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National Situation Update: Saturday, August 30, 2008

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Significant National Weather

Northeast
Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are forecast from New England to Virginia. A warming trend and dry conditions are forecast for the remainder of the week.
South
Isolated thunderstorms are expected across much of the region. Rain and thunderstorms will increase over Florida, especially the southern half, as Gustav crosses Cuba and moves into the eastern Gulf. Tropical storm watches are in place for the lower Florida Keys.
Midwest
South-to-southwest winds will increase from Kansas to the Dakotas and Minnesota, bringing unseasonably high temperatures in the 80s and 90s.
West
Scattered thunderstorms will develop from southeast California to New Mexico. The clouds and scattered thunderstorms will keep Phoenix below 100 and much of New Mexico 5-to-15-degrees below average in the 70s and lower 80s. High temperatures will be 5 to almost 20 degrees above average from Montana, Wyoming and northern Colorado to central California, while in the Northwest a cold front will cause temperatures 5 to 15 degrees below average in Washington and Oregon. The cold front will continue to move through the West next week. Red Flag Warnings are in effect through this evening for most of Nevada and Wyoming, and parts of California, Idaho, Montana, and South Dakota.

Hurricane Gustav Federal / State Preparations

FEMA NRCC:
NRCC is activated to Level II, 24/7 operations (Watch plus all Emergency Support Functions). The National IMAT-East re-deployed from DNC in Denver, CO to Baton Rouge, LA. The Hurricane Liaison Team (HLT) is activated and deployed to the National Hurricane Center.
FEMA Region IV:
RRCC is activated at Level I, 24/7 (all ESFs except 14). Region IV ERT-A is deployed to AL EOC in Clanton, Alabama. The Joint Field Office (JFO) is operational in Orlando, FL. Region IV-IMAT in place at the EOC in Jackson, Mississippi. The Mississippi Transitional Recovery Offices (MS TRO) initiated COOP activities and are moving operations to Clinton, MS.

Mississippi:
The Governor has requested a Federal Emergency Declaration on August 29. Governor Barbour declared state of emergency on Thursday, August 28. The EOC is activated to Level 1 (full activation). Voluntary evacuations are scheduled for today and mandatory evacuations on Sunday.  Contra-flow will begin on Sunday.

Alabama:
The Governor requested a Federal Emergency Declaration on August 29. The State EOC activated, going to Level II at 7:00 a.m. on Saturday, August 30 and to Level I on Sunday, August 31. The Governor declared a State of Emergency on Friday.
Volunteer evacuations are scheduled for today; shelters to open today with a 44,000 person capacity. Mandatory evacuations scheduled for Sunday. No additional requirements for Federal support.

Florida:
The EOC is at Level II (Partial Activation). The State continues to monitor Tropical Storm Hanna.

Georgia:
The EOC is activated at Level II. The State has established shelters along two interstate corridors.

Kentucky:
EOC is activated at Level I (monitoring). Two State LNOs have deployed to the LA Warm Cell.
Louisville, KY is prepared to host 4,000 evacuees by air.

FEMA Region VI:
The FEMA Region VI RRCC remains at Level I, 24/7, with all ESFs except 14. FEMA-3289-EM-Louisiana: Emergency Declaration was signed on August 29. PA (Category B) to include direct Federal assistance for all 64 parishes. The Louisiana Warm Cell (LWC) is coordinating with the State regarding evacuation, sheltering and other response issues. Two FEMA-State Liaisons have deployed to the Louisiana EOC. The FEMA Region X ERT-A deployed to Baton Rouge to link up with the LWC August 29. Region VI has deployed four Parish Liaisons to the LWC in Baton Rouge to pre-stage 
Region VI-IMAT is onsite at the IOF in Austin, Texas. The IMAT Section Chiefs are positioned in the Texas SOC.

FEMA's Gulf Coast Recovery Office (GCRO) and the Louisiana Transitional Recovery (LA TRO) initiated COOP activities and are moving operations to the JFO in Baton Rouge, LA. Denton MERS will complete the pre-staging of the bulk of their assets in Austin, TX and Barksdale AFB, Louisiana Saturday. Preliminary Damage Assessment (PDA) teams are on stand-by.

Louisiana:
GOHSEP is activated the EOC at Level II. 19 parishes have declared a state of emergency. The State of Louisiana is planning for worst case scenario in which the whole coast of the State will be affected. Many coastal parishes have begun voluntary evacuations. Air evacuation is scheduled to begin on August 31. Medical special needs shelters are beginning to open; the Governor announced 2,000 total medical special needs beds available. Two critical needs identified by the State are the need for increased shelter capacity and transportation for pets. Governor of Louisiana has activated a total of 3,381 NG troops to perform missions which include transportation, security, assistance with contra-flow and search and rescue. The remainder of the Guard has been alerted Friday, making a total of 7,000 troops available to support preparation and response efforts, if necessary. Two mega shelters will open in Alexandria and Shreveport on Saturday. 

Texas:
FEMA-3290-EM: Emergency Declaration was signed on August 29. Includes PA (Category A and B), to include Direct Federal Assistance for 61 counties.

Texas State Operations Center (SOC) is at full activation today. The IOF is operational in Austin, TX. 4 FEMA State Liaisons are onsite at the Texas SOC in Austin.

The State of Texas is planning for two scenarios.  The first is the impact of a Category 4 hurricane somewhere along the coast of Texas.  The second is the potential sheltering of up to 50,000 self evacuees and 10,000 air evacuees from Louisiana.

The State of Texas has requested activation of the FEMA National Ambulance Contract for 60 ALS Ambulance Strike Teams of five Ambulances each, 25 rotary or fixed wing aircraft and 3,500 Para-transit seats. The Federal Medical Station (FMS) to support 250 bed Special Medical Special Needs Shelter supporting the treatment and support of acute, non-surgical, non-traumatic, non-chronic patients for no longer than five days.

Beaumont Regional Airport is to begin air evacuation operations this morning, and end the operations by Sunday.  It is to be prepared to evacuate approximately 500 patients to Dallas, TX and El Paso. 369 buses are staged at San Antonio and an additional 219 buses are staged and available. (FEMA Regions IV and VI, LA and TX State EOCs)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic/Caribbean:
Hurricane Gustav
At 5:00 a.m. EDT, the eye of Hurricane Gustav was located about 135 miles southeast of the Isle of Youth and about 255 miles East-southeast of the western tip of Cuba.
 
Gustav is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph. This motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days.  On this track the center of Gustav will be near western Cuba later today, and move into the southern Gulf of Mexico early Sunday. 
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph, with higher gusts.  Gustav is a category two hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale.  Recent satellite images indicate that Gustav is strengthening quickly and it could become a category three hurricane at any time before reaching Cuba. Further strengthening is possible in the southern Gulf of Mexico. Gustav is a large tropical cyclone. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 60 miles from the center, and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 160 miles. The latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance plane is 965 mb.
 
Coastal storm surge flooding of 2 to 5 feet above normal tide levels is possible in the Cayman Islands, with 14 to 19 feet possible near where the center of Gustav crosses western Cuba, including the Isle of Youth. Gustav is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 6 to 12 inches across the Cayman Islands, and central and western Cuba, with isolated maximum amounts of up to 25 inches possible.  Rainfall of 1 to 3 inches is possible over Florida Keys and extreme South Florida by Sunday morning.

At 5:00 a.m. EDT, the government of Jamaica discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for Jamaica. A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the Cayman Islands, and the western Cuban provinces. A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the central Cuban provinces. A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the lower Florida Keys west of Key West, to the Dry Tortugas, and for the central Cuban Provinces. A tropical storm watch remains in effect for the lower Florida Keys west of the Seven Mile Bridge to Key West

Tropical Storm Hanna
Hanna is heading westward with little change in strength. Interests in the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas should monitor the progress of Hanna.
 
At 5:00 a.m. EDT, the center of Tropical Storm Hanna was about 240 miles north of San Juan Puerto Rico and about 310 east of Grand Turk Island.
 
Hanna is moving toward the west near 12 mph. A gradual turn to the west-northwest is expected later today followed by a turn back to the west on Sunday.
 
Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph, with higher gusts.  Little change in strength is forecast today but Hanna could be near hurricane strength on Sunday.
 
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 115 miles, mainly to the northeast of the center. Rain bands associated with Hanna could produce rainfall accumulations of 1 to 2 inches across portions of the Leeward Islands.
Invest 97
A broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave located about 100 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands is showing signs of organization. Conditions appear to be conducive for development and a tropical depression could form during the next couple of days as it moves westward at 10 to 15 mph.  This system is expected to bring showers and squalls to the Cape Verde Islands today and early on Sunday.
Tropical Wave
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms are associated with a tropical wave located about 1100 miles east of the Leeward Islands. Upper-level winds are only marginally favorable, and any development of this system should be slow to occur as it moves westward at 10 to 15 mph.
Eastern Pacific:
Tropical Cyclone activity is not expected during the next 48 hours.
Western Pacific:
There is no current tropical cyclone activity at this time. (NOAA, HPC, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Fire Activity as of Friday, August 29, 2008: the National Wildfire Preparedness Level: 3
Initial attack activity was light, with 109 new fires and one new large fire in Idaho. Firefighters contained the Mayberry and Lone fires in Colorado and the Corner Canyon in Utah. Nineteen large fires remain uncontained in OR, CA, WY, CO, NV, UT, ID, MT, NJ, NM, TN, and AZ.
Fire Weather Discussion: Offshore winds will subside today in northern California, but it will remain quite hot and dry inland. Winds will also diminish over Montana and Wyoming with generally dry weather over most of the West. A few thunderstorms are possible over the southern Sierra Mountains and southern California.  (NIFC)

Disaster Declaration Activity

Louisiana: On August 29, 2008, the President signed Emergency Declaration FEMA-3289-EM for the State of Louisiana for Hurricane Gustav beginning August 27, 2008 and continuing. The declaration provides Public Assistance (Category B), including direct Federal assistance for all 64 parishes in the state. The FCO is Michael J. Hall of the National FCO Program.

Texas: On August 29, 2008, the President signed Emergency Declaration FEMA-3290-EM for the State of Texas for Hurricane Gustav beginning August 27, 2008 and continuing. The declaration provides Public Assistance (Category B), including direct Federal assistance for all 61 counties in the state. The FCO is Sandy Coachman of the National FCO Program.

Mississippi: The Governor of Mississippi has requested an emergency declaration as a result of Hurricane Gustav beginning on August 28, 2008, and continuing. The Governor is specifically requesting Public Assistance (Categories A & B), including direct Federal assistance, for the entire State.

Alabama: The Governor of Alabama has requested an emergency declaration as a result of Tropical Storm Gustav beginning on August 29, 2008, and continuing. The Governor is specifically requesting Public Assistance (Categories A & B), including direct Federal assistance, for the entire State.
Texas: Effective September 1, 2008, Amendment No. 3 to FEMA-3284-EM for wildfires in the State of Texas establishes the incident period for this event as March 14 through September 1, 2008. (FEMA HQ)