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National Situation Update: Thursday, August 14, 2008

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Significant National Weather

West:
A low pressure system will generate showers and thunderstorms over Montana and Wyoming today.  A Red Flag Warning remains in effect until Saturday for the cascades of northwest Oregon and south Washington.  Temperatures over the Pacific Northwest are expected to be above-average.  Oregon and Washington temperatures are expected to rise into the 90s and lower 100s Friday through Sunday.  High temperatures are expected to range from the 60s along the northwest California coast to over 100 in the Mojave and Sonoran Deserts. 
Midwest:
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast for the Midwest and Plains, with the most severe shower activity projected for Nebraska and Kansas.  High temperatures are expected to range from the 70s in northeast Minnesota to the 80s in Kansas.  Flood Warnings continue for the Red River at Fargo in Minnesota and North Dakota.  Recent rainfall in the southern Red River Valley is causing the Red River to rise above flood stage.
South:
Showers and thunderstorms are expected along the Florida Peninsula; heavy downpours are forecast along a stalled front.  Isolated showers and storms are expected in Oklahoma, Texas, Georgia and the Carolinas.  A Flood Warning remains is in effect for the St. Marks River in Florida.  High temperatures are forecast to range from the 80s in the Carolinas to the upper 90s in Florida.
Northeast:
Scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms are forecast for the region today.  Rainfall amounts in Maryland, Virginia and West Virginia will average a quarter of an inch.  Thunderstorms may also produce brief wind gusts to 30 mph.  High temperatures are forecast to range from the 70s in northern Maine to the 80s in Virginia.(National Weather Service, Media Sources)

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

Nothing significant to report.  (FEMA HQ)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic/Caribbean:
Invest 92: An area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave is centered about 175 miles east of the Leeward Islands and is moving westward at about 10 mph.  The showers and thunderstorms accompanying this system have become a little more concentrated during the past several hours.  Upper-level winds are gradually becoming more conducive for development and could become a Tropical Depression today or tomorrow.
Invest 93: A very broad area of low pressure is located about 1,350 miles east of the Lesser Antilles.  Shower activity associated with this system remains limited and disorganized and development is expected to be slow.

Eastern Pacific:
Tropical Storm Iselle: At 5:00 a.m. EDT the center of Tropical Storm Iselle was located about 375 miles south-southeast of the southern tip of Baja, California.  Iselle is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph, maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph with higher gusts.  Little change in strength is forecast during the next couple of days.  Tropical Storm force winds extend outward up to 35 miles from the center.

Invest 95: An area of low pressure is located about 900 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja, California.  The low has a well-defined surface circulation and, despite relatively strong upper-level winds, the associated thunderstorm activity has increased during the past several hours.  The upper-level winds are forecast to become a little more conducive for development during the next couple of days and this system could become a Tropical Depression on Thursday or Friday.  Little overall motion of this system is expected during the next couple of days.

Central Pacific:
A weak tropical disturbance, the remnant of former tropical cyclone Kika, is located nearly 1,700 miles west-southwest of Honolulu, Hawaii. This system, which is moving westward at about 15 mph, has left the central north Pacific Ocean after crossing the dateline into the northwest Pacific Ocean.

Western Pacific:
Tropical Depression 11w: The center of Tropical Depression 11w is located 197 miles southwest of Nagasaki, Japan and is moving northeast at 14 mph.  Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph with higher wind gusts. (NOAA, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

A 5.6 magnitude earthquake occurred in the Northern Mariana Islands on Wednesday, August 13, 2008 at 8:06 p.m. EDT.  The depth was 26.6 miles, 85 miles east of Anatahan, no injuries were reported and a Tsunami is not expected.
A 4.6 magnitude earthquake occurred in the Dominican Republic on Wednesday, August 13, 2008 at 7:03 p.m. EDT. The depth was 3.2 miles, 14 miles north-northwest from Nagua, María Trinidad Sánchez, Dominican Republic, no injuries were reported. (USGS, Pacific Tsunami Warning Center)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Fire Activity as of Wednesday, August 13, 2008:
National Wildfire Preparedness Level: 4
Initial attack activity: Light (182 new fires)
New large fires: 1 (NM)
Uncontained large fires: 26
Large fires contained: 5
States with Large fires: AZ, CA, ID, MT, NM, NC, OR, TX, WA and WY
Hot and dry weather conditions will develop today along the West Coast. Wet and dry thunderstorms are possible in Montana and Wyoming. (NIFC, CAL Fire)

Disaster Declaration Activity

Texas: Amendment #4 to FEMA-1780-DR adds Jim Hogg County for Public Assistance. (FEMA HQ)