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National Situation Update: Friday, August 29, 2008

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Significant National Weather

Northeast
Remnant moisture from former Tropical Storm Fay will bring showers and thunderstorms to the Northeast and the Mid-Atlantic, particularly Upstate New York. The cold front will weaken this weekend, causing scattered showers closer to the East Coast on Saturday. Sunday will be mainly dry.
South
Showers and thunderstorms will stretch from western Texas and Oklahoma through northern Arkansas and Tennessee and into North Carolina. Tropical Storm Gustav is expected to become a hurricane and enter the Gulf of Mexico this weekend, affecting the U.S. Gulf Coast by Monday night or Tuesday.
Midwest
Showers and thunderstorms are forecast from Michigan down to the Ohio Valley and into the Central Plains. The weekend will be primarily dry, but south-to-southwest winds will increase over the Plains. A cold front may cause scattered thunderstorms in North Dakota Sunday.
West
A cold front from the Pacific will create showers over western Washington, while isolated-to-scattered thunderstorms are expected in parts of Colorado, New Mexico and Arizona. Highs will range from the warm 80s across the lower elevations of Montana, Wyoming, Colorado and New Mexico to the 110s in the Desert Southwest, and well over 100 in the Central Valley of California.
On Saturday, the cold front will continue to move into the Northwest; ahead of the front highs will peak in the 90s in eastern Montana, but behind the front afternoon temperatures will dip into the 40s and 50s in Montana and Wyoming, and the 50s to 70s across Washington. The northern Rockies will turn much colder, and by early next week snow will fall in the highest elevations.  (NWS, HPC, Media Sources)

Tropical Storm Gustav Federal / State Preparations

FEMA NRCC:
NRCC is activated to Level 2, 24/7 operations (watch plus selected Emergency Support Functions). National IMAT-East will re-deploy from the DNC in Denver, CO to Baton Rouge, LA today. The Hurricane Liaison Team (HLT) is activated and deployed to the National Hurricane Center.

FEMA Region IV:
RRCC is activated at Level II 7:00 a.m. to 7:30 p.m. EDT (Will activate to Level I beginning today at 7:00 a.m.). Region IV ERT-A deployed to AL EOC in Clanton, Alabama. The Initial Operating Facility (IOF) remains operational at the State Logistics Warehouse in Orlando, Florida. The Joint Field Office (JFO) is operational in Orlando, FL. Region IV-IMAT in place at the EOC in Jackson, Mississippi. The Mississippi Transitional Recovery Offices (MS TRO) initiated COOP activities and are moving operations to Clinton, MS.

Mississippi:
EOC is activated at Level III (Partial Operations w/MEMA agencies only). Will activate to Level I (full activation) at 7:00 a.m. today. Voluntary evacuations are scheduled to start on Saturday and mandatory evacuations on Sunday. Contra-flow will begin on Sunday. State is reviewing Host State Memorandums of Agreements and Understanding (MOA and MOU).

Alabama:
EOC is activated at Level IV (normal operations). Will activate to Level III (employee standby) beginning today. State has elected not to receive evacuees because of severe damage to the State by Tropical Storm Fay and the potential impacts of Tropical Storms Gustav and Hanna. Voluntary evacuations are scheduled to start on Saturday and mandatory evacuations on Sunday.

Florida:
EOC is at Level II (Partial Activation). Monitoring Tropical Storm Hanna.

Georgia:
EOC is activated at Level I (monitoring). The State has elected not to receive evacuees because of severe damage to the State by Tropical Storm Fay and the potential impacts of Tropical Storms Gustav and Hanna.

Kentucky:
EOC is activated at Level I (monitoring) and Preparing evacuee reception plan. Four members of the National Preparedness Division staff have deployed to Louisiana to serve as Parish Liaisons. Two State LNOs are deployed to the LA Warm Cell.

FEMA Region VI:
Level II - 24 hour operation. Region VI IMAT is deploying to Austin today to start planning with TX. FEMA's Gulf Coast Recovery Office (GCRO) and the Louisiana Transitional Recovery (LA TRO) initiated COOP activities and are moving operations to the JFO in Baton Rouge, LA. Denton MERS will pre-stage the bulk of their assets in Austin, TX and Barksdale AFB, Louisiana on Friday and Saturday.

Louisiana:
GOHSEP is activated the EOC at Level II. The Governor has requested a major disaster declaration as a result of Hurricane Gustav beginning on August 27, 2008, and continuing. National ERT-N is expected to deploy on Saturday and link up with the Warm Cell.  Denton MERS has provided one Initial Response Vehicle (IRV) and PKU (Band Satellite) and three personnel to support the National IMAT. 3,466 NG troops are on active duty performing missions which include transportation, security, assistance with contra-flow and search and rescue.

The City of New Orleans has made preparations to execute its city evacuation plans, which includes 130 buses at H-65. Alexandria and Shreveport shelters have been identified for special needs evacuees and outfitted Thursday. Shelters will activate on Saturday. Per the South East Louisiana Task Force call at 7:00 p.m. Thursday, it was stated that some parishes will begin voluntary evacuations as early as Friday. Mandatory evacuations are being planned for Saturday. Contra-flow could begin Saturday. Per the South West Louisiana Task Force call at 8:00 p.m. Thursday, it was stated that some parishes will consider voluntary evacuations as early as Friday. Decisions for mandatory evacuations will be made tomorrow pending the latest information on Gustav.

Texas:
Texas State Operations Center (SOC) is activated at Level 1 (Emergency Operations) The Governor of Texas requested a pre-landfall emergency declaration as a result of Tropical Storm Gustav beginning on August 27 and continuing. The Initial Operating Facility (IOF) is operational in Austin, TX. FEMA State Liaisons will deploy to the Texas SOC on Friday. Texas is preparing for an impact of a major hurricane as well as preparing to receive up to 50,000 evacuees from Louisiana. Texas is planning for
H-0, which is Arrival of Tropical Storm Winds, to occur on Monday, September 1, 2008 at 3:00 p.m. CDT. The State has activated its Alamo Regional Command to provide logistic support and staging areas. Potential hospital and nursing home evacuations may begin late Friday. (Region IV, Region VI, Louisiana Unified Command Group Meeting)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic/Caribbean:
Tropical Storm Gustav
Gustav near the southwestern coast of Jamaica heading toward the Cayman Islands.  Hurricane warnings remain in effect for Jamaica and the Cayman Islands. 

At 5:00 a.m. EDT, the center of Tropical Storm Gustav was about 85 miles west of Kingston Jamaica and about 220 miles east-southeast of Grand Cayman.
 
Gustav is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph. A turn toward the northwest is forecast on Saturday. On this track, the center of Gustav will leave Jamaica in the next few hours, move near or over the Cayman Islands later today, and approach western Cuba on Saturday.
 
Maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours, and Gustav is expected to become a hurricane later today or tomorrow. Gustav could become a major hurricane before reaching western Cuba. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles from the center.
 
Coastal storm surge flooding of 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels can be expected in areas of onshore winds in the Hurricane Warning area.
 
Gustav is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 6 to 12 inches across Jamaica and the Cayman Islands, with isolated maximum amounts of up to 25 inches possible.  These rains will likely produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. Rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches are possible over southern Cuba. 

Tropical Storm Hanna
At 5:00 a.m. EDT, the center of Tropical Storm Hanna was located about 245 miles north-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands. Hanna is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph. A motion between west-northwest and northwest, away from the Leeward Islands, is expected during the next day or so. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph, with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast today but Hanna could become a hurricane in a couple of days. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 50 miles from the center. Rain bands associated with Hanna could produce rainfall accumulations of 1 to 2 inches across portions of the Leeward Islands.

Tropical Wave (Area 1)
A large tropical wave accompanied by a broad low pressure system is producing limited shower activity about midway between the West Coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Any development of this system during the next couple of days is expected to be slow to occur as it moves westward at 10 to 15 mph.

Tropical Wave (Area 2)
A well-defined tropical wave is located along the West Coast of Africa. This system is showing signs of organization, and some gradual development is possible over the next couple of days as it moves westward at 10 to 15 mph.

Area 3
Shower activity over the Bay of Campeche has diminished. Development of this system, if any, should be slow to occur during the next 2 days.

Remnant of Tropical Depression Fay
The remnants of Fay are expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 1 to 2 inches with locally higher amounts through Friday morning across portions of northeastern North Carolina, Virginia, western Maryland, western Pennsylvania, and the eastern West Virginia panhandle.

This is the last public advisory for the remnants of Fay issued by the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center. 

Eastern Pacific:
Tropical Cyclone activity is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Western Pacific:
There is no current tropical cyclone activity at this time. (NOAA, HPC, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

Oregon: A magnitude 4.5 earthquake occurred Thursday, August 28, at 11:47 a.m. EDT off the coast of Oregon, approximately 97 miles north-northwest of Port Orford, OR and 145 miles northwest of Crescent City, CA at a depth of 6.2 miles. There were no reports of damage or injuries and a tsunami is not expected.

British Columbia, Canada: A magnitude 5.9 earthquake occurred Thursday, August 28, at 11:47 a.m. EDT off the coast of Vancouver Island, British Columbia, Canada, about 193 miles west of Campbell River, British Columbia, and 295 miles west northwest of Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada at a reported depth of 6.2 miles. There have been no reports of damage or injury and a tsunami is not expected. This earthquake follows a series of 26 earthquakes magnitude 3.9 to 5.3 that occurred in the same region over the last two days. (USGS/NEIC, Pacific, West Coast & Alaska Tsunami Warning Centers)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Disaster Declaration Activity

The Governor of Louisiana is requesting an emergency declaration as a result of Hurricane Gustav beginning on August 27 and continuing. The Governor is specifically requesting Public Assistance (Category B), including direct Federal assistance for the entire State.

The Governor of Texas is requesting an emergency declaration as a result of Tropical Storm Gustav beginning on August 27 and continuing.  The Governor is specifically requesting Public Assistance (Categories A & B), including direct Federal assistance for 61 counties. (FEMA HQ)