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National Situation Update: Tuesday, August 12, 2008

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Significant National Weather

West:
Under high pressure most of the region will be dry.  Isolated thunderstorms are forecast for parts of southern and eastern Colorado, New Mexico and southeast Arizona.  High temperatures will range from the 60s along the coast north of Point Conception and in the higher mountain ranges to over 100 in the Mojave and Sonoran Deserts.
Midwest:
A frontal boundary will produce showers and thunderstorms from Minnesota and western Wisconsin down to eastern Kansas and Missouri.  High temperatures will range from the upper 60s in northeast Minnesota to the low 90s in southwest Kansas.
South:
A front extending from Texas across the Gulf Coast states and exiting off the coast of South Carolina will continue to produce widespread showers and thunderstorms.  The heaviest precipitation is forecast along the northern Louisiana border with total accumulations of over three inches.  Precipitation will move eastward into Alabama and into Georgia by the end of the day.  High temperatures will range from the mid-70s over central Mississippi and Alabama to near 100 in the lower Rio Grande Valley.
Northeast:
A low pressure system off the New England coast and a trough of low pressure aloft will produce showers and thunderstorms over eastern New York State and New England.  Parts of Upstate New York and northern Pennsylvania may have isolated thunderstorms.  High temperatures will range from the mid-60s in northern Maine to the upper 80s in south-central Virginia.(National Weather Service, Media Sources)

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

Nothing significant to report.  (FEMA HQ)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic/Caribbean:
A broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave is located over the central Atlantic Ocean about 750 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. Associated shower and thunderstorm activity has been gradually increasing and a tropical depression could form during the next day or so as the system moves west-northwestward at about 15 mph.  An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system later today - if necessary.

A large and complex area of disturbed weather is located over the eastern Atlantic extending from near the Cape Verde Islands west-southwestward for several hundred miles. This system continues to show signs of organization and a tropical depression could form within this area during the next day or two as it moves westward at about 10 mph.

Eastern Pacific:
Tropical Storm Hernan
Hernan continues to weaken. At 5:00 am EDT the center of Tropical Storm Hernan was located about 1,505 miles west of the southern tip of Baja California. Hernan is moving toward the west near 9 mph.  A turn toward the west-southwest is expected later today. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph with higher gusts.  Additional weakening is forecast during the next 24 hours and Hernan could become a tropical depression later today.  Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles from the center.

Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure located about 150 miles south of Acapulco remain limited. Development of this system, if any, is expected to be slow to occur as it moves west-northwestward at about 10 to 15 mph.

An area of low pressure is located about 750 miles west-southwest of Manzanillo Mexico.  While upper-level winds are not especially favorable this system has a well-defined surface circulation and some slow development is still possible during the next couple of days as it moves southwestward at about 10 to 15 mph.

Central Pacific:
Tropical Depression Kika
Kika  is dissipating. At 5:00 am EDT the center of Tropical Depression Kika was located about 1,130 miles southwest of Honolulu Hawaii. The dissipating depression is moving toward the west near 16 mph and this should be the general motion of the remnant low over the next couple of days. No further public advisories will be issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center unless regeneration occurs.

Western Pacific:
No tropical cyclone activity. (NOAA, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Fire Activity as of Monday, August 11, 2008:
National Wildfire Preparedness Level: 4
Initial attack activity: Light (186 new fires)
New large fires: 7 (AZ, ID, NV, UT, TX)
Uncontained large fires: 36
Large fires contained: 3 (CA, OK, MT and NM)
States with Large fires: AZ, AR, CA, ID, MT, NV, NC, OR, TX, UT, WA and WY
California remains the most active with 10 large fires and complexes.  435,071 acres have burned throughout the northern part of the state.
Wildfire - Craig Fire, Butte County, CA: 2,001 acres burned; 95% containment.  The fire continues to move north and northeast. Fire crews will continue to improve the containment lines around the fire.  Residences and cultural sites are still threatened.  Minimal fire behavior.  Evacuations and road closures are in place.  (CAL Fire)

Disaster Declaration Activity

New Hampshire: The President signed a Disaster Declaration, FEMA-1782-DR-NH, for severe storms, tornado and flooding on July 24, 2008. Three counties (Belknap, Carroll, and Rockingham) are eligible for Public Assistance. All counties in the State of New Hampshire are eligible to apply for assistance under the Hazard Mitigation Grant Program. The Federal Coordination Officer (FCO) will be Philip E. Parr. (FEMA HQ)