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National Situation Update: Sunday, August 31, 2008

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Significant National Weather

South
Scattered showers and storms are expected along the southeastern seaboard with isolated storms occurring elsewhere in the region. High temperatures are forecast from the upper 70s in far southwest Texas to the upper 90s in the Dallas-Ft. Worth area, and low to mid-90s in the lower Mississippi Valley.
Northeast
There is a possibility of isolated showers and thunderstorms in Virginia and northern Maine. Skies will be sunny to partly cloudy throughout the region with temperatures near to above seasonal norms. Highs are forecast to range from the mid-70s in northern Maine to the upper 80s in central Virginia.
Midwest
Gusty southerly winds will push warm temperatures northward over the Plains and Upper Midwest. High temperatures are forecast to range from the low 80s on Michigan's Upper Peninsula, the mid to upper 80s in the Lower Midwest, and the mid-90s in parts of the Dakotas.
West
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will occur in the Interior West on Sunday, from western Montana and the mountains of central Idaho southward into New Mexico and Arizona, and over parts of western Washington and western Oregon. Gusty winds are forecast in Montana, across the northern Great Basin and along the coasts of southern Oregon and northern California. Temperatures will be below end-of-August norms over most of the region with highs ranging from the 40s in Glacier National Park to the upper 90s in portions of the Mojave Desert. Death Valley may peak near 110 degrees. (NWS, Media Sources)

Current Weather Impacts from Gustav

Locally heavy rainfall is possible as rainbands on the far outer periphery of Hurricane Gustav move across especially Western portions of mainland south Florida. Due to already saturated ground, and the potential for several inches of rain, A Flood Watch has been issued for Glades, Hendry, Collier, and mainland Monroe counties. This watch is in effect through 8 pm EDT Sunday.

The chances for thunderstorms will continue high as ample moisture continues across the region. The greatest chances for thunderstorms are expected to be Sunday and Monday. Heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and cloud to ground lightning are expected to be the main impact.(NWS)

Hurricane Gustav Federal / State Preparations

FEMA NRCC:
NRCC is activated to Level I, 24/7 operations (Watch and all Emergency Support Functions) beginning Sunday, 0700. The National IMAT-East deployed to Baton Rouge, LA. The Hurricane Liaison Team (HLT) is activated and deployed to the National Hurricane Center.

FEMA Region IV:
RRCC is activated at Level I, 24/7 with all ESFs reporting. Region IV ERT-A is deployed to AL EOC in Clanton, Alabama. Initial Operating Facility (IOF) remains operational at the State Logistics Warehouse in Orlando, Florida. The Joint Field Office (JFO) for DR-1785-FL is operational in Orlando, FL. Region IV-IMAT in place at the EOC in Jackson, Mississippi. The Mississippi Transitional Recovery Offices (MS TRO) initiated COOP activities and are moving operations to Clinton, MS.

Mississippi:
A Federal Emergency Declaration was declared due to Hurricane Gustav, August 28, 2008, and continuing. This Emergency Declaration provides emergency protective measures (Category B), including direct Federal assistance, under the Public Assistance program at 75 percent Federal funding. Governor Barbour declared a state of emergency on Thursday, August 28. The EOC is activated to Level 1 (full activation). Beginning Sunday in Harrison, Hancock and Jackson counties, mandatory evacuations begin for people living in FEMA travel trailers, FEMA mobile homes, MS cottages and residents in designated flood hazard zones. Contra-flow is scheduled to begin on Sunday; however the timing may be adjusted. 400 persons are currently in 4 shelters; an additional 16 shelters are ready to open.

Alabama:
An Emergency Declaration was declared due to Hurricane Gustav, August 29, 2008, and continuing. This Emergency Declaration provides emergency protective measures (Category B), including direct Federal assistance, under the Public Assistance program at 75 percent Federal funding.  This assistance is for all 67 counties in the State. The State EOC is activated to Level I with 24/7 operations on Sunday, with all ESFs on site. The Governor declared a State of Emergency on Friday. Volunteer evacuations for Baldwin and Mobile counties are underway; none are mandatory at this time. Shelters opened today with a 44,000 person capacity. State will take 4,000 Louisiana evacuees.

Florida:
EOC is now at Level I operations and monitoring the progress of Tropical Storm Hanna.

Georgia:
The State EOC is now activated at Level I.  The State has established shelters along two Interstate corridors.

Kentucky:
The EOC is activated at Level I (monitoring). Two State LNOs are deployed to the LA Warm Cell.
24 shelters have been set-up in Kentucky and Tennessee to accept evacuees.

FEMA Region VI:
FEMA Region VI RRCC is at Level I, with 24 hour operations. All ESF representatives and partners are activated. The pre-designated FCO for Texas and the Region VI IMAT is co-located with DEM in Austin. FEMA-3289-EM-Louisiana: Emergency Declaration signed on August 29. PA (Category B) to include direct Federal assistance for all 64 parishes. FEMA-3290-EM-Texas: Emergency Declaration signed on August 29. PA (Category B), to include Direct Federal Assistance for 61 counties.  Two FEMA-State Liaisons are deployed to the Louisiana EOC. The FEMA Region X ERT-A deployed to Baton Rouge to link up with the LWC August 29. Region VI deployed four Parish Liaisons to the Louisiana Warm Cell (LWC) in Baton Rouge to pre-stage. The LWC is working closely with the State regarding evacuation, sheltering and other response issues. All MERS equipment has been pre-staged in Austin, Houston, Bossier City, and Carville. Preliminary Damage Assessment (PDA) teams are on stand-by.

Louisiana:
GOHSEP activated the EOC at Level II. 54 out of 64 parishes have declared a state of emergency. The Governor announced that mandatory evacuations began Saturday for seven parishes. Three additional parishes will begin mandatory evacuations Sunday. Voluntary evacuations are ongoing in Jefferson Parish. The Governor announced today that Central LA contra-flow plan is on-track to begin Sunday morning and run through midnight Sunday. Two people shelters and two pet shelters opened Saturday in Alexandria and Shreveport.  Total capacity 5,000 people and 4,000 pets.

Texas:
Texas State Operations Center (SOC) is at full activation today. The IOF is operational in Austin, TX.
4 FEMA State Liaisons are onsite at the Texas SOC in Austin. The State SOC reported that evacuation of medical special needs by air and ground began Saturday in the Beaumont/Port Arthur area.  Mandatory evacuations are scheduled to begin on Sunday. Shelters began opening today, and general population evacuation and mandatory evacuations will begin Sunday. The State is also preparing to accept 10,000 special needs evacuees from Louisiana to six cities throughout Texas. Texas will receive 10,000 Louisiana evacuees by air beginning Sunday morning. 4,100 Dallas; 4,100 San Antonio; 500 Amarillo; 500 Lubbock. Preparing to shelter a total of 45,000 evacuees from Louisiana.

FEMA Region III:
The Region is at Level II activation. The Region is planning to fully staff the RRCC in preparation for TS Hanna and is the lead for Operational Planning with other regions and east coast states.  Two USNORTHCOM planners arrived Saturday. OPB Future Planning is supporting planning efforts.

Gulf Oil and Gas Operations Begin Shut-in

Offshore oil and gas operators in the Gulf of Mexico are evacuating platforms and rigs in the path of Hurricane Gustav. 

Based on data from offshore operator reports submitted Saturday, personnel have been evacuated from a total of 223 production platforms, equivalent to 31.1 % of the 717 manned platforms in the Gulf of Mexico.  Personnel from 45 rigs have also been evacuated; this is equivalent to 37.2 % of the 121 rigs currently operating in the Gulf

From the operators' reports, it is estimated that approximately 76.77 % of the oil production in the Gulf has been shut-in. 

Estimated current oil production from the Gulf of Mexico is 1.3 million barrels of oil per day.  It is also estimated that approximately 37.16 % of the natural gas production in the Gulf has been shut-in. Current gas production from the Gulf is estimated at 7.4 billion cubic feet of gas per day.  

After the hurricane has passed, facilities will be inspected. Once all standard checks have been completed, production from undamaged facilities will be brought back on line immediately. Facilities sustaining damage may take longer to bring back on line.(Minerals Management Service monitors activity through COOP Plan)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic/Caribbean:
Hurricane Gustav
At 5:00 a.m. EDT, the center of Hurricane Gustav was located about 425 miles southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River.
Gustav is moving toward the northwest near 16 mph, and this motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days with some decrease in forward speed expected on Monday.  On this track Gustav will be moving across the central Gulf of Mexico today, and make landfall on the northern Gulf Coast on Monday.
 
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 125 mph, with higher gusts.  Gustav is a Category Three hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale.  Some re-strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours, and Gustav could regain Category Four strength later today or tonight. Fluctuations in strength are likely, but Gustav is forecast to remain a major hurricane until landfall. 
 
Gustav is a large tropical cyclone.  Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 50 miles from the center, and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 200 miles.
 
The latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft is 958 mb.

Gustav is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 6 to 12 inches over portion of Louisiana...southern Mississippi and southern Arkansas...with isolated maximum amounts of up to 20 inches possible through Wednesday morning.   Additional rainfall amounts of about an inch are possible over Florida Keys and South Florida.  Isolated tornadoes are possible over the central Gulf Coast later today.

Tropical Storm Hanna
At 5:00 a.m. EDT, the center of Tropical Storm Hanna was located about 180 miles northeast of Grand Turk Island. Hanna is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph. A west to west-north-westward motion is expected with a gradual decrease in forward speed during the next couple of days.  On the
forecast track, the center of Hanna is expected to move near or northeast of the Turks and Caicos Islands later today or Monday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph with higher gusts.  Some fluctuations in strength are possible during the next couple of days. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 205 miles from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb.

Long-period swells from Hanna are expected to increase the risk of dangerous rip currents along portions of the southeastern United States coast during the next couple of days.

Invest 97
A broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave located about 100 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands is showing signs of organization. Conditions appear to be conducive for development and a tropical depression could form during the next couple of days as it moves westward at 10 to 15 mph.  This system is expected to bring showers and squalls to the Cape Verde Islands today and early on Sunday.
Tropical Wave
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms are associated with a tropical wave located about 1100 miles east of the Leeward Islands. Upper-level winds are only marginally favorable, and any development of this system should be slow to occur as it moves westward at 10 to 15 mph.
Eastern Pacific:
Tropical Cyclone activity is not expected during the next 48 hours.
Western Pacific:
There is no current tropical cyclone activity at this time.(NOAA, HPC, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Wildfire Preparedness Level: 3
National fire activity as of Saturday, August 30, 2008 was light with 87 new fires and three new large fires in Idaho and Utah. Firefighters contained five large fires in Idaho, Utah, Oregon, and Montana.
Seventeen large fires remain uncontained in OR, CA, WY, CO, NV, UT, ID, MT, NJ, NM, and TN.
Fire Weather Discussion: Strong, gusty winds and low humidity expected over the Sierras, the Great Basin to Montana, Wyoming and western Colorado. Red Flag Warnings are in effect for most of Nevada, central California, and the San Francisco Bay area through at least Sunday. Thunderstorms are expected over portions of Idaho, Montana, southern California, and the Great Basin. (NIFC, NOAA)

Disaster Declaration Activity

Mississippi:
On August 30, 2008, the President signed Emergency Declaration FEMA-3291-EM for the State of Mississippi for Hurricane Gustav, beginning August 28, 2008 and continuing. The declaration provides Public Assistance (Category B), including direct Federal assistance, for all 82 counties in the state. The FCO is Michael L. Parker of the National FCO Program.

Alabama:
On August 30, 2008, the President signed Emergency Declaration FEMA-3292-EM for the State of Alabama for Hurricane Gustav, beginning August 29, 2008 and continuing. The declaration provides Public Assistance (Category B), including direct Federal assistance for all 67 counties in the state. The FCO is W. Michael Moore of the National FCO Program.

Florida:
Effective August 29, 2008, Amendment No. 4 to Major Disaster Declaration FEMA-1785-FL added the Counties of Calhoun, Duval, Jefferson, Liberty, Putnam, and St Johns as eligible for Public Assistance for adverse affects from Tropical Storm Fay.  (FEMA HQ)