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National Situation Update: Friday, July 18, 2008

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Significant National Weather

West:
Lingering wetness in the Four Corners' region will fuel more thunderstorms in Colorado and New Mexico.
Temperatures across the Desert Southwest will be between 100 and 120 degrees today.
Midwest:
A stalled front may trigger more thunderstorms (some severe) from the central Plains to the Great Lakes.
Parts of Nebraska, Iowa, southern Minnesota and Wisconsin could see sufficient rain to produce more flooding.
Flood watches extend through the area and flooding has already begun over southeastern Nebraska.  (National Weather Service, Various Media Sources)

California Wildfires

Statewide Statistical Summary:
Currently, there are 2,050 contained fires.  Total fires are 2,093.  98% of the fires in California are contained.  There are 43 active fires. There are currently 17 fire complexes statewide that are actively threatening life and property.  A total of 904,345 acres have been burned (487,167 acres for the 10 most critical complexes) and 18,006 personnel have been assigned.  (CAL Fire)
Fatalities - 3 heat related and 1 unconfirmed fire related; Injuries - 311
American Red Cross reports 1 shelter with 28 occupants (NSS Report, July 17, 2008)
Structures destroyed: 102 residences; 1 commercial; 138 outbuildings
Structures damaged: 8 residences and 5 outbuildings
Structures threatened: 5,180 residences; 97 commercial; 1,967 outbuildings
State EOC is activated 7:00 a.m. - 7:00 p.m. PDT; limited night shift

CA OES reports that the State EOC will not be staffed after 7:00 p.m. PDT, July 18. 

FEMA Region IX Staff in process of demobilizing from EOC; transitioning to cost reimbursement and recovery activities. (CAL Fire/FEMA Region IX 8:00 p.m. PDT report)

President Bush, along with Governor Schwarzenegger, Senator Feinstein, the FEMA Administrator and FEMA Region IXs Regional Administrator visited firefighting operations in Northern California July 17. (CAL Fire/FEMA Region IX 8:00 p.m. PDT report)  (FEMA Region IX, CA OES, CAL FIRE, National Interagency Fire Center)

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

Nothing significant to report. (FEMA HQ)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic/Caribbean:
Tropical Storm Bertha
At 5:00 a.m. EDT, the center of TS Bertha was located about 825 miles south of Cape Mace, Newfoundland, moving to the northeast near 17 mph. This motion is expected to continue with a gradual increase in forward speed during the next 24 to 48 hours.
Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph, with higher, and Bertha should become extratropical by July 20, with an estimated minimum central pressure of 997 mb (29.44 inches).

"Area 1" (Medium potential for Tropical Cyclone Formation)
The center of the broad area of low pressure in the eastern Caribbean Sea is located just to the north of Curacao and Aruba.  This system is accompanied by heavy squalls, mainly over water to the north of the low.  Shower activity remains disorganized at this time, but upper-level winds are expected to become a little more favorable for development, and a Tropical Depression could form over the next 24 hours as the system moves over the western Caribbean Sea.

"Area 2" (Low potential for Tropical Cyclone Formation)
A large area of disturbed weather over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and Central America is associated with a westward moving tropical wave.  Since this system has moved inland over Nicaragua and Honduras, no further development is anticipated.  This system is producing strong, gusty winds over portions of the northwestern Caribbean Sea, and will continue to spread heavy rains over portions of Honduras and Nicaragua.  This activity could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

"Area 3" (Low potential for Tropical Cyclone Formation)
 An area of low pressure, just off the southern Georgia coast, is producing showers and gusty winds, mainly over water.  Environmental conditions are expected to become more favorable for development during the next couple of days, and there is a potential for a Tropical Depression to form, especially if the low remains offshore.  This system is expected to drift to the north or north-northeast. 

Eastern Pacific:
Tropical Storm Elida
At 5:00 a.m. EDT, the center of Tropical Storm Elida was located about 1,100 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja, California and is moving towards the west near 13 mph with this general motion expected to continue for the next couple of days.  Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph, with higher gusts.  Gradual weakening is forecast as Elida encounters cooler waters during the next few days, possibly becoming a Tropical Depression during the next 48 hours, with an estimated minimum central pressure of 994 mb (29.35 inches).

Tropical Strom Fausto
At 5:00 a.m. EDT, the center of Tropical Storm Fausto was located about 425 miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph, with a continued west-northwest motion expected during the next couple of days.  Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph, with higher gusts.  Further strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Fausto could become a hurricane July 18, with and estimated minimum central pressure of 993 mb (29.32 inches).

Western Pacific:
No tropical cyclone activity. (NOAA, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

A magnitude 5.5 earthquake occurred July 17, 2008 at 6:36 p.m. EDT, 334 miles west of Portland, Oregon, at a reported depth of 6.2 miles. There was no tsunami generated, and no damage or injuries were reported.

A magnitude 5.7 earthquake occurred July 17, 2008 at 6:51 p.m. EDT, 338 miles west of Portland, Oregon, at a reported depth of 6.2 miles. There was no tsunami generated, and no damage or injuries were reported.  (USGS, Earthquake Hazards Program, Alaska Earthquake Information Center, Pacific Tsunami Warning Center, and West Coast/Alaska Tsunami Warning Centers)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Fire Activity as of Thursday July 17, 2008:
National Wildfire Preparedness Level: 5

This is the second earliest date of reaching Level 5 since 1990.  (80% of Type 1 & Type 2 Incident Management Teams and crews are committed, as well as a majority of other National Resources). 

Initial attack activity: Light (143 new fires)
New large fires: 1
Uncontained large fires: 42
Large fires contained: 3
Acres Burned YTD - 3,236,690
States with Large fires - AK, CA, CO, NC, UT, VA, and WA
Mixed wet-and-dry thunderstorms will continue in Idaho and Montana, with wet thunderstorms east of the Continental Divide and through the Four-Corner states.  Southern California may still see thunderstorms in eastern sections of the area through July 18.  (National Interagency Fire Center, National Incident Information Center)

Disaster Declaration Activity

Amendment #14 to FEMA-1763-DR for the State of Iowa was approved. One county designated for Individual Assistance.  Three counties designated for Public Assistance.  (FEMA HQ)