Transportation Services Index (TSI) Fell 0.9 Percent in February from January
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BTS 16-06
Dave Smallen
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Thursday, April 6, 2006 - The Transportation Services Index (TSI) fell 0.9 percent in February from its January level, falling for the third consecutive month, the U.S. Department of Transportation's Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS) reported today (Table 1).
The last monthly decline that was greater than February's 0.9 percent was a decline in February 2005 of 1.4 percent (Table 2).
For the first two months of 2006, the TSI, a combination of the freight and passenger indexes, fell 1.0 percent, the first decline in the two-month period since 2003 (Table 3).
The February level of 110.2 for the combined freight and passenger index was 0.2 percent higher than the February 2005 level, the fourth consecutive rise from February of the previous year (Table 4). The February level was 7.4 percent higher than the February level of the base year of 2000 (Table 5).
TSI is a single seasonally adjusted index of the month-to-month changes in the output of services provided by the for-hire transportation industries, including railroad, air, truck, inland waterways, pipeline, and local transit.
The index includes historic data from 1990 to the present. The TSI is still under development and is considered experimental. The index measures changes from the monthly average of the base year of 2000. Release of the March index is scheduled for May 9.
Transportation Services Index for Freight
The TSI for freight fell 0.8 percent in February from the January level, falling after a one-month increase (Table 6). The Freight TSI February 2006 level is 0.1 percent lower than the February 2005 level, the first decline from February of the previous year since 2001 (Table 7). For the first two months of 2006, the Freight TSI, fell 0.3 percent, the first decline in the two-month period since 2003 (Table 3).
Transportation Services Index for Passengers
The TSI for passengers fell 1.2 percent in February from the January level, falling for the second consecutive month (Table 8). The Passenger TSI February 2006 level is 1.1 percent higher than the February 2005 level, the smallest increase from February of the previous year since a decline in 2002 (Table 9). For the first two months of 2006, the Passenger TSI, fell 2.4 percent, the second consecutive decline in the two-month period (Table 3).
More on TSI
NOTE: TSI numbers for October 2005 (Total, Freight, and Passenger) were revised because of revisions in the output data of the component transportation services. The October TSI is 109.8, revised from the 110.9 reported in the February release. The October Freight TSI is 109.9, revised from 111.3. The October Passenger TSI is 109.4, revised from 109.7. The TSI for November, December, January and February are preliminary.
TSI revision policy: TSI is updated monthly with the latest four months' index numbers considered preliminary. Each month BTS releases the latest preliminary TSI, and replaces the oldest preliminary TSI with a revised TSI. All other revisions are held until an annual comprehensive revision of the TSI which will be released as part of the following June TSI release. More information about the revision policy and the TSI index is available at
http://www.bts.gov/xml/tsi/src/index.xml.
Table 1: Percent changes in the Transportation Services Index by Month
Since August 2005 (Seasonally Adjusted, Monthly Average of 2000 = 100)
Excel | CSV
| August |
111.2 |
-0.1 |
112.0 |
0.4 |
109.0 |
-1.3 |
| September |
110.8 |
-0.3 |
110.6 |
-1.3 |
111.5 |
2.3 |
| OctoberR |
109.8 |
-0.9 |
109.9 |
-0.6 |
109.4 |
-1.9 |
| NovemberP |
112.2 |
2.2 |
113.2 |
3.0 |
109.5 |
0.0 |
| DecemberP |
111.3 |
-0.8 |
111.8 |
-1.3 |
110.0 |
0.5 |
| JanuaryP |
111.3 |
-0.1 |
112.3 |
0.5 |
108.7 |
-1.2 |
| FebruaryP |
110.2 |
-0.9 |
111.4 |
-0.8 |
107.4 |
-1.2 |
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary; R = revised
Table 2: Transportation Services Index Monthly Changes, 2003-2006
Percentage change from previous month
Excel | CSV
| January |
-1.0 |
-1.4 |
1.5 |
(P) -0.1 |
| February |
-1.9 |
2.8 |
-1.4 |
(P) -0.9 |
| March |
0.9 |
0.7 |
1.5 |
|
| April |
-0.5 |
0.7 |
0.0 |
|
| May |
-0.2 |
-0.4 |
0.4 |
|
| June |
1.0 |
1.0 |
-0.5 |
|
| July |
1.3 |
-0.2 |
-0.1 |
|
| August |
-0.3 |
-0.4 |
-0.1 |
|
| September |
1.1 |
0.5 |
-0.3 |
|
| October |
0.7 |
0.1 |
(R) -0.9 |
|
| November |
-0.1 |
0.9 |
(P) 2.2 |
|
| December |
2.3 |
-0.3 |
(P) -0.8 |
|
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary; R = revised
Table 3: Transportation Services Index Year-to-Date Change, 1997-2006
Percentage change from December of previous year December to February
Excel | CSV
| 1997 |
2.2 |
2.4 |
1.7 |
| 1998 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| 1999 |
1.5 |
1.9 |
0.5 |
| 2000 |
0.5 |
-0.9 |
4.0 |
| 2001 |
0.3 |
0.7 |
-0.4 |
| 2002 |
2.1 |
1.7 |
3.1 |
| 2003 |
-2.9 |
-2.5 |
-3.9 |
| 2004 |
1.4 |
1.0 |
2.2 |
| 2005 |
0.0 |
0.2 |
-0.5 |
| 2006P |
-1.0 |
-0.3 |
-2.4 |
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary
Table 4: Percent changes in the Transportation Services Index from Year-to-Year
February TSI (Monthly average of 2000 = 100)
Excel | CSV
| 1997 |
90.3 |
5.9 |
| 1998 |
95.7 |
6.0 |
| 1999 |
99.1 |
3.6 |
| 2000 |
102.6 |
3.5 |
| 2001 |
98.9 |
-3.6 |
| 2002 |
97.0 |
-1.9 |
| 2003 |
99.5 |
2.5 |
| 2004 |
107.3 |
7.8 |
| 2005 |
110.0 |
2.5 |
| 2006P |
110.2 |
0.2 |
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary
Table 5: Percent Changes in the Transportation Services Index from Previous Years to 2006
February to February
Excel | CSV
| 0.2 |
2005 |
1 |
| 2.7 |
2004 |
2 |
| 10.8 |
2003 |
3 |
| 13.6 |
2002 |
4 |
| 11.4 |
2001 |
5 |
| 7.4 |
2000 |
6 |
| 11.2 |
1999 |
7 |
| 15.1 |
1998 |
8 |
| 22.0 |
1997 |
9 |
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: The percent changes to January 2006 are all preliminary.
Table 6: Freight Transportation Services Index Monthly Changes, 2003-2006
Percentage change from previous month
Excel | CSV
| January |
-1.1 |
-1.6 |
1.4 |
(P) 0.5 |
| February |
-1.4 |
2.6 |
-1.2 |
(P) -0.8 |
| March |
1.2 |
0.9 |
1.0 |
|
| April |
0.7 |
0.6 |
0.0 |
|
| May |
-1.2 |
-0.3 |
0.2 |
|
| June |
0.8 |
0.8 |
-0.5 |
|
| July |
0.5 |
-0.5 |
-0.5 |
|
| August |
-0.1 |
-0.6 |
0.4 |
|
| September |
0.6 |
0.5 |
-1.3 |
|
| October |
1.3 |
-0.5 |
(R) -0.6 |
|
| November |
-0.8 |
1.3 |
(P) 3.0 |
|
| December |
2.9 |
-0.4 |
(P) -1.3 |
|
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary; R = revised
Table 7: Percent changes in the Freight Transportation Services Index from Year-to-Year
February Freight TSI (Monthly average of 2000 = 100)
Excel | CSV
| 1997 |
91.1 |
7.7 |
| 1998 |
98.1 |
7.7 |
| 1999 |
101.8 |
3.7 |
| 2000 |
104.2 |
2.4 |
| 2001 |
98.4 |
-5.6 |
| 2002 |
98.9 |
0.4 |
| 2003 |
101.9 |
3.0 |
| 2004 |
109.2 |
7.2 |
| 2005 |
111.5 |
2.1 |
| 2006P |
111.4 |
-0.1 |
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary
Table 8: Passenger Transportation Services Index Monthly Changes, 2003-2006
Percentage change from previous month
Excel | CSV
| January |
-0.8 |
-1.1 |
1.5 |
(P) -1.2 |
| February |
-3.1 |
3.4 |
-2.0 |
(P) -1.2 |
| March |
0.2 |
0.1 |
2.9 |
|
| April |
-3.7 |
0.8 |
-0.1 |
|
| May |
2.3 |
-0.7 |
0.8 |
|
| June |
1.5 |
1.6 |
-0.5 |
|
| July |
3.4 |
0.5 |
0.9 |
|
| August |
-0.6 |
0.1 |
-1.3 |
|
| September |
2.2 |
0.5 |
2.3 |
|
| October |
-0.7 |
1.6 |
(R) -1.9 |
|
| November |
1.3 |
-0.2 |
(P) 0.0 |
|
| December |
1.1 |
-0.2 |
(P) 0.5 |
|
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary; R = revised
Table 9: Percent changes in the Passenger Transportation Services Index from Year-to-Year
February Passenger TSI (Monthly average of 2000 = 100)
Excel | CSV
| 1997 |
88.3 |
1.9 |
| 1998 |
90.3 |
2.3 |
| 1999 |
93.1 |
3.2 |
| 2000 |
98.9 |
6.1 |
| 2001 |
99.9 |
1.1 |
| 2002 |
92.5 |
-7.4 |
| 2003 |
93.8 |
1.4 |
| 2004 |
102.6 |
9.3 |
| 2005 |
106.2 |
3.5 |
| 2006P |
107.4 |
1.1 |
SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics
NOTE: P = preliminary
Brief Explanation of the TSI
The Transportation Services Index (TSI) is a measure of the month-to-month changes in the output of services provided by the for-hire transportation industries.
The TSI tells us how the output of transportation services has increased or decreased from month to month. The index can be examined together with other economic indicators to produce a better understanding of the current and future course of the economy. The movement of the index over time can be compared with other economic measures to understand the relationship of changes in transportation output to changes in Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
The TSI is still under development and is therefore considered experimental. It is being examined for refinements in data sources, methodologies and interpretations.
The freight transportation index consists of:
For hire trucking,
Railroad freight services (including rail based intermodal shipments such as containers on flat cars),
Inland waterways transportation,
Pipeline transportation (including principally petroleum and petroleum products and natural gas), and
Air freight.
The index does not include international or coastal waterborne movements, private trucking, courier services, or the US Postal Service.
The passenger transportation index consists of:
Local transit,
Intercity passenger rail, and
Passenger air transportation.
The index does not include intercity bus, sight seeing services, ferry services, taxi service, private automobile usage, or bicycling and other non-motorized transportation.
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