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National Situation Update: Monday, August 4, 2008

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Tropical Storm Edouard forms in the Gulf of Mexico

At 5:00 am EDT the center of Tropical Storm Edouard was located about 185 miles southeast of Lafayette Louisiana and about 295miles east-southeast of Galveston, Texas.  A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from the mouth of the Mississippi river westward to San Luis Pass, Texas.  A Hurricane Watch remains in effect from west of Intracoastal City, Louisiana to Port O'Connor Texas
Edouard is moving toward the west near 9 mph.  A turn to the west-northwest is expected today with a west-northwestward motion expected to continue on Tuesday.  By Tuesday morning the center of Edouard is expected to be very near the upper Texas coast or the coast of southwestern Louisiana
Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph with higher gusts.  Some increase in strength is expected during the next 24 hours and Edouard could be nearing hurricane strength before reaching the coastline.  Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 35 miles from the center.
A storm surge of 2 to 4 ft above normal tide levels can be expected in the warning area in areas of onshore winds.
Edouard is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches along portions of the Louisiana coastal counties into southeastern Texas. Isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches are possible over southeastern Texas.
Isolated tornadoes are possible over portions of southern Louisiana and the upper Texas coast later today. (NOAA, National Hurricane Center)

Significant National Weather

West:
With a ridge of high pressure over the Pacific Northwest the only significant weather will be scattered showers and thunderstorms in the Rockies and the Southwest deserts generally during the afternoon hours.  Highs will range from the 70s along the Northwest coast to the 90s from eastern Washington southeast to Colorado and New Mexico to 100s in the deserts of Arizona, Nevada and California.

Midwest:
Strong to severe thunderstorms are forecast from South Dakota east to the Great Lakes this afternoon and evening.  A relatively dry frontal system remains draped across the central Midwest and will produce little weather. The high temperatures will be the big weather threat.  High temperatures should approach 90 degrees in the northern Border States.  In the central Plains to the middle Mississippi Valley, highs will reach 95 to 105 degrees, with heat indices of 100 to 110 degrees.

South:
A stationary front across the southeast will produce precipitation especially along the Gulf Coast with a warm moist flow off the water.  High temperatures will reach well into the 90s across the southeast, in the upper 90s to lower 100s in the lower Mississippi Valley and from 100 to 110 degrees in the southern Plains and northern and central Texas.

Northeast:
A trough of low pressure aloft will slowly drift away from the northeast but look for scattered showers and thunderstorms lingering across northern New England and northeastern New York through Monday evening.  High temperatures will range from the middle 70s in New England to the 90s in Virginia. (National Weather Service, Media Sources)

Alaska Flooding

A Flood Warning is in effect through 12:00 pm AKDT on Aug 5. The Tanana River has crested at Nenana and will continue to crest downstream through Sunday. Extensive areas of water are covering the lowlands adjacent to the Tanana River upstream of Nenana which will result in a very slow fall in the river level. Flooding is at minor levels. Fairbanks North Star Borough Mayor declared local disaster on July 31. The Alaska Rail Road Corp main track not passable between Denali and Fairbanks. (FEMA Region X)

California - Telegraph Fire Update

The fire has burned 34,091 acres and is 95 percent contained. Zero acres have burned on Yosemite National Park.  Full containment expected on August 4, 2008.  Thirty seven minor injuries (all firefighters) have been reported; no fatalities to date.  California OES, Inland REOC and State SOC are activated at the duty officer level. Mariposa County has activated their EOC and an OES representative is on scene.  There are currently 75 crews, 2600 fire engines, 27 dozers, 44 water tenders, 9 helicopters, 5 air tankers, and 4,057 total personnel assigned to this fire.  The number of destroyed structures is 21 residences and 33 outbuildings. (Cal Fire)

More Cities Move Aggressively To Stop Heat Deaths

In recent years, deadly heat waves have killed dozens-to-hundreds-of-people-at-a-time in various U.S. cities, often catching local officials unprepared.  Climate scientists say more killer heat waves lie ahead with global warming, and city officials are taking note.

A number of cities - especially those hard-hit in the past, such as Chicago, Philadelphia and Phoenix - get aggressive when a heat wave emerges.  They open cooling centers, hand out water bottles, go door to door to check on people and even ask utilities not to shut off electricity to late-payers during a heat wave.

In recent days, much of the country has experienced dangerously high heat.  Denver, CO just shattered a 134-year-old record of temperatures topping 90 for 19 days in a row. An excessive heat warning is in place for Phoenix, AZ, which is expected to top 110, with lows falling only to around 90.  Nashville, TN was forecast to reach a near-record 98 on Sunday. High humidity made it feel like 100 degrees in much of South Carolina and 107 in Austin, TX.

"It's already started," said a senior scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, CO.  "As the average climate warms up, the heat extremes will become more extreme, and we'll have more intense, more frequent and longer-lasting heat waves as we progress through the 21st century."

So far this year, roughly 50 people have died from the heat, according to news reports.  Heat waves lack the dramatic destruction of earthquakes, floods, hurricanes and tornadoes, but at 8,015 deaths, heat has killed more people in the U.S. than all those other weather events combined in the 24-year period ending in 2003, according to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.  Many cities have learned that the hard way.

Most of Phoenix, AZ's now extensive efforts began after the summer of 2005, when temperatures hit at least 110 on 24 days; 80 people died.  A decade earlier, it was Chicago, IL that was suffering with more than 700 heat deaths.  During that heat wave, the morgue got so full that bodies were kept in refrigerated trucks.  Most of those who died were elderly, living alone and without air conditioning.  "It was a real awakening," said a former deputy commissioner of public health.  "There were a number of days where the body count kept increasing and there was absolutely nothing you could do because the heat had already taken its toll.  It was a helpless feeling."  Now, other cities are acting before they get to that point.

Seattle, WA has begun educating the public about the dangers of heat and directing people to seek air conditioning.  At large public events, Boston, MA has begun putting up "rain rooms," giant, portable, tent-like structures that spray a mist.  In the San Francisco Bay, CA area, the National Weather Service recently implemented a heat/health watch warning system.  An epidemiologist who studies heat wave deaths for the CDC, pointed to Philadelphia, PA as a pioneer at preventing heat deaths.

After a 1993 heat wave killed at least 118, Philadelphia became the first in the country to begin a heat/health watch warning system.  It's now a worldwide model for forecasting heat, with 18 other metro areas copying it.

During a three-year period that began when Philadelphia instituted its system, an estimated 117 lives were saved because residents knew there'd be a dangerous heat wave, according to an article published by the American Meteorological Society.

About 18-to-20 cities nationwide have plans similar to one in Chicago, which opens cooling centers, holds news conferences and sometimes opens a command center with public safety and health officials.

There have been successes.  Last summer, one man in St. Louis, MO became so concerned about his elderly neighbor that he broke in when the man didn't answer his door, said the director of St. Louis' public health department.  She said the elderly man was severely dehydrated and unconscious.  "Another 24 hours, and he would have died," she said.  He didn't. (Media Sources)

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

Nothing significant to report. (FEMA HQ)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic/Caribbean:
As discussed above, the National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently-formed Tropical Storm Edouard.  Shower activity associated with a low pressure area centered about 450 miles east-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands remains poorly organized.  Significant development of this system is not expected.  Elsewhere, tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.
Eastern Pacific:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.
Western Pacific:
Tropical cyclone activity does not threaten U.S. territories. (NOAA, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Fire Activity as of Sunday, August 3, 2008:
National Wildfire Preparedness Level: 4
Initial attack activity: Light (150 new fires)
New large fires: 1
Uncontained large fires: 38
Large fires contained: 1
States with Large fires: AZ, CA, CO, ID, MT, NC, OK, TX, UT, WA and WY (National Interagency Fire Center, National Incident Information Center)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)