Transportation Services Index (TSI) Fell 0.3 Percent in February from January

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Contact BTS 15-07 Dave Smallen 202-366-5568

Wednesday, April 11, 2007 - The Transportation Services Index (TSI) fell 0.3 percent in February from its January level, falling for the second consecutive month, the U.S. Department of Transportation's Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS) reported today (Table 1).

The February decline was the sixth monthly decline in the past nine months and the 20^th decline in the 38 months since January 2004 (Table 2). The index is 2.6 percent below its peak in May 2006.

Year-to-date, the index declined 0.8 percent, the second consecutive December-to-February decline (Table 3).       

The February level of 109.2 for the combined freight and passenger index was 0.2 percent lower than the February 2006 level, the second consecutive decline from February of the previous year (Table 4).  The February 2007 level was 6.5 percent higher than the February level of the base year of 2000 (Table 5).

TSI is a single seasonally adjusted index of the month-to-month changes in the output of services provided by the for-hire transportation industries, including railroad, air, truck, inland waterways, pipeline, and local transit.

The index includes historic data from 1990 to the present.  The TSI is still under development and is considered experimental.  The index measures changes from the monthly average of the base year of 2000. For additional historical data prior to 2004, go to http://www.bts.gov/xml/tsi/src/index.xml.  Release of the March index is scheduled for May 9.

Transportation Services Index for Freight

The TSI for freight fell 0.2 percent in February from the January level, falling for the second consecutive month (Table 6).  The February freight index of 107.7 was down 1.8 percent from its February 2006 level, and down 4.6 percent from its peak of 112.8 first achieved in January 2005 (Table 7). Year-to-date, the freight index declined 0.7 percent, the second consecutive December-to-February decline (Table 3).

Transportation Services Index for Passengers

The TSI for passengers fell 0.3 percent in February from the January level, falling for the second consecutive month (Table 8).  The Passenger TSI February 2007 level of 111.0 was 2.1 percent higher than the February 2006 level, the fifth consecutive annual increase since a decline in 2002 (Table 9). Year-to-date, the passenger index declined 1.2 percent, the third consecutive December-to-February decline and the largest decline in period since 2003 (Table 3).

More on TSI

NOTE:TSI numbers for October 2006 (Total, Freight, and Passenger) were revised because of revisions in the output data of the component transportation services. The October TSI is 110.0, revised from the 110.3 reported in the March release. The October Freight TSI is 108.5, revised from 109.1. The October Passenger TSI is 113.5, revised from 111.3. The TSI for November, December, January and February are preliminary.

TSI revision policy: TSI is updated monthly with the latest four months' index numbers considered preliminary.  Each month BTS releases the latest preliminary TSI, and replaces the oldest preliminary TSI with a revised TSI.  More information about the revision policy and the TSI index is available at http://www.bts.gov/xml/tsi/src/index.xml.

Table 1: Transportation Services Index Since August 2006
Percent Change by Month
(Seasonally Adjusted, Monthly Average of 2000 = 100)

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SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics

NOTE: P = preliminary; R = revised

NOTE: Percent changes based on numbers prior to rounding.

Table 2: Transportation Services Index Monthly Changes, 2004-2007
Percent change from previous month

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SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics

NOTE: P = preliminary; R = revised

Table 3: Transportation Services Index Annual Change, 1998-2007
Percent change from December of previous year
December to February

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SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics

NOTE: P = preliminary

Table 4: Transportation Services Index from Year-to-Year
Percent change in the February TSI
(Monthly average of 2000 = 100)

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SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics

NOTE: P = preliminary

NOTE: Percent changes based on numbers prior to rounding.

Table 5: Transportation Services Index from Previous Years
Percent Change to 2007 (February to February)

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SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics

NOTE:  The percent changes to February 2007 are all preliminary.

Table 6: Freight Transportation Services Index Monthly Changes, 2004-2007
Percent change from previous month

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SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics

NOTE: P = preliminary; R = revised

Table 7: Freight Transportation Services Index from Year-to-Year
Percent change in the February Freight TSI
(Monthly average of 2000 = 100)

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SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics

NOTE: P = preliminary

NOTE: Percent changes based on numbers prior to rounding.

Table 8: Passenger Transportation Services Index Monthly Changes, 2004-2007
Percent change from previous month

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SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics

NOTE: P = preliminary; R = revised

Table 9: Passenger Transportation Services Index from Year-to-Year
Percent change in the February Passenger TSI
(Monthly average of 2000 = 100)

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SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics

NOTE: P = preliminary

NOTE: Percent changes based on numbers prior to rounding.

Brief Explanation of the TSI

The Transportation Services Index (TSI) is a measure of the month-to-month changes in the output of services provided by the for-hire transportation industries. 

The TSI tells us how the output of transportation services has increased or decreased from month to month. The index can be examined together with other economic indicators to produce a better understanding of the current and future course of the economy.   The movement of the index over time can be compared with other economic measures to understand the relationship of changes in transportation output to changes in Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

The TSI is still under development and is therefore considered experimental. It is being examined for refinements in data sources, methodologies and interpretations.

The freight transportation index consists of:

For hire trucking,
Railroad freight services (including rail based intermodal shipments such as containers on flat cars),
Inland waterways transportation,
Pipeline transportation (including principally petroleum and petroleum products and natural gas), and
Air freight.

The index does not include international or coastal waterborne movements, private trucking, courier services, or the US Postal Service.

The passenger transportation index consists of:

Local transit,
Intercity passenger rail, and
Passenger air transportation.

The index does not include intercity bus, sight seeing services, ferry services, taxi service, private automobile usage, or bicycling and other non-motorized transportation.