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National Situation Update: Saturday, November 19, 2005

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

School Fire burns 2,000 acres in Ventura County northwest of Los Angeles

Pushed by fierce Santa Ana winds, the School Fire, a 4,000-acre wildfire burning between Ventura and Ojai, California, moved slowly toward about 200 large, ridge-top homes Friday, prompting a voluntary evacuation before decreasing winds helped firefighters with their attack. In just a few hours, the wind-driven fire tripled in size, but calmed down in the early evening as a cooler onshore breeze helped decrease winds and temperatures and full containment of the fire was estimated for 6 p.m. Saturday PST.

About 1,200 firefighters and other personnel worked the late-season blaze, first reported around 3:30 a.m. PST in School Canyon, a hilly, rocky area between Ventura and Ojai, about 60 miles northwest of Los Angeles. Although the National Weather Service canceled a wind advisory that had been in effect, forecasters, however, cautioned that the Santa Ana Winds would continue in the area through early Sunday, at 15 to 25 mph with isolated gusts near 35 mph. The cause of the fire was under investigation, but fire officers said the fire started in the area of an oil field facility. One minor firefighter injury was reported. Besides homes, the hills also have a number of oil wells that fire officials were doing their best to avoid and television footage appeared to show at least one structure burned, apparently on an oil field, though fire officials said they had no information.

Most of Southern California was under a red-flag warning, which advises of warm, windy and dry conditions, the Santa Ana Winds and Effects, that could lead to explosive fire growth. The county also issued an air quality health advisory because of smoke in the air.

The US Department of Homeland Security's Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) authorized the use of federal funds to help California fight the School Fire after it was confirmed that the fire threatened 200 residences, damaged two homes and destroyed two commercial properties. The FEMA assistance grant makes FEMA funding available to pay 75 percent of the state's eligible firefighting costs under an approved grant for managing, mitigating and controlling designated fires.

Federal fire management assistance is provided through the President's Disaster Relief Fund and made available by FEMA to assist in fighting fires that threaten to cause a major disaster. (USDA/USFS-NIFC, FEMA Region IX, FEMA HQ, NWS, and Various Media Sources)

Santa Ana Event

Extremely critical fire weather area for Southern California could negatively impact the current School Fire in Ventura County, CA. An amplified upper pattern will remain over the continental US (CONUS) today highlighted by a long wave trough over the central and eastern states and upper ridging across the west. Expansive high pressure will extend from the Rockies to the southeast states with dry conditions prevalent over much of CONUS. Continuance of offshore pressure gradient will keep a heightened fire danger across Southern California.

Very strong Santa Ana winds and low relative humidity and warm temperatures will result in an extreme fire danger is expected across Southern California through Sunday/Monday, 20-21 November 2005 with the culmination of a Santa Ana Event. Very strong and gusty Santa Ana winds, potentially gusting to 40-60 mph in canyons and passes, will be ongoing during this period. The Santa Ana scenario is attributable to a strong offshore pressure gradient accompanied by ample upper support via a mid level cold convection/subsidence in wake of a southern Rockies upper trough. As the intermountain high pressure weakens during the day, the pressure gradient will begin to relax accordingly. Even so, rather strong/gusty offshore winds will continue much of the day in the presence of a warm dry air mass with afternoon temperatures in the 80s, critical relative humidity values will be as low as 7-12 percent this afternoon away from the immediate coast and recoveries will remain very poor tonight through Saturday morning. Within the next 24-48 hours, an amplified large scale pattern will remain over CONUS into the weekend.

Several upper impulses moving southeastward across the Plains will reinforce the long wave trough over the central and eastern states with upper ridging persisting in the west. Surface high pressure will dominate the western half of the country with fast moving cold front advancing across the upper Midwest on Saturday. As a result, the Santa Ana event will continue through Saturday and early Sunday, although offshore pressure gradient should be somewhat   weaker than Friday. Locally gusty winds will exist through much of the day, especially Saturday morning and again Saturday night through and below the mountain passes and canyons. In addition to the locally gusty winds, persistent offshore trajectories will support afternoon temperatures in the upper 70s/80s with low 7-12 percent relative (RH) humidity minimums inland and poor RH recovery overnight.  (USDOC/NOAA/NWS, FEMA Region IX, and Various Commercial and Media Sources)

TS Gamma - Possible US East Coast Nor'Easter Thanksgiving Week

Tropical Storm Gamma, the 24th named storm of the record-breaking Atlantic season, regenerated from what had been Tropical Depression 27 Friday afternoon over the northwestern Caribbean Sea.

Forecasters are watching this storm closely along with another storm coming down from Canada. These two systems may merge together somewhere across the deep south late in the weekend. The merger will create the ingredients and the possibility for a large US East Coast Nor'Easter that has the potential to move up the east coast early next week producing heavy rain from the southeast to New England and gales along the coast. In addition, the storm has the potential to tap into and draw in colder air from the north, causing rain to turn to wet, heavy snow in the Appalachians.

If these conditions developed and presented themselves in January or February, the middle of winter, the forecasters would be talking about an eastern blizzard. If all of the ingredients and conditions are met, the result will be heavy rain, gales on the coast, and perhaps snow in the Appalachian Mountains as this large upheaval in the atmosphere will have major impact on the flow across all of North America.

Of great significance will be the release of an extremely cold air mass from arctic regions and that air will charge southward in the wake of the storm later in the week, producing one of the coldest ends to November in many years that will impact a large area from the deep south all the way to New England when a strong jet stream from the north intercepts a tropical low pressure system to the south. Following this event will be an intense blast of arctic air, the coldest coming late in the week. This will trigger lake-effect snowstorms that will bury many of the "Snowbelts."  (USDOC/NOAA/NWS/SPC and Various Commercial Sources)

Florida Prepares for Gamma

Florida: The State EOC is activated at Level 2, partial activation. The State was activated at Level 2 for previous Hurricane Wilma recovery operations.  Activation for TS Gamma will begin November 19, 2005.  The hours of operations will be 7:00 AM to 7:00 PM EST. The State is monitoring TS Gamma and is in contact with their counties.  A conference call with the National Hurricane Center and their counties was held November 18, 2005.  The State is reviewing the situation and preparing for possible impact within the next few days.

Federal Actions: The NRCC has not been activated; the White NRCC Team is on call for November as is the Red ERT-N. The Regional Response Coordination Center (RRCC) in Thomasville, GA has deactivated for the severe storms and tornadoes.  The RRCC Level 3 will activate November 19, 2005, for TS Gamma.  Hours of operations over the weekend will be 9:00 AM to 6:00 PM (minimum staff) unless the situation changes.  Rosters have been reviewed for potential activation in connection with the KY severe storms and tornadoes. The RRCC staff has participated on conference calls with the National Hurricane Center, Region IV management, and the FL State EOC. A FEMA Region IV Response Liaison will report to the FL State EOC November 19, 2005. RRCC staff will participate on conference calls as necessary. (FEMA Region IV, FEMA HQ, and the State of Florida)

Severe Storms in Region IV - Update

Kentucky:  The Kentucky Emergency Operations Center deactivated at 4:00 PM EST, November 18, 2005, a duty officer will be on call after hours. The KY National Guard will remain activated in the affected area through Sunday, November 20, 2005.  There are 13 guard personnel in Marshall County and 97 in Hopkins County to support security operations. Marshall, Hopkins, Union and Henderson (City of Henderson) Counties issued local proclamations of emergencies.  An Executive Order declaring a State of Emergency was issued by the Governor and remains in effect.

Nine (9) individuals are sheltered in hotels in Marshall County; 20 are sheltered at Pride Elementary in Hopkins County.  Some individuals are staying with families and friends.  In Benton, an elderly couple with special needs was moved to a local hotel, and the Marshall County Health Department is assessing their medical needs. The American Red Cross (ARC) has set up feeding sites in the areas; a Family Assistance Center at East Marshall County Fire Department Station 1 and in Hopkins County at the Covenant Church; and has provided 2,500 meals during the last 24 hours.  The Kentucky Community Crisis Response Board and the Pennyrile Behavioral Health have provided outreach services to 213 people in the Madisonville area and 5 teams are providing services in the Madisonville/Earlington area.

All major roadways are cleared and there are no major traffic problems, except secondary roadways and some smaller roads remain blocked by debris and areas where utility crews are working in the area. Utilities restoration is essentially complete, except for those unable to accept the power due to damages.

The National Weather Service has assessed the tornado in Marshall County as an F3 and the one in Hopkins County as an F4.

On November 18, 2005, the State Director of Kentucky Division of Emergency Management requested a joint FEMA-State preliminary damage assessment (PDA) for Individual Assistance in Marshall and Hopkins Counties and IA PDAs will be conducted November 19, 2005, as requested. The Response Liaison has departed the Kentucky EOC. 

Tennessee: The State EOC did not activate for this event. The State has notified Region IV that they will submit a declaration request to the Small Business Administration.  All local needs are being met at this time.   (FEMA Region IV)

National Weather Summary

Across the East, lake-effect snow showers continued across western and central portions of New York; most snowfall totals so far today generally ranged from one to four inches. Elsewhere, an upper-level trough brought scattered snow showers across the Lower Peninsula of Michigan and western Indiana where snowfall amounts across this region generally ranged up to three inches. Meanwhile, high pressure continued to dominate the remainder of the East with partly cloudy to mostly clear skies, dry conditions, and below-normal temperatures. Low temperatures ranged from the teens and 20s across the Great Lakes, Midwest, and Ohio Valley; 20s and 30s across the Northeast, Tennessee Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and Southeast; 30s and 40s across the Gulf Coast; and 40s to 70s across Florida.

Over the western two-thirds of the nation, a strong ridge of high pressure continued to provide partly cloudy to mostly clear skies with dry conditions across the Plains, Rocky Mountains, Desert Southwest and Pacific Coast. Low temperatures this morning ranged from teens and 20s across the western Great Lakes and Intermountain West; 20s and 30s across the northern and central Plains and the Mississippi Valley; 30s to 40s across Texas, southern Rockies and Pacific Northwest; and 40s and 50s across the Desert Southwest and California.

Fronts In The Nation: A cold front lies across the Florida Keys. A warm front lies across extreme northern Minnesota.

Short-Term National Weather Forecast: In the East, lake-effect snow showers will once again develop across the Great Lakes region and parts of the Northeast where the best areas of snow will be along Lake Erie and Lake Michigan, where two to five inches of new snow will be possible.

Elsewhere, a stationary front lying across southern Florida will likely produce scattered rain showers and thunderstorms, but no severe weather is expected, and rainfall amounts will remain under a quarter of an inch. Otherwise, high pressure will provide partly cloudy skies and fair conditions through the rest of the region. Highs will reach into the 30s and 40s in the Northeast, the Great Lakes, the Ohio Valley and the Mid-Atlantic region; into the upper 40s and 50s in the Tennessee Valley and much of the Southeast; and into the 60s and the lower 80s across Florida.

In the central part of the country, a cold front will push through parts of the northern and central Plains, bringing variably cloudy skies, gusty winds and the chance for rain and snow showers to the region, but any snowfall accumulations will be light. Winds will turn out of the northwest at 15 to 20 mph, gusting to near 40 mph at times. As for the southern Plains and the Mississippi Valley, mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies and dry conditions can be expected and highs will reach into the 30s and 40s in the northern Plains and the upper Mississippi Valley; into the upper 40s and 50s in the central and southern Plains, and the Middle and Lower Mississippi Valley.

In the West, a broad ridge of high pressure will dominate much of the region, allowing for mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies and fair conditions. However, gusty conditions can be expected across the northern high Plains and across southern California where winds will be sustained at 15 to 25 miles-per-hour, gusting to near 50 mph at times. Highs will reach into the 40s and 50s in the high Plains, the Rocky Mountain region, the Great Basin and the Pacific Northwest; and ranging from the 60s to the lower 80s across California and the Desert Southwest. (USDOC/NOAA/NWS and Various Commercial Sources)

Longer-Term National Forecast

Northeast: Much of the Northeast will enjoy a slightly milder weekend with high temperatures ranging from the 30s and 40s north to 60s in Virginia. On Sunday, a new storm will develop over the Southeast and bring a chilly rain into the Mid-Atlantic on Monday. The increasingly windy and intensifying storm will race northward Monday night and Tuesday through Virginia, Pennsylvania, and New York bringing potentially heavy rain and strong winds to the Northeast. Cold air will rapidly wrap in behind the storm changing the rain to snow from the Appalachians westward by later Tuesday. It will become more wintry by midweek and many locations, especially away from the coast will may have a white Thanksgiving.

South: Major changes will occur across the Southeast by Sunday as a strong disturbance aloft interacts with stalled front off the coast. The result will be more clouds and showers over the South from the Texas Gulf Coast to the Tennessee Valley, the Carolinas, and Florida. By Monday, as an upper-level low dives into the Deep South, a developing storm in the Southeast will begin to head northward and a tropical system, separate from TS Gamma, over the northwest Caribbean could even be drawn northward into Florida. Much of the Southeast will be wet Monday with a soaking rain and cool temperatures. Cold air will be drawn southward behind the exiting Southeast storm Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday, bringing some snow to the southern Appalachians. The Southern Plains and parts of Texas will be milder.

Midwest: A storm system will ride through the northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Saturday resulting in gusty winds along with light rain and snow showers. By Sunday, light showers and snow flurries will extend from the Mississippi Valley and lower Missouri Valley to Michigan. On Monday and Tuesday, a potent cold front will sweep southward from Canada across the region. Temperatures will remain above average across the Plains but go sharply below average from the Mississippi Valley eastward. Snow showers will dominate the northern Mississippi Valley, Great Lakes and Ohio Valley with substantial snow possible around the Great Lakes.

West: The West will remain dry and mild for quite awhile as high pressure aloft holds on across the region. Temperatures will be above average, occasionally up to 20 degrees above average in Montana.

The stagnant conditions will persist in the Pacific Northwest with more low clouds and fog for the valleys of Washington, Oregon, and Idaho. The offshore winds in California will gradually relax over the next 4 days, but the fire danger will remain high. Highs will again reach the 80s around Los Angeles and San Diego. (USDOC/NOAA/NWS and Various Commercial Sources)

US Volcanoes

Alaska: Seismic activity is monitored in real time at 28 volcanoes in Alaska and s satellite images of all Alaskan volcanoes are analyzed daily for evidence of ash plumes and elevated surface temperatures.  Of the 28 volcanoes monitored by the Alaskan Volcano Observatory, four (25 percent), are assessed as YELLOW or that the volcano is restless; eruption may occur. These volcanoes are the Mount Spurr Volcano, Cleveland Volcano, Tanaga (Island) Volcano, and Mount Veniaminof Volcano.

Wrangell, Redoubt, Iliamna, Augustine, Snowy, Griggs, Katmai, Novarupta, Trident, Mageik, Martin, Peulik, Aniakchak, Pavlof, Dutton, Isanotski, Shishaldin, Fisher, Westdahl, Akutan, Makushin, Okmok, Great Sitkin, Kanaga, and Gareloi volcanoes are in color code GREEN or that the volcano is dormant; normal seismicity and fumarolic activity is occurring.  All are at or near normal levels of background seismicity. AVO did not detect ash plumes or significant elevated surface temperatures in the vicinity of any volcano.  (The Alaska Volcano Observatory is a cooperative program of the U.S. Geological Survey, the University of Alaska Fairbanks Geophysical Institute, and the Alaska Division of Geological and Geophysical Surveys)

Cascades Range: Mount St. Helens Update - The current status is Volcano Advisory (Alert Level 2); aviation color code ORANGE: Growth of the new lava dome inside the crater of Mount St. Helens continues, accompanied by low rates of seismicity, low emissions of steam and volcanic gases, and minor production of ash.

All other volcanoes in the Cascade Range are all at normal levels of background seismicity. These include Mount Baker, Glacier Peak, Mount Rainier, and Mount Adams in Washington State; Mount Hood, Mount Jefferson, Three Sisters, Newberry, and Crater Lake, in Oregon; and Medicine Lake, Mount Shasta, and Lassen Peak in northern California.  (USGS Cascades Volcano Observatory, the Pacific Northwest Seismograph Network at the University of Washington, and the USGS Northern California Seismic Network and Volcano Hazards Team in Menlo Park, California)

Hawaii: There is no significant volcanic and/or seismic activity on going in the Hawaiian Islands at the present time.  Kilauea, Mauna Loa, Hualalai, Haleakala, and Lo`ihi are currently quiescent.  (US Geological Survey's Hawaiian Volcano Observatory)

Long Valley, California: Long Valley Caldera a 15- by 30-km oval-shaped depression located 20 km south of Mono Lake along the east side of the Sierra Nevada in east-central California. The current condition is GREEN (background activity within the caldera posing no Immediate Risk for volcanic activity in the area).  (US Geological Survey's Long Valley Volcano Observatory)

Yellowstone National Park: There is no significant volcanic and/or seismic activity on going in the Yellowstone National Park Caldera at the present time.  The caldera is currently quiescent and Earthquake activity in the Yellowstone region is at relatively low background levels.  (US Geological Survey's Yellowstone Volcano Observatory and the University of Utah)

Northern Mariana Islands: Anatahan Volcano-For the week ending November 14, 2005 Anatahan has not produced significant amounts of ash and seismicity has been at background levels amounting to a few percent of the late June 2005 maximum.  Anatahan Volcano is located 120 km (75 miles) north of Saipan Island and 320 km (200 miles) north of Guam. The island is about 9 km (5.6 miles) long and 3 km (2 miles) wide. Anatahan is a stratovolcano that contains the largest known caldera in the Northern Mariana Islands.  (US Department of the Interior, U.S. Geological Survey, Menlo Park, California)

Wild Fire Update Friday, November 18, 2005

National Preparedness Level 1 - Current Situation: Initial attack activity was moderate nationally with 1,502 new fires reported for the week. 58 new large fires were reported, 47 in the Southern Area, 10 in the Eastern Area and one in the Southern California Area. 55 large fires were contained, 45 in the Southern Area and ten in the Eastern Area. Very high to extreme fire indices were reported in California, Nevada, Nebraska, and South Dakota. (USDA/USFS and NIFC)

Tropical Activity

For the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico: Tropical Storm Gamma is moving slowly away from the coast of Honduras. At 4:00 a.m. EST, 0600Z, November 19, 2005, the center of Tropical Storm Gamma was estimated near latitude 16.9 north longitude 86.2 west or about 140 miles, 255 km, east-southeast of Belize City and about 245 miles, 390 km, south-southeast of Tulum, Mexico moving toward the northwest near 6 mph, 9 km/hr and maximum sustained winds near 45 mph, 75 km/hr, with higher gusts.  A slight increase in strength is possible during the next 24 hours.  Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles, 165 km, mainly to the north from the center. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb or 29.68 inches.  Some erratic motion may also occur due to weak steering currents.

A tropical storm warning is in effect for the entire coast of Belize and for the bay islands of Honduras.  A tropical storm watch is in effect for the eastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from the Belize-Mexico border northward to Punta Allen.  Interests elsewhere in the northwestern Caribbean Sea should monitor the progress of Gamma. Tropical Storm Gamma is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 6 to 10 inches over Belize, Western Cuba, and the eastern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches.  Additional rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches are possible over northwestern Honduras.

The dynamical models are unanimous in forecasting an extra-tropical low pressure system to form over the southeastern US in a little more than two days in association with a developing mid-latitude trough over the eastern half of the US.  The wind shear will only get stronger as the trough develops over the southeastern US and the Gulf of Mexico during the next 2-3 days.  Therefore, conditions do not appear conducive for significant strengthening and intensification to a hurricane seems rather unlikely in this environment.  The forecast is for little change in the intensity for the next 2-3 days and peaks at about 52 mph.

Gamma could make landfall near Flamingo, Florida about 25 miles north of Long Key between 8:00 and 10:00 p.m. Monday, November 21, 2005.  The storm will exit into the Atlantic between Miami and Fort Lauderdale, Florida between 1:00 and 2:00 a.m. Tuesday, November 22, 2005.  By Wednesday, November 23, 2005, Gamma will have become extra-tropical and absorbed by larger extra-tropical system that could contribute to the development of a major Nor'Easter during Thanksgiving week. 

Another complex non-tropical area of low pressure is located about 700 miles northeast of the Leeward Islands and is producing some winds to near gale force.  However, shower activity associated with this system has decreased significantly today and development into a subtropical or tropical cyclone during the next couple of days appears unlikely. This upper level low is located roughly near 24 north and 54 west in warm enough water to become an organized tropical feature over the weekend. However, satellite images show no trend toward this just yet. If thunderstorms start forming around the center of this system that could be a sign that it is trying to become a tropical system.  Elsewhere, tropical storm formation is not expected through Saturday.

For the Eastern North Pacific East of 140 Degrees West Longitude: Tropical storm formation is not expected through Saturday.

For the Central North Pacific Between 140W and 180: No tropical cyclones are expected through Sunday morning.

Western Pacific: 182100Z  (3:00 p.m./1500 EST) position near 15.4N 126.0E for Tropical Storm (TS) 24W (BOLAVEN); approximately 320 nm east of Manila, Philippines, has tracked west-northwestward at 9 knots over the past six hours tracking into an increased vertical wind shear environment. The synoptic environment and dynamical models are indicating an increased possibility that TS 24W may get absorbed into the mid-latitude Westerlies over the South China Sea.  (USDOC/NOAA/NWS/NHC and Various Commercial Sources)

Earthquake Activity

A light earthquake occurred at 0:1:18:39Z on Saturday November 19, 2005.

The magnitude 4.4 event has been located in southern Alaska 25 miles southwest of Palmer AK and 20 miles north of Anchorage AK.  The earthquake was felt strongly in Palmer, Eagle River, and Anchorage, AK.  The magnitude is such that a Tsunami will not be generated.  (USDOI/USGS and FEMA Operations Center)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

Joint FEMA-State preliminary damage assessment (PDA) for Individual Assistance in Marshall and Hopkins Counties Kentucky will be conducted November 19, 2005.  (Region IV)

Disaster Declaration Activity

FEMA-1609-FL-DR - Florida; Amendment No. 5 to Notice of a Major Disaster Declaration -  EFFECTIVE DATE:  November 18, 2005.  Notice is hereby given that the incident period for this disaster is closed effective November 18, 2005. (FEMA HQ)