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National Situation Update: Saturday, March 8, 2008

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Significant National Weather

Northeast:  A major winter storm is causing a wide variety of weather across the northeast, with heavy snow and strong winds forecast for Saturday, March 8, 2008.  Areas from northwest Pennsylvania and central New York to sections of northern New England may experience a wintry mix of freezing rain and sleet before changing to snow tonight. 

Heavy rain will push through the Hudson Valley and New England during the day; snowmelt and saturated ground combined with a predicted four to five inches of rain may cause flooding.

Winds in the Appalachian areas will be strong both ahead of and behind the storm, with gusts of 40 mph and higher.  Severe thunderstorms will be confined to the eastern Mid-Atlantic region today. 

Saturday's high temperatures will range from the 60s in southeast Virginia to the 20s in western and northern New York.  Strong winds with some snow from northern New England to the eastern Great Lakes are predicted for Sunday, March 9, 2008.

Midwest:  Much of the Midwest will experience another cold front today with snow forecast across the Ohio Valley.  Accumulations may reach up to one foot of snow in areas of Ohio. 

Numerous Blizzard Warnings remain in effect for southern and western Indiana and the Ohio Valley region until 4:00 p.m. EST today.  Winds in the eastern Ohio Valley could gust over 40 mph with areas of Ohio encountering blizzard conditions.  Snowfall is predicted to end by tonight. 
Flood Warnings continue for portions of western and southern Indiana, and parts of Illinois.  Flood crests in those areas will occur from this weekend until March 15, 2008. 

Much of the region is expecting temperatures of 10 to 30 degrees below average.  Highs will range from the teens and 20s in the Great Lakes to the low 60s in southwest Kansas today.  The Plains and the Midwest will be dry Sunday, March 9, 2008 with the exception of some Great Lakes snow showers; however, temperatures will be 5 to 15 degrees below average from the Mississippi Valley eastward.

South: A cold front will produce variations in severe weather across the Southeast as it presses eastward from the Carolinas and southern Florida into the Atlantic Ocean. 

Snow is forecast across the Tennessee Valley and the southern Appalachians, with small snow showers across northern and central Alabama and western Georgia.  Red Flag Warnings continue for the Florida Big Bend, eastern Panhandle and southeast Alabama areas until Saturday 7:00 p.m. EST due to long durations of low relative humidity.  A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 7:00 a.m. EST this morning for the Martin and Palm Beach Counties in Florida.  Winds are forecast 23 to 29 mph accompanied by rain.  Winds may gust to 40 mph with temperatures in the 30s in Atlanta and Birmingham, Alabama.

West:  A weak front will move southeastward through the Rockies over the weekend with lower elevation rain showers and some mountain snow.  This weather system is forecast to move across the Great Basin today and into southwestern New Mexico by midday Sunday. 

The combined effect of ample moisture and upslope winds along portions of the southeast mountains and into portions of the upper Arkansas River Valley could lead to significant snow accumulations Saturday night and Sunday. 

A Winter Storm Watch will go into effect late Saturday night into Sunday afternoon for the southern area of Colorado. 

The Southwest will remain dry with temperatures in the West to range from average to above average.  (NWS, Media Sources)

Tornado Touchdowns Impact North Florida

Multiple counties in Northern Florida were impacted by severe weather and tornado touchdowns Friday, March 7, 2008. The National Weather Service (NWS) Tallahassee Office confirmed two tornados made landfall in Leon County (EF-1) and Taylor County (EF-2). FL Emergency Management confirmed a tornado touchdown in Lake City, Columbia County (EF-2).

One direct fatality was reported in the early morning, when a tree fell into a mobile home and killed a woman. One indirect fatality was reported, and some injuries are reported in the Chaires/Capitola area. Varying damages resulting from from trees down, power outages, minor flooding, over turned mobile homes, and traffic signals being out were reported across the area. The NWS confirmed NOAA weather radio was temporarily off-line due to weather damage.

The State Emergency Response Team is currently activated at a Level 3 (Monitoring). FEMA Region IV State Liaison is on standby. There is no request for Federal Assistance. (FEMA Region IV)

Late Winter Storms Continue To Move Northeast

Heavy snow and near-blizzard conditions continue to plague the Midwest from Arkansas to the Great Lakes, and moving northeastward.

Friday, March 7, 2008 Arkansas experienced the second snowstorm in four days, adding more than a foot of snow and closing hundreds of schools. Media reported about 44,000 Arkansas homes or businesses were without power, and officials say it could be Monday before power is restored.

Ohio and northern Kentucky are expecting the continuation of a massive storm; an Ohio Highway Patrol spokesman said the agency responded to 610 crashes statewide on Friday, and First Energy has reported 15,000 customers without power; however, restoration is expected later today.

FEMA Regions I and II will activate today in anticipation of storms moving into the Northeast, bringing a mix of sleet, freezing rain, ice and possible snow accumulations. In New Jersey, heavy rainfall may cause flooding in parts of the state this weekend. The Delaware River at Trenton was expected to crest Sunday at about half a foot above flood stage. (FEMA Regions I, II, IV, and Media sources)

Mid-West Flooding Continues

Ohio
The Scioto River at Prospect, Ohio is at 12.56 feet and dropping. Flood stage is 9 feet. Moderate flooding is occurring and expected to go below flood stage by today. The Scioto River at Circleville, Ohio crested at 20.55 feet on March 6, 2008 and remains above flood stage. It is predicted to go below flood stage Sunday, March 9, 2008.

Illinois
The Rock River at Moline, Illinois peaked yesterday at a record 16.38 feet. Flood stage is 12 feet. Water limits access to homes, affects highway intersections, and is covering some roads. The Rock River at Moline and Joslin in Illinois are at major flood stage and are forecast to remain at this level through March 12, 2008; officials are monitoring the continuing floods.The Illinois River in Illinois is at moderate flood stage, and officials are monitoring.

Indiana
The Kankakee and East Fork White Rivers in Indiana are at Moderate Flood stage.  The river levels are falling but are not expected to be below Flood Stage until Sunday, March 9, 2008. (NWS, Region V)

National Drought Summary UPDATE

The Southeastern and Mid-Atlantic States: Over the past week, several precipitation events have helped improve some of the drought conditions. Several inches of rain were reported in the Mid-Atlantic region. In Alabama and Tennessee, extreme and exceptional drought conditions improved due to up to 4 inches of rain that fell. In Tennessee, there were also improvements to moderate and severe drought conditions.

The Plains: Dry conditions have continued across the northern Plains over the last several months. Several locations in South Dakota have recorded top 10 driest periods from November to February, with two locations having the driest on record. In North Dakota, extreme drought conditions were pushed farther to the west and a new area of moderate drought was introduced in southeast North Dakota and northeast South Dakota. The winter has been dry but cold for much of the northern Plains.

Dryness continues across central and west Texas. After an eight-month period of wet weather in 2007, the end of 2007 and start of 2008 has been very dry over much of the western half of Texas. Severe drought conditions expanded north and west and moderate conditions expanded to the west. The Big Bend region experienced abnormally dry conditions this week. Dry conditions in south central Oklahoma was improved slightly due to heavy rain and snow this week with places east of the dry area receiving more than 4 inches of rain, with 4 to 6 inches of snow reported on top of that.

The West:  It was dry for most of the West with precipitation occurring along the Oregon and Washington coasts. Some drought improvements have been made, generally in response to the snowpack conditions. In Utah, drought intensities improved for the entire state except for the northern drainage basins. Wyoming had improvements in the far northwest and the south central portions of the state with continued snowfall pushing seasonal values above normal. Improvements have also been noted in both Idaho and Montana. In general, if the above-normal snowpack continues, there will be opportunity for further improvements in the later portions of the snow season.

Hawaii: Several of the Hawaiian Islands experienced abnormally dry conditions this week. Most of Maui did not see much of the heavy rains that occurred during early February, which included 40 inches in 5 days on the east side of the Big Island. East Oahu and all of Molokai and Lanai was abnormally dry as well because of low rainfall totals.
Looking Ahead: Below-normal precipitation is expected over much of the southern tier of the country and up the east coast and Alaska. The Pacific Northwest, northern Plains, and upper Midwest are looking at above-normal precipitation. Temperatures over the eastern half of the United States look to be below normal with areas west of the Missouri River near normal. Southern California, southern Nevada and Arizona are forecasted to have above-normal temperatures. Author: Brian Fuchs, National Drought Mitigation Center http://www.drought.unl.edu/dm/monitor.html Synopsized by the FEMA NRCC Watch Staff

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

No activity to report. (FEMA HQ)

Tropical Weather Outlook

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Disaster Declaration Activity

Illinois: On March 7, 2008 the President signed Major Disaster Declaration FEMA-1747-DR for the State of Illinois for Severe Storms and Flooding that occurred January 7, 2008 and continuing. The declaration designates Individual Assistance for Iroquois and Livingston Counties and Hazard Mitigation statewide. The FCO is Lawrence Sommers of the National FCO Program.

Nevada: The JFO for FEMA-1738-DR closed yesterday, March 7, 2008. The facility was located in Carson, NV as a result of severe winter storms that occurred January 5-10, 2008. (FEMA HQ)