National Situation Update: Sunday, March 30, 2008

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Significant National Weather

Midwest:
A few showers and thunderstorms will extend into the Ohio Valley on Sunday; however, precipitation should be light. Showers are forecast across the northern Plains and upper Midwest with some light snow possible across northern Minnesota and northern Wisconsin. Thunderstorms will develop in the late afternoon and evening across portions of Kansas and Oklahoma with the possibility of some severe thunderstorms and tornadoes. Severe thunderstorms with the chance of tornadoes are also likely from central Texas into northern Illinois. Heavy rain could cause more flooding across portions of Arkansas and Missouri.

Northeast
A high pressure system that is firmly in place across the Northeast will bring sunny but cold conditions today for most of the Northeast. Rain showers will develop into the mid-Atlantic region during the evening. Temperatures will remain below seasonal averages across region until Monday.

South
A few light showers are forecast for the Southeast until Monday. Temperatures will range from the 70s and 80s from Mississippi through Florida to the 40s and 50s across north Georgia and into the Carolinas.
The Southern Plains will be in the 70s and 80s. Showers and thunderstorms can be expected along the frontal boundary with some severe thunderstorms possible across Oklahoma and Texas Sunday night.

West
A cold storm system in the Northwest will bring snow showers mixing with rain into the Seattle and Portland areas. Wintery conditions will bring a chance of snow showers mixing with rain in the Seattle and Portland areas. Heavy snow can be expected across parts of the northern Rockies with several inches up to a foot of snow forecast for the mountains of Idaho, Montana, Utah, Colorado and Wyoming. The Southwest will experience sunny but windy conditions. Temperatures will be in the 30s and 40s across the Pacific Northwest, northern Rockies and much of the Great Basin. In the California Valleys the temperatures will be in the 60s with 70s expected in the Southwest and 80s in the deserts.

Midwest Flooding Update

CURRENT SITUATION
Numerous flood warnings remain in effect along the Wabash, East Fork White and White rivers in Illinois and Indiana; the Ohio River in Indiana, Kentucky, Illinois and Missouri; and the Mississippi River for Missouri, Tennessee, Arkansas, Mississippi and Louisiana. Rivers across the Ohio and Middle Mississippi Valleys are receding.

A strong low pressure system will move into the Midwest bringing an increased chance for thunderstorms Sunday through Monday night. Flood potential remains high into early April for the Midwest.

A cold front will bring showers and thunderstorms to the south Sunday and Monday; precipitation is not expected to cause a rise in the Mississippi River, but may slow the current rate of recession.

STATE and LOCAL RESPONSE
Arkansas
State EOC is at normal operations from 8:00 a.m. – 7:00 p.m. CDT. One fatality and four injuries have been confirmed, and one man is reported missing. 46 counties are affected with 38 under a State Disaster Declaration. 13 Public Assistance and 12 Individual Assistance PDAs have been conducted. Several areas are experiencing water supply problems due to flooding/inoperable treatment systems; boil water orders are in effect.

Major Disaster FEMA-1751-DR, declared March 26, 2008, was amended to include Individual Assistance for Baxter, Benton, Independence, Jackson, Lawrence, Logan, Madison, Marion, Randolph, Stone and Woodruff Counties. Baxter, Boone, Carroll, Fulton, Izard, Johnson, Madison, Scott, Searcy and Yell Counties were previously approved for Public Assistance. In addition, all jurisdictions in the State of Arkansas are eligible to apply for assistance under the Hazard Mitigation Grant Program.

Major/Moderate Flooding Update: The White River at Des Arc, AR is at Major Flood Stage and continuing to recede. The river is forecast to reach moderate flood stage early Tuesday April 01, 2008. The White River at Clarendon, AR is at Major Flood Stage and forecast to remain at major flood stage through Thursday, April 3, 2008.

Indiana
The State EOC has returned to normal operations from 8:00 a.m. – 5:00 p.m. CDT. One fatality and eight injuries have been confirmed. Local and State PDAs are ongoing. There is no request for Joint PDAs or Federal assistance. Flood Warnings are in effect for much of the west and southwest portion of the state.

  • The White River at Petersburg, IN is at Moderate Flood Stage; forecast to recede below Moderate Flood Stage Tuesday, April 1, 2008.
  • The East Fork White River near Bedford, IN will remain at flood stage through Thursday, April 3, 2008.
  • The Patoka River at Princeton is gradually falling but will remain above Major Flood Stage through Tuesday, April 1, 2008.
  • The White River at Hazelton will fall below Moderate Flood Stage on Thursday, April 3, 2008.
  • The Wabash River in Mount Carmel will fall below Moderate Flood Stage late Saturday, April 5, 2008.

Illinois
The State EOC is at normal operations from 8:00 a.m. - 5:00 p.m. CDT. Two fatalities have been confirmed. Local and State PDAs are ongoing. There has been no request for Federal Assistance. Flood warnings are in effect for much of the west and southeastern portion of the state.

  • Ohio River at Grand Chain Dam, IL remains above Major Flood Stage; forecast to remain above Major Flood Stage until late today, March 30, 2008.
  • The Ohio River at Cairo, IL is at Moderate Flood Stage and continues to recede.
  • The Mississippi River at Cape Girardeau, MO and Thebes, IL are at flood stage and falling. Both are forecast to be below flood stage by early Monday, March 31, 2008.
  • The Big Muddy River near Murphysboro, IL is at Moderate Flood Stage and is forecast to recede to flood stage by late Monday, March 31, 2008.

Louisiana
State EOC is at normal operations 8:00 a.m.-5:00 p.m. CDT. The Governor of Louisiana issued a State of Emergency March 27, 2008. New Orleans District US Army Corps of Engineers and Jefferson Parish Levee Board representatives are inspecting the levee systems in Jefferson Parish as a precautionary measure to ensure there are no potential problems that need to be addressed prior to potential flooding. The Potato Ridge Levee is forecast to rise 2.5 feet above the crown; however, no problems have been identified so far, and there has been no request for State assistance. The risk of flooding increases along the Mississippi throughout the week.

  • The Mississippi River at Red River Landing is forecast to continue to rise to over five feet above flood stage through Thursday, April 3, 2008.
  • The Mississippi River at Baton Rouge will rise above flood stage late Monday, March 31, 2008 and will continue to rise to one foot above flood stage by Thursday, April 3, 2008. The river is not forecast to rise above four feet above flood stage (39 feet.)
  • The Atchafalaya River at Morgan City is approximately two feet above flood stage and is forecast to continue to rise to approximately three feet above flood stage by Thursday, April 3, 2008. Minor flooding is occurring with moderate flooding forecast.

Mississippi
Risk of flooding increases along the Mississippi through the week. Flood warnings continue for the Mississippi River at Greenville, Vicksburg and Natchez until further notice.

  • The Mississippi River near Greenville, MS is more than three feet above flood stage and is forecast to crest at moderate flood stage (four feet above flood stage) on Wednesday, April 2, 2008.
  • The Mississippi River near Vicksburg, MS is above Flood Stage and is forecast to continue rising to near three feet above flood stage by Thursday, April 3, 2008.
  • The Mississippi River near Natchez, MS is more than a foot above flood stage and is forecast to continue to rise to above moderate flood stage on Thursday, April 3, 2008. The river is forecast to rise to near 53 feet (2 feet above moderate flood stage) by Sunday, April 6, 2008. At 53 feet, some camps and houses are flooded around Fort Adams.

Missouri
The Missouri SEOC is not activated. Five fatalities have been attributed to the flooding. 1,980 homes have been damaged, destroyed or affected. An estimated 50 businesses are damaged or destroyed in addition to 2 wastewater lift stations. Joint IA PDAs were completed March 28, 2008. PA PDAs will begin the week of March 31, 2008.

  • The Mississippi River at Cape Girardeau, MO and Thebes, IL are at flood stage and falling. Both are forecast to be below flood stage by early Monday, March 31, 2008.
  • The Mississippi River at New Madrid, MO is at Moderate Flood Stage and forecast to fall to flood stage by early Monday morning, March 31, 2008.

Ohio
Nine counties were declared as States of Emergency. Two fatalities are confirmed. All rivers in Ohio remain below Moderate Flood Stage.(Region V, Region VII, Region VI, NWS, NSS, NGB,NICC, ADEM, TX SOC, IL EOC, ARC, MEMA, NOAA)

FEDERAL RESPONSE
FEMA Region V
The RRCC is at Level III, Watch Officer only 7:30 a.m. – 5:00 p.m. CDT through Sunday, March 30, 2008. FIRST Chicago was released and returned to Chicago March 29, 2008.

FEMA Region VI
The RRCC is at Level III, 7:00 a.m. – 5:00 p.m. CDT. Infrastructure Protection, Department of Energy, US Coast Guard (USCG) and ESF 3 representatives were released from the RRCC March 28, 2008, but will remain on-call March 29 – 30, 2008. The USCG Marine Safety Unit in Baton Rouge, LA, will establish a Traffic Control Center on March 31, 2008 to coordinate barge/ship traffic on the Mississippi River in the Baton Rouge, LA area. FEMA liaison officers deployed to Arkansas and Texas EOCs. FIRST Atlanta arrived in Little Rock, Arkansas JFO for FEMA-DR-1751-AR. Four PA PDA teams are performing PDAs in Oklahoma for eleven counties for flooding that occurred March 17, 2008 and ongoing.

FEMA Region VII
PA PDAs will begin the week of March 31, 2008. (Denton MOC, Region V, Region VI, Region VII, USACE, USCG, FEMA HQ)

Red Flag Update

Red Flag Warnings are in effect from noon MDT through 10:00 p.m. MDT Sunday over southwest and south-central New Mexico and far west Texas due to low humidity and strong gusty winds through the weekend. Similar conditions are forecast to develop Monday, March 31, 2008.(National Interagency Coordination Center, National Incident Information Center, National Interagency Fire Center)

Texas Wildfires

The Texas EOC is activated at Level I, 24 hours a day, seven days a week. There continue to be Fire Weather Watches active over much of the state. Cumulative fire loss information as of 2:00 p.m. CDT March 29, 2008: Total Acres Burned - 1,030,375; Total Homes Lost - 154 (+2); and Total Homes Damaged - 36 (no change) (TX SOC Sitrep #66)

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

No new activity to report. (FEMA HQ)

Tropical Weather Outlook

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Last Modified: Monday, 31-Mar-2008 08:40:29 EDT