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National Situation Update: Monday, January 7, 2008

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Significant National Weather

West:
Scattered showers and mountain snows will continue to be widespread today, but no significant accumulations are expected.  The next Pacific storm will come ashore tonight bringing increased wind, rain and mountain snow into western Washington, western Oregon and northwest California.  Flash flood watches are posted for the coast and coastal mountains from Paso Robles south to San Diego. Winter storm and heavy snow warnings have been issued for elevations above 4000 feet with one to two feet of snow predicted for elevations above 6000 feet.

Midwest:
A frontal system stretching from Texas to the Great Lakes is expected to produce rain and showers from eastern Nebraska northeastward into the Great Lakes with the heaviest rain expected in northeast Iowa. Potential exists for severe thunderstorms from Texas to Illinois.  Temperatures in the Midwest from southern Missouri, Kentucky and the Ohio Valley are forecasted to reach into the 70s while North Dakota and northwest Minnesota will only be in the 20s. 

South:
Chances of precipitation will increase due to the unseasonably warm and humid air flowing northward from the Gulf of Mexico resulting in thunderstorms tonight, some severe, over eastern Texas, eastern Oklahoma, Arkansas and parts of Louisiana.  Highs are forecast to range from the 50s in the Oklahoma Panhandle and western half of the Texas Panhandle to the 80s in south Texas and western portions of the Florida Peninsula.

Northeast:
Light showers will be limited to the mountains of West Virginia, parts of western and northern Pennsylvania, and scattered showers from New York State into New England.  Temperatures will be well above average with highs ranging from the 40s in northern New England and northern New York to the 70s in much of eastern Virginia. 
 (NWS, Media Sources)

West Coast Storms Response

Region IX:
RRCC Status:  Stood down at 7:00 p.m., January 6, 2008. 

Current Situation:
Nevada Governor Jim Gibbons has signed an Emergency Declaration for Lyon County in response to the broken levee in Fernley, NV.  ERT-A/FCO at NV State EOC coordinating with NVDEM to discuss PDAs and additional requirements.  Joint PDAs are being conducted for both Lyon County, NV and Fernley, NV with NV National Guard providing air support for flyover assessments; initial estimates include major and minor damage totaling approximately 300 homes however, no homes reported destroyed.  Approximately 30-50 homes in Fernley, NV, are currently without power.  The Truckee Carson Irrigation District temporarily repaired the Fernley, NV, levee breach in consultation with the Bureau of Reclamation.  Further review will determine what will be required for permanent repairs.

DOD activated with National Logistics Staging Area (NLSA) at NAS Fallon, NV.  Two Mobile Disaster Response Centers en route to NLSA.  Combined power outages for CA, NV and OR are approximately 362,921.  Three potable water distribution centers are being arranged by Cal Fire due to widespread power outages in Yolo County, CA.  PG&E is in process of establishing power to both major DWR reclamation pump stations in Sutter County, CA.

Nevada Department of Emergency Management (NV DEM):
NV DEM EOC operational from 8:00 a.m. - 5:00 p.m. PST daily.

California Office of Emergency Services (CA OES):
CA OES is deactivated and FEMA Liaison is demobilized.  No impact to public or improved property as a result of the levee breach at Wheeler Island, CA. A natural levee breach in the Carmel Lagoon, Monterey County has led to partial flooding of 20 homes.  This is a recurring problem with in-channel sand bar; local resources handling issue.

FEMA Region X:
RRCC not activated. Duty Officer maintaining liaison with the WA Emergency Ops Center.  Oregon Emergency Operations Center (OR EOC) not activated at this time.  Washington EOC (WSEOC) is open and operating at an Enhanced Phase II level.  No requests for Federal assistance are anticipated at this time.

American Red Cross (ARC):
Most shelters in CA have been placed on standby with ten warming stations open.  One shelter is open in Fernley, NV with 20 occupants.

Department of Transportation (DOT):
Nothing significant to report.

USCG HQ/USCG District 11 (D11):
Deactivated; all MRE shipments have arrived NLSA.

National Infrastructure Coordinating Center (NICC):
As of 1:30 p.m., EST, January 6, 2008, combined power outages by the Department of Energy (DOE) in CA, WA, UT and OR number at 362,921; 351,921 in California; 1,000 in Utah; 10,000 Pacific Power customers in OR,WA and CA.  All major highways are open.

Logistics:
All requested MREs and nine pallets of water have arrived and been released to the State of NV.  Resources available from State of NV; 36,000 liters of water; 22,000 MREs; 500 blankets; 500 cots.

New Solar Cycle

A new 11-year cycle of heightened solar activity, bringing with it increased risks for power grids, critical military, civilian and airline communications, GPS signals and even cell phones and ATM transactions, showed signs it was on its way when the cycle's first sunspot appeared in the sun's Northern Hemisphere on 3 January 2008.
A sunspot is an area of highly organized magnetic activity on the surface of the sun. The new 11-year cycle, called Solar Cycle 24, is expected to build gradually, with the number of sunspots and solar storms reaching a maximum by 2011 or 2012, though devastating storms can occur at any time.

During a solar storm, highly charged material ejected from the sun may head toward Earth, where it can bring down power grids, disrupt critical communications, and threaten astronauts with harmful radiation. Storms can also knock out commercial communications satellites and swamp Global Positioning System signals. Routine activities such as talking on a cell phone or getting money from an ATM machine could suddenly halt over a large part of the globe.

"Our growing dependence on highly sophisticated, space-based technologies means we are far more vulnerable to space weather today than in the past," said Vice Admiral Conrad C. Lautenbacher, Jr., under secretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator. "NOAA's space weather monitoring and forecasts are critical for the nation's ability to function smoothly during solar disturbances."

The new sunspot, identified as #10981, is the latest visible spot to appear since NOAA began numbering them on January 5, 1972. Its high-latitude location at 27 degrees north and its negative polarity leading to the right in the Northern Hemisphere are clear-cut signs of a new solar cycle, according to NOAA experts. The first active regions and sunspots of a new solar cycle can emerge at high latitudes while those from the previous cycle continue to form closer to the equator.

Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) is the nation's first alert for solar activity and its affects on Earth. The center's space weather forecasters issue outlooks for the next 11-year solar "season" and warn of individual storms occurring on the sun that could impact Earth. SWPC is one of NOAA's nine National Centers for Environmental Prediction and is also the warning agency of the International Space Environment Service (ISES), a consortium of 11 member nations. (Excerpt from www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2008/20080104_sunspot.html)

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

No new activity to report.  (FEMA HQ)

Tropical Weather Outlook

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Earthquake Activity

An earthquake occurred in the Pacific off Canada's Queen Charlotte Islands, located 275 miles south of Metlakatla, AK, with a series of aftershocks ranging from 3.0 to 5.0 magnitudes.  No tsunami was generated. (USGS/NEIC, West Coast & Alaska Tsunami Warning Center)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)