Tropical Storm NOEL

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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NOEL ADVISORY NUMBER  14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL162007
1100 PM EDT TUE OCT 30 2007

...NOEL STILL DUMPING HEAVY RAINS OVER CUBA AND HISPANIOLA...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES
OF SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...
GRANMA...HOLGUIN...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
 
INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NOEL.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NOEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.1 WEST OR VERY NEAR
CAMAGUEY CUBA AND ABOUT 255 MILES...405 KM ...SOUTH OF NASSAU.
 
NOEL HAS BEEN MOVING ERRATICALLY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT IS
MOVING GENERALLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR.  A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND NORTH IS EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  ON THIS TRACK...NOEL IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE OFF
OF THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.  
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED WHEN THE CENTER MOVES OVER
WATER.
 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.
 
ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ARE LIKELY WITHIN THE WARNING AREAS.
 
NOEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5
TO 10 INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA....WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTALS
OF 30 INCHES.  TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS.  THESE RAINS...PARTICULARLY IN
HISPANIOLA... ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES.
 
REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION...21.4 N...78.1 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM EDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BLAKE
 
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