably reduce the odds of recession in the coming year. Note that in order to limit any potential abuses in the Chapter 13 modification process, Congress should provide firm guidelines to bankruptcy courts, such as providing a formula for determining the term to maturity and the rate of a property's market value. Finally, this legislation will not significantly raise the cost of mortgage credit, disrupt secondary markets, or lead to substantial abuses by borrowers. Given that the total cost of foreclosure to lenders is much greater than that associated with a 13, there's no reason to believe that the cost of mortgage credit across all mortgage loan products should rise. Simply consider the substantial costs involved with navigating through 50 different State foreclosure processes in contrast to one well-defined bankruptcy proceeding. Indeed, the cost of mortgage credit to prime borrowers may decline. The cost of second mortgage loans, such as piggy-back seconds, could rise as they are likely to suffer most from bankruptcy. Such lending has played a clear contributing role in the current credit problems. There is also no evidence that the secondary mortgage markets will be materially impacted as other consumer loans already have similar protection in 13 and have well-functioning secondary markets. However, the non-conforming residential mortgage market has already effectively been shut down in the wake of the financial shock and will only revive after there are major changes to the process. The changes proposed in this legislation are immaterial by comparison. It is also unlikely that the abuses by borrowers will increase as a result of the legislation, given that a work-out in a 13 is a very financially painful process. Indeed, the number of filings has remained surprisingly low since the late 2005 bankruptcy reform, likely reflecting the now much higher cost to borrowers in a 13 proceeding. Short-term investors, or flippers, those who have borrowed heavily, looking to make a quick profit in the boom, would certainly not consider 13 a viable solution to their problem. The housing downturn is intensify, foreclosures are surging. A self-reinforcing negative dynamic of mortgage foreclosures begetting house price declines, begetting more foreclosures, is under way in many neighborhoods across the country. The odds of a full-blown recession are very high. There is no more efficacious way to short-circuit this developing cycle and forestall a recession than passing this legislation. Thank you. Senator Durbin. Thank you, Mr. Zandi. [The prepared statement of Mr. Zandi appears as a submission for the record.] Senator Durbin. Professor Joseph Mason is an Associate Professor of Finance at Drexel University's LeBow College of Business in Philadelphia, and a senior fellow at the Wharton School. Before joining Drexel, Professor Mason spent 3 years at the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency. Professor Mason has an M.S. and a Ph.D. from the University of Illinois, and a B.S. from Arizona State University. Professor Mason, you may proceed. STATEMENT OF JOSEPH MASON, ASSOCIATE PROFESSOR, DREXEL UNIVERSITY, PHILADELPHIA, PENNSYLVANIA Mr. Mason. Thank you, Mr. Chairman, Ranking Senator Specter, and members of the committee, for the opportunity to be here today. I am pleased to appear before you to talk about this foreclosure crisis and the legislative options for addressing the economic and social concerns arising from that crisis. People only file for bankruptcy if they are, first, vulnerable--i.e., they have debt greater than their assets--and second, only if some financial shock occurs that prevents them from keeping debt service payments current. The typical shocks that cause bankruptcy--divorce, illness, accident, and addiction--have all increased over the last several decades and are particularly prevalent among individuals in their 30's, in a time when they have the highest debt load of their lives. With the advent of subprime mortgages, we must now add adjustable rate mortgage payment shocks to the list of classic influences. The question today, therefore, is to what extent legislative intervention can, and should, insulate individuals from the payment shocks in their mortgage contracts. I offer you three main conclusions from an economic perspective. First, mortgages and other real assets are poor candidates for bifurcation in bankruptcy because they can be fully expected to regain value later on in the life of the contract. Hence, bifurcation of a debt secured by real estate may be considered a taking, in a sense, not applicable to fully depreciable assets. The reason a bifurcation makes sense for a fully depreciable collateral, is that the value of that collateral is decreasing throughout the life of the loan. If a court bifurcates a claim on an automobile loan, the automobile is not expected to ever be worth more than the market value established by the courts at that time. For real estate, even in today's market conditions, the value of the collateral can be expected to grow in the future, so that bifurcating the claim is akin to taking away real value from the lender and giving that value to the borrower. The concept is especially egregious in real estate markets that are highly sensitive to economic or market conditions. High-flying real estate markets of 1980's returned handsome profits for investors after the relatively brief market disruptions of the late 1980's and the recession of 1991. The Case-Schiller Mortgage Price Index, which begins in January 1987, shows that Boston home prices hit a high of 75.53 on the index in July 1988, and retreated thereafter, only to reach and exceed that level again in May, 1997. Boston now stands at an indexed level of 170.73, providing 127 percent total return for a buyer who bought at that January 1987 peak, or 4.2 percent annual return since 1987. Los Angeles, similarly, peaked at an index level of 100 in June, 1990, and after a similar hiatus reached that level again in January of 2000. Los Angeles now stands at an indexed level of 254.79, which provided a buyer at that previous peak, 155 percent total return, or 5.7 percent annually since 1990. It's important to point out, these are worst-case returns obtained from buying at the top of the market and holding. The cases do not account for the fact that the investment made by a home buyer is leveraged so that an investment of 20 percent down, along with periodic payments, is enough to obtain the full gain of the property value. Second, legislative changes to enable bifurcation of mortgage contracts will increase the cost of credit to mortgage borrowers to cover the expected aggregate value of judiciary settlements. The cost of mortgage credit can be expected to rise to levels on par with other secured non-mortgage credit, like automobile loans, and unsecured credit, like credit cards. The problem, however, will also extend to secondary markets for securitized loans that have been devastated by uncertainty over the last year. Since the ability to bifurcate mortgages will extend to contracts already written and sold in securitized pools, existing loans will decline in value by the risk difference employed in the spread between non-real estate and real estate secured credit. That means that the value of residential mortgage-backed securities will decline further as well. In the event that markets will not be able to adequately ascertain the impact of judicial intervention, they will impose an additional ``Lemons'' discount above and beyond that already imposed on the market for fundamental opacity and ratings agency malfeasance to account for the maximum possible effect a priori. Knock-on effects will reverberate through resecuritization markets like those for CDOs and SIVs. The point is that judicial adjustment will add further information difficulties to an already uncertain market environment. The effect will not be limited to changes in bankruptcy law. Loan modifications will have a similar influence. For additional background on that, you can see Marty Feldstein's op-ed in today's Wall Street Journal. In addition, changing the nature of mortgage priority in bankruptcy further incentivizes the shift away from building equity in one's own home by paying down the mortgage. If mortgage debt is tax-exempt and can be discharged in bankruptcy, it becomes even more advantageous for consumers to maximize their mortgage debt relative to the value of the home. Addressing Senator Session's opening remarks, as a result of similar incentives we face a generation that stands to enter their retirement years without the historically largest retirement asset, their home equity, intact. Poorly funded 401(k)s, pension funds that will eventually have to face up to subprime mortgage losses in their own portfolios, and Social Security will not make up for that shortcoming, which will therefore create a tremendous drag on economic growth and social well-being. Last, the act of bifurcating mortgage credit will increase the cost of bankruptcy to cover appraisal and other transactions costs needed to establish the fair market value of the underlying real estate, imposing yet another cost on filers above and beyond those imposed in the Bankruptcy Abuse, Prevention, and Consumer Protection Act that went into effect on October of 2005. In the case of bifurcating the automobile loan mentioned previously, the judge need only look at a Kelly Blue Book to establish a reasonable market value for the collateral asset. In the case of a mortgage, however, getting the fair market value is not so simple. The judge will have to order an appraisal of the property to assess a fair market value. That will cost approximately $300 to $500, and the cost would be expected to be paid by the debtor. In addition to the cost, however, the accuracy of appraisals also has to be considered. The fact is, appraisals have not been very accurate in recent past. Appraisals skewed to the high end fueled recent over-borrowing and home price inflation, causing much of the present-day mortgage market difficulties. An industry experiencing such difficulties, which has contributed so much to the recent mortgage crisis, is hardly a reliable basis for a substantial component of bankruptcy law. In conclusion, the U.S. economy continues to experience very real problems stemming from the mortgage crisis. The problems originate in a variety of unsafe and unsound practices in the mortgage industry, ranging from predation to speculation. It is easy to see the need to address predation in the mortgage industry. It makes sense to seek judicial remedies that have the power to nullify contractual terms that violate terms of the Real Estate Settlement Procedures Act, the Truth in Lending Act, the Homeowner Equity Protection Act, and/or other laws and regulations relating to the mortgage industry. Giving the judiciary the power to fully bifurcate mortgage contracts, however, sets the stage for potential abuse of the bankruptcy system to further speculative purposes and further incentivizes cashing out home equity rather than sustainable home ownership. Senator Durbin. Thank you very much, Professor Mason. [The prepared statement of Professor Mason appears as a submission for the record.] Senator Durbin. Our next witness is Professor Mark Scarberry. Professor Scarberry is a Professor of Law at Pepperdine University College of Law in Malibu, California, currently the Robert Zinman Resident Scholar at the American Bankruptcy Institute in Alexandria, Virginia. He graduated from Occidental College in Los Angeles, and the UCLA School of Law. Thank you for joining us today. Please proceed. STATEMENT OF MARK SCARBERRY, PROFESSOR OF LAW, PEPPERDINE SCHOOL OF LAW, AND RESIDENT SCHOLAR, AMERICAN BANKRUPTCY INSTITUTE, WASHINGTON, DC Mr. Scarberry. Chairman Durbin, Ranking Member Specter, and members of the committee, I am Mark Scarberry, Professor of Law at Pepperdine University and Resident Scholar at the American Bankruptcy Institute, or ABI. I teach and write primarily on bankruptcy law and am pleased to appear today to speak on the bankruptcy bills dealing with the mortgage crisis. ABI is a nonpartisan, nonprofit association of over 11,000 professionals who represent both debtors and creditors in consumer and businesses cases. ABI is not an advocacy group and does not lobby. It is a neutral source for bankruptcy information and a resource for Members of Congress and their staff. As a professor and ABI resident scholar, I can give my views, but they should not be taken as the ABI's views. You have a chart I prepared comparing the four pending bills. A key difference between the two Senate bills is that Senator Durbin's, S. 2136, allows a Chapter 13 plan in some cases to reduce the amount of an under-secured mortgage to the value of the home without the consent of the mortgage holder, a result that is called ``strip-down'' or sometimes ``cram- down''. Senator Specter's S. 2133 would require consent of the mortgage holder before a strip-down could take place. The Code currently does not permit home mortgage strip-down under Chapters 7, 11, or 13. Now, a side point. Bankruptcy courts may not be able to handle the needed volume of cases on a one-case-at-a-time retail basis. Congress, instead, could use its bankruptcy power to help Secretary Paulson as he seeks a wholesale solution that could help hundreds of thousands of homeowners like Ms. McGee. Mortgage servicers may lack authority to modify mortgages on such a wholesale basis as is sought by the Secretary. Legislation under Congress's bankruptcy power may be particularly appropriate to validate such agreements if made per Treasury guidelines and to immunize servicers from liability for making such agreements. Now, no Circuit Court had permitted home mortgage strip- down in Chapter 13 until 1989. By 1993, strip-down was becoming so widely used that it threatened to further damage the already weak home lending industry. But that year, the Supreme Court, in Nobelman, held that Section 1322(b)(2) prohibited home mortgage strip-down in Chapter 13. The next year, Congress gave home mortgages in Chapter 11 cases the same protection. S. 2136 would remove that protection in some Chapter 13 cases. Allowing home mortgage strip-down in Chapter 13 would, in fact, treat holders of home mortgages worse than other secured creditors. If a secured credit's lien is stripped down under current law, the stripped-down amount must be paid off, with interest, during the Chapter 13 case over no more than 5 years. As a practical matter, a debtor cannot strip down a first mortgage on a substantial vacation home because the payments needed to pay off the stripped-down amount over 5 years would be too large. S. 2136 would let a debtor pay off a stripped-down home mortgage over a period that could be nearly 30 years. Strip- down, thus, would become feasible, but primarily only for home mortgages, with the lender forced to accept a court-determined interest rate for that very long period. Indeed, after the 2005 amendments, the other major kind of secured consumer debt, purchase-money auto loans, may be stripped down only if the loan was made more than two and a half years before the petition filing date, which is at least half the life of a typical auto loan. Home mortgages, thus, would be treated worse than car loans. Home mortgage strip-down would substantially change the risk characteristics of home mortgages. Permitting strip-down would likely cause difficulties in the secondary market that is so important to the availability and affordability of home mortgages, and it would cause unjustified harm to holders of home mortgages and mortgage-related securities, including investors of modest means, through their retirement plans. Under the approach in S. 2136, home mortgage holders would receive little benefit from the upturn in the real estate market that ordinarily follows a downturn. Under current law, in many cases the mortgage holder benefits from appreciation. Some financially distressed debtors can tighten their belts, make their current mortgage payments, and use Chapter 13 over 5 years to make up any missed payments. When the market recovers, the mortgage holder benefits from the increased value backing the full amount of its mortgage and may suffer no loss at all. Under S. 2136, such debtors typically could, in fact, qualify to strip down their mortgages, despite provisions designed to prevent them from doing so, and I think they would opt to do it. The later upturn then will provide equity for the debtor rather than a restoration of value to the mortgage. Home mortgage strip-down thus eliminates the up-side potential and dramatically changes the risk characteristics of the mortgage. And note that under current law, even after a foreclosure, the mortgage holder can hold the property and wait for it to appreciate. Compounding the problem, losses from strip-down probably are not covered under private mortgage insurance if there is no foreclosure. Strip-down would deprive home mortgage holders, likely, of the benefit of insurance protection that they bargained for. Changing the risk characteristics of home mortgages retroactively likely would depress further the value of existing home mortgages. Increased risk would mean increased interest rates on new mortgages to compensate for the risk, and denial of mortgage credit to some who presently qualify. There would be a further shadow cast on the trustworthiness of American mortgage-backed securities with implications that would be disturbing, given that such securities are held worldwide by investors who count on the protection of vested property and contract rights under American law. My written statement includes specific substantive and technical recommendations for the legislation, should Congress choose to move forward. I'd be happy to discuss those in response to questions. The final point. Let me add that many Chapter 13 plans fail. Under section 1325(a)(5)(b)(2) of the current law added in 2005, any modification of the mortgage holder's lien would be reversed if the plan were not successfully completed, even if the failure involved a debt other than the home mortgage, such as a priority tax claim. Thank you again for the opportunity to appear today. I'd be very happy to answer any questions. Senator Durbin. Thank you, Professor Scarberry. [The prepared statement of Professor Scarberry appears as a submission for the record.] Senator Durbin. Our next witness is Judge Jacqueline Cox at the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Northern District of Illinois, based in Chicago. Judge Cox has served as a Federal Bankruptcy Judge since 2003. From 1988 to 2003, she served as Judge of the Circuit Court of Cook County. Judge Cox has also worked in government service in the office of the Cook County State's Attorney, the City of Chicago Law Department, and the Chicago Housing Authority Law Department. She received her undergraduate degree from Cornell and her law degree from Boston University. Judge Cox, thank you for joining us. We look forward to your testimony. STATEMENT OF JACQUELINE P. COX, BANKRUPTCY JUDGE, U.S. BANKRUPTCY COURT FOR THE NORTHERN DISTRICT OF ILLINOIS, CHICAGO, ILLINOIS Judge Cox. Thank you, Senator Durbin, Senator Specter, and Senator Sessions. I genuinely appreciate the opportunity to address the Senate on protecting home ownership and helping families deal with burdensome home mortgages. I speak for myself, however. I do not represent the Judicial Conference of the United States or the Administrative Office of the Courts. Because home ownership represents economic inclusion in the American dream, and because of the disparate impact of the mortgage crisis on African-Americans and Latinos, passage of the Durbin bill is critical. The Bankruptcy Code generally allows reorganizing debtors in Chapters 11, 12, and 13 to bifurcate secured debt. The plan strips down claims to the value of the collateral. The balance, the amount of the claim that exceeds that value, gets treated as an unsecured claim. In the Chapter 13 context, the unsecured amount would be paid under the plan by a percentage generally based on the debtor's income. Section 1 of the Helping Families Save Their Homes in Bankruptcy Act will, for the first time since 1978, allow a debtor to modify mortgage debt if the debtor's income is insufficient to pay the mortgage. This income limitation is important. It limits this extraordinary relief to those homeowners who need it. Homeowners who can afford their payments will not receive a windfall. Allowing the strip-down of mortgage debt to the collateral's fair market value reflects the economic realities of the lender's situation. The lender who forecloses a loan will recover the value of the home and may receive a deficiency claim when the debt exceeds the value of the home. When Americans purchase homes, the most important consideration is affordability. Most of us anticipate modest future increases in income but cannot afford mortgage interest debt that increases up to 40 percent. The Durbin bill interest rate section allows the debtor to pay the strip-down amount at an interest rate equal to the rate published by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve system regarding the annual yield on conventional mortgages with a reasonable premium for risk. Under the U.S. Supreme Court decision in Till v. SCS Credit, Chapter 13 debtors now follow a similar standard when adjusting interest rates on non-residence secured debt. I will quote from the Supreme Court: ``Taking its cue from ordinary lending practices, the approach begins by looking to the national prime rate, reported daily in the press, which reflects the financial market's estimate of the amount a commercial bank should charge a credit-worthy commercial borrower to compensate for the opportunity costs of the loan, the risk of inflation, and the relatively slight risk of default. Because bankruptcy debtors typically pose a greater risk of non-payment than solvent commercial borrowers, the approach then requires a bankruptcy court to adjust the prime rate accordingly.'' I quote the Supreme Court to emphasize that interest rates are adjusted in our proceedings routinely. In fact, since the 2004 Till decision I have heard only two or three hearings involving disputes over interest rate adjustments. The Bar and the financial services community have very little trouble in this regard. The Durbin bill also waives the pre-petition credit counseling requirement which was added to the Bankruptcy Code by the Bankruptcy Abuse, Prevention, and Consumer Protection Act. Because most debtors facing foreclosure, probably because of fear or denial, wait until the week of a foreclosure sale to seek bankruptcy relief, credit counseling offers them no help. The briefing that debtors are required to receive outline the opportunities--I paraphrase the statute--outline the opportunities for available credit counseling and assist them in performing a budget analysis. Once a foreclosure is pending, it's too late for those kinds of relief. I am particularly supportive of the bill's section 201, which combats excessive fees. It allows fees, costs, and other charges to be added to the secured debt only if notice of such additional charges is filed with the court within a year of when they are incurred, or 60 days before the conclusion of the plan. This policy reflects the practice of our bankruptcy court. We have a very similar provision in our model Chapter 13 plan. The bill allows a plan to waive prepayment penalties. This assists those debtors who can arrange to refinance their obligations under more favorable terms, and we see a lot of that in Chapter 13. Such penalties do not compensate lenders for costs, they only serve to punish debtors. I agree with the position of the National Bankruptcy Conference in remarks presented to the House of Representatives in October. On behalf of that organization, Attorney Richard Levin compared the plight of homeowners today to the plight of family farmers in the 1980s. There is clear precedent for Congress to solve this mortgage crisis by allowing debtors to bifurcate or strip down mortgage debt. That was done for the family farmers and it enabled lenders to renegotiate farm debt to reflect falling land prices. The good work of Senator Charles Grassley and Representative Mike Synar created Chapter 12. I ask that Chapter 12-style adjustments that include home mortgages be applied to Chapter 13 for the same reasons. In conclusion, I support passage of Senator Durbin's Helping Families Save Their Homes in Bankruptcy Act. A lot of the provisions are things we do routinely. They are not new. We just don't do them for home mortgages. I agree that there would be a lot of them, but I think we can do them. As in the family farmer case, once the bankruptcy community sets a model of how to do these things, more of the modifications will be made in out-of-court situations. I believe this bill provides a sensible and much-needed modification to the Bankruptcy Code. Thank you very much. Senator Durbin. Thanks, Judge Cox. [The prepared statement of Judge Cox appears as a submission for the record.] Senator Durbin. Our next witness is Judge Thomas Bennett. Judge Bennett has served as a Federal Bankruptcy Judge for the Northern District of Alabama since 1995. He is currently president-elect of the National Conference of Bankruptcy Judges. From 1980 until his appointment, he was a partner with the law firm of Bowles, Rice, McDavid, Graff & Love in Charleston, West Virginia. He holds undergraduate, graduate, and law degrees from West Virginia University. Following his graduation from law school in 1976, he served as law clerk for the Honorable John R. Brown of the Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals. Judge Bennett, thank you for being here. We look forward to your testimony. STATEMENT OF THOMAS BENNETT, BANKRUPTCY JUDGE, U.S. BANKRUPTCY COURT FOR THE NORTHERN DISTRICT OF ALABAMA, BIRMINGHAM, ALABAMA Judge Bennett. Thank you, Senator Durbin. I want to thank you and Senator Specter and Senator Sessions for inviting me. I'm not going to repeat what I've already submitted in my written comments. What I would like to do, is maybe expand on some things that I think may be misperceived and make some comments. Feel free to interrupt me if you want to. One of the things that I want to follow up on, was a statement by one of our prior witnesses. It's something that I have written down: why is bankruptcy the ticket to get this relief? There really is a bigger picture here, in my opinion. In order to get this relief, you have to file bankruptcy. I would suggest to you that there are a group of people that otherwise would not have to file bankruptcy that will be forced to file bankruptcy to get this relief. It's a fact that should be looked at. Senator Sessions. When you say ``forced'', you mean a lawyer would advise them that it only makes common sense that they file bankruptcy? Is that what you mean? Judge Bennett. If you faced the prospect of losing your property because you cannot afford the increase and you only have the ability to forestall that by filing bankruptcy, you'd have to file the bankruptcy if you wanted to preserve that property. This particular type of relief could be made available to a broader segment, is my point, potentially, that otherwise would not have to file bankruptcy. I point this out, because in the context of bankruptcy there are certain dynamics. Those people that are filing bankruptcy because they have overall financial difficulties that go beyond just mortgages will file bankruptcy anyway. They will have to. Those that only have to deal with the increase in the mortgage cost and don't have other financial problems would not otherwise necessarily have to file bankruptcy if the bill were structured in a fashion that gave a broader scope than simply looking at bankruptcy. That's why it's a fact that you ought to look at--I would suggest you look at. There are two principal areas in the other comments that I want to expand on that have been made by others. One, rises out of my comments, my written comments. There are really two stages of losses in a bill that writes down mortgages. The first stage is the stage that exists today with respect to any mortgage. If there is a loss on the market, it's there. The testimony of the others is correct. If you have to foreclose the mortgage today, you will suffer a loss. If that loss is in bankruptcy on a write-down, you will suffer that loss. A significant difference is the second loss. The second loss that occurs under a restructuring of principal, particularly over an attenuated time frame, is with respect to what would be the fully secured portion of the debt. When you restructure a debt over an up to 30-year period that is currently not a 30-year obligation, that fully secured debt, if the interest rate is below the market rate, will be significantly impaired. That is on somebody that just holds all payment streams. The current mortgage structure is such that there are multiple payment streams. When you take a payment stream on what will be a written- down mortgage to its fully secured value and you bust those streams up, as they have done, into interest and principal, and some of those interest streams can be broken down and some of those principal streams can be broken down, and then you drag out the payment for 30 years, on some of those--particularly interest--streams it is very possible that they become worthless, despite the fact that the debt may be fully secured. It's because of the interest rate discount factors. This is a very, very complex problem. It is not simply just writing down the principal up front. There is a second tier of write-downs that really has to be given serious consideration. The pooling factor, when you pool these mortgages, the pooling is designed to take care of some of the risk that I've told you about. In fairness to you, you should look at the mitigation that is caused on those losses by pooling or packaging of these streams of income. But it is a very serious issue. That's one. The next is--and there is testimony that you've received-- there really is no evidence that the interest rate and cost of interest and supply of credit has changed. There are examples in prior periods. But I would tell you, it's really like comparing apples and oranges. The reason is this: the discussion should always be on what would have otherwise been there. When you know the cost of something goes up or the supply decreases, you will not, in the future, be able to say, look, I told you so, because in the dynamics of what is going on here you could have two impacts. You could actually have lower interest rates. But what you need to know is, how much lower would they have otherwise gone but for legislation that may go awry? You could have higher interest rates. The question, though, becomes: how much lower would they have been had the legislation not been passed? Likewise, the supply of credit could generally increase. The real question is, how much more would it have increased but for the legislation? The supply could have decreased. The question may be how much less it would have decreased but for the legislation, and giving historical examples will not demonstrate that. That is another issue that is of serious consequence. What I would like to also address, is that I think there is merit in something. Where I'm coming from, if I were you, I would ask me what would I do. What I think, is there needs to be a pause for a while. As much as I may hate to admit this, it may be somebody that is from a different political background than I that has suggested something. I think it is maybe wise to pause for a short time frame. It might be 60, 90 days, something, to try to stop what's going on, leave everything where it is at this point in time. Maybe stop foreclosures on an interim basis. But a short enough time frame to get it better fixed so you develop a broader picture. It may entail fixing of interest rates or not allowing changes in interest rates for a short time. But my main thrust is, what you are getting ready to do may have much more serious, much broader implications than what people may contemplate. We as lawyers and judges are very bad when we deal with words and understanding what are really multi-variant dynamics. That's the main thrust of what I want to do, not to tell you not to do something, because these are difficult times for many people. The difficult times sometimes require we do things we may not otherwise do, but we need to do them in a context and a framework, I think, that addresses the overall picture, not a segment of the picture. We need to do it in a way that does the least amount of harm, and hopefully a lot more good, than the greater amount of harm. I would like to say that there is another category of people here that we will never know exists without some very quantitative analysis, and that is if what is done by the legislation forces write-downs and converts over to a fixed interest rate and causes the cost of credit to increase incrementally enough, there will be people who would never have had to have gone to bankruptcy or elsewhere to restructure mortgages. The numbers? I can't tell you. But what will happen is, they may have otherwise potentially been able to pay their mortgages without having legislation. The incremental cost adjustment could be such that they now face the same problem of people that you wanted to help, but because of what's occurred they now are pushed into that group you want to help. So, it's a really complex problem that I don't think, in fairness to what people may perceive is my side or the other side, that a rush to judgment on these benefits--those are my principal points. I mean, I don't want to belabor what I've already said. Senator Durbin. Thank you very much, Judge Bennett. [The prepared statement of Judge Bennett appears as a submission for the record.] Senator Durbin. Our final witness is Henry Sommer, supervising attorney at the Pro Bono Consumer Bankruptcy Assistance Project in Philadelphia; president of the National Association of Consumer Bankruptcy Attorneys; former head of the Consumer Law Project of the Community Legal Services in Philadelphia, where he worked for 21 years; Editor-in-Chief of Collier on Bankruptcy. He served as lecturer at University of Pennsylvania Law School received his undergraduate degree from Harvard, and his law degree from Harvard as well. Mr. Sommer, thank you. STATEMENT OF HENRY J. SOMMER, PRESIDENT, NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF CONSUMER BANKRUPTCY ATTORNEYS, PHILADELPHIA, PENNSYLVANIA Mr. Sommer. Thank you, Mr. Chairman, Senator Specter, Senators Sessions. Thank you for inviting me to testify today. It is now quite clear that our country is facing approximately 2 million mortgage foreclosures over the next few years. These foreclosures are already having widespread effects in neighborhoods across America, as well as in financial markets, and those effects will get much worse in the months to come. Not only will millions of people lose their homes, but other homes in the vicinity will decline in value as a result of nearby foreclosures, causing an enormous loss of wealth to most American homeowners. It is also clear that it is within the power of Congress to prevent hundreds of thousands of these foreclosures and the ripple effect they'll cause throughout the economy. Senator Durbin's proposed legislation, S. 2136, which would make modest changes in the Bankruptcy Code, could save as many as 600,000 families from losing their homes. Allowing families to modify their mortgage debts and reduce their payments would utilize an existing, efficient, well-established, and predictable template to prevent foreclosures and it would not require the use of government funds to bail out homeowners or lenders. No other legislative proposal has the potential to save nearly as many homes. The basic principle underlying the bill, that liens are reduced to the extent they exceed the value of the collateral and the payment terms modified to reflect a fair rate of interest, is popularly known as ``cram-down''. The concept is one of longstanding importance in bankruptcy law. Essentially, it simply permits the debtor to buy back an asset from a creditor's lien at the current market value that anyone else would pay for it. The principle is fundamental to the way the bankruptcy laws reflect economic reality. The basic underlying fact in these cases is that bankruptcy does not cause the loss to the creditor. The debtor's inability to pay has already caused the loss. The loss already exists as a matter of economic reality, whether or not the creditor has recognized it on its books. If cram-down is not permitted for debtors who cannot pay their mortgages, debtors and creditors have several other alternatives: there could be foreclosure; there could be a short sale of the property; there could be a deed in lieu of foreclosure; or there could be a voluntary modification to terms similar to cram-down. In each of these scenarios, the creditor will take a loss equal to, or greater than, what would occur with the cram-down. I understand that industry lobbyists have been arguing that such legislation is unnecessary because: 1) lenders will solve the problem through voluntary modifications; and 2) the legislation would cause interest rates to increase dramatically. Neither of these arguments has merit. First, voluntary modifications are not being made in any significant numbers. When I testified in the House 8 months ago, an industry witness testified that such efforts were well under way to solve the problem. But now even the Secretary of Treasury has recognized the inadequacy of the industry's response. That inadequacy was predictable for the same reasons that the current administration effort and any voluntary modification program would be inadequate, reasons I have detailed in my written testimony. With respect to the claim that interest rates would increase by 1 to 2 percent on all mortgages, the fact is that legislation such as this has no measurable impact because, again, ability to pay, not the bankruptcy law, is what is causing the losses. In the current mortgage situation, as I discussed previously, the lenders will suffer the losses, perhaps greater losses, even if this bankruptcy legislation is never enacted. You have to remember that the alternative to cram-down is not the debtor paying the loan according to its terms. The alternative is foreclosure. Industry lobbyists have also argued that enactment of S. 2136 would bring uncertainty to the financial markets. Just like the losses that they claim would be brought about by the legislation, that uncertainty already exists. It would be hard to imagine how this bill could bring even a small fraction of the uncertainty that the lenders themselves have already caused. If anything, allowing modification in Chapter 13 will foster more certainty and stability because it will create a predictable template for dealing with defaulted mortgages. I also hope you will remember that those who are making those projections are the same people who not long ago told this Congress that there were no problems with abuses or excesses in subprime mortgage lending that needed regulatory or statutory action. The people who now say they are so concerned about risk are the same people who saw no problems when it was repeatedly pointed out that they were giving loans without even determining whether borrowers could pay those loans. In other words, these are the people who created this mess and are now suffering billions of dollars of losses, not because of any bankruptcy laws, but rather because of their poor ability to predict what would happen in the mortgage market. The mortgage modification remedy in S. 2136 is narrowly tailored. It will not be used where it is not needed because there are strict eligibility requirements based on the stringent means test enacted in the 2005 bankruptcy bill. A family that cannot afford a feasible plan to repay a modified mortgage will not be eligible to have its plan confirmed. S. 2136 will help the many families who refinanced their homes with predatory mortgages, often because they were deceived into refinancing an affordable mortgage into one they could not afford, and especially the many families who in fact qualified for better terms all along. It will help their neighbors, whose homes will not lose value because of foreclosures on their block, as well as their local governments who will not suffer a precipitous loss in their property tax base. In conclusion, Congress has an opportunity to prevent hundreds of thousands of families from losing their homes if it acts soon. Providing resolution in such cases is more likely to rationalize and stabilize the market rather than destabilize it. Thank you. Senator Durbin. Thank you, Mr. Sommer. [The prepared statement of Mr. Sommer appears as a submission for the record.] Senator Durbin. Senator Specter has another meeting to go to, and I'm going to allow him to ask first if he'd like to, and I will follow him. Senator Specter. Thank you very much, Mr. Chairman. We started off by saying this was a very complex issue. As we've listened to seven witnesses, it's become even more complex. Professor Scarberry, you suggest that the bankruptcy courts can't handle this on a case-by-case basis. If one of our bills is adopted and the bankruptcy courts are faced with the gigantic flood, will they be unable to adjudicate these issues? Mr. Scarberry. I don't know for sure. I think it would mean a very substantial increase in caseload, and depending-- Senator Specter. Judge Cox, Judge Bennett, you're bankruptcy judges. Can you handle it? Judge Cox. I would definitely put my arms around it. As I indicated in my remarks, by the lawyers and the financial services industry, testing us for a few cases, finding out exactly what we do, how the U.S. trustee would set up guidelines on how mortgages-- Senator Specter. So you think, after you ruled in a few cases, they'd know better and could handle it themselves? Judge Cox. They would know better and they would be guided by those out of court. Senator Specter. Judge Bennett, what do you think? Judge Bennett. I think, on the volume, in the short term it would be difficult, in the long term it's handleable. Yes. Judge Cox. Yes. Senator Specter. Short term? Judge Bennett. Short term. Judge Cox. Our U.S. Trustee's Office is excellent in getting these sorts of things organized. They're excellent. Senator Specter. Professor Scarberry, you have your hand up. Mr. Scarberry. One of the difficulties is that S. 2136 refers back to the Chapter 7 means test, which includes a good number of ambiguities and has given rise to a great deal of litigation. I think the bankruptcy judges here might agree that they have not been the easiest provisions to apply, and in fact have in some cases been counter to what was intended. Senator Specter. Wouldn't it be wise to, at least at this moment, freeze interest rates so that people like Ms. McGee are not facing this variable adjustment which comes as such a shock before we adjourn for Christmas and come back and we're in gridlock on some other matters and nothing happens? That at a minimum, if some administrative action can be taken to freeze the interest rates, that that would provide some relief right now? What do you think, Ms. McGee? Would you like that? Ms. McGee. Sure. [Laughter]. Senator Specter. I thought I'd get a direct answer from you. Judge Bennett. Senator, may I say this? Senator Specter. Go ahead, Judge Bennett. Judge Bennett. I mean, in fairness to everybody, I think that a short-term potential freeze on foreclosures so that they don't impend at this time frame, it gives a breathing spell to analyze and to get a game plan that really encompasses everybody-- Senator Specter. So you're for a freeze? Judge Bennett. For very short term, yes. Senator Specter. How long? Judge Bennett. Well, 60, 90 days. With people working, potentially, it could--I can't tell you off the top of my head. Also, an interest rate holding for short term, I think, would give everybody a chance to analyze a lot of things that may not have been looked at fully. Senator Specter. What I'm trying to get a handle on, and perhaps it's not handleable, as to the real question as to whether this cram-down will affect the future markets, as Justice Stevens said in the Supreme Court decision, that in the long term effect it will increase costs. Professor Mason, you say in your testimony that investors are likely to impose a lemons discount, so that it will have an effect. Mr. Sommer, you think that it will be fine to have the cram-down and the market will adjust to it. Is there anything you can really grab ahold of, any empirical evidence which would give us some sense of, if not certainty, reasonable likelihood, aside from just the opinions? You are experts and we value your opinions, but opinions are not as valuable when we seek to legislate on something harder. What can you say, Mr. Sommer, that's more definitive? Mr. Sommer. Well, obviously there's no certainty to these predictions. But I will point out that cram-down on cars did not exist before 1978, and no one has ever suggested that car interest rates went up after it was adopted in 1978. Cram-down was limited somewhat on cars in 2005. No one has suggested that interest rates went down as a result. In 1986, Congress passed the Family Farmer Bankruptcy law, which permitted cram-down on farm loans and farm mortgages, and no one has suggested that farm interest rates changed. So we have those examples. I think the real issue is, we're talking about a very--even though it's a large number of foreclosures, in total we're talking about a very small part of the total market. We're not talking about wiping them out completely. What we're talking about is-- Senator Specter. Mr. Sommer, aren't cars, as a depreciable asset, very, very different from homes? Mr. Sommer. Cars are different from homes. But I think that-- Senator Specter. So different that the analogy is inapt? Mr. Sommer. Well, I don't think it is because the fundamental principle of bankruptcy is all based around liquidation of assets. Remember here, the alternative is foreclosure. There's going to be a liquidation. It's not like the homeowner is going to keep making payments while the property increases in value. It's not like the mortgage company, if it forecloses, is going to hold onto the property-- Senator Specter. Excuse me. My time is almost up. I want to give Professor Mason a chance to answer that question. Mr. Mason. I wanted to address your points about the lemons discounts, and in particular the evidence that we have for that lies in George Ackerloff's Nobel Prize-winning work in the economics of asymmetric information discounts and premiums that are invoked in markets. There is a very clear understanding: you add more uncertainty to a market, the price is going to react. Right now, you're getting ready to enter the earnings season where banks report their earnings, in particular, the year-end earning season where we're looking for annual reports to give us some notion of the losses on bank balance sheets. Senator Specter. What does all that mean? Mr. Mason. If you freeze interest rates on adjustable rate mortgages right now you're going to add further uncertainty to the value of those holdings on bank balance sheets and fuel this crisis even further. Senator Specter. So you are against the freezing? Mr. Mason. Right now is, in fact, a low point in the adjustment cycle for adjustable rate mortgages. Next spring, that will accelerate. Senator Specter. Before my red light goes on I want to start a question to Mr. Zandi. You testified that cram-downs will significantly decrease the number of foreclosures. Why do you think that? People won't foreclose when they go into a bankruptcy court, they have their principal sum go down? Mr. Zandi. I think borrowers, given the choice of a Chapter 13 bankruptcy or a foreclosure and losing their home, will take the Chapter 13 bankruptcy. The number of folks that would benefit, that would apply under the means test, would be about 500,000 to 600,000 people. Yes. Senator Specter. I have great sympathy for the Chairman. I like to help the Chairman, when my light goes on, to stop. Senator Durbin. Well, spoken like a former Chairman. Senator Specter. One who aspires to be a Chairman again. [Laughter]. Judge Cox. We understand. Senator Durbin. We hope that God will answer your prayers, but not too soon. [Laughter]. If I might, I'm trying to put this in context. We're talking about 500,000 or 600,000 people who may be affected by this bill. We're talking, I think, roughly about 130 million mortgage owners in America. We are talking, as I see it, less than one-half of 1 percent. I've heard speculation here that this is going to warp the market. It's going to have this dramatic dislocation in trying to figure out the credit future. But that ignores the obvious. Doing nothing has an impact on the market, too. It has an impact on Mrs. McGee and a lot of other people. I'd like to go back to your point, Mr. Zandi. If I heard you correctly, you said that a foreclosure sale--and I'll let you correct me if I'm wrong--will result in a price that is 20 to 30 percent below fair market value. Is that what you said? Mr. Zandi. That is correct. The literature on this subject, some of it coming from the Federal Reserve, suggests, in normal times, not stressful times like the one we're in today, the discount is 20 to 30 percent. Senator Durbin. And there is also a cost associated with foreclosure itself. Mr. Zandi. Quite significant. The cost of maintenance, the realtors involved in selling the home. Many, many other costs. Senator Durbin. And like a banker from one of the biggest financial institutions in America recently told me over dinner, bankers don't like to cut grass. Mr. Zandi. They don't. Judge Cox. They don't. Senator Durbin. Well, they're stuck with a situation cutting grass on a property in foreclosure until they get it sold. Mr. Zandi. Exactly. Right. Senator Durbin. They have to hire somebody to do that, as one example. So the point I'm trying to get to is, all the arguments that have been made by some, that this is creating a real hardship on financial institutions, ignore the obvious. Foreclosure is a real hardship on financial institutions. They're going to lose money. Our outcome is based on a crammed down/stripped down discount, whatever you want to call it, no lower than fair market value. That is the bottom line here. It seems to me like it is a reasonable bottom line. Judge Cox, a point was raised earlier, and I think it was by Mr. Scarberry, about how difficult it would be to come up with fair market value of property. Do you have to cope with that challenge? Judge Cox. We don't have that much of a problem. Sometimes people bring in expensive appraisals. Sometimes they just put a real estate broker on the stand and talk about prices in the area. It can be done cheaper than that. Senator Durbin. And if it's disputed, I mean, you can take more than one appraisal. Judge Cox. We hear those matters all the time. Senator Durbin. So that is not an issue. Judge Cox. That is not a big problem. Senator Durbin. You mentioned coming up with an interest rate, you said earlier, was something you could calculate. Judge Cox. By the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Board. The interest rate published for today is 6.1. We add premiums for cars. We could add a premium for loans. These issues are never disputed in our court. We never have hearings on these. That is not difficult for the financial services market and the debtors and the debtor's bar to do. Senator Durbin. If God would smile down and decide that this bill should become law, would it be an incentive or a disincentive for financial institutions to renegotiate the terms of a mortgage before foreclosure and bankruptcy? Anybody have an opinion? Judge Cox. I'm not sure that will happen without some sort of immunity for a suit from their shareholders and bondholders, but I think that by having debtors come into bankruptcy, certainly shields the lenders from those sorts of civil actions. Senator Durbin. Any other thoughts on that? Mr. Scarberry. It would certainly encourage that sort of thing. I tell my students all the time that one of the key functions of bankruptcy law is to provide a backstop for consensual negotiations. Certainly in Chapter 11, that's the case. But to go back to a point, Mr. Chairman, that you made earlier, that this is a small percentage of loans, I might analogize that to saying that it only snows 1 percent of the time, but when it snows you really want to have your warm weather gear. So, these are the mortgages on which the need to look to the protections of the real property secured transactions laws is important. If that protection is taken away when it's needed, that has a substantial effect, especially when what is taken away is the up-side, and the possibility occurs that during a severe market downturn, the up-side is removed. Senator Durbin. But that's the point I want to get to. You are arguing that real estate, unlike the car, is an appreciable asset. It can appreciate in value. Historically, that is what has happened and we hope it will continue to happen. But ultimately in a foreclosure, you are making a sale at that moment in time. You are selling at that moment in time at fair market value, knowing that if history serves you, 10 years from now that property is going to be worth more. That doesn't mean you're going to get that much more when you sell it. Mr. Scarberry. Mr. Chairman, that depends. That depends, first of all, on whether there is a foreclosure. And to the extent that this bill creates moral hazard and people end up using it to strip down mortgages, where they could--but for the bill, and they would but for the bill, in some cases--tighten their belts and use existing provisions of Chapter 13 to keep their homes, there wouldn't be a foreclosure. It also assumes that there would not, under these circumstances, be further developments. Typically the bank is going to buy at the foreclosure sale, so there's no actual money, in many of these cases, that changes hands. If they decide that they want to set up a subsidiary to handle rental property and wait out a couple of years until the market recovers, they have that option now. Mr. Mason. No, they don't have that option. Even under Gramm-Leach-Bliley, banks don't have a real estate option. Mr. Scarberry. Well, most of these aren't held by banks at this point. Senator Durbin. But I really struggle with this notion that when it comes to immoral conduct, it's always the consumer. Mr. Scarberry. Oh, no, no. No. Senator Durbin. In this circumstance here, I'd like to ask Mr. Sommer, do you think these people would race into bankruptcy court because the Chapter 13 work-out under Durbin might be available? Mr. Sommer. We find people who, even when we advise them to file bankruptcy, don't want to do it. It's really the converse. Senator Durbin. And it's harder to do it today than it was before we changed the law. Mr. Sommer. It's harder. And for this particular remedy they would have to pass the--they would have to live under the expenses set by the means test, 2005 means test. Only then, if they didn't have enough money to pay their mortgage, could they use this remedy. Senator Durbin. Well, I think that if the prospect on the horizon that we've heard about the economy going into a tailspin, I've heard the word ``recession'' from several different witnesses here, how many financial institutions out there are looking at that and viewing it as a sanguine result? That has to be something that is painful to anticipate. If we can slow down, as Senator Specter has suggested, what is coming and stabilize the situation, it's got to be in the interests not only of homeowners, but also of financial institutions. Judge Bennett. Senator, may I say something? I think if it can be done properly, yes. My concern is, it's not being done properly. What's happening--let me give you an example. If you strip down the mortgage to its principal balance, you are then going to refinance, theoretically, under your proposal, up to another 30 years. The interest rate that you use on that could actually be negative, be bad for the borrower in certain instances. It already occurs in cars right now, that car dealers are coming in that sold cars at zero percent interest. Under our current statutory framework, they asked for the increase to the market rate. The bill, the way it's structured, for instance, does not apply to these teaser rate loans only. It applies to the broad market. But my bigger point here is that when you then subdivide all of the ownership, who owns what makes a big difference. Second, the whole structure of what's going on for a 30-year period is far more dramatic--up to a 30-year, I should say--than what are short-term loans. Third, we need to bear in mind that, unfortunately, in all bankruptcies the failure rate is astoundingly high. We can disagree on what failure or success is, because sometimes success is restructuring, being able to hold onto the property and dismissing the case. So, dismissal numbers are not that great. Senator Durbin. Judge, I'm sorry to interrupt you. My time is up. Judge Bennett. I'm sorry. Senator Durbin. I would note that Senator Sessions has another meeting to go to, and I'd like to yield to him at this point. We can return to this after Senator Sessions. Senator Sessions. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. It certainly is highlighting the complexity of the problem we're dealing with, the amount of money that has been brought forth to allow borrowers to buy houses. I mean, lenders are out to make a profit. They write the contracts that help make themselves a profit and protect their interests in every way they can, but the lender puts the money out. They give $100,000, $200,000, $500,000 and they can't do that if we have a problem and make it too difficult to get the repayment. That's why I will offer three letters here for the record. One is from Mr. Clark, former Comptroller of the Currency, and Mr. Isaac, a former FDIC Board Chairman, and Mr. Powell, FDIC Chairman, and the Mortgage Bankers Association, and from the Securities Association. I'd just point out that these pieces of legislation have the tendency to increase interest rates. I think Judge Bennett said, I don't know exactly what the interest rate will be, but if you put a burden on it, Mr. Mason, an uncertainty, you say whatever it will be, it will be a little bit higher. Is that right? Mr. Mason. Yes. Senator Sessions. One of the letters said it could be 2 percent. Do you think that is excessive? Would you give an opinion on that? Mr. Mason. I don't think that would be excessive at all. The problem is, with the amount of uncertainty markets can't accurately price, so they throw up worst-case scenario-- Senator Sessions. Well, Ms. McGee indicated, what, a 3 percent increase in your interest rate, resulting in a $200 a month increase in payment? One percent can easily be $100 a month for the average borrower. So half a percent, even if it went up only a half a percent, could be $50 a month for the average borrower. So we've got to be careful about this, is all I'm saying. Now, with regard to the question of 600,000 foreclosures perhaps being avoided, does that contemplate 600,000 more bankruptcies being filed to avoid the foreclosures? If I could get an affirmative answer there. Mr. Mason. Yes. Senator Sessions. So we're talking about really moving foreclosures into Chapter 13 bankruptcies. But you can file Chapter 13 now, right, without this legislation? Professor Scarberry, maybe you could tell me. Put it down here where the horses can eat it, I guess. What does this mean? I mean, what are the forces at work here? You talk about moving. Who is it going to help? What is the overall economic impact? Mr. Scarberry. That's a big question, Senator Sessions. I'll try to answer it. Who is it going to help? It will help the homeowner who is able to make payments at a court- determined interest rate on a mortgage on the value of the property, but not able to make the mortgage payment that is called for under the contract, or even a mortgage payment at an appropriate interest rate on the full amount of the debt. So, it would help that person. Senator Sessions. Now, you indicated earlier, did you not, that this could cause them to lose their appreciation? Mr. Scarberry. No. It could cause--and the Chairman and I were having a discussing a moment ago-- Senator Sessions. I'm sorry I missed it. Mr. Scarberry.--as to whether the holder of the mortgage is harmed by not having the possibility of benefitting from appreciation in the future. So if we catch the value of the property when it's at a low point and fix the amount of the mortgage there, then if the property appreciates the debtor gets the equity from the appreciation and the mortgage holder is still stuck with the loss. One conceivable possibility would be to have some sort of revaluation several years down the road in which the value of the property is considered to get-- Senator Sessions. There's no free lunch there. If you cram down the value of the property, somebody loses. Mr. Scarberry. Somebody loses, yes. Senator Sessions. And if it goes to the lender, more lenders in the future are going to charge higher interest rates. Mr. Scarberry. I don't see any other way, Senator Sessions. If risks are increased and costs are increased, then interest rates will be higher than they otherwise would have been. I think that simply follows. Senator Sessions. Now, I supported cram-down for automobiles. I think it makes sense. I think we came pretty close. Senator Durbin was articulate on that issue, I know, when we discussed it, and Senator Feingold. I think we came close to the right amount there. But it does appear to me that since homes tend to be generally upward and you can have periods of decline, that it is less appropriate. Judge Bennett, you've been at this a while. Would you agree, whether you should or not, it's less appropriate than in an automobile? Judge Bennett. I'm going to leave the policy decisions to those that make those. I will tell you what I think from an economic point of view. The answer is, the risk and the uncertainty is far greater than on what are shorter term and smaller dollar amounts. So, from that point of view I think I would tell you that by pushing these out at longer terms with bigger dollar volumes and with interest rates, that really--and I could tell you the experience of interest rates on cars is, it's prime plus 1, 2 or 3. Realistically, in the real market, the credit quality of the people who get prime or prime plus 1, 2, or 3 are not bankrupts. So, the idea that the interest rate on the cram-down really reflects the market rate misses the point in the real world. Senator Sessions. You mentioned in your written statement, Judge Bennett, and discussed--you suggested, I'll just say it that way--that we're putting a lot of police pressures on bankruptcy judges to make decisions that that's not their training or their normal requirement. Did you say that? Would you discuss what you said in that regard? Judge Bennett. Well, let me tell you my framework. The framework of what I did, was to set forth, here are some over- arching issues that are of more economic significance. Here's a comparison of the two bills. If you look at what I did, I really laid you a blueprint out on each bill as to where I think there are interpretation and other problems. So if you want to take those into consideration, you can structure around those. I did that in more of a bipartisan sense to tell you where I think there are interpretation problems. What I think, and have always thought and used to tell my clients, you can always file bankruptcy but you cannot unfile. In that sense, I think right now--I don't think the economists of this world--and I'll take the fall for being one of those in a prior life--really know where we are headed, necessarily, and really know whether the mortgage issue is the cause or the symptom, or whether it's both. I really urge caution until we get a better picture, and we do the whole picture. I think that something will ultimately have to be done. That's where I come from. Lawyers and judges are not professionals in these areas. What we are, are professionals at arguing positions for our clients and resolving positions. The function of the legal system is not necessarily solely to get it right--hopefully we do most of the time--but is to bring finality to an issue. From that point of view, our training is not in other things. I would suggest that if you look at the car issues and the real market rates that would be paid out on these, that the cram- downs on cars are effectively well below market rates of comparable credit risk. That same thing will happen in the context of mortgages, which means that the risk of loss for those that hold a residual portion of the cram-down mortgage will be under-paid and will be a further diminution of the value, if that answers your question. Senator Sessions. Professor Scarberry? Mr. Scarberry. Senator Sessions, you asked a moment ago about the 600,000 cases. I would suggest caution in assuming that the litigation in those cases will be similar to the litigation over car loan strip-downs or cram-downs. In a car situation, you may be arguing about $1,000 in difference. In a home mortgage situation, you may be arguing about $50,000 or $100,000 or more. With the incentive to litigate, and the greater uncertainties in valuation for real property, especially when so few properties are being sold, it seems to me we have a potential for a very large amount of litigation in a very large number of cases. That's why I suggested that it might be useful for Congress to think about using the bankruptcy power to assist in resolving this problem, not in bankruptcy cases, but through the process that Secretary Paulson has attempted. So, perhaps in a sense I'm reflecting on what Judge Bennett said. To do this in a Chapter 13 creates all sorts of problems and it may not be the best way to do it. In particular, as I pointed out, unless the Congress changes the provision that was added in 2005, if the Chapter 13 fails for any reason before the end of, typically, 5 years, the modification of the mortgage will disappear. So, failing to pay priority tax claims or other sorts of things--perhaps that's a technical aspect of the bill. But to tie this to a 5-year payment plan, which tends to be how you deal with other kinds of debts, may not be the best way for Congress to use the bankruptcy power here, to help in a situation where I think there needs to be something done. Senator Sessions. Go ahead. Mr. Mason. If I can jump in for just a moment. I'm not sure that addressing this in bankruptcy is really the most effective way, but as I've said before, I'm not sure that modifying the terms of all existing mortgages is appropriate either. I think that Senator Durbin raised an extremely important point that I want to come back to, which is the foreclosure system in the United States. It's not clear, when we're working on a bankruptcy, that the property will be foreclosed upon. From an economic point of view, if it was economical for the lender to restructure the loan on behalf of the borrower, that would be carried out. I wrote an article on this that was picked up in The Economist and cited very widely. Senator Sessions. In other words, they would do it on their own because it's in their own self interest. They don't want to have another house in the inventory. If they can't get a price for it, they have an incentive themselves, or selfish interest, to refinance. Mr. Mason. Precisely. Precisely. And given that the matter is in bankruptcy should be a flag to the lender that we're getting pretty close to a foreclosure point here, and if it's economical we can still negotiate in a bankruptcy court, notwithstanding anything that this committee might do. So it strikes me that the market should be working and there shouldn't really be an issue. I think the bigger issue that is sometimes lost in what we've been talking about with the mortgage crisis, is the foreclosure system, because in the U.S. we're going to put this house on the market and auction it off for cash on the barrel head to an individual buyer. Oftentimes, even if that individual who was just foreclosed upon might have some amount of cash, let's say it's 70 percent of the market value, they would even be locked out of the bidding process. We don't have a chance for banks to buy the home back because banks can't own real estate. As a banking specialist, that was one power that was left out of Gramm-Leach-Bliley. They can't own real estate and couldn't lease it back. But it strikes me that there is a tremendous opportunity here, a tremendous market opportunity for the market to purchase real estate and, in fact, lease it back to the existing occupant to fight the urban blight problem. Now, I'm not saying, give that power to the banks. But I am saying that there could be a role in fixing this foreclosure system to allow greater efficiencies in bidding, similar to structures that we do see in Europe where properties are placed on the market, and, say, 100 properties at a time, a corporation will buy them, will maintain the homes, and will lease them to occupants so that they do not go idle. Senator Sessions. Thank you. Mr. Chairman, this is an able panel on an important issue. Thank you very much. Senator Durbin. Thank you, Senator Sessions, for being part of this. I have a few more questions. Ms. McGee, what is going to happen to you if you lose your home? Ms. McGee. Well, I really don't know. Senator Durbin. You're living on Social Security, right? Ms. McGee. Yes. That's my source of income. But I was hoping that somebody would come up with an idea or something today, not only for me, but to help people who--I got in this situation on my own, you know. But now they're talking about bankruptcy. I don't think I could afford bankruptcy. You know, I couldn't afford bankruptcy. So then that means that if I can't pay the mortgage, I lose my home. Then I go where? Senator Durbin. Have you seen any homes in your neighborhood or where you live that have gone through this? Ms. McGee. Well, not right where I live, but where my granddaughter lives at 69th and Hermitage, there are five foreclosed houses in one block. One block. It's all over, you know. But mine will be next, I guess. Senator Durbin. I hope not. Ms. McGee. I don't know. I don't know what to say or what to do. Senator Durbin. Professor Scarberry, who wins in a foreclosure? Mr. Scarberry. I don't think anyone wins. I don't think anyone wins in a foreclosure. Senator Durbin. But you raised a point that somebody raised to me, which I want to try to bring out on the record here, about some insurance. Mr. Scarberry. Yes. Well, my understanding--I'm not an expert on this. I have spoken to people who are involved in it, and the committee should look more closely, and perhaps others here know more about private mortgage insurance, which often is required on loans where not very much money is put down, often less than 20 percent. Private mortgage insurance ordinarily, as I understand it, only pays to the mortgage holder if there is a foreclosure. So to the extent that the lien is stripped down in a Chapter 13, and that there is no foreclosure, the mortgage holder suffers a loss, but does not get the benefit of the insurance that they bargained to receive and that went into the pricing of the whole mortgage. Now, that, it seems to me, is a problem. Now, perhaps there could be some sort of--on the other hand, if too much is asked of the private mortgage insurers, their ability to handle the load--again, it's not my area. One would question, if we have 2 million foreclosures, how a private mortgage insurance system is going to work. Senator Durbin. It's a legitimate policy question, probably beyond the Judiciary Committee, and something that we shouldn't ignore. Mr. Scarberry. And so it does seem to me that if the process of securitization of mortgages, with the dividing up of the rights to the various income streams and to so many different forms of securities, if that has resulted in there being no one who can really negotiate the loan modification with the homeowner because the servicer says, ``oh, well, I can't do that. I would do it if I owned the mortgage, because it makes sense, but it would hurt this security holder who has the right to the first bit of the interest.'' It seems to me it would make sense for Congress to say there will be someone who can act, it will be the servicer, and the servicer will act, perhaps, to try to get the best value overall, and if that hurts some of the securities, it hurts them. But that seems to me to be something that might be very useful. Senator Durbin. One of the goals here was to hope that passing this would encourage work-outs so that people wouldn't have their homes lost, that Ms. McGee and others might find some terms or interest rates that they can live with. But as you just described the situation, as the paper moves further and further away from the original transaction and the only protection for the ultimate paper holder is insurance that depends on foreclosure, it strikes me that you've just created a disincentive for a work-out in the negotiation. Mr. Scarberry. Well, yes. Yes, you have. So in that sense I understand your initial question: who wins in a foreclosure. In a sense, the beneficiary of the private mortgage insurance may gain from a foreclosure. It is true that mortgage originators--and others, perhaps Professor Mason will know a lot more about this than I do--have taken back some of the risk by way of reinsurance. So, I think it's very complex. But initially, at least, it would seem that, absent a foreclosure, the loss will be borne by the mortgage holder, not by the insurance company. The insurance coverage, essentially, has been rendered worthless. Mr. Zandi. Senator Durbin, can I pipe in for just a second? Senator Durbin. Sure. Go ahead, Mr. Zandi. Mr. Zandi. There are certain investor groups that do benefit in a foreclosure, and that's why the modification efforts are not working. There's a market failure because of the way the securities are structured. Certain investor groups want the process to go through foreclosure and the losses to be realized because they won't suffer the losses, the folks who took on the most risk in the securities will. So they have no interest whatsoever to see these things modified, and that's why they're not happening, and that's why there's a failure in the marketplace. That's why the Treasury Secretary has put forward his proposal, because he realizes it's not going to happen in a significant way. Senator Durbin. I think that's the point Mr. Sommer made. Mr. Zandi. Yes. That's exactly the point. Yes. So there is a market failure here and you can't let the market do it by itself because it's not going to happen. It's not going to work. Senator Durbin. Anyone like to comment on that before summation? Mr. Mason. I'd like to address that a little bit more accurately. There aren't security holders that will benefit from foreclosure. In fact, the problem is really more accurately characterized by Professor Scarberry: nobody really wins here. But the problem is that nobody wins in a modification in the sense that the servicing structures are built so that the serving contracts that pay the servicer to send out the bills and make the phone calls aren't written to handle any of the activities that we see in modification. So let's say a servicer goes ahead and, let's say I'm late on my loan, the servicer calls me, we have some talks, we work some things out, they freeze my interest rate for a couple of years, or maybe permanently, who knows. But we work some things out and I keep paying the mortgage. Well, they've just incurred some additional expenditures in that activity. The problem is, nowhere in their contract do they get to recover those expenditures because I didn't go into foreclosure. Senator Durbin. Do you acknowledge and concede the earlier point, that the sale and foreclosure is going to be at a loss to fair market value; that the foreclosure proceeding itself is an expensive undertaking; that a financial institution is not in the business of cutting grass and selling property? Mr. Mason. I do. I completely concede. Senator Durbin. Conceding all those points, doing nothing is expensive to someone in this process who is the ultimate mortgage owner, right? Mr. Zandi. There's obvious winners in modification. Obvious winner. The borrower is the obvious winner. The community in which the borrower lives is an obvious winner. The economy is an obvious winner because house prices aren't going to fall quite as much. The costs of foreclosure are substantively greater, by anyone's measure, to modification. Those benefits have to go to somebody. They're going to go to the borrower, they're going to go to the lender, they're going to go to the servicer, and they're going to go to the investor. So, there are significant benefits to modification of a foreclosure. Mr. Mason. Now, that being said, that borrower is a winner and it's not clear that every borrower out there deserves that status. There are certain borrowers that-- Mr. Zandi. Now, that's a different argument in a different story, in a different point. Mr. Mason. There are certainly borrowers like the one sitting at this table that has been truly harmed by the mortgage system, by abuses and by predatory practices. Those borrowers certainly need redress. But we have also had a tremendous amount of speculation. Senator Durbin. Well, I might just add, though I have my differences, and have had many with the administration, I talked to Secretary Paulson yesterday. What they are proposing is certainly not paying homage to the sanctity of the contract. They know that we cannot continue these contracts. We've got to either not allow a re-set or come to some sort of--eliminating pre-payment penalty, whatever it takes, that is going to step into this situation and say it has to stop. This is not good for this Nation for this to continue. Mr. Mason. I also want to point out another thing that Ms. McGee mentioned in her testimony. There are these fundamental problems with the mortgage closing practices under RESPA, where she was put in a room for 10 minutes with 40 pages of paper. There was no way possible she could read, much less digest the terms of the contract. Giving her that contract, a firm contract 2 weeks beforehand might have given her a fighting chance where she could show that to her daughter, or her friend, or her friend's friend, or an attorney. Senator Durbin. Oh, no. Having been an attorney at closings, I can just tell you, I'm sure Ms. McGee's daughter is a very smart young lady, but give me a week with it and I might be able to make some sense out of it. I'll just say this. Let me close by saying this. I had a meeting today with the realtors. We talked about a lot of things, including this issue, obviously. I am hopeful, at the end of the day, that we not only deal with this crisis, but look prospectively. There ought to be a simple, simple sheet that you put in front of a borrower which says this is how much you're borrowing, this is the interest rate, it is either permanent or it's going to change, here is your pre-payment penalty if there's going to be one. Now, this debate was started a long time ago by the first man I ever worked for, Paul Douglas, who initiated Truth in Lending. I am sure Senator Douglas, if he saw that stack of papers pushed in front of Ms. McGee, or Senator Proxmire, who ultimately passed the bill, would consider this a great victory for consumers. We've got to get to the point where consumers have some basic information so that they know what they're getting into. The moral hazard argument, I think, is applicable if in fact people are informed and make a bad decision. In most cases, people are not informed. Mr. Mason. Let me just say, that's very true, but I've seen the development of the Schumer-Box for credit card contracts and I've seen the terms in credit card contracts move beyond the Schumer Box, so that what you've legislated to be presented no longer contains--accurately--represents accurately the important terms of the contract. So I am worried about prospectively is the industry moving beyond these requirements. Senator Durbin. Being a legislator means being hopeful, so we're hoping that we can do better. Mr. Scarberry. Mr. Chairman, the idea of a single sheet very clearly setting forth terms, it seems to me, is crucial. One of the problems with mandating disclosure is, the more disclosure you mandate, the harder it is to read and the less is actually conveyed. So that seems to me to be an extremely valuable approach. Senator Durbin. My thanks to the entire panel. To Ms. McGee, for your sacrifice in coming here. We hope that we can help you work this out. To the judges, for coming and giving us an important perspective, and to all the members of the panel. Thank you very much. This meeting of the subcommittee, or the full committee, will stand adjourned. There may be some written questions sent your way. I hope you can respond to them in a timely way for the record. Other members who wish to make statements and put them in the record will be given that chance. We stand adjourned. 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