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National Situation Update: Monday, July 14, 2008

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Significant National Weather

West:
A high pressure system will keep the Pacific Northwest generally dry today.  Breezy winds and low humidity may result in critical fire weather conditions across portions of south central and southeast Washington and central and eastern Oregon through Wednesday.  Areas of smoky and hazy skies will remain over portions of the interior of northern California.  A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect for the mountains of Los Angeles and Ventura Counties, isolated thunderstorm activity continues across the mountains of Los Angeles County.
Midwest:
Majority of the Midwest and Great Plains will experience dry and warm weather today.  Flood Warnings continue for numerous rivers in Wisconsin and Illinois.  High temperatures are forecast to range from near 70 in Michigan to the 90s in the western High Plains. 
South:
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast from the Carolinas through Florida and much of Georgia westward along the Gulf Coast into Louisiana and northern Texas.  A Fire Weather Watch is in effect Tuesday afternoon for the interior portion of the northwest Florida panhandle.  High temperatures will range from the mid-80s in some coastal locations to the middle and upper 90s in much of Texas.
Northeast:
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast for New England through extreme southeastern New York and New Jersey into central and eastern Virginia today.  High temperatures are forecast near 70 in far northern Maine to around 87 in Washington, D.C.  (National Weather Service, Various Media Sources).

Okmok Volcano, Alaska:

The Okmok Volcano erupted Saturday, July 12, 2008.  The Alaskan Volcano Observatory reported ash plume height in excess of 35,000 feet above sea level; moving downwind of volcano, over marine areas in North Pacific.  Ash continues to erupt, but seismicity level has peaked and is declining.  Ash Fall Advisory remains in effect for Nikolski and Unalaska/Dutch Harbor, ash cloud poses risk to aircraft in vicinity.  No requests for Federal assistance.  FEMA Region X will continue to monitor through FEMA Alaska Area Office. (Alaska Volcano Observatory)

California Wildfires

Summary:
California has a total of 1,781 fires, 1,493 are contained (84%); 288 total active fires.  There are currently 21 fire complexes that are actively threatening life and property.  There are a total of 825,418 acres burned (527,491 acres for the 10 most critical complexes) and 21,477 personnel assigned. (CA OES Report July 13, 2008 and CAL Fire)

California Wildfires
Fatalities - 1; Injuries - 282
ARC Reports 5 shelters with 147 occupants (NSS Report, July 13, 2008)
Structures destroyed: 100 residences; 1 commercial; 127 outbuildings for the 10 reported fires
Structures threatened: 8,190 residences; 140 commercial; 2,508 outbuildings for the 10 reported fires
State EOC is activated 7:00 a.m. - 7:00 p.m. PDT; limited night shift
FEMA NRCC is monitoring the situation and coordinating with Region IX.
FEMA Region IX RRCC is activated to Modified Level III from 7:00 a .m. - 5:00 p.m. PDT
FEMA LNOs deployed to State EOC, NorthOps Center and SouthOps Center (FEMA Region IX)
International Wildfire Support
Australia and New Zealand providing 44 personnel for critical crew management roles. 
5 Greek firefighters scheduled to arrive Thursday, July 17
Resources from Canada and Mexico are expected.

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

Nothing significant to report.(FEMA HQ)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Tropical Storm Bertha
At 5:00 a.m. EDT, the center of Tropical Storm Bertha was located about 90 miles southeast of Bermuda.  Tropical Storm Bertha is moving toward the north-northwest near 8 mph.  A gradual turn north is forecast today, followed by a gradual turn toward the northeast on Tuesday.  Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph with higher gusts.  Bertha is expected to produce rainfall amounts in Bermuda of 3 to 5 inches.

"Area 1" (High potential for Tropical Cyclone Formation)
At 2:00 a.m. EDT, the low pressure system located about 1400 miles east of the Lesser Antilles continues to increase in organization.  This system appears likely to become a Tropical Depression sometime today as it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.

Eastern Pacific:
Hurricane Elida
At 5:00 a.m. EDT, the center Hurricane Elida was located about 335 miles south-southwest of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico and about 475 miles south-southeast of the southern tip of Baja, California.  Hurricane Elida is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph and this motion is expected to continue today with a turn toward the west on Tuesday.  Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph with higher gusts.  Little change in strength is forecast during the next 24 hours.

"Area 1" (Medium probability of formation)
A broad area of low pressure located a couple hundred miles south of El Salvador and Guatemala is moving westward at 10 to 15 mph.  Although thunderstorm activity remains disorganized, environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system and it could become a tropical depression during the next couple of days.

Western Pacific:
No tropical cyclone activity. (NOAA, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

A 3.5 and 3.6 Magnitude earthquake (57.8 and 38.2 miles deep) occurred on Sunday, July 13, 2008, approximately 90 miles NNE of San Juan, Puerto Rico.  No reports of damage or injuries. (USGS, Earthquake Hazards Program, Alaska Earthquake Information Center, Pacific Tsunami Warning Center, and West Coast/Alaska Tsunami Warning Centers)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Fire Activity as of Sunday July 13, 2008:
National Wildfire Preparedness Level: 5
Initial attack activity: Light (101 new fires)
New large fires: 4
Uncontained large fires: 63
Large fires contained: 2
Acres Burned YTD - 3,125,854
State with Large fires - Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, North Carolina, Oregon, Virginia, Washington (National Interagency Fire Center, National Incident Information Center)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)