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National Situation Update: Thursday, July 17, 2008

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Significant National Weather

West:
Scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms forecasted for the Interior West from Montana southward to Arizona and New Mexico.  A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect for portions of central California and Nevada.  High temperatures across the West will range from the 60s along the north Pacific coast to over 100 in Mojave and Sonoran Deserts.
Midwest:
Locally heavy rain and severe storms are expected in areas from the northern and central Plains to the northern Great Lakes.  Some of these storms may produce heavy rain, large hail and damaging winds.
Flood Warnings continue for numerous rivers in Wisconsin, Missouri and Illinois.  High temperatures will range from the mid-70s in parts of Minnesota and Michigan to the mid-90s in the lower Ohio and Mid-Mississippi Valleys.
South:
An area of low pressure will continue to produce heavy rain across Florida and the coast of Georgia and South Carolina.  High temperatures are expected to be in the mid-80s for most of the region with the exception of the Mississippi Valley and Texas which could see temperatures in the mid-90s and 100s.
Northeast:
Most of the region will be dry and hot with isolated showers and storms forecasted in some areas.
Excessive Heat Watches have been issued for portion of Pennsylvania and New Jersey.  High temperatures will range from near 80 in northern Maine to the Mid-90s in Philadelphia and Washington, DC. (National Weather Service, Various Media Sources).

Predicting Earthquakes through Seismic Waves

A study in California looked at two earthquakes near the San Andreas Fault and measured changes in seismic waves, that could one day help predict earthquakes.  Researchers measured the speed of shear waves (S-waves), before, during and after two small quakes that occurred in 2005.  An irregular signal was detected preceding each of the earthquakes.  One occurred 10 hours prior to the tremor hitting and the other two hours prior. 

Earthquakes discharge energy in two forms of seismic waves; these waves radiate in all directions from the source.  P-waves alternately compress and expand material in the same direction they are travelling.  S-waves are slower, and shake the ground up and down or back and forth, perpendicular to the direction in which they are moving.

To accomplish their research, scientists standardized their "stress meters" by measuring velocity changes coming from a known source, the pressure exerted by the atmosphere at a given point, also called barometric pressure. Prior research indicated that higher barometric pressure coincides with faster seismic wave speed.  The biggest irregularities occurred hours before the biggest quake -- 3.0 in magnitude -- during the two-month period of observation. (Open Sources - Time, CNN, ABC News, Nature)

California Wildfires

Summary:
Currently there are 2,050 contained fires.  Total fires are 2,093.  98% of the fires in California are contained.  There are 43 active fires. There are currently 17 fire complexes statewide that are actively threatening life and property.  A total of 887,315 acres has been burned (524,354 acres for the 10 most critical complexes) and 18,571 personnel have been assigned.  (CAL Fire)

California Wildfires
Fatalities - 3; Injuries - 311
American Red Cross reports 4 shelters with 80 occupants (NSS Report, July 16, 2008)
Structures destroyed: 101 residences; 1 commercial; 138 outbuildings
Structures damaged: 8 residences and 5 outbuildings
Structures threatened: 5,360 residences; 97 commercial; 1,970 outbuildings
State EOC is activated 7:00 a.m. - 7:00 p.m. PDT; limited night shift
FEMA NRCC is monitoring the situation and coordinating with Region IX.
FEMA Region IX RRCC is activated at Level III from 7:00 a .m. - 5:00 p.m. PDT
FEMA LNOs deployed to State EOC, NorthOps Center and SouthOps Center
NRCC LOFR (LNO) deployed to NIFC supporting California wildfires

International Wildfire Support

Australia, New Zealand and Canada are providing 59 fire specialists and managers to assist with fire suppression operations in California.
Canada is also providing two crews to California.
5 Fire fighting specialists from Greece arrived in California
Resources from Mexico are also expected (FEMA Region IX, CA OES, CAL FIRE, National Interagency Fire Center)

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

Nothing significant to report. (FEMA HQ)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic/Caribbean:
Tropical Storm Bertha
At 5:00 a.m. EDT, the center of TS Bertha was located about 355 miles east-northeast of Bermuda.  Bertha is moving toward the southeast near 10 mph.  A turn toward the east is expected today and a northeastward turn with some increase in forward speed is forecast tonight or early Friday.  Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph.  Slight weakening is forecast today followed by little change in strength tonight and Friday.

"Area 1" (High potential for Tropical Cyclone Formation)
The broad area of low pressure centered near the southern Windward Islands has changed little in organization this morning.  This system still has some potential to become a tropical depression during the next day or so as it moves westward at 20-25 mph.

"Area 2" (Medium potential for Tropical Cyclone Formation)
A large area of showers and thunderstorms in the southwestern Caribbean Sea is associated with a westward-moving tropical wave.  Although the shower activity is currently poorly organized, upper-level winds are favorable for development and this system has a chance to become a tropical depression before it reaches the coast of Central America later today or early Friday.

"Area 3" (Low potential for Tropical Cyclone Formation)
Shower activity has decreased this morning in association with a weak area of low pressure along the coast of northeast Florida. Significant development of this system is not anticipated.

Eastern Pacific:
Hurricane Elida
At 5:00 a.m. EDT, the center of Hurricane Elida was located about 795 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja, California.  Elida is moving toward the west near 14 mph and this motion is expected to continue during the next day or two.  Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next few days.

Tropical Strom Fausto
At 5:00 a.m. EDT, the center of Tropical Strom Fausto was located about 530 miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico.  Fausto is moving toward the west near 16 mph.  A gradual turn to the west-northwest with a decrease in forward speed is expected during the next 12 to 24 hours.  Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast and Fausto could become a hurricane in a day or so.

Western Pacific:
No tropical cyclone activity. (NOAA, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Fire Activity as of Wednesday July 16, 2008:
National Wildfire Preparedness Level: 5
Initial attack activity: Light (155 new fires)
New large fires: 1
Uncontained large fires: 47
Large fires contained: 7
Acres Burned YTD - 3,230,861
State with Large fires - Alaska, California, Colorado, Idaho, North Carolina, Oregon, Texas, Utah, Virginia, Washington(National Interagency Fire Center, National Incident Information Center)

Disaster Declaration Activity

Amendment No. 4 to FEMA-1771-DR-Illinois, effective July 16. The Major Disaster Declaration is amended to include 7 counties for Public Assistance and Emergency Protective Measures, (Category B), limited to direct Federal assistance, under the Public Assistance program.
Amendment No. 2 to FEMA-1772-DR-Minnesota, effective July 16. The Major Disaster Declaration is amended to include Nobles County for Public Assistance. (FEMA HQ)