• Emergency Managers and Personnel
• Situation Reports
• National Incident Management System
• Grants & Assistance Programs
• Training
• Contacts
• Planning
• Best Practices

National Situation Update: Friday, April 18, 2008

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Significant National Weather

West:
Strong, gusty winds and very low humidity will cause blowing dust and fuel an extremely high fire danger across the Southwest.

Midwest:
Rain and thunderstorms in the Mississippi Valley will move eastward through the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, with the heaviest rain (up to two inches) falling across parts of Iowa, Illinois, Minnesota and Wisconsin.

South:
A cold front, along with thunderstorms, will move from the south-central states to the Southeast Coast April 18 - 20, 2008.
Severe storms will be limited to Louisiana and Mississippi today.  Most of the thunderstorms will stay below severe limits in the Southeast on April 19, 2008. (NWS, Various Media Sources)

Mississippi Valley Flooding

Current Situation:
A series of low pressure systems are tracking northeast along a cold front.  The rain and thunderstorms in the Mississippi Valley will shift eastward through the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley with the heaviest rain (up to two inches) falling across parts of Iowa, northern Illinois, southeast Minnesota and Wisconsin.  Severe storms will be limited to Louisiana and southern Mississippi today, with an additional one-half-to-one-and-a-half-inch of rain is possible.

Moderate-to-Major river flooding continues in Wisconsin, Illinois, Iowa, Missouri, Arkansas, Mississippi and Louisiana.  Moderate Flood Levels will continue for the next 48 hours.  Major flooding is affecting locations on the Rock River in Wisconsin; on the lower White River in Arkansas, from Georgetown to Clarendon; and on the lower Mississippi River at locations between Arkansas City, AR, and Baton Rouge, LA.

Flood Watches are in effect in Nebraska, Missouri, Iowa and Illinois.  Flood Warnings continue for the Mississippi River in Illinois, Missouri, Mississippi, Louisiana and Kentucky.

FEDERAL RESPONSE
FEMA Region IV
Mississippi requested 1 PA and 2 IA Joint PDA teams due to damages from the severe weather on April 4-5, 2008.
Tennessee Joint FEMA-State IA PDA's for Lawrence, Giles and Warren counties in Tennessee began on Wednesday April 16.
No outstanding issues/unmet needs.
FEMA Region V
PA PDAs began in Indiana on Wednesday April 16.
No outstanding issues/unmet needs.
FEMA Region VI
Mission Assignment issued to the USACE to provide pumps to address flooding in Jacksonport (Jackson County), Arkansas.  Pumping operations were discontinued the evening of April 15, 2008; pumps were pulled out on April 16, 2008.
Five Disaster Recovery Centers (DRCs) opened in Arkansas.
ERT-A has been identified to support Louisiana (Oklahoma, and Texas) if required.
RRCC activated at Level III - Monitoring Situation.
S1 to visit Louisiana on April 21-22, 2008, and   Talking points and background information provided.
Arkansas PA PDAs requested for 56 counties, up from 45.  PA PDAs completed: 49 counties, up from 43.
Oklahoma PA PDAs ongoing
FEMA Region VII
No requests for federal assistance
No outstanding issues and no unmet needs.
Other Government Agencies
US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE)
193 USACE personnel from 3 Corps' Divisions (MVD, LRD, SWD) and 9 Districts represents the highest number to date currently engaged in USACE floodfighting activities in support of the Midwest Flooding event that began in March, 2008, and continuing.  Levee seepages and boil activities are increasing in MS, AR, LA.  Technical assistance support, levee patrols and inspections are ongoing response operations in all affected States.  USACE continues to support FEMA Region VI in Denton, TX with 1 ESF #3 Team Leader and 1 USACE LNO for Corps' floodfighting activities. Districts continue to be actively engaged with local media interests.  (Denton MOC, Region V, Region VI, Region VII, USACE, USCG, FEMA HQ)

STATE and LOCAL RESPONSE:
Arkansas
6 fatalities
Arkansas DEM - Normal Operations  (Region VI SPOT Report, 14APR08, 12:47 p.m. EDT).
Counties:  58 counties with declared States of Emergency
Homes destroyed/damaged: 206 homes destroyed and 414 major, 1,317 minor damage (Region VI, AR JFO)
5 Disaster Recovery Centers (DRC) open
USACE will continue to monitor the Prairie County levee. (Region VI)
Major/Moderate Flooding:

White River
Georgetown is at Major Flood Stage and receding. River is expected to fall below Major Flood Stage the evening of April 19, 2008.  Flooding covers State Highway 36 and homes between West Point and Georgetown.  Georgetown cut off from land access since about March 21, 2008. (NWS Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service).
Des Arc crested at 33.68 feet, Major Flood Stage,and receding and will drop below Major Flood Stage April 22, 2008.  State Highway 38 flooded and may be impassable.  High winds will compound problems.(NWS Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service).
Clarendon is at 33.41 feet, Major Flood Stage, and rising.  River is forecast to crest near 34 feet by April 20, 2008 but remain at Major Flood Stage throughout the forecast period.  Roads nears Clarendon remain flooded, and downstream conditions predicted to worsen.  At 33 feet, most all land within the levees is inundated and large portions of the Cache and White River National Wildlife Refuges are flooded. (NWS Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service).
Mississippi River
Arkansas City is at 45.21 feet, Major Flood Stage, with no significant change throughout the forecast period.  At 44 feet, all land inside levee protection is inundated. (NWS Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service).

Rock River
Moline is at 13.99 feet, Moderate Flood Stage, and falling.  River is forecast to recede to 12.9 feet, Flood Stage, April 21, 2008.  (NWS Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service, USACE, Region V)

Mississippi River
Baton Rougeisat 42.17 feet, Major Flood Stage, and forecast to rise throughout the forecast period.The base-line height of the levee is 48 feet, according to USACE.  (GOHSEP Sit Rep)
Red River Landing at 59.80 feet, Moderate Flood Stage, and rising. River is forecast to crest at 60.5 feet by April 22, 2008.  At 59.0 feet, the east bank levee will be topped and the prison farm land between the two levees will be inundated.  Angola Landing will be under water closing the ferry there.  All river islands from Red River Landing to Baton Rouge will remain inundated, with recreational camps and river bottom farm land under water. There are no other flooding issues at this time effecting the citizens or property.(NWS Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service, GOHSEP Sit Rep)
Bonnet Carre Spillway remains open in an effort to divert water from a rapidly rising Mississippi River.  According to USACE, 90 bays are opened, allowing the water to flow into Lake Pontchartrain from the Mississippi River. Lake levels are not affected and will not adversely affect the hurricane protection levees along the lake front.  No expected impact on residents or businesses. (GOHSEP Sit Rep)
Per USACE, the threat assessment of the main line levees on the Mississippi River from Northern Louisiana to the Gulf of Mexico, and the main line levees in the Atchafalaya River, no overtopping is expected based on the current river crest forecast by the NWS at this time.  USACE continues to monitor levees 7 days a week. (USACE Level 2 Activation)

Mississippi River
Mississippi River crests have been raised from Arkansas City to Natchez.
Greenville is at 57.27 feet, Major Flood Stage, forecast to rise slightly and level off at 57.5 feet throughout the forecast period.  At 57 feet, Harbor Front road is under water.
Vicksburg at 50.61 feet, Major Flood Stage, and will rise slightly to near 51.0 feet by April 19, 2008, and hold steady throughout the forecast period. At 51 feet, the water level of the Mississippi River will still be at least 10-to-15-feet below the levee crown.  USACE is confident in the integrity of the levee. (NWS Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service, USACE)
Natchez at 56.46 feet, Moderate Flood Stage,and is forecast to reach 57.0 feet, Major Flood Stage, by April 20, 2008.  Impact at 57 feet includes flooding of Bourke Road and homes south of Natchez, in the township of Ft Adams.

Rock River:
Newvilleis at 11.65 feet, Major Flood Stage, and holding through April 20, 2008.  River will drop incrementally throughout the forecast period reaching Flood Stage by April 24, 2008.  Wisconsin Emergency Management reports the situation in Rock County has stabilized.  Wisconsin Emergency Management also reported that this is an area that has been subject to massive buy-outs over the past ten years.  Some sandbagging has been conducted, but there have been no evacuations or rescues in the area. (Region V)

Alaska Avalanche/Power Outage

Alaska Electric Light & Power reported an avalanche (considered to be a 50-to-100-year-type of event) has taken more than a mile of electrical power line out of service in Thane, AK, a southern community of Juneau, AK.  The avalanche occurred approximately three miles from the Alaska Electric Light & Power Company Snettisham generation facility and has damaged five line towers connecting area service lines to the hydroelectric facility.  Power is being generated by the Lemon Creek and Auke Bay diesel generating facilities.  The city has more 100% backup capacity to cover a power disruption from their primary power source.  Authorities assess it may take two weeks or more before workers can safely begin repairing the line.  Juneau officials anticipate repairs may take from three-to-six-months, in total, before hydropower can be restored.  However, the backup equipment has never had such a long period of demand to meet.

The main issue facing this community is the announced rate increases to cover the cost of repairing the lines, and the impacts upon families, businesses and the cruise industry, which starts in a few weeks.

The City of Juneau, AK has not made a request for assistance to the state, as they do not see this as a disaster.  There are no life safety issues, and FEMA Region X Watch is monitoring the situation and will issue updates as the conditions warrant.  (FEMA Region X, NICC)

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

Nothing significant to report.  (FEMA HQ)

A New Forecast of California Earthquakes

The 2007 Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP 2007), a multi-disciplinary collaboration of scientists and engineers, has released the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF)-the first comprehensive framework for comparing earthquake likelihoods throughout all of California. It provides important new information for improving seismic safety engineering, revising building codes, setting insurance rates, and helping communities prepare for inevitable future earthquakes.

UCERF Earthquake Probabilities
According to the new forecast, California has a 99.7% chance of having a magnitude 6.7 or larger earthquake during the next 30 years (see graphic). The likelihood of an even more powerful quake of magnitude 7.5 or greater in the next 30 years is 46%. Such a quake is more likely to occur in the southern half of the state (37% chance in 30 years) than in the northern half (15% chance in 30 years).
The probability of a magnitude 6.7 or larger earthquake over the next 30 years striking the greater Los Angeles area is 67%, and in the San Francisco Bay Area it is 63%, similar to previous WGCEP estimates. For the entire California region, the fault with the highest probability of generating at least one magnitude 6.7 quake or larger is the southern San Andreas (59% in the next 30 years). For northern California, the most likely source of such earthquakes is the Hayward-Rodgers Creek Fault (31% in the next 30 years).
The UCERF model includes the concept that earthquake likelihoods change with time. A fault that has ruptured in a recent large earthquake is less likely to produce another quake in the near future, because tectonic stress has not had time to build back up. Likewise, a fault that last ruptured a long time ago is more likely to produce an earthquake, because the stress on the fault has had time to re-accumulate. The faults with elevated probabilities for an earthquake include the southern San Andreas and Hayward-Rodgers Creek Faults, although major quakes on these faults may still be decades away.

Earthquake Forecasting, Hazard, and Risk
Accurate forecasts of the likelihood of earthquakes can help people prepare for these inevitable events. Because scientists cannot yet make precise predictions of the date, time, and place of future quakes, forecasts must be in the form of the probabilities of quakes of certain sizes occurring during specified periods of time. The probability of a magnitude 7.5 or greater earthquake striking somewhere in California is about 2% per year.
When an earthquake occurs, two things happen. The first is a fault rupture-a crack in the Earth's crust-gives way and slips under tectonic stress. The second is the radiation of seismic waves caused by this sudden fault motion, which spread out like ripples from a pebble tossed into a pond. The ground shaking that occurs as these seismic waves pass by causes most of the damage. The strength of the waves at a particular site depends on the earthquake's magnitude, which measures the size of the fault rupture, the distance of the site from the rupture, and the local geological conditions at the site.
The UCERF study has determined the probabilities that different parts of California will experience earthquake ruptures of various magnitudes ("earthquake rupture forecast") but not the likelihood of shaking that will be caused by these quakes ("seismic hazard"). This is an important distinction, because even areas with a low probability of fault rupture can experience shaking and damage from distant, powerful quakes.
The U.S. Geological Survey is incorporating the UCERF into its official estimate of California's seismic hazard, which in turn will be used to update building codes. Other subsequent studies will add information on the vulnerability of manmade structures to estimate expected losses, which is called "seismic risk." In these ways, UCERF will help to increase public safety and community resilience to earthquake hazards.  (Excerpt from http://www.scec.org/ucerf/)

Tropical Weather Outlook

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Disaster Declaration Activity

The Joint Field Office for 1733-OR (Severe Storms, Flooding, Landslides & Mudslides December 1 - 17, 2007) closed April 17, 2008.

In Oklahoma, Public Assistance PDAs in multiple counties are scheduled to begin on April 21, 2008.  (FEMA HQ)