Final Prospectus for Synthesis and Assessment Product 2.3

Overview: Introduction, Topic, Questions to be addressed, Audience and intended use
Contact Information for Responsible Individuals at Lead and Supporting Agencies
Lead Authors
Stakeholder Interactions
Drafting
Review
Communications
Proposed Timeline

References

Appendix A1: Proposed Content outline
Appendix A2. Potential collaborators
Appendix A3. Biographical Sketch of Key Participants (in Alphabetical Order)

1. Overview: Description, Audience, Intended Use, and Questions to be Addressed.

1.1. Introduction

In the Strategic Plan for the U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP), issued in July 2003), 21 Synthesis and Assessment Products (SAPs) were identified to be produced over a 4-year time frame (2004-2008). These products are to be prepared through processes that are open and public, encouraging stakeholder participation in order to promote a consensus about the knowledge base for climate change decision support.

In line with the Atmospheric Composition Chapter and Goal 2 of CCSP Strategic Plan, “Improve quantification of the forces bringing about changes in the Earth’s Climate and related systems”, Synthesis and Assessment Product (SAP) 2.3 will provide a synthesis and integration of the current knowledge of the climate-relevant impacts of anthropogenic aerosols.

This prospectus describes the focus and implementation plan for developing and producing Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) Synthesis and Assessment Product 2.3, “Aerosol Properties and Their Impacts on Climate”. This prospectus has been prepared according to the Guidelines for Producing Climate Change Science Program Synthesis and Assessment Products and will be reviewed and approved by the CCSP Interagency Committee. This prospectus document does not express any regulatory policies of the United States or any of its agencies, or makes any findings of fact that could serve as predicates for regulatory action.

The Topic

Recent research has demonstrated that atmospheric particles (aerosols) can cause a net cooling or warming within the climate system, depending upon their physical and chemical characteristics. Sulfate-based aerosols, for example, tend to cool, whereas black carbon (soot) aerosols, tend to warm the system. In addition to these direct effects, aerosols can also have indirect effects on the balance of incoming and outgoing radiation by their influence on cloud properties, distribution, and persistence. When climate models include the effects of sulfate aerosols, the simulation of global mean surface temperatures is improved. One of the largest uncertainties about the net impact of aerosols on climate is the diverse warming and cooling influences of the very complex mixture of aerosol types and their spatial distributions. Further, the poorly understood impact of aerosols on the formation of both water droplets and ice crystals in clouds also results in large uncertainties in the ability to project climate changes. Thus, aerosols impact climate by interacting directly by scattering and absorbing solar radiation but also indirectly by modifying cloud properties. More detail is needed globally to describe the scattering and absorbing optical properties of aerosols from regional sources and how these aerosols impact other regions of the globe.

Anthropogenic aerosol emissions since the beginning of the industrial era have continuously increased along with increases in greenhouse gases (GHGs) but the effects on climate are not as definitive as those due to GHGs. While non-absorbing particles such as sulfates counteract the influence of GHGs by reflecting more solar energy back into space (thus reducing heating by the atmosphere), increasing emissions of carbonaceous particles that are more absorbing add to the uncertainty in aerosol forcing. The problem is particularly severe with the rapid industrialization of large developing areas of the world, particularly in Asia from where bulk of aerosol and GHG emissions are anticipated in the coming decades. A substantial fraction of the uncertainty in radiative forcing of climate is due to the uncertainties associated with the effects (direct and indirect) of aerosols on the climate system.

Large errors in an estimate of the indirect effect of aerosols on climate were anticipated even when the interaction of aerosols with cloud fields was thought to be simpler – namely the first indirect effect or the Twomey effect. Here, stack or automobile emissions consisting of very small – submicron – particles interact with clouds, and by acting as ‘cloud condensation nuclei’ can lead to an increase in number of cloud droplets. If the total amount of liquid in the cloud remains the same, then the effective radius of the droplets is reduced, and clouds with the more numerous smaller droplets are brighter. Quantification of this effect is a major field of activity (3) and is a difficult task given the stochastic nature of the clouds, cloud layering and the emission sources.

The uncertainty in aerosol climate forcing makes it impossible for us to understand the sensitivity of the climate system based on the observed temperature record. If aerosol cooling has been large, then the warming we have already received implies large climate sensitivity. If aerosol forcing has been small, then most of the greenhouse gas warming has not been counteracted, and climate sensitivity is smaller. Understanding the actual aerosol influence is therefore necessary for us to know how sensitive the climate will be in the future to continued anthropogenic influence.

Questions to be Addressed

There have been increased efforts to determine the aerosol direct impact from remote sensing, surface based observations, and in situ field campaigns (1, 2). A primary topic to be addressed in this report is to assess our current state of understanding of anthropogenic aerosol climate forcing from the observational perspective, primarily the direct component, but also the indirect component.

The observations themselves are often used in conjunction with aerosol models of the climate system, to help understand the aerosol components that make up the total aerosol optical depth. These models can also be used to assess the radiative impact of the different aerosol types. Thus the interaction of observational techniques with aerosol modeling will be a prime component of the subjects reviewed.

Aerosol climate forcing is included in global climate models as part of their simulations of the last century. All models run for the latest IPCC (AR4) report included at least some aerosol component. A second focus of this report is to review the quality of the aerosol composition and forcing used in these models compared with data that is being obtained from observations and from aerosol models (3). The accuracy of the aerosol forcing included will help indicate whether the models have been able to reproduce the observed temperature changes with the proper climate sensitivity.

Based in part on the above discussion, an outline for the proposed report is provided in Appendix A1.

Audience and Intended Use

Aerosol interaction with shortwave (SW) radiation is a major source of uncertainty impacting two areas of research – climate prediction and remote sensing. Thus policy makers and policy analysts both within and outside the US government and worldwide, interested in these two areas are the most likely target audience. The organizations include (but are not limited to) Climate Change Science Program, Climate Change Technology Program, National Science Technology Council (NSTC), Interagency working group on Earth Observations, U. S. Weather Research Program, other inter-agency committees and US military. International agencies such as those connected with the United Nations (IPCC, World Meteorological Organization etc) are also intended audience.

Contact Information:

Lead Agency:
National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)
Supporting Agencies:
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
Department of Energy (DOE).

Key Contact:
NASA (Leads)
Rangasayi N. Halthore - - (202) 358-1780

Lead Authors

The following individuals have been nominated as potential lead.

Lead Agency

Mian Chin NASA

Philip L. DeCola NASA

Graham Feingold NOAA

Rangasayi N. Halthore NASA

Patricia.K.Quinn NOAA

Lorraine A. Remer NASA

David Rind NASA

Appendix A2 also contains a list of other potential authors whose expertise is highly relevant to the subject of this study. A biographical sketch of key authors is provided in Appendix A3.

3. Stakeholder Interactions

Stakeholder input will be solicited through the public comment period for this prospectus and the public comment period for the draft report. All comments submitted during the public reviews will be made publicly available and these comments will be carefully considered by the authors.

Stakeholder involvement is essential to ensure transparency – open access to information on the SAP 2.3; feedback on relevance – review and comment on the SAP 2.3 process and verification that information produced by the SAP 2.3 will be useful; and credibility – recognition by the stakeholders of the scientific validity and independence of the SAP 2.3.

The process of drafting and incorporating public comment will comply with the rules set forth in the Federal Advisory Committee Act and NASA’s general IQA guidelines for peer review from the Office of Management and Budget.

4. Drafting

The lead author will convene a meeting of potential authors to contribute to each section of the proposed draft. Since the turnaround time is limited, it may be necessary to bring together few authors to contribute larger portions of the draft.

5. Review

The Guidelines for Producing CCSP Synthesis and Assessment Products provide guidelines for soliciting reviews. These involve expert peer review, a public comments period, and a final review and approval by the CCSP interagency committee and the National Science and Technology Council (NSTC) via the Committee on Environment and Natural Resources Research (CENR).

The expert peer review will be conducted in accordance with NASA’s requirements for peer review and general guidelines from the Office of Management and Budget. Immediately following expert review, the lead authors will produce the second draft of the report by incorporating comments and suggestions from the reviewers, as the lead authors deem appropriate. Following this expert review process, the second draft will be released for a 45-days public comments period. The authors will prepare a third draft, taking into consideration the comments submitted during the public comments period. The scientific judgment of the lead and supporting authors will determine responses to the comments. The public comments received along with the responses to these comments, will be posted on the CCSP web site.

Following clearance by NASA, the third draft of the product will be submitted concurrently to the CCSP Interagency Committee and the CENR for final review and approval. If the concurrent CCSP Interagency Committee/CENR review further revision is necessary, the comments will be sent to the lead agency for consideration and resolution by lead authors.

6. Communication: Proposed Method of Publication and Dissemination of the Product

Hardcopies of the product will be published using the standard format for all CCSP synthesis and assessment products. The final product and the comments received during the expert review and the public comment period will be posted on the CCSP web site. Once the document has been cleared by the NSTC process, the product will be prepared for both web and hardcopy dissemination. The number of hardcopies and the distribution process will be determined as part of the development of this product.

7. Proposed Timeline (subject to change)

June 08 First draft of the report completed

June 08 Draft prospectus completed

Jul-Aug 08 Expert and Public review on the first draft

Aug-Sep 08 Resolve public and expert review

Sep 08 NASA clearance

Sep/Oct 08 Submission for final CCSP/CENR clearance

Oct/Nov 08 Resolve CCSP/CENR clearance comments

Nov 08 Release the report

Dec 08/Jan 09 Produce glossy hard copies of the report

References

Appendix A1. Proposed Content of the Report.

ASSESSMENT OF THE CURRENT STATE OF UNDERSTANDING OF THE INFLUENCE OF AEROSOLS ON 20TH CENTURY CLIMATE CHANGE AND THUS CLIMATE SENSITIVITY

1. INTRODUCTION
     A. Definition of aerosols
     B. Potential influence of aerosols on the climate system
          a. Direct Effect
          b. Indirect Effect
          c. Semi-direct Effect
     C. Aerosol observations (brief introduction)
          a. Remote sensing
          b. Field campaigns
          c. Surface observations
     D. Modeling of aerosols
          a. Aerosol models
          b. Aerosols in climate models
     E. Plan for this report

2. UNDERSTANDING AEROSOL FORCING FROM OBSERVATIONS
     A. Introduction on obtaining aerosol forcing from observations
     B. Observational techniques
     C. Method of combining observations and models
     D. Results for the Direct Effect of aerosol forcing
     E. Indirect Effects
     F. Additional Considerations

3. AEROSOLS IN CLIMATE MODELS
     A. Introduction discussing aerosol impacts in AR4 simulations
     B. Comparison of aerosol direct effects with observations
          a. GISS GCM
          b. GFDL GCM
          c. General model intercomparisons
          d. Additional considerations
     C. Comparison of Aerosol Indirect Effects in models
          a. Aerosol effects on clouds and radiation
          b. Aerosol effects on precipitation
     D. Impacts of aerosols on model climate simulations
     E. Implications of comparisons of modeled and observed aerosols for climate simulations

4. THE WAY FORWARD
     A. Opportunities for Future Research – Observations
     B. Opportunities for Future Research - Modeling
     C. Concluding Remarks

Appendix A2. Additional Proposed Collaborators

1. Aerosol Chemistry/ Composition
A. R. Ravishankara, NOAA ESRL
Dan Murphy, NOAA

2. Aerosol Remote Sensing
Hongbin Yu NASA GSFC
Ralph Kahn, NASA GSFC

3. Aerosol Forcing
V. Ramaswamy, NOAA GFDL
Dorothy Koch, NASA GISS
Michael Mischenko, NASA GISS
Joyce Penner, Univ. of Michigan
Stephen E. Schwartz, Brookhaven National Laboratory

4. Aerosol Sources
David Streets, Argonne National Laboratory

5. Aerosol modeling
Susanna Bauer, Columbia
William Collins, LBL
Thomas Delworth, GFDL
John Seinfeld, Caltech

Appendix A3. Biographical Sketch of Key Participants (in Alphabetical Order):

MIAN CHIN, Education: Ph.D., Georgia Institute of Technology, Atmospheric Sciences, 1992; M.A., Ball State University, Chemistry, 1986; B.S., East China Normal University, Chemistry, 1982. Professional Experience: Physical Scientist, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, 2003-present; Senior Research Scientist, Georgia Institute of Technology, 2001-2003; Research Scientist II, Georgia Institute of Technology, 1997-2001; Research Scientist, Universities Space Research Association, 1995-1997; Postdoctoral Researcher, Harvard University, 1992-1995. Awards: Exceptional Achievement Medal, NASA, 2005; Exceptional Achievement Award, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, 2005; Editor’s Citation for Excellence in Refereeing, Journal of Geophysical Research, 1997. Research Interests: Regional and global air quality; aerosol-chemistry-climate interactions; air pollution and climate forcing. Mailing address: NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Code 613.3, Greenbelt, MD 20771, U.S.A. (Telephone: 301-614-6007; email: ).

PHIL L. DECOLA, Education: Ph. D., Chemistry, Univ. of Pennsylvania. Professional Experience: National Research Council Post Doctoral Associate Fellow, 1992 – 1994, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. Expertise in molecular spectroscopy, atmospheric chemistry. Program Manager/Scientist, 1994 – current, Atmospheric Composition Focus Area, NASA Headquarters; AURA Chief Scientist, NASA Headquarters, 2004 – current. Currently on Detail to Office of Science and Technology Policy, 2007 – 2009, Washington, DC.

GRAHAM FEINGOLD, Education: BSc., 1982, Tel Aviv University; MSc., 1985, Tel Aviv University; Ph.D., 1989, Tel Aviv University (Geophysics and Planetary Sciences). Professional Experience: Physicist, NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, Colorado since 2000. Research Scientist Colorado State University, CIRA 1995-2000; Research Scientist University of Colorado, CIRES 1991-1995; Postdoctoral studies, NCAR, 1990. CIRES fellow (since 2003), CIRA Fellow (since 2006). IGAC Scientific Steering Committee; International Commission on Clouds and Precipitation (ICCP); Member International Aerosol-Precipitation Science Assessment Group (IAPSAG); NOAA observer on ESA/JAXA EarthCare mission. Research Interests: Impact of atmospheric aerosol on clouds and climate. Research includes the development of boundary layer models that represent aerosol-cloud-radiation-chemistry-landsurface interactions; airborne studies of aerosol-cloud interactions, and development of surface-based remote sensing methods to study aerosol hygroscopicity and aerosol-cloud interactions. Mailing address: NOAA ESRL, 325 Broadway, Boulder, CO 80305. Telephone: 303-497-3098 Email:

RANGASAYI N. HALTHORE. Education: B.E., (Bangalore Univ.), 1975; M. E., (Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore), 1977; Ph.D., Cornell University (Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering), 1984; Professional Experience (in Planetary atmospheres, remote sensing, aerosol science and energy transfer in the Earth – atmospheric system): Post-Doctoral Research Scientist, SUNY at Stony Brook, 1984 – 1986. Scientist, Applied Res. Corp./NASA GSFC (1986 – 1989); Chief Scientist, Hughes-STX Corporation/NASA GSFC (1989 – 1995); Scientist, Brookhaven National Laboratory (1995 – 2000), Adjunct Associate Professor, Dowling College, NY (1999 - 2000) and Scientist, Naval Research Laboratory (2000 – Current). Program Manager, Atmospheric Chemistry/Composition Data Analysis and Modeling Program, 2007 – Current, NASA Headquarters. Editor, Geophysical Research Letters, 2005 – Current. Mailing address: NASA Headquarters, Earth Science Division, MS: 3B74, 300 E Street SW, Washington, DC 20546. (Tel: 202 358-1780 Fax: 202 358-2770; email: ).

PATRICIA QUINN, Education: B.A., 1982, Reed College; Ph.D., 1988, Univ. of Washington (Chemistry). Professional Experience: Research chemist, NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Lab., Seattle, since 1993. Previously with Univ. of Colorado and Univ. of Washington. Currently University of Washington Affiliate Associate Professor, Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean (JISAO), University of Washington, Senior Fellow. Research Interests: Impact of atmospheric aerosols on climate and air quality. Research includes the development and deployment of instrumentation for the determination of aerosol chemical, physical, and optical properties and the use of these data to develop regional “climatologies” of aerosol properties for input to or validation of chemical transport-radiative transfer models. Mailing address: NOAA PMEL, 7600 Sand Point Way NE, Seattle, WA 98115. Telephone: 206-526-6892 Email:

LORRAINE REMER, Education: Ph.D., Atmospheric Science, University of California at Davis, 1991; M.S. Oceanography, University of California at San Diego, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, 1983; B.S. Atmospheric Science, University of California at Davis, 1980. Professional Experience: Physical Scientist, NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center, 1998 to present; Senior Member of Technical Staff and Manger, Science Systems and Applications, Inc., 1991 – 1998; Meteorologist, Atmospheric Research and Technology, Inc., 1983 – 1986. Research Interests: atmospheric aerosols and their effect on climate and global change; remote sensing of atmospheric parameters including aerosols. Mailing address: NASA GSFC Code 613.2, Greenbelt, Maryland 20771; (Telephone: 301-614-6194). Email:

DAVID RIND, Education: B.S. (1969), City College of New York; M.A. (1971), Ph.D. (1976), Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Columbia University. Professional Experience: Research Associate, 1976-1979 Lamont-Doherty Geological Observatory of Columbia University; Physical Scientist, 1980-Present, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies; Lecturer, Adjunct Assistant Professor, Adjunct Associate Professor, Adjunct Full Professor, 1978-Present, Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Columbia University. Awards: Phi Beta Kappa; Sigma Alpha Society; Ward Medal (meteorological proficiency); NASA Special Achievement Award; NASA Superior Achievement Award; Charney Lecturer (Spring 1995, AGU); Bernard Haurwitz 2008 Professorship (American Meteorological Society); Nobel Peace Prize (as IPCC 2007 Lead Author). Research Interests: Climate and stratospheric dynamics, general circulation modeling, paleoclimate, hydrology, solar forcing, remote sensing. Mailing Address: NASA/Goddard Institute for Space Studies, 2880 Broadway, New York, N.Y. 10025; Telephone: 212-678-5593; email: .

STEPHEN E. SCHWARTZ, Education: A.B., Harvard, 1963; Ph.D. University of California, Berkeley (Chemistry), 1968. Professional Experience: Postdoctoral Fellow, University of Cambridge (U.K.), 1968-1969; Assistant Professor, State University of New York, Stony Brook, 1969-1975; Scientific Staff, Brookhaven National Laboratory, 1975-present; currently Senior Scientist and group leader, Atmospheric Sciences Division. Professional Services and Memberships: American Association for the Advancement of Science (Fellow); American Association for Aerosol Research; American Chemical Society and its Physical and Environmental Divisions; American Geophysical Union (Fellow); American Meteorological Society; American Physical Society; Gesellschaft für Aerosolforschung; International Union for Pure and Applied Chemistry (Fellow). Chief Scientist, Atmospheric Science Program, DOE, 2004- .Editorial advisory Board, Tellus B, 1997- 2003. International Union of Pure and Applied Chemistry, Commission on Atmospheric Chemistry, Associate Member, 1991-94; Titular Member, 1995-98; Interdivisional Committee on Nomenclature and Symbols, 1998- 2003. Editorial Advisory Board, International Journal of Chemical Kinetics, 1993-95. North American Editor/Chemistry and Editorial Advisory Board, Urban Atmosphere, 1991-95. Associate Editor, Journal of Geophysical Research - Atmospheres, 1986-89. Associate Editor, Atmospheric Environment, 1984-95. Awards and Honors: Fellow, American Geophysical Union, 2005; Haagen-Smit Award for outstanding paper in Atmospheric Environment, 2003; Fellow, American Association for the Advancement of Science, 2002; Science and Technology Award, Brookhaven National Laboratory, 2006; ISI Highly Cited Researcher, Thompson Scientific, 2006; Editor's Citation Excellence in Refereeing Journal of Geophysical Research - Atmospheres, 1995, 2002. Research Interests: Climate and climate change; transport and transformation of trace atmospheric constituents; field measurements and interpretation; chemical transport and transformation modeling; aerosol chemistry and physics; atmospheric radiation. Mailing Address: Atmospheric Sciences Division, Building 815E, Brookhaven National Laboratory, Upton, NY 11973. Telephone: 631-344-3100, Fax: 631-344-2887, E-mail: .

DAVID G. STREETS, Education: B.Sc., University of London, Physics/Chemistry, 1968; Ph.D., University of London, Physics, 1971; NSF Postdoctoral Fellow, University of Rochester, Chemistry, 1971–1972; ICI Postdoctoral Fellow, University of London, Physics, 1972-1974; Postdoctoral Fellow, Argonne National Laboratory, Physics, 1975-1976; Environmental Scientist, Argonne National Laboratory, 1977-1986; Group Leader, Argonne National Laboratory, 1986-1996; Senior Scientist, Argonne National Laboratory, 1996-present; Adjunct Research Professor, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, 2006-2007; Research Interests: The impact of human activities on the atmospheric environment, including acid deposition, energy policy, urban air quality, and global climate change; Mailing address: Decision and Information Sciences Division, Argonne National Laboratory, 9700 South Cass Avenue, Argonne, IL 60439; (Telephone: 630-252-3448; email: ).

HONGBIN YU, Education: Ph.D., Atmospheric Chemistry, Georgia Institute of Technology, 2000; M.S., Atmospheric Physics, Nanjing University, China, 1992; B.S., Atmospheric Physics, Nanjing University, China, 1989; Professional Experience: Associate Research Scientist, Goddard Earth Science and Technology Center (GEST), University of Maryland at Baltimore County (UMBC), 2007-present; Assistant Research Scientist, GEST UMBC, 2004-2007; Postdoctoral Fellow and then Research Scientist, Georgia Institute of Technology, 2000-2004; Lecturer, Nanjing University, 1992-1996; Research Interests: aerosol climate forcing, aerosol assimilation, aerosol long-range transport, air pollution and boundary layer meteorology; Mailing address: NASA GSFC Code 613.2, Greenbelt, Maryland 20771; (Telephone: 301-614-6209; email: ).

Aerosol properties and their impacts on climate

Contents