TABLE 1 Statistical Performance of the Four Forecasting Methods,,,,
Model method,Naïve model,Long-term memory model,ARIMA model,Nonlinear model
RMSE,597.8,904.5,637.7,471.5
RMSE,(154.7),(158.8),(184.7),(107.9)
MAPE,9.16,13.92,9.41,7.59
MAPE,(1.96),(2.33),(2.08),(2.11)
Rank correlation of original,0.768,0.59,0.757,0.809
Rank correlation of original,(0.087),(0.093),(0.090),(0.071)
"Significant number of positive errors,  5%",4,11,0,56
"Significant number of positive errors, 10%",11,22,4,70
"Wilcoxon location on original,  5%",0,0,0,1
"Wilcoxon location on original, 10%",0,0,0,7
"Wilcoxon variance on original1,  5%",0,2,0,14
"Wilcoxon variance on original1, 10%",0,4,0,34
Rank correlation of difference,0.064,0.113,0.082,0.098
Rank correlation of difference,(0.138),(0.130),(0.121),(0.119)
"p(Bin)<5% (much better than chance), p(c2)>10%",19,54,21,17
"p(Bin)<5% (much better than chance), p(c2)>5%",19,51,19,15
"p(Bin)<10% (better than chance), p(c2)>10%",28,76,30,30
"p(Bin)<10% (better than chance), p(c2)>5%",28,72,25,28
"1 The number of days on which this test is valid is 184 minus the number of days on which there was a significant difference in the locations of the original and forecast series, e.g., for nonlinear at the 10% level this is 184–7=177 days.",,,,