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National Situation Update: Thursday, April 17, 2008

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Significant National Weather

West:
Rain and snow is forecast for Colorado and New Mexico, a foot of snow is possible in the Rocky Mountains.  Denver could pick up 2-5 inches of snow before this storm departs Thursday.  Thursday's temperatures are forecast below average in Colorado and New Mexico with highs in the 30s in the mountains and in the 40s to middle 50s in the lower elevations.  Red Flag Warnings are in effect for eastern Arizona, and southeast New Mexico for dry air, decreased humidity and windy conditions creating an environment conducive for fire.

Midwest:
A storm system will move from the Texas Panhandle tonight to eastern Iowa Friday night with moderate rainfall from northern Missouri and southern Iowa northeastward into southern Wisconsin, western Michigan and northern Illinois.  Numerous flood warnings remain in effect for rivers in Indiana, Illinois, Tennessee and Oklahoma.

South:
Severe thunderstorms are possible from southwest Missouri southwest to central Texas.  Stronger storms may contain large hail, damaging wind gusts and isolated tornados.  Red Flag Warning remain in effect for west central Georgia to eastern Georgia, south and west Texas and most of Florida.  Dry air, increased winds and decreased humidity creating an environment conducive for fire.

Northeast:
High pressure dominates much of the Northeast Thursday and Friday.  Temperatures should continue their warming trend with highs mostly in the 60s and 70s Thursday and in the mid 60s (New England) to lower 80s (eastern Virginia away from the Atlantic Ocean and Chesapeake Bay) (NWS, Various Media Sources)

Mississippi Valley Flooding

CURRENT SITUATION
A low pressure system coming from the Rockies will enter the mid-Mississippi Valley area today; bringing rain that could cause severe weather conditions for the areas currently involved in flooding. Rain will continue over the Mississippi Valley region on Friday before moving to the Ohio Valley region on Saturday.

Flood Warnings continue for the Mississippi River in Illinois, Missouri, Mississippi, Louisiana and Kentucky.  Moderate Flood Levels will continue for the next 48 hours.

Flooding continues for the Ohio River in Indiana, Kentucky, Illinois, and Missouri; however, water levels continue to recede and portions of the river will fall below flood stage over the next 24 hours. Minor to moderate flooding will continue in areas closer to the Mississippi River.

FEDERAL RESPONSE
FEMA Region IV
Mississippi

• EOC at Level III (Partially Activated w/MEMA)
• State has requested 1 Public Assistance (PA) and 2 Individual Assistance (IA) Joint Preliminary Damage Assessments (PDA) teams due to damages from the severe weather on April 4-5, 2008.Major/Moderate Flooding:
• The Mississippi River:
  • Greenville, MS is at Major Flood Stage, beginning on April 15, 2008.  At the current level, practically all areas between levees are flooded.  Forecast to stay at the major stage at least through April 22, 2008.
  • Vicksburg, MS is at Major Flood Stage, beginning April 14, 2008. 
  • Arkansas city gauge is reporting Major flood stage and forecast to stay there for the next several days

Tennessee

• Joint FEMA-State IA PDAs for Lawrence, Giles and Warren counties in Tennessee began Wednesday, April 16, 2008.

FEMA Region V
Illinois

• Counties: 15 Counties with Declared States of Emergency.
• Major/Moderate River Flooding:
• Rock River
  • At Moline is at major flood stage and will start to fall below major stage starting April 18, 2008.
  • Joint IA PDAs have been completed in 12 counties(NWS Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service,   USACE, Region V)

Wisconsin

• Rock River
  • At Newville is at major flood stage until April 21, 2008, and then it will start to fall below the major stage.
  • Some sandbagging has been conducted but there have been no evacuations or rescues in that area.  There have been no requests for any State or Federal assistance

FEMA Region VI

• FEMA state liaisons deployed to state EOCs in Texas for wildfire support.
• Mission Assignment issued to the USACE to provide pumps to address flooding in Jacksonport (Jackson County), Arkansas.

Arkansas

• State EOC at normal operations.
• Arkansas requested PA PDAs for 56 counties (an increase of 11) completed in 49 counties (up from 42).
• Five Disaster Recovery Centers (DRC) are open in northern Arkansas.
• The levee in Prairie County is being reinforced by the Corps of Engineers using barrels and sandbags to mitigate the problem. They will continue to monitor the levee. (Region VI)
• Major/Moderate Flooding Update:
• White River:
  • The flood gauge above Augusta will fall below major flood levels sometime during the day on April 17, 2008.
  • The following locations on the White River are above the Major flood stage: Newport, Georgetown, Des Arc and at Clerendon.  Starting on April 18, 2008 the flood gauges in the northern part of the state will start to fall below major flood readings.  The flood gauges south will start to fall below major flood stage starting April 20, 2008 thru April 23, 2008 as the flow allows.  Weather permitting, thunderstorms forecast for Thursday into Friday (NWS Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service).
• Mississippi River:
  • Arkansas City is at Major Flood Stage; all land inside levee protection is inundated.
  • Greenville and Vicksburg flood gauges are reporting above Major flood stage.  Forecast to stay above  Major stage thru the 22nd of April
  • PDAs are on-going in Arkansas.  6 assigned IA PDAs remain and 3 PA PDAs remain as of April 12, 2008.  (NWS Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service).

Louisiana

• State EOC is at normal operations
• Major/Moderate River Flooding:
• Mississippi River:
  • Baton Rouge is at Major Flood Stage and will continue to steadily rise throughout the forecast period.  According to Region VI, the base line height of the levee is 48 ft and at this time, there is no impact.  (NWS Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service, Region VI)
• NWS and USACE assessment that no levees will be overtopped and river will crest well below the maximum protection height of the New Orleans levees. (NWS/USACE/Region VI)
• Per the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers the threat assessment of the main line levees on the Mississippi River from Northern Louisiana to the Gulf of Mexico and the main line levees in the Atchafalaya River, there is no expected overtopping based on the current river crest forecast by the NWS at this time.  The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers continue to monitor levees 7 days a week. (USACE Level 2 Activation)
• The Bonnet Carre spillway remains open to divert water from the rising Mississippi River.

FEMA Region IX
FEMA 1743-DR-HI JFO closure effective the close of business (COB) on Friday, April 25, 2008.
(Region IV RRCC, Region V RRCC, Region VI RRCC, Arkansas Department of Emergency Management (ADEM) Emergency Operations Center, Louisiana Governor's Office of State Homeland Security and Emergency Preparedness (GOSHEP), Oklahoma Department of Emergency Management, Texas Division of Emergency Management State Operations Center, National Weather Service, National Guard Bureau, USACE.)

Colorado Fire

Three fatalities, two fatalities attributed to the Ordway fire and one at the Fort Carson Fire.  Ordway fire in Crowely County, Colorado, the town of Ordway 1200 - 1600 people were evacuated.  Fifty structures have been lost, 90 percent contained and 8,900 acres have burned, it is 12 miles long and 10 miles wide.  Four Ad Hoc shelters have been set up, unknown populous at this time.  The Fort Carson fire involving 9,600+ acres, percentage contained is unknown at this time.  Two shelters have been set up, unknown populous at this time on Fort Carson.  (FEMA HQ)

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

FEMA-2761-FM was approved for the Hebbronville Fire in Texas on April 16, 2008, at 9:26 p.m. EDT.  500 acres were involved, the fire is within town limits of Hebbronville, Jim Hog County, TX and the south 1/3 of town is threatened.  There is 0% containment.  Sixty-seven people are under mandatory evacuation, with some voluntary evacuations.  350 homes are threatened. Fire is on State and Private land.  The only fire barriers are small roads.  There are five other uncontrolled fires in TX.(FEMA HQ)

Tropical Weather Outlook

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)