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National Situation Update: Tuesday, July 15, 2008

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Significant National Weather

West:
Heavy rain and strong thunderstorms will continue across central and southern California with some storms producing dangerous lightning, hail and gusty winds.  A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect for portions of Los Angeles, Santa Barbara and Ventura Counties.
Red Flag Warnings remain in effect for portions of  Washington and Oregon.  Dry air will keep humidity values in the teens or most locations during the day today.  The combination of gusty winds and very low humidity will likely result in critical fire weather conditions for several hours this afternoon and evening for Washington and Oregon.  High temperatures across the West will range from around 60 along the northern Pacific coast and in some higher mountain ranges to over 100 in the Mojave and Sonoran Deserts.
Midwest:
Scattered thunderstorms are expected in the Upper Midwest and west-central Plains through Tuesday.
Flood Warnings continue for numerous rivers in Wisconsin and Illinois.  High temperatures are forecast to range from near 70 in northern Minnesota to the 90s in Omaha and Chicago.
South:
Dry weather is forecast for much of the South with the exception of scattered showers and thunderstorms along the Southeast Coast and parts of Texas.  High temperatures will range from the upper 80s in the Carolinas to the high 90s in Texas.
Northeast:
Mostly dry weather and rising temperatures expected throughout the region.
 Strong surf and dangerous rip currents caused by Tropical Storm Bertha that reached the coast over the weekend will continue through Tuesday.  High temperatures are forecast from the upper 70s in New England to the high 80s in Washington, D.C. (National Weather Service, Various Media Sources).

Okmok Volcano: Aleutian Islands, Alaska

Okmok Volcano erupted Saturday, July 12, 2008.  Alaska Volcano Observatory reported ash plume height in excess of 35,000 feet above sea level moving downwind of volcano, over marine areas in North Pacific.  Nine individuals in an area considered "at risk" have been transported by a Good Samaritan out of the immediate area. No other individuals are believed to be threatened.  A general aviation alert has been issued based on the ash cloud.  No requests for Federal assistance.  FEMA Region X will continue to monitor through FEMA Alaska Area Office. (Alaska Volcano Observatory, Region X)

California Wildfires

Summary:
At the height of fire activity, the peak number of fires that were burning was 1,781.  Total fires contained are 1,493.  84% of the fires in California are contained.  They are 288 active fires. There are currently 20 fire complexes statewide that are actively threatening life and property.  A total of 839,343 acres have been burned (541,416 acres for the 10 most critical complexes) and 21,255 personnel have been assigned. (CA OES Updated Report July 14, 2008 and CAL Fire)

California Wildfires
Fatalities - 2; Injuries - 289
ARC Reports 5 shelters with 95 occupants (NSS Report,  July 14, 2008)
Structures destroyed: 100 residences; 1 commercial; 127 outbuildings for the 10 reported fires
Structures threatened: 8,190 residences; 140 commercial; 2,508 outbuildings for the 10 reported fires
State EOC is activated 7:00 a.m. - 7:00 p.m. PDT; limited night shift
FEMA NRCC is monitoring the situation and coordinating with Region IX.
FEMA Region IX RRCC is activated at Level III from 7:00 a .m. - 5:00 p.m. PDT
FEMA LNOs deployed to State EOC, NorthOps Center and SouthOps Center (FEMA Region IX)

International Wildfire Support

Australia and New Zealand providing 44 personnel for critical crew management roles. 
According to Region IX and Cal Fire, 5 specialized Hot Shot specialists from Greece are scheduled to arrive at LAX today
Resources from Canada and Mexico are also expected.

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

Nothing significant to report. (FEMA HQ)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic/Caribbean:
Tropical Storm Bertha
At 5:00 a.m. EDT, the center of TS Bertha was located about 190 miles north-northeast of Bermuda.  TS Bertha is moving toward the north-northeast near 9 mph.  A turn toward the northeast and east is forecast today.   Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph.

"Area 1" (High potential for Tropical Cyclone Formation)
Showers and thunderstorms associated with the Tropical Wave and broad area of low pressure located about 1,000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles continues to produce a broad area of weak and disorganized shower activity; however, this system could develop into a tropical depression at any time during the next day or so as it moves generally westward at 15 mph.

Eastern Pacific:
Hurricane Elida
At 5:00 a.m. EDT, the center Hurricane Elida was located about 470 miles south of the southern tip of Baja, California.  Hurricane Elida is moving toward the west near 12 mph and this motion is expected to continue during the next 48 hours.  Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph with higher gusts.

"Area 1" (High potential of Tropical Cyclone Formation)
A Tropical Wave located 500 miles south of southeastern Mexico is moving westward at 10 to 15 mph.  Organization has changed little over the last 24 hours and it could become a tropical depression during the next day or so.

Western Pacific:
No tropical cyclone activity. (NOAA, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

A 4.2 Magnitude earthquake (13.2 miles deep) occurred on Monday, July 14, 2008, approximately 86 miles ESE of Portland, Oregon.  No reports of damage or injuries. (USGS, Earthquake Hazards Program, Alaska Earthquake Information Center, Pacific Tsunami Warning Center, and West Coast/Alaska Tsunami Warning Centers)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Fire Activity as of Monday July 14, 2008:
National Wildfire Preparedness Level: 5
Initial attack activity: Light (136 new fires)
New large fires: 3
Uncontained large fires: 57
Large fires contained: 1
Acres Burned YTD - 3,173,833
State with Large fires - Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, North Carolina, Oregon, Texas, Utah, Virginia, Washington (National Interagency Fire Center, National Incident Information Center)

Disaster Declaration Activity

The President signed a Disaster Declaration for Michigan for Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding from June 6-13, 2008.  The Disaster Declaration grants Public Assistance (PA) for 11 counties (Allegan, Barry, Eaton, Ingham, Lake, Manistee, Mason, Missaukee, Osceola, Ottawa, and Wexford Counties) with Hazard Mitigation statewide. (FEMA HQ)