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National Situation Update: Wednesday, April 2, 2008

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Significant National Weather

South:
Rain and thunderstorms are forecast for much of the South, from the southern Plains, through the Southeast, and into the Florida Peninsula.

Oklahoma and northern Texas could develop thunderstorms with strong winds and hail Wednesday night; however, Red Flag Warnings will be in effect Wednesday afternoon and evening for the southwest and south central sections of New Mexico and the far western areas of Texas.

High temperatures will range from the 50s over the southern Plains, Kentucky, Virginia, and North Carolina to the 80s across much of southern Texas, southern Georgia and the Florida Peninsula.  Parts of the southern Rio Grande valley may top 90 degrees.

West:
A storm system from the Pacific will produce rain for the central and southern California areas and potential light snow for the central and southern sections of the Sierra Nevada.  Rain and some snow are expected across the mountains from Idaho and Wyoming down to Colorado.

Highs are forecast in the 40s in the northern Rockies with 50s in the Northwest and Great Basin to the 70s and 80s in New Mexico and Arizona.

Northeast:
Scattered light snow showers are possible in northern sections of New York and New England; however, most of the Northeast will stay dry. 
High temperatures are forecast in the 40s and 50s across most of the region with lows in 30s for Northern New England.

Midwest:
Some light rain or snow is expected across the central Plains, and into South Dakota.  Highs will be in the 40s over much of the northern Plains through Michigan and in the 50s for the central Plains through the Ohio Valley. 

A powerful storm is forecast with potential heavy rain.  Areas from the southern Plains to the Ohio Valley may see several inches of rain late Wednesday to Friday morning.  This may cause rivers to remain in flood stage or to return to flood stage. 

Severe weather, with tornadoes, may also occur across for areas of southern Kansas, Oklahoma and northern Arkansas.

Midwest Flooding Update

CURRENT SITUATION

Flood watches and warnings remain in effect for the Ohio, Tennessee and Mississippi River Basins. River gauges monitored by the National Weather Service (NWS) indicate 3 river locations experiencing Major Flooding and 120 gauges overall in some degree of flood. In addition, numerous river gauges in the Mid-Mississippi Valley, Wisconsin and Indiana are currently near flood stage. Renewed flooding is occurring or predicted in Missouri, Illinois, Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, and northern Indiana due to the storms that occurred on Monday and Tuesday. Potentially heavy rains may move back into southern Missouri and southern Illinois on Thursday into Friday which could create severe flooding once again for the Meramec River in southern Missouri and the Big Muddy River in southern Illinois.

STATE AND LOCAL RESPONSE
Arkansas
The State Emergency Operations Center (EOC) continues normal operations at a Level III, 8:00 a.m. - 7:00 p.m. CDT. Fatalities remain at two; however, the current number of injuries and/or missing personnel are being investigated. There are 35 counties affected with several areas experiencing water supply problems due to flooding/inoperable treatment systems. Boil water orders remain in effect.

• The White River at Des Arc, AR is at Major Flood Stage and continues to recede. The river is forecast to reach moderate flood stage by late Wednesday, April 2, 2008.
• The White River at Clarendon, AR will remain at major flood stage through Sunday, April 6, 2008.
• One section of levee at Pocahontas remains under water and the locals may attempt to conduct temporary repairs when drainage permits.

Indiana
State EOC has returned to normal operations (8:00 a.m. - 5:00 p.m. EDT). One fatality and eight injuries have been reported. Local and State Preliminary Damage Assessments (PDAs) continue and there has been no official requests for Joint PDAs or federal assistance.

• White River at Petersburg, IN is at Moderate Flood Stage and is forecast to recede below Moderate Flood Stage Thursday, April 10, 2008.
• Pakota River at Princeton has fallen to Moderate Flood Stage; forecast to continue to recede through next week.
• The White River at Hazelton will fall below flood stage on Wednesday, April 9, 2008.
• Wabash River in Mount Carmel will fall below Moderate Flood Stage Monday, April 7, 2008

Illinois
The State EOC is operational from 8:00 a.m. - 5:00 p.m. CDT. Two fatalities have been attributed to the flooding. Illinois has requested Joint Individual Assistance (IA) PDAs for a total of 12 counties. Four PDA teams will begin Joint IA PDAs on Wednesday, April 2, 2008.

• Ohio River at Grand Chain Dam, IL has fallen to Moderate Flood Stage and continues to recede.
• The Ohio River at Cairo, IL is at Moderate Flood Stage and continues to recede.
• The Mississippi River at Thebes, IL has fallen below flood stage and is forecast to rise again to flood stage Friday, April 4, 2008.
• The Big Muddy River near Murphysboro, IL is at Moderate Flood Stage and rising; will crest Saturday, April 5, 2008 at approximately 8 feet above flood stage, before beginning to fall again.

Louisiana
State EOC remains at normal operations from 8:00 a.m.-5:00 p.m. CDT. The Governor of Louisiana issued a State of Emergency on March 27, 2008 for the period of March 24-April for the Midwest flooding . The flood risk continues along the Mississippi throughout the week.

• Mississippi River at New Orleans is below flood stage and is forecast to remain below flood stage through the forecast period.
• Mississippi River at Red River Landing is nearly 5 feet above flood stage and continues to rise. The river is forecast to continue to rise to nearly 7 feet above flood stage through Sunday, April 6, 2008.
• Mississippi River at Baton Rouge is above flood stage and will continue to rise to over 2 feet above flood stage by Saturday, April 5, 2008
• Atchafalaya River at Morgan City is approximately 2 feet above flood stage and is forecast to continue to rise to approximately two and a half feet above flood stage by Sunday, April 6 2008.

The Army Corp of Engineers (USACE) is projecting no overtopping of levees of the Mississippi based on the forecast from the NWS. The flooding that is projected is either between the levee and the Mississippi River or caused from backwaters such as bayous and streams that empty into the Mississippi River. Currently, no problems have been identified so far, and there has been no request for State assistance.

Mississippi
SEOC is at normal operations which is at 24/7 coverage. Risk of flooding increases along the Mississippi through the week with numerous flood warnings continuing for the Mississippi River at locations in Greenville, Vicksburg and Natchez until further notice.

• Mississippi River near Greenville, MS is at moderate flood stage today, Wednesday April 2, 2008 and is expected to crest 1.5 feet above moderate flood stage Thursday, April 3, 2008.
• The Mississippi River near Vicksburg, MS is experiencing minor flooding and is expected to reach moderate flood stage on Friday, April 4, 2008
• Mississippi River near Natchez, MS will rise above moderate flood stage today, Wednesday, April 2, 2008 and continue to rise above moderate flood stage through Friday, April 4, 2008.

Missouri
The SEOC is not activated at this time. Fatalities remain at five people. Over 1,243 homes have been damaged, destroyed or affected. An estimated 50 businesses have been destroyed or sustained damage as well. The three breaks in the levee near Poplar Bluff have been repaired and only six State roads remain closed. IA PDAs for the state have been completed and PA PDAs are ongoing.

• The Mississippi River at Cape Girardeau, MO is below flood stage and expected to rise to minor flood stage early April 2, 2008. The river will continue to rise to 4.5 feet above flood stage by Saturday, April 5, 2008.
• Mississippi River at New Madrid, MO has fallen into Minor Flood Stage and is forecast to continue to fall through Saturday, April 5, 2008.

Texas
The Texas State Division of Emergency Management EOC is activated at Level I, 24/7 operations. Ten (10) inches of rain fell over Sabine and San Augustine Counties in east Texas on the evening of March 30, 2008 causing widespread flooding. The Governor's Department of Emergency Management (GDEM) requested a Governor's proclamation for Sabine and San Augustine counties.

The Bland Lake Dam (privately owned) was overtopped by an estimate of 3 to 4 feet of water during the heavy rains. The spillway and crest suffered some damage; dam structural sound. The Texas Dam safety engineer is en route to conduct further assessment. Three people remain missing and there is one confirmed fatality due to the flooding. One shelter is available in San Augustine and another shelter on standby. In San Augustine County, a total of 27 homes were reported flooded. Three hundred customers continue to remain without a public water supply but the new estimate restoration is schedule for today, April 2.

Electric power has been restored to all customers except five homes in San Augustine County that are structurally unstable to receive power. All major highways and Farm to Market Roads have been cleared and are open to traffic. Several county roads remain closed and crews are on scene making repairs

• The Sabine River near Longview crested Tuesday approximately 7 feet above flood stage and has begun to slowly recede
• The Asish Bayou south of San Augustine has returned to below flood stage after having recorded record flooding on Sunday, March 30th.

The Texas Division of Emergency Management continues to respond along with numerous State, county, local and civilian agencies. The TX VOAF is providing clean-up kits, water and food to local citizens and responders and state IA PDAs are scheduled to begin in Sabine County on April 3, 2008 and San Augustine County on April 4, 2008. The Texas DEM reports that no Federal assistance is required and there are no unmet needs. (Region V, Region VII, Region VI, NWS, NSS, NGB,NICC, ADEM, TX SOC, IL EOC, ARC, MEMA, NOAA)

FEDERAL RESPONSE
FEMA Region V

• Region V RRCC: Level III, 7:30 a.m. - 5:00 p.m. CDT (M- F)

FEMA Region VI

• Region VI RRCC: Level III, 7:00 a.m. - 5:00 p.m. CDT (M- F)
• FEMA liaison officers deployed to Arkansas and Texas EOCs
• FIRST Atlanta arrived in Little Rock, Arkansas JFO for FEMA-DR-1751-AR.
• Four PA PDA teams performing PDAs in Oklahoma for eleven counties for flooding that occurred March 17, 2008 and ongoing.

FEMA Region VII

• Region VII RRCC: Level III, 6:00 a.m. - 6:00 p.m. CDT (M-F)
• IA PDAs in Missouri have been completed; PA PDAs began April 1, 2008. (Denton MOC, Region V, Region VI, Region VII, USACE, USCG, FEMA HQ)

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

Nothing significant to report.  (FEMA HQ)

Tropical Weather Outlook

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Earthquake Activity

At 9:16 a.m. EDT, Tuesday, a magnitude 4.1 earthquake struck nine miles north northeast of Wells, NV at a dept of 4.7 miles.  No injuries or damage reported. 
At 1:55 a.m. EDT, Wednesday, a magnitude 5.2 earthquake struck 255 miles west of Yachats, OR at a dept of 6.2 miles.  No injuries or damage reported and no tsunamis were generated from the earthquake.  (USGS/NEIC/WDC)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Disaster Declaration Activity

Amendment No. 2 to FEMA-DR-1749 for Missouri was issued April 1, 2008.  The amendment adds 16 counties for Individual Assistance (already designated for Public Assistance) due to the severe storms and flooding that occurred March 17, 2008 and continues.
Amendment No.3 to FEMA-DR-1746 for the Commonwealth of Kentucky was issued April 1, 2008.  The amendment adds two counties for Public Assistance (already designated for Individual Assistance) due to the severe storms and tornadoes that occurred February 5-6, 2008.
Amendment No. 3 to FEMA-DR-1731 for the state of California was issued March 31, 2008.  The amendment closes the incident period effective March 31, 2008.
FEMA-DR-1746-KY JFO will close April 9, 2008.
FEMA-DR-1734-WA JFO will close April 7, 2008. (FEMA HQ)