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National Situation Update: Monday, March 31, 2008

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Significant National Weather

Midwest:
A low pressure system moving through the central Rockies tonight will emerge into the Plains Monday morning and move toward the Great Lakes, causing a variety of stormy weather over the Midwest and Great Plains. Severe thunderstorms with the possibility of tornadoes are forecast for eastern Kansas, Missouri, southern Iowa and much of Illinois by this evening. Rain will occur in eastern Kansas, western and central Missouri, eastern Iowa, northern Illinois, southern Wisconsin and northern Michigan. Heavy snow is expected in eastern South Dakota, southern Minnesota, and northern and central Wisconsin into the Upper Peninsula of Michigan.

Northeast
Mild, moist air moves into the northeastern U.S. bringing rain and snow. From New York southward much of the region will see mostly rain showers. Light freezing rain is possible across northeastern Pennsylvania and central and eastern New York this morning. Snow changing to rain showers is likely in New England, while Maine may see more snow than rain.

South
A large part of the southern U.S. will experience rain and thunderstorms. The heaviest rain and storms are expected from northeastern Texas northward through eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. Severe thunderstorms and isolated tornadoes are forecast over the eastern parts of Texas and Oklahoma, northwest Louisiana and most of Arkansas. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected in portions of the Carolinas, Georgia and Florida.

West
Showers are forecast for western Washington and northwest Oregon. Snow is forecast for much of the northern interior West, southern Montana and northern Wyoming. Mountain snow is anticipated southward into Utah and western Colorado with strong winds moving through the southern Great Basin. A Red Flag Warning is in effect this afternoon and evening for southeast New Mexico, the Permian Basin, and areas west of the Pecos River for winds of 20 mph or greater, relative humidity values less than 15 percent, and high fire danger.

Mississippi Valley Flooding Update

CURRENT SITUATION
Rivers across the Ohio and Middle Mississippi Valleys continue to recede, but current and pending weather may slow the recession rate. A strong low pressure system moving into the Midwest will bring an increased chance for thunderstorms through Monday night. Flooding may become severe in the mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valleys due to ground saturation and heavy precipitation forecasts in the midsection of the country. Rainfall is expected to top 3 inches in the mid-Mississippi Valley. Showers and thunderstorms overnight Saturday and Sunday produced very heavy rainfall throughout East Texas, northwest Louisiana, southeast Oklahoma and portions of southwest Arkansas. From six to ten inches of rain fell over portions of East Texas and extreme Northwest Louisiana. Additional heavy rains are possible late today across eastern Texas and the lower Mississippi valley.

STATE AND LOCAL RESPONSE
Arkansas
State EOC is at normal operations (8:00 a.m. - 7:00 p.m. CDT). One fatality and four injuries have been confirmed, and one man is reported missing. 46 counties are affected with 38 under a State Disaster Declaration. 13 Public Assistance and 12 Individual Assistance PDAs have been conducted. Several areas are experiencing water supply problems due to flooding/inoperable treatment systems; boil water orders are in effect.

• Major Disaster FEMA-1751-DR, declared March 26, 2008, was amended to include Individual Assistance for eleven counties. Ten counties were previously approved for Public Assistance. In addition, all jurisdictions in the State of Arkansas are eligible to apply for assistance under the Hazard Mitigation Grant Program.
• The White River at Des Arc, AR is at Major Flood Stage and continuing to recede. The river is forecast to reach moderate flood stage early Tuesday April 01, 2008.
• The White River at Clarendon, AR is at Major Flood Stage and forecast to remain at major flood stage through Thursday, April 3, 2008.

Illinois
The State EOC is at normal operations (8:00 a.m. - 5:00 p.m. CDT). Two fatalities have been confirmed. Local and State PDAs are ongoing. There has been no request for Federal Assistance.

• Ohio River at Grand Chain Dam, IL has fallen to Moderate Flood Stage and continues to recede
• The Ohio River at Cairo, IL is at Moderate Flood Stage and continues to recede.
• The Mississippi River at Thebes, IL has fallen below flood stage and is forecast to continue to fall through Friday, April 4, 2008.
• The Big Muddy River near Murphysboro, IL is at Moderate Flood Stage and falling, and is forecast to recede to flood stage by Tuesday, April 1, 2008.

Indiana
The State EOC is at normal operations (8:00 a.m. - 5:00 p.m. EDT). One fatality and eight injuries have been confirmed. Local and State PDAs are ongoing. There is no request for Joint PDAs or Federal assistance. Flood Warnings are in effect for much of the west and southwest portion of the state.

• White River at Petersburg, IN is at Moderate Flood Stage and is forecast to recede below Moderate Flood Stage Wednesday, April 2, 2008.
• The White River at Hazelton will fall below Moderate Flood Stage on Tuesday, April 1, 2008 and below flood stage on Tuesday, April 8, 2008.

Louisiana
The State EOC is at normal operations (8:00 a.m.-5:00 p.m. CDT). On March 27, 2008, the Governor of Louisiana issued a State of Emergency from March 24, 2008 to April 22, 2008. No problems have been identified so far, and there has been no request for State assistance from local parishes. Flood risk continues along the Mississippi throughout the week.

• The Mississippi River at Red River Landing is currently nearly 4 feet above flood stage and continues to rise. The river is forecast to continue to rise to over five feet above flood stage through Friday, April 4, 2008. At three feet above flood stage, all river islands from Red River Landing to Baton Rouge will be inundated. Recreational camps and river bottom farm land will be under water.
• The Mississippi River at Baton Rouge will rise above flood stage late Monday, March 31, 2008 and will continue to rise to nearly three feet above flood stage by Friday, April 4, 2008. The river is not forecast to rise above four feet above flood stage (39 feet.) At 39 feet, Louisiana State University campus and the surrounding area should be safe from major flooding. If the river rises above 40 feet the protection levee at the Louisiana State University campus will be topped with extensive flooding of the campus and surrounding area.
• The Atchafalaya River at Morgan City is approximately one and a half feet above flood stage and is forecast to continue to rise to approximately three and a half feet above flood stage by Friday, April 4 2008. Minor flooding is occurring with moderate flooding forecast.
• New Orleans District US Army Corps of Engineers and Jefferson Parish Levee Board representatives are inspecting the levee systems in Jefferson Parish. This is a precautionary measure to ensure there are no potential problems that need to be addressed prior to potential flooding. The potential impacted area is farmland.
• The Army Corp of Engineers is projecting no overtopping of levees of the Mississippi based on the forecast from the National Weather Service. The flooding that is projected is either between the levee and the Mississippi River or caused from backwaters such as bayous and streams that empty into the Mississippi River.

Mississippi
The Mississippi SEOC is not activated. Risk of flooding increases along the Mississippi River through the week.

• Flood warnings continue for the Mississippi River at Greenville, Vicksburg and Natchez.
• The Mississippi River near Greenville, MS is forecast to reach moderate flood stage midday, Monday, March 31, 2008 and crest at moderate flood stage (four feet above flood stage) on late Wednesday, April 2, 2008.

Missouri
The Missouri SEOC is not activated. Five fatalities are attributed to the flooding. 1,980 homes have been damaged, destroyed or affected. An estimated 50 businesses are damaged or destroyed in addition to 2 wastewater lift stations. Joint IA PDAs were completed March 28, 2008. PA PDAs begin this week.

• The Mississippi River at Cape Girardeau, MO has fallen below flood stage and is forecast to continue to fall through Friday, April 4, 2008.
• Mississippi River at New Madrid, MO has fallen below Moderate Flood Stage and is forecast to continue to fall through Friday, April 4, 2008.

Texas
The Texas State EOC is activated at Level I, 24/7. Showers and thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday produced from two to ten inches of rain over portions of east Texas, resulting in numerous road closures; homes and businesses were flooded. There is one confirmed fatality and four people are missing. The Texas Division of Emergency Management is responding to this situation along with numerous State, county, local and civilian agencies. Two shelters are open in Sabine County and San Augustine with a total population of 14. FEMA Region VI provided a Liaison Officer to the Texas EOC. There has been no request for Federal assistance.

• The Bland Lake Earthen Dam near San Augustine was compromised, releasing over seven feet of water across State Highway 87 in Sabine County.
• Flood warnings continue for the Ayish Bayou near San Augustine (San Augustine County) until Wednesday. Moderate flooding is occurring and major flooding is forecast. The river will fall below flood stage early afternoon on Tuesday, Apr 1, 2008.
• The Sabine River below Longview (Rusk County) was at 28.8 ft at 7:00 p.m. resulting in moderate flooding.
• A flood warning is also in effect for the Attoyac Bayou near Chireno (Nacogdoches County). The river is forecast to continue rising to between 3 and 4 feet above flood stage by early Tuesday evening, Apr 1, 2008. (FEMA Regions V, VI, and VII, NWS, NSS, NGB, NICC, ADEM, TX SOC, IL EOC, ARC, MEMA, NOAA)

FEDERAL RESPONSE
FEMA Region VI
Region VI RRCC is activated at Level III, 7:00 a.m. - 5:00 p.m. CDT (M- F).

• The USCG Marine Safety Unit in Baton Rouge, LA, will establish a Traffic Control Center today as a joint industry/USCG operation to coordinate barge/ship traffic on the Mississippi River in the Baton Rouge, LA area.
• FEMA Region VI liaison officers are deployed to Arkansas and Texas EOCs.
• FIRST Atlanta arrived in Little Rock, Arkansas JFO in support of FEMA-DR-1751-AR.
• Four PA PDA teams are performing PDAs in Oklahoma for eleven counties for flooding that occurred March 17, 2008 and ongoing.

FEMA Region VII
Region VII RRCC is activated at Level III, 6:00 a.m. - 6:00 p.m. CDT (M-F).

• PA PDAs will begin in Missouri today. (Denton MOC, FEMA HQ, Region VI and VII, USACE, USCG)

Colorado Salmonella Outbreak

The City of Alamosa, CO began treatment of the City's water distribution system for bacterial contamination today. The State Health Department determined that the entire Municipal Water System, both County and City, was contaminated. Of the 315 suspected cases, 85 were confirmed and 12 were hospitalized. There have been no reported deaths as a result of the outbreak. A Super-Chlorination flush began March 25, 2008 and will last 28 days.(NGB Sitrep #7)

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

No new activity to report. (FEMA HQ)

Tropical Weather Outlook

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Disaster Declaration Activity

FEMA-DR-1746-KY JFO is closing April 2, 2008.
FEMA-DR-1751-AR: at the request of FCO and State, FIRST Atlanta is conducting situational awareness operations in the vicinity of Batesville, AR. (FEMA HQ)