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National Situation Update: Sunday, April 20, 2008

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

National Weather Forecast

Northeast
The low-pressure system near the Great Lakes, moving eastward, will move through the Mid-Atlantic States April 20 - 21, 2008, gradually exiting off the Southeast Coast.
The low-pressure system will funnel Atlantic moisture into the Mid-Atlantic region.  The heaviest rain, occasionally enhanced with thunderstorms, will occur from Pennsylvania, through the Potomac River Valley, to Tidewater, Virginia.  Rain totals are forecast to locally top four-to-six-inches.

West
The Northwest will be cold April 19 - 20, 2008, as wintry weather conditions accompany the passage of a cold front and a deep upper-level trough of low pressure.
By April 20, 2008, temperatures will range from teens to upper 30s across Montana, 20 to 30 degrees below average.
Snow will move across the Northwest from the Cascades to the Tetons and Bitterroots, to Montana.  Some accumulations will top one foot.

Midwest
A cold front from the West will arrive in the high Plains late April 20, 2008.
North Dakota will turn wintry the night of April 20, 2008, and early on April 21, 2008, as the cold front continues to move eastward, with some snow showers and gusty winds possible.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will increase from the Plains into the Mississippi Valley April 21, 2008, with some of the thunderstorms turning severe.

South
A cold front will approach, extending from Kentucky to Texas by April 24, 2008.
The warm air ahead of the cold front will produce clusters of thunderstorms across the Tennessee Valley and south-central states.
Another cold front will move eastward and southward across the South late April 24, 2008 through April 26, 2008, sparking additional thunderstorms. (NWS, Various Media Sources)

Mississippi Valley Flooding:

CURRENT SITUATION
The last of the showers from the Ohio Valley storm will linger in Ohio and eastern Kentucky April 20, 2008 before completely exiting into the Mid-Atlantic.  Meanwhile, a potent cold front from the West will arrive in the high Plains late April 20, 2008.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms will increase from the eastern Plains into the Mississippi Valley April 21, 2008, and some of the thunderstorms could turn severe in Minnesota, Iowa, Nebraska, Kansas and Missouri.  The gradually weakening front will continue to move eastward April 22 - 23, 2008, as scattered showers and thunderstorms move through the Mississippi Valley to the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley.  The next 36 hours will bring less than a tenth of an inch of rain to the Upper Mississippi Valley and Ohio Valley regions.

Flood Warnings continue for the Mississippi River Valley in Illinois, Missouri, Mississippi, Louisiana and Kentucky.  Moderate Flood Levels will continue for the next 48 hours.

FEDERAL RESPONSE
FEMA Region IV
Mississippi requested 1 PA and 2 IA Joint PDA teams due to damages from the severe weather on April 4 - 5, 2008.  IA PDAs in 4 counties scheduled to begin April 21, 2008.
Kentucky Joint PA PDAs in 15 counties are scheduled to begin on April 21, 2008 in response to flooding from March 18, 2008 and continuing.
No outstanding issues and no unmet needs.
FEMA Region V
PA PDAs began in Indiana on April 16, 2008.
No outstanding issues and no unmet needs.
FEMA Region VI
Five Disaster Recovery Centers opened in Arkansas.
ERT-A has been identified to support Louisiana (Oklahoma, and Texas), if required.
S1 to visit Louisiana on April 21 - 22, 2008.  Talking points and background information provided.
Arkansas PA PDAs requested for 56 counties, up from 45.  PA PDAs completed: 52 counties, up from 43.  IA PDAs 44 of 48 complete.
Oklahoma PA PDAs ongoing; currently there are 21 scheduled for April 17 - 25, 2008.
No outstanding issues and no unmet needs
Other Government Agencies
US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE)
193 personnel currently engaged in floodfighting activities. (USACE)
Levee seepages and boil activities are increasing in MS, AR, LA.  Technical assistance, levee patrols and inspections are ongoing in all affected States. (USACE) 
USACE continues to support FEMA Region VI in Denton, TX with 1 Team Leader and 1 USACE LNO for floodfighting activities. (USACE)
 (Denton MOC, Region V, Region VI, Region VII, USACE, USCG, FEMA HQ)

STATE and LOCAL RESPONSE
Arkansas
6 fatalities.
Counties:  58 counties with declared States of Emergency.
Homes destroyed/damaged: 206 homes destroyed and 414 major, 1,317 minor damage.  (Region VI, AR JFO)
5Disaster Recovery Centers (DRC) open.
USACE will continue to monitor the Prairie County levee. (Region VI)

Major/Moderate Flooding:
White River:
Des Arc crested at Major Flood Stage, is receding and will drop below Major Flood Stage April 23, 2008. 
State Highway 38 flooded and may be impassable. (NWS Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service).
Clarendon is at 33.74 feet, Major Flood Stage, and rising.  The river is forecast to crest near 34 feet by April 20, 2008, but remain at Major Flood Stage throughout the forecast period.
Roads nears Clarendon remain flooded, and downstream conditions are predicted to worsen.  (NWS Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service).

Arkansas City is at 44.96 feet, Major Flood Stage, with no significant change throughout the forecast period.
At 44 feet, all land inside levee protection is inundated.  (NWS Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service).

Rock River
Moline is at 13.73 feet, Moderate Flood Stage, gradually falling and is forecast to recede to Flood Stage April 22, 2008.  (NWS Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service, USACE, Region V)

Mississippi River:
Baton Rougeis at 42.86 feet, Major Flood Stage, forecast to steadily rise, reach 43 feet by April 22, 2008then remain steady throughout the forecast period.The base-line height of the levee is 48 feet, according to USACE.  The sand boil reported as "Big Mamou" is showing no change in activity as only clear water is flowing from the side of the bank wall.  No flooding issues at this time effecting the citizens or property.  (GOHSEP Sit Rep)
Red River Landing is at 60.24 feet, Moderate Flood Stage, rising, and is forecast to reach 60.5 feet by April 22, 2008and remain steady for the remainder of the forecast period.
At 59.0 feet, Angola Landing will be under water, closing the ferry there.  (NWS Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service, GOHSEP Sit Rep)

Major/Moderate Flooding:

Mississippi River: The Mississippi River crests have been raised from Arkansas City to Natchez.
Greenville is at 57.19 feet, Major Flood Stage and gradually receding throughout the forecast period.
At 57.0 feet, Harbor Front road is under water.
Natchez is at 56.78 feet, Moderate Flood Stage,and is forecast to reach 57.0 feet, Major Flood Stage, by April 21, 2008.
Impact at 57 feet includes flooding of Bourke Road and homes south of Natchez, in the township of Ft Adams.  (Region IV RRCC, Region V RRCC, Region VI RRCC, Arkansas Department of Emergency Management (ADEM) Emergency Operations Center, Louisiana Governor's Office of State Homeland Security and Emergency Preparedness (GOSHEP), Oklahoma Department of Emergency Management, Texas Division of Emergency Management State Operations Center, National Weather Service, National Guard Bureau, USACE.)

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

Nothing significant to report. (FEMA HQ)

Tropical Weather Outlook

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)