January 3, 2008 Space Weather Prediction Center 3-day Space Weather Predictions Space Weather Predictions reports contains a 3-day forecast of solar- geophysical activity including planetary, middle- and high-latitude geomagnetic field conditions; sunspot region-specific solar flare probabilities; and general ionospheric conditions (including polar cap absorption). See sample and description below. The last 75 3-day Space Weather Predictions (daypre) reports are included in this directory. Issue time: Daily after 2200 UTC (usually online at 2210 UTC). Period Covered: Predicted space weather activity for the next 3 days. Available: via SWPC Anonymous FTP server ftp.swpc.noaa.gov /pub/latest/daypre.txt --- most recent report /pub/forecasts/daypre --- last 75 reports via SWPC Web site: http://swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/latest/daypre.txt http://swpc.noaa.gov/ftpmenu/forecasts/daypre.html See http://swpc.noaa.gov/Data/ for other SWPC data and products. *************************************************************** ** Please read the SWPC Disclaimer at http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ ** before using the forecasts and data in these reports. *************************************************************** SWPC provides near-real-time and recent data, solar and geomagnetic indices and solar event reports created from preliminary reports. Preliminary data may contain errors or be revised after further review. The historical products in this SWPC Warehouse are the preliminary reports as originally published. SWPC does not encourage the use of preliminary data for research purposes. Links to archive sites with final data: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/Data/ ****************************************************************** Please send comments and questions to SWPC.Webmaster@noaa.gov Report problems to SWPC.CustomerSupport@noaa.gov ========================================================== Sample: :Product: 3-day Space Weather Predictions daypre.txt :Issued: 2008 Jan 02 2203 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # 3-day Space Weather Predictions # :Prediction_dates: 2008 Jan 03 2008 Jan 04 2008 Jan 05 :Geomagnetic_A_indices: A_Fredericksburg 6 8 8 A_Planetary 8 10 10 # # Predicted 3-hour Middle latitude k-indices :Pred_Mid_k: Mid/00-03UT 2 3 3 Mid/03-06UT 2 3 3 Mid/06-09UT 2 2 2 Mid/09-12UT 2 2 2 Mid/12-15UT 2 2 2 Mid/15-18UT 1 1 1 Mid/18-21UT 1 1 1 Mid/21-00UT 1 1 1 # # Predicted 3-hour High latitude k-indices: :Pred_High_k: High/00-03UT 2 2 2 High/03-06UT 1 2 2 High/06-09UT 3 3 3 High/09-12UT 3 3 3 High/12-15UT 2 3 3 High/15-18UT 2 2 2 High/18-21UT 1 2 2 High/21-00UT 1 1 1 # # Probability of Geomagnetic conditions at Middle Latitude :Prob_Mid: Mid/Active 10 15 15 Mid/Minor_Storm 1 5 5 Mid/Major-Severe_Storm 1 1 1 # # Probability of Geomagnetic conditions at High Latitudes :Prob_High: High/Active 20 25 25 High/Minor_Storm 5 10 10 High/Major-Severe_Storm 1 1 1 # # Polar Cap Absorption Forecast :Polar_cap: green # # Solar :10cm_flux: 85 87 90 # :Whole_Disk_Flare_Prob: Class_M 10 10 10 Class_X 5 5 5 Proton 1 1 1 # # Region Flare Probabilities for 2008 Jan 03 # Region Class C M X P :Reg_Prob: 2008 Jan 02 0980 70 10 5 1 ========================================================== Description Geomagnetic_A_Indices Predicted daily geomagnetic A-index for Fredericksburg, VA, and daily planetary A-index, predicted for the next 3 days. Pred_Mid_k, Pred_Hi_k, Prob_Mid, Prob_High Probability forecast of geomagnetic conditions for middle and high latitudes. The values indicate the probability for at least one 3-hour K index, at the indicated level, for each of the next 3 days. Active: K = 4 Minor storm: K = 5 Major or Severe storm: K >; 6 Polar_cap PCAF: A 24-hour forecast of a polar cap absorption (PCA) event. The PCA forecasts are color coded: PCAF Green: No active sunspot region on the Sun is likely to produce a PCA event in the 24 hours. PCAF Yellow: A sunspot region showing characteristics favorable for producing a PCA event is present on the Sun. If an energetic flare occurs in this region, the probability of a significant PCA event is very high. PCAF Red: An energetic solar event has occurred or a proton event has been observed at satellite altitudes, and there is a high probability that a significant PCA event will result within the next 24 hours. In Progress: A significant PCA event is in progress at forecast time. SOLAR 10cm_flux Predicted daily values of the 10.7 cm flux. Whole_Disk_Flare_Prob Class M and class X: Probability forecast of the occurrence of one or more class-M or class-X x-ray events for each of the next 3 days. Proton flare: Probability forecast of a significant proton event at satellite altitudes (at least 10 pfu at energies greater than 10 MeV) for each of the next 3 days. Region_Prob Class C, M, and X flare: Probability forecast of the occurrence of one or more x-ray flares for the day listed. Proton flare: Probability forecast of a flare that will cause a significant proton event at satellite altitudes (at least 10 pfu at energies greater than 10 MeV).