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National Situation Update: Tuesday, April 1, 2008

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Significant National Weather

Midwest
A strong low pressure system pushing across Southern Wisconsin will bring heavy snow to parts of the upper Midwest. Highs will range from the 30s in the upper Midwest to the 50s in the central Plains, while portions of eastern Ohio Valley may exceed 60 degrees. 

Northeast
A low pressure system moving from the Great Lakes into Canada will cause gusty winds across Ohio, Pennsylvania, and New York. Rain will move eastward ahead of an approaching front that will stretch from New York and New England down to Virginia. In the morning, a mix of snow and freezing rain is forecast for northern Maine. Temperatures are forecast to be mild, with highs ranging from the 40s in northern Maine to the 70s in eastern Virginia.

South
Showers and thunderstorms are forecast across much of the South on as a cold front moves eastward. Scattered severe weather is possible from southeast Texas to northern Alabama. The worst storms will be from southern Missouri to northeastern Texas and northern Alabama. Heavy downpours from thunderstorms will increase flood potential across the region. Temperatures will range from the 50s in the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles to the 90s across inland areas of southern Texas.

West
Snow showers in the mountains and rain at lower levels are forecast from Montana to Colorado. High temperatures will range from the 20s at Yellowstone National Park to the 80s in southeast California, much of southern Arizona and parts of southern New Mexico, and 60s and low 70s in California's Central Valley. As a storm system emerges on Wednesday rain is expected across coastal areas of central and southern California with some light snow in the central and southern Sierra Nevadas.

Midwest Flooding Update

CURRENT SITUATION
Numerous flood warnings and watches remain in effect for the Ohio, Tennessee and Mississippi River Basins and eastern Texas.  River gauges monitored by the NWS indicate 4 river locations experiencing Major Flooding and 109 gauges overall in some degree of flood.  Severe weather, including heavy rain, thunderstorms and tornados, moved through northeast Texas and eastern Oklahoma on Sunday and Monday.  River levels are expected to rise above moderate levels in many locations in southern Wisconsin, eastern Iowa, and Illinois due to snowmelt and forecast precipitation. In the Ohio River basin flood potential is somewhat elevated, especially in the western basin where thunderstorm activity will be most intense and widespread, and will introduce more unneeded water into river systems over the next few days.

STATE AND LOCAL RESPONSE
Arkansas
State EOC is at normal operations (8:00 a.m. - 7:00 p.m. CDT). One fatality and four injuries have been confirmed, and one man is reported missing. 46 counties are affected with 38 under a State Disaster Declaration. Several areas are experiencing water supply problems due to flooding/inoperable treatment systems; boil water orders are in effect. 13 Public Assistance and 12 Individual Assistance PDAs have been conducted. Several areas are experiencing water supply problems due to flooding/inoperable treatment systems; boil water orders are in effect.

• Major Disaster FEMA-1751-DR, declared March 26, 2008, was amended to include Individual Assistance for eleven counties. Ten counties were previously approved for Public Assistance. In addition, all jurisdictions in the State of Arkansas are eligible to apply for assistance under the Hazard Mitigation Grant Program.
• The White River at Des Arc, AR is at Major Flood Stage and continues to recede. The river is forecast to reach moderate flood stage early Wednesday April 02, 2008.
• The White River at Clarendon, AR is at Major Flood Stage and forecast to remain at major flood stage through Saturday, April 5, 2008.

Illinois
The State EOC is at normal operations (8:00 a.m. - 5:00 p.m. CDT). Two fatalities have been confirmed. 19 affected counties are included in State declarations. Four PDA Teams will begin joint assessments on Wednesday, April 2, 2008. There has been no request for Federal assistance except for joint PDAs.

• Ohio River at Grand Chain Dam, IL has fallen to Moderate Flood Stage and continues to recede
• The Ohio River at Cairo, IL is at Moderate Flood Stage and continues to recede.
• The Mississippi River at Thebes, IL has fallen below flood stage but is forecast to rise to flood stage again on Friday, April 4, 2008.
• The Big Muddy River near Murphysboro, IL is at Moderate Flood Stage and falling, but will begin to again rise above Moderate flood stage late today, April 1, 2008.

Indiana
The State EOC is at normal operations (8:00 a.m. - 5:00 p.m. EDT). One fatality and eight injuries have been confirmed. Six Counties are affected ; four are under State Declared Emergencies. Local and State assesments are ongoing. There is no request for Joint PDAs or Federal assistance.

• White River at Petersburg, IN is at Moderate Flood Stage and is forecast to recede below Moderate Flood Stage Wednesday, April 2, 2008.
• The Patoka River at Princeton has fallen to Moderate Flood Stage and is forecast to recede to Minor Flood Stage by Monday, April 7, 2008.
• The White River at Hazelton will fall below Moderate Flood Stage on Tuesday, April 1, 2008 and below flood stage on Wednesday, April 9, 2008.
• The Wabash River in Mount Carmel will fall below Moderate Flood Stage Monday, April 7, 2008.

Louisiana
The State EOC is at normal operations (8:00 a.m.-5:00 p.m. CDT). On March 27, 2008 the Governor of Louisiana issued a State of Emergency from March 24, 2008 to April 22, 2008. No problems have been identified so far, and there has been no request for State assistance from local parishes.

• Flood risk continues along the Mississippi throughout the week.
• The Mississippi River at New Orleans is NOT forecast to rise above flood stage during the seven day forecast period.
• The Mississippi River at Red River Landing is more than 4 feet above flood stage and continues to rise. The river is forecast to continue to rise to over six feet above flood stage through Saturday, April 5, 2008. 
• The Mississippi River at Baton Rouge is above flood stage and will continue to rise to over two feet above flood stage by Saturday, April 5, 2008.
• The Atchafalaya River at Morgan City is approximately one and a half feet above flood stage and is forecast to continue to rise to approximately two and a half feet above flood stage by Saturday, April 5, 2008.
• The Army Corp of Engineers is projecting no overtopping of levees of the Mississippi based on the forecast from the National Weather Service. The flooding that is projected is either between the levee and the Mississippi River or caused from backwaters such as bayous and streams that empty into the Mississippi River.

Mississippi
The Mississippi SEOC is at normal operations (24/7). Risk of flooding increases along the Mississippi River through the week. Flood warnings continue for the Mississippi River at Greenville, Vicksburg and Natchez.

• The Mississippi River near Greenville, MS is at  moderate flood stage today and is expected to crest 1.5 feet above moderate late Thursday, April 3, 2008
• The Mississippi River near Vicksburg, MS is experiencing minor flooding and is expected to reach moderate flood stage on Thursday, April 3, 2008
• The Mississippi River near Natchez, MS is more than 2 feet above flood stage and is forecast to continue to rise to above moderate flood stage on Wednesday, April 2, 2008. The river is forecast to rise to above 52 feet (2 feet above moderate flood stage) by Friday, April 4, 2008.

Missouri
The Missouri SEOC is not activated. Five fatalities are attributed to the flooding. 1,980 homes have been damaged, destroyed or affected. An estimated 50 businesses are damaged or destroyed in addition to 2 wastewater lift stations. IA PDAs for MO DR-1749 have been completed. PA PDAs began Monday, although some are waiting for the current severe weather to pass.

• The Mississippi River at Cape Girardeau, MO is below flood stage but is expected to rise to minor flooding early on April 2, 2008.  The river will continue to rise to 4.5 feet above flood stage by Saturday, April 5, 2008.
• The Mississippi River at New Madrid, MO has fallen to minor flood stage and is forecast to continue to fall through Saturday, April 5, 2008.

Texas
The Texas State Division of Emergency Management EOC is activated at Level I, 24/7. The Governor's Department of Emergency Management (GDEM) requested a Governor's proclamation for Sabine and San Augustine counties. Ten (10) inches of rain fell over Sabine and San Augustine Counties in east Texas on the evening of March 30, 2008 causing widespread flooding. Additional showers and thunderstorms may continue on Tuesday, April 1, 2008. There is one confirmed fatality and three people are missing. The Texas Division of Emergency Management is responding to this situation along with numerous State, county, local and civilian agencies. In San Augustine County two (2) homes were destroyed and thirty five (35) received major damage. Power has been restored to all but 6 customers. One shelter is available in San Augustine. TX VOAF is providing clean-up kits, water and food to local citizens and responders. FEMA Region VI provided a Liaison Officer to the Texas EOC. The Texas DEM reports that no Federal assistance is required and there are no unmet needs.

• The Bland Lake Earthen Dam near San Augustine was compromised, releasing over seven feet of water across State Highway 87 in Sabine County. Texas Commission on Environmental Quality has completed dam assessment and a dam safety team will review findings on Tuesday, April 1, 2008.
• Water has receded from Highway 21 between Milam (Sabine County) and the county line. Numerous culverts were damaged and numerous bridges were damaged and/or washed out. 1 bridge on Reeds Road (Sabine County) washed out. County road crews are making repairs to roads.
• The 6 inch water main in San Augustine has been repaired and water has been restored to San Augustine. Boil water notices are in effect for San Augustine and Sabine counties. Brookshire Brothers Grocery Store in San Augustine has provided a truckload of water to community. The school has been provided 36,000 bottles of water.
• The Agish Bayou near San Augustine (Sabine County) crested nearly 13 feet above Record Flood Stage and has now rapidly fallen to below flood stage.
• The Sabine River near Gladwater crested at moderate flood stage but has rapidly fallen to flood stage.
• The Sabine River near Beckville crested near moderate flood stage and will slowly fall above flood stage through Saturday, April 5, 2008.
• The Sabine River near Longview is at moderate flood stage and is forecast to crest 8 feet above flood stage on Tuesday, April 1, 2008 then slowly fall below moderate flood stage by Saturday, April 8, 2008.
• The Attoyac Bayou near Chireno (Nacogdoches County) is nearly five feet above flood stage and is forecast to fall below flood stage on Friday, April 4, 2008. (Region V, Region VI, Region VII, NWS, NSS, NGB, NICC, ADEM, TX SOC, IL EOC, ARC, MEMA, NOAA)

FEDERAL RESPONSE
FEMA Region V
Region V RRCC is activated at Level III (7:30 a.m. - 5:00 p.m. CDT M- F).
Four PDA Teams will begin joint assessments on Wednesday, April 2, 2008.

FEMA Region VI
Region VI RRCC is activated at Level III (7:00 a.m. - 5:00 p.m. CDT M- F).
Four PA PDA teams are performing PDAs in Oklahoma for eleven counties for flooding that occurred March 17, 2008 and ongoing.

• FEMA Region VI liaison officers are deployed to Arkansas and Texas EOCs.
  
• FIRST Atlanta arrived in Little Rock, Arkansas JFO in support of FEMA-DR-1751-AR.

FEMA Region VII
Region VII RRCC is activated at Level III (6:00 a.m. - 6:00 p.m. CDT M-F).
PA PDAs began Monday, March 31, 2008. (Denton MOC, FEMA HQ, Region VI and VII, USACE, USCG)

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

Texas: Fire Management Assistance Grant FMAG-2758-TX was issued March 31, 2008 for the Kentwood Fire. The fire has burned 250 acres and four homes in a 200 home subdivision of Kentwood, Howard County, TX. The fire is currently 0% contained. (FEMA HQ)

Tropical Weather Outlook

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Disaster Declaration Activity

FEMA-DR-1735-OK JFO closed Friday, March 28, 2008.
FEMA-DR-1734-WA JFO is closing Monday, April 7, 2008.
FEMA-DR-1746-KY JFO is closing Wednesday, April 9, 2008.
FEMA-DR-1751-AR: at the request of FCO and State, FIRST Atlanta is conducting situational awareness operations in the vicinity of Batesville, AR. (FEMA HQ)