Transportation Services Index (TSI) Rose 1.6 Percent
in March from February
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BTS 21-07
Dave Smallen
202-366-5568 |
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Wednesday, May 9, 2007 - The Transportation Services Index
(TSI) rose 1.6 percent in March from its February level, rising
after two months of decline, the U.S. Department of Transportation's Bureau
of Transportation Statistics (BTS) reported today (Table 1).
The
March increase was only the fourth increase in the past 12 months but it was
the largest monthly increase since February 2004 (Table 2). The index is 1.0 percent
below its peak in May 2006.
The index rose 0.8
percent in the first quarter, the fourth consecutive December-to-March increase
(Table 3).
The
March level of 111.0 for the combined freight and passenger index was 0.1 percent
higher than the March 2006 level, following a decline from March 2005 to March
2006 (Table 4). The March 2007 level was
11.6 percent higher than the March level of the base year of 2000 (Table 5).
TSI is a single
seasonally adjusted index of the month-to-month changes in the output of
services provided by the for-hire transportation industries, including
railroad, air, truck, inland waterways, pipeline, and local transit.
The index includes historic data
from 1990 to the present. The TSI is still under development and is considered
experimental. The index measures changes from the monthly average of the
base year of 2000. For additional historical data prior to 2004, go to http://www.bts.gov/xml/tsi/src/index.xml.
Release of the April index is scheduled
for June 13.
Transportation Services
Index for Freight
The TSI for freight rose 1.3 percent
in March from the February level, rising after two monthly declines. The rise was the largest monthly increase
since May 2006 (Table 6). The March freight index of 109.1 was
down 1.4 percent from its March 2006 level (Table 7), and down 3.3 percent from
its peak of 112.8 first achieved in January 2005. Year-to-date, the freight
index rose 0.6 percent, following a decline in December-to-March for the
previous year (Table 3).
Transportation Services
Index for Passengers
The TSI for passengers rose 2.5
percent in March from the February level, rising after three months of decline in
the largest monthly increase since March 2005 (Table 8). The Passenger TSI March 2007 level of 113.8
was 2.5 percent higher than the March 2006 level, the fifth consecutive annual increase
since a decline in 2002 (Table 9). Year-to-date,
the passenger index rose 1.3 percent, continuing a string of December-to-March increases
that began in 2003 (Table 3).
1st Quarter Changes
On a
quarterly basis, the combined TSI rose 0.8 percent in the first quarter, rising
for the second consecutive quarter (Table 10). The Freight TSI increased 0.6 percent in the first quarter, rising after
two consecutive quarterly declines. The
freight index has increased in only 16 of the 29 quarters since first quarter
2000 (Table 11). The Passenger TSI rose 1.3
percent in the first quarter, rising after a one quarter decline. The passenger index rose in all but two of
the 15 quarters beginning with the third quarter of 2003 (Table 12).
More on TSI
Note: TSI numbers for November 2006 (Total, Freight, and
Passenger) were revised because of revisions in the output data of the
component transportation services. The November TSI is 108.8, revised from the 109.1
reported in the April release. The November Freight TSI is 107.1, revised from 107.6.
The November Passenger TSI is 113.5, revised from 111.0. The TSI for December, January,
February and March are preliminary.
TSI revision policy: TSI
is updated monthly with the latest four months' index numbers considered
preliminary. Each month BTS releases the latest preliminary TSI, and
replaces the oldest preliminary TSI with a revised TSI. More information
about the revision policy and the TSI index is available at http://www.bts.gov/xml/tsi/src/index.xml.
Table 1:
Transportation Services Index Since September 2006
Percent Change by
Month
(Seasonally Adjusted,
Monthly Average of 2000 = 100)
Excel | CSV
| September |
110.0 |
0.9 |
108.6 |
0.8 |
113.2 |
1.1 |
| October |
110.0 |
0.0 |
108.5 |
-0.1 |
113.5 |
0.3 |
| NovemberR |
108.8 |
-1.0 |
107.1 |
-1.4 |
113.5 |
0.0 |
| DecemberP |
110.1 |
1.2 |
108.4 |
1.3 |
112.4 |
-1.0 |
| JanuaryP |
109.5 |
-0.6 |
107.9 |
-0.4 |
111.4 |
-0.9 |
| FebruaryP |
109.2 |
-0.3 |
107.7 |
-0.2 |
111.0 |
-0.3 |
| MarchP |
111.0 |
1.6 |
109.1 |
1.3 |
113.8 |
2.5 |
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary; R =
revised
NOTE: Percent changes based
on numbers prior to rounding.
Table 2:
Transportation Services Index Monthly Changes, 2004-2007
Percent change from
previous month
Excel | CSV
| January |
-1.4 |
1.5 |
0.3 |
(P) -0.6 |
| February |
2.8 |
-1.4 |
-1.3 |
(P) -0.3 |
| March |
0.7 |
1.5 |
1.3 |
(P) 1.6 |
| April |
0.7 |
0.0 |
-0.3 |
|
| May |
-0.4 |
0.4 |
1.5 |
|
| June |
1.0 |
-0.5 |
-0.3 |
|
| July |
-0.2 |
-0.1 |
-0.4 |
|
| August |
-0.4 |
-0.1 |
-2.1 |
|
| September |
0.5 |
-0.3 |
0.9 |
|
| October |
0.1 |
-0.9 |
0.0 |
|
| November |
0.9 |
1.6 |
(R) -1.0 |
|
| December |
-0.3 |
-0.9 |
(P) 1.2 |
|
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary; R = revised
Table 3: Transportation Services Index Annual Change,
1998-2007
Percent change from December of previous year
December to March
Excel | CSV
| 1998 |
1.1 |
1.8 |
-0.3 |
| 1999 |
2.3 |
2.9 |
0.9 |
| 2000 |
-2.5 |
-5.1 |
3.9 |
| 2001 |
1.0 |
1.3 |
0.4 |
| 2002 |
2.3 |
1.6 |
4.0 |
| 2003 |
-2.0 |
-1.3 |
-3.7 |
| 2004 |
2.0 |
1.9 |
2.3 |
| 2005 |
1.5 |
1.2 |
2.4 |
| 2006 |
0.3 |
-0.3 |
1.4 |
| 2007P |
0.8 |
0.6 |
1.3 |
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary
Table 4:
Transportation Services Index from Year-to-Year
Percent change in the March
TSI
(Monthly average of 2000 = 100)
Excel | CSV
| 1998 |
96.0 |
6.7 |
| 1999 |
99.9 |
4.1 |
| 2000 |
99.5 |
-0.5 |
| 2001 |
99.6 |
0.1 |
| 2002 |
97.1 |
-2.4 |
| 2003 |
100.4 |
3.3 |
| 2004 |
108.0 |
7.6 |
| 2005 |
111.6 |
3.4 |
| 2006 |
110.9 |
-0.7 |
| 2007P |
111.0 |
0.1 |
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary
NOTE: Percent changes based on numbers prior to rounding.
Table 5:
Transportation Services Index from Previous Years
Percent Change to 2007
(March to March)
Excel | CSV
| 0.1 |
2006 |
1 |
| -0.6 |
2005 |
2 |
| 2.8 |
2004 |
3 |
| 10.6 |
2003 |
4 |
| 14.3 |
2002 |
5 |
| 11.5 |
2001 |
6 |
| 11.6 |
2000 |
7 |
| 11.1 |
1999 |
8 |
| 15.6 |
1998 |
9 |
| 23.4 |
1997 |
10 |
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: The percent changes to March 2007 are all
preliminary.
Table 6: Freight
Transportation Services Index Monthly Changes, 2004-2007
Percent change from
previous month
Excel | CSV
| January |
-1.6 |
1.4 |
0.2 |
(P) -0.4 |
| February |
2.6 |
-1.2 |
-1.3 |
(P) -0.2 |
| March |
0.9 |
1.0 |
0.9 |
(P) 1.3 |
| April |
0.6 |
0.0 |
-0.9 |
|
| May |
-0.3 |
0.2 |
2.1 |
|
| June |
0.8 |
-0.5 |
-0.3 |
|
| July |
-0.5 |
-0.5 |
-0.8 |
|
| August |
-0.6 |
0.4 |
-2.7 |
|
| September |
0.5 |
-1.3 |
0.8 |
|
| October |
-0.5 |
-0.6 |
-0.1 |
|
| November |
1.3 |
2.0 |
(R) -1.4 |
|
| December |
-0.4 |
-1.1 |
(P) 1.3 |
|
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary; R =
revised
Table 7: Freight
Transportation Services Index from Year-to-Year
Percent change in the March
Freight TSI
(Monthly average of
2000 = 100)
Excel | CSV
| 1998 |
98.8 |
9.0 |
| 1999 |
102.8 |
4.0 |
| 2000 |
99.8 |
-2.9 |
| 2001 |
99.1 |
-0.7 |
| 2002 |
98.8 |
-0.3 |
| 2003 |
103.1 |
4.4 |
| 2004 |
110.2 |
6.9 |
| 2005 |
112.5 |
2.1 |
| 2006 |
110.6 |
-1.7 |
| 2007P |
109.1 |
-1.4 |
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary
NOTE: Percent changes based
on numbers prior to rounding.
Table 8: Passenger
Transportation Services Index Monthly Changes, 2004-2007
Percent change from
previous month
Excel | CSV
| January |
-1.1 |
1.5 |
0.6 |
(P) -0.9 |
| February |
3.4 |
-2.0 |
-1.3 |
(P) -0.3 |
| March |
0.1 |
2.9 |
2.1 |
(P) 2.5 |
| April |
0.8 |
-0.1 |
0.5 |
|
| May |
-0.7 |
0.8 |
0.5 |
|
| June |
1.6 |
-0.5 |
-0.4 |
|
| July |
0.5 |
0.9 |
0.3 |
|
| August |
0.1 |
-1.3 |
-0.1 |
|
| September |
0.5 |
2.3 |
1.1 |
|
| October |
1.6 |
-1.9 |
0.3 |
|
| November |
-0.2 |
0.4 |
(R) 0.0 |
|
| December |
-0.2 |
-0.4 |
(P) -1.0 |
|
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary; R =
revised
Table 9: Passenger
Transportation Services Index from Year-to-Year
Percent change in the March
Passenger TSI
(Monthly average of
2000 = 100)
Excel | CSV
| 1998 |
89.7 |
1.9 |
| 1999 |
93.5 |
4.3 |
| 2000 |
98.8 |
5.7 |
| 2001 |
100.7 |
2.0 |
| 2002 |
93.3 |
-7.4 |
| 2003 |
94.0 |
0.8 |
| 2004 |
102.6 |
9.2 |
| 2005 |
109.3 |
6.5 |
| 2006 |
111.0 |
1.6 |
| 2007P |
113.8 |
2.5 |
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary
NOTE: Percent changes based
on numbers prior to rounding.
Table 10:
Transportation Services Index Change by Quarter, 1998-2007
Percentage change
from the last month of the previous quarter
Excel | CSV
| 1998 |
1.1 |
1.8 |
-0.9 |
0.9 |
| 1999 |
2.3 |
-0.2 |
2.3 |
0.0 |
| 2000 |
-2.5 |
0.8 |
-0.1 |
-1.6 |
| 2001 |
1.0 |
-0.3 |
-7.3 |
3.3 |
| 2002 |
2.3 |
2.1 |
0.7 |
2.6 |
| 2003 |
-2.0 |
0.2 |
2.1 |
2.9 |
| 2004 |
2.0 |
1.3 |
-0.1 |
0.6 |
| 2005 |
1.5 |
-0.2 |
-0.5 |
-0.3 |
| 2006 |
0.3 |
0.8 |
-1.6 |
(P)
0.1 |
| 2007 |
(P)
0.8 |
|
|
|
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary
Table 11: Freight Transportation
Services Index Change by Quarter, 1998-2007
Percentage change
from the last month of the previous quarter
Excel | CSV
| 1998 |
1.8 |
2.6 |
-1.5 |
0.0 |
| 1999 |
2.9 |
-0.4 |
1.6 |
1.1 |
| 2000 |
-5.1 |
0.5 |
-1.4 |
-1.1 |
| 2001 |
1.3 |
-0.2 |
-1.5 |
-0.1 |
| 2002 |
1.6 |
2.7 |
1.1 |
1.9 |
| 2003 |
-1.3 |
0.3 |
1.0 |
3.5 |
| 2004 |
1.9 |
1.1 |
-0.6 |
0.4 |
| 2005 |
1.2 |
-0.3 |
-1.4 |
0.3 |
| 2006 |
-0.3 |
0.9 |
-2.7 |
(P)
-0.2 |
| 2007 |
(P)
0.6 |
|
|
|
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary
Table 12: Passenger Transportation
Services Index Change by Quarter, 1998-2007
Percentage change
from the last month of the previous quarter
Excel | CSV
| 1998 |
-0.3 |
-0.1 |
0.5 |
2.8 |
| 1999 |
0.9 |
0.3 |
3.7 |
-2.3 |
| 2000 |
3.9 |
1.5 |
2.7 |
-2.5 |
| 2001 |
0.4 |
-0.6 |
-20.9 |
13.2 |
| 2002 |
4.0 |
0.7 |
-0.5 |
4.3 |
| 2003 |
-3.7 |
0.0 |
5.0 |
1.7 |
| 2004 |
2.3 |
1.7 |
1.1 |
1.2 |
| 2005 |
2.4 |
0.2 |
1.9 |
-1.9 |
| 2006 |
1.4 |
0.6 |
1.3 |
(P)-0.7 |
| 2007 |
(P)1.3 |
|
|
|
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary
Brief Explanation
of the TSI
The
Transportation Services Index (TSI) is a measure of the month-to-month changes
in the output of services provided by the for-hire transportation industries.
The
TSI tells us how the output of transportation services has increased or
decreased from month to month. The index can be examined together with other
economic indicators to produce a better understanding of the current and future
course of the economy. The movement of
the index over time can be compared with other economic measures to understand
the relationship of changes in transportation output to changes in Gross
Domestic Product (GDP).
The
TSI is still under development and is therefore considered experimental. It is
being examined for refinements in data sources, methodologies and
interpretations.
The freight transportation index consists of:
For hire
trucking,
Railroad
freight services
(including rail based intermodal shipments such as containers on flat cars),
Inland
waterways transportation,
Pipeline
transportation (including principally petroleum and petroleum products and
natural gas), and
Air
freight.
The
index does not include international or coastal waterborne movements, private
trucking, courier services, or the US Postal Service.
The passenger transportation index consists of:
Local
transit,
Intercity
passenger rail, and
Passenger
air transportation.
The
index does not include intercity bus, sight seeing services, ferry services,
taxi service, private automobile usage, or bicycling and other non-motorized
transportation.
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