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National Situation Update: Friday, January 4, 2008

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Significant National Weather

West:
A series of Pacific storms will produce heavy rainfall, very heavy snowfall in the mountains, strong gusty winds, dangerous coastal surf, and possible coastal flooding into early next week.  The heaviest precipitation is expected today through Saturday morning. Total precipitation up to 6 to 12 inches (rain or melted snow) is possible through the weekend.  Heavy rain could result in flash flooding and, particularly in the burn areas of southern California, mud and debris flows. At lower elevations in California, 2 to 3 inches of rainfall is possible. With a few exceptions, river flooding is not a major concern, as soil conditions have been dry and reservoirs have been at low levels.  Minor flooding is forecast along the Eel River at Fernbridge and along the Sacramento River at Tehema.  As of Thursday afternoon, snow levels ranged from 4000 feet in the north to 8000 feet in the south.  Snow levels will lower through the weekend to 1500 feet (north and central) and 3500 feet (south).  Snow accumulations of 2 to 5 feet are expected at the pass levels through Sunday, with several feet of additional snow possible at higher elevations. Wind gusts exceeding 100 mph are possible today in the Sierra Nevada, with blizzard conditions in the mountains near the California-Oregon border and in the northern and central Sierra Nevada.   The coast from southern Oregon through southern California will experience dangerous high surf and possible coastal flooding conditions, with wave action peaking in northern California tonight through Saturday morning.

Northeast:
A frontal system moving along the Canadian border will produce light rain/drizzle and even freezing rain along the border in Upstate New York and northern New England.  The high pressure centered in the Southeast will produce Southwest wind flow with temperatures increasing into the 30s and lower 40s across the Mid-Atlantic with 20s and the teens in northern New England.  Increasing temperatures through the weekend will result in snow melt and ice jams which may produce localized flooding.

Midwest: 
High pressure moving east of the area will result in increasing gusty (20 to 30 mph) south-to-southwesterly flow and rapidly increasing temperatures in the Plains and Midwest.  Temperatures will be 10 to 25 degrees above average across most of the Plains and Midwest this weekend. Warmer air will result in snow melt and ice breakup, ice movement and possible jamming on area streams and rivers.  Resulting in localized flooding this weekend in the Midwest and western Great Lakes.

South: 
High pressure over the region will produce generally clear skies and very cold dry air.  Low temperatures will range from the teens from eastern Tennessee and North Carolina to central Georgia and 20s into northern Florida.   A warming trend is expected over the weekend as the high pressure moves east and south-to-southwesterly wind flow returns (NWS, Media Sources)

Preparations for West Coast Storms

California, Oregon, Washington and FEMA Regions IX and X are making preparations to respond to the West Coast storms discussed above.
Region IX:
California:

• Office of Emergency Services (OES) will be activating the State Operations Center (SOC) and Southern Regional Operations Center (SROC) at 0900 PST today. OES will convene daily conference call with OES Duty Officers, The National Weather Service and River Forecast Office for situational awareness and planning purposes.
• OES will convene a conference call with appropriate State agencies and the American Red Cross (ARC) to conduct situation briefings to coordinate efforts.
• OES Regions continue to monitor the weather situation closely and are coordinating with the Operational Areas to determine any potential needs or requests for State assistance. State agencies are monitoring the situation and are prepared to respond as necessary. In most cases, agencies are not pre-positioning due to the fact that the event will affect all of the State, and not just a portion.

Federal/Military:

• FEMA Region IX will activate their RRCC to Level III at 0800 today.
• Pasadena Joint Field Office (JFO) Planning section commenced 24 hour operations through Sunday (01/06/08).
  • Sending liaison to CA Southern Region Operations Center at 0900 PST today.
  • Sending State liaison to CA SOC.
  • Alerted all ESFs and critical Federal agencies for potential activations.
  • Coordinated with Headquarters Logistics.
• National Guard Liaison Officer to report to SROC at 0900 PST today.
• Five Mobile Disaster Recovery Center vehicles are available to respond.

Region X:

• Oregon:  State Emergency Operations Center is monitoring situation.
• Washington:  State Emergency Operations Center is monitoring situation.

Federal/Military:

• RRCC not activated - Monitoring situation. (Region IX, Region X, Pasadena JFO)

Florida Hard Freeze Wednesday Night

The minor effects of the recent cold snap will be gone by this weekend, when warmer temperatures are forecast to prevail. (NWS)

Possible Midwest Flooding

A significant warm up this weekend and early next week will cause rapid snowmelt. This is expected to combine with periods of rain into early next week leading to the possibility of flooding. 

The following waterways are at Near Flood Stage:

Fox River at New Munster, WI
Turtle Creek at New Clinton, WI
Wabash River at Vincennes & Mount Carmel, IN
Wabash River at Red Skelton Bridge, IN
Wabash River at Montezuma and Terre Haute, IN
Wabash River at Red Skelton Bridge, IN
Wabash River at Lafayette, IN
Tippecanoe River at Oswego, IN
Tippecanoe River at Ora, IN
Kankakee River at Davis Route 30 Bridge, IN (NWS)

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

No new activity to report.  (FEMA HQ)

Tropical Weather Outlook

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Earthquake Activity

There was no significant activity in the United States or its territories during the last 24 hours.

On Friday, January 4, 2008 at 2:29 am EST an earthquake measuring 5.9 struck about 146 miles South southeast of Padang, Sumatra, Indonesia.  There were no reports of damage or injuries and there was no tsunami generated. (USGS/NEIC, West Coast & Alaska Tsunami Warning Center)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

Public Assistance PDAs for 37 counties in Kansas due to severe winter storms occurring December 6, 2007 are ongoing.

Public Assistance PDAs for eight counties in Nebraska due to severe winter storms occurring December 6, 2007 are ongoing.

Public Assistance PDA in Suffolk County in New York due to severe winter storms occurring December 15, 2007 was completed. (FEMA HQ)

Disaster Declaration Activity

Oklahoma: Amendment # 1:  FEMA-3280-EM-OK. Incident period for this disaster is closed effective January 3, 2008.

Oklahoma:  Amendment # 2:  FEMA-1735-DR-OK. Incident period for this disaster is closed effective January 3, 2008.

Federated States of Micronesia: FEMA-3276-EM-FSM JFO closed as of January 3, 2008.  (FEMA HQ)