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National Situation Update: Sunday, August 10, 2008

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Significant National Weather

West:
A vigorous upper-level disturbance and cold front will continue to move eastward across the northwest producing showery precipitation across western Washington and northwest Oregon.  Isolated thunderstorms are expected in the eastern Rockies and high Plains producing localized flash flooding.
Severe thunderstorms are forecast in eastern Montana, Wyoming and the Dakotas. 
Midwest:
Eastern Michigan and the eastern Ohio Valley will see showers and a few thunderstorms from the tail end of the system moving into the Northeast.  A thunderstorm complex moving into the lower Mississippi River Valley will produce heavy precipitation from southeast Kansas to Mississippi. Some areas may receive up to three and a half inches of precipitation producing localized flooding. 
South:
As discussed above thunderstorms will produce heavy precipitation from southeast Kansas to northwest Mississippi.  Scattered thunderstorms will develop across Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle.  
Northeast:
A cold upper-level disturbance and cold front will move through the region producing showers and thunderstorms across much of the area.  Heaviest activity is expected north of the Mason-Dixon Line. The downpours are likely to produce flash flooding, especially across Upstate New York and parts of New England. The DelMarVa Peninsula, Delaware and Hudson Valleys, and western New England will have severe thunderstorms with hail and damaging winds.  The showers and thunderstorms will continue into early week.  (National Weather Service, Media Sources)

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

Nothing significant to report. (FEMA HQ)

Alaska Volcano Escalates Earthquake Activity

Current volcanic activity from the Kasatochi Volcano, located about 52 miles east of Adak, Alaska and 55 miles west of Atka, in the Andreanof Islands chain has triggered numerous seismic events in the area.
On Saturday evening, the intensity of eruptive activity over the past several days and large ash clouds observed in satellite images. AVO is keeping the aviation color code and alert level at RED/WARNING until it can be determined that eruptive activity has declined.
AVO is operating 24 hrs / day and monitoring closely.  No reports any damage or injuries. There is a remote possibility that air traffic may be rerouted, but no action is being taken at this time.
Region X will continue to monitor for aftershock activity through the USGS and coordinate with Region X Hazard Mitigation staff to ensure a common operating picture.

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic/Caribbean:
A large tropical wave located over the central Atlantic about 1,300 miles east of the Windward Islands is producing limited and disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  However, upper-level winds are expected to become more favorable for development of this system during the next couple of days as it continues westward at about 15 to 20 mph.

A second area of disturbed weather is located over the far eastern Atlantic about 500 miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. Slow development of this system is possible as it moves westward at about 15 mph. 

Elsewhere, tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hoursAn area of disturbed

Eastern Pacific:
Hurricane Hernan:
At 5:00 am EDT the center of Hurricane Hernan was located about 1,095 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Hernan is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph. A gradual turn toward the west with a decrease in forward speed is expected during the next two days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 100 mph with higher gusts.  Additional weakening is forecast during the next 24 hours and Hernan could drop below hurricane strength later today or early Monday. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 35 miles from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175 miles.

Shower activity associated with a broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec remains disorganized.  However, there is still some potential for this system to become a tropical depression during the next day or two as it moves west-northwestward at about 10 to 15 mph

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a small area of low pressure located about 500 miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico have become a little better organized.  Environmental conditions appear favorable for additional development of this system during the next couple of days as it moves generally westward at about 10 to 15 mph.
 
Central Pacific:
Tropical storm Kika
Kika continues to track west away from the main Hawaiian Islands. at 5:00 am EDT the center of Tropical Storm Kika was located about 805 miles south-southwest of Honolulu Hawaii and about 745 miles southeast of Johnston Island. Kika is moving toward the west near 14 mph and this motion is expected to continue for the next 48 hours. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 50 miles from the center.

Western Pacific:
No tropical cyclone activity. (NOAA, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

On August 9, 2008, at 11:18 a.m. EDT, a magnitude 5.4 earthquake occurred approximately 80 miles west-southwest of Adak, AK, at a depth of 38.3 miles.  No reports of injuries, damage or tsunami.  (USGS)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Fire Activity as of Saturday, August 9, 2008:
National Wildfire Preparedness Level: 4
Initial attack activity: Heavy (368 new fires)
New large fires: 6 (OR, TX and OK)
Uncontained large fires: 35
Large fires contained: 4 (CA, OK, MT and NM)
States with Large fires: AR, CA, ID, MT, NV, NC, OR, TX, UT, WA and WY
California remains the most active with 13 large fires and complexes.  494,452 acres have burned throughout the northern part of the state.
Wildfire - Craig Fire, Butte County, CA: One additional injury reported for a total of five injuries. 2,500 acres burned; 75% containment.  The fire continues to move north and northeast. Fire crews will continue to improve the containment lines around the fire.  Evacuations and road closures are in place.  (CAL Fire)

Disaster Declaration Activity

Illinois:  The Governor of Illinois has requested an Emergency Declaration as a result of Severe Storms and flooding that occurred on August 4, 2008.  The Governor is specifically requesting Emergency Protective Measures (Category B), including direct Federal Assistance under the Public Assistance Program.
Texas:  Amendment No. 3 to FEMA-1780-DR-TX  for Hurricane Dolly that occurred July 22 and continuing adds 6 counties for Public Assistance.  (FEMA HQ)