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National Situation Update: Wednesday, July 9, 2008

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Significant National Weather

West
Unusually high temperatures will continue throughout much of inland California and the Mojave and Sonoran Deserts, up to the Columbia Basin in eastern Washington; Central Valley and Las Vegas Valley.  Temperatures may reach 110-115 degrees; Death Valley is expected to reach 123 degrees.  The north Pacific Coast, Cascades, and Rockies will have below average temperatures.  Scattered thunderstorms are expected throughout New Mexico, southeastern Arizona, the Colorado Rockies, and southeastern Wyoming; some storms in New Mexico may contain heavy rain.  Severe drought continues across parts of the southeast, Texas, New Mexico, the southern high plains, North Dakota, California, and the Inter-Mountain West. Some relief is possible over the southeast, New Mexico, and Texas.  Red Flag Warnings are in effect until Friday for most of the region as a result of low humidity, high temperatures and increased winds, especially in southwest Oregon and northwest California.
Northeast
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are forecast for the northeast; from New England to the Chesapeake Bay.
South
Scattered thunderstorms along the I-40 corridor from Texas to Tennessee are expected; however, the heavy rain across extreme southern Texas will diminish.
Midwest
Thunderstorms are forecast for locations from the central Plains to the Ohio Valley.  Missouri and the southern half of Illinois may see heavy precipitation with flash flooding possible. (National Weather Service, Various Media Sources)

Midwest Severe Weather and Flooding

Current Situation
Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across the Ohio Valley and Middle Mississippi Valley, producing heavy rainfall across parts of Iowa, Kansas, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, Mississippi, and Michigan.  Less severe, scattered thunderstorms are forecast for Wisconsin and Minnesota.  Rivers remain above flood stage along parts of the Mississippi River in Illinois and Missouri, the Rock River in Wisconsin, and the Iowa and Des Moines Rivers in Iowa.  However, river levels will continue to gradually fall through the week, and are expected to fall below moderate flood stage by the weekend.
The Upper Mississippi River navigation channel is open to commercial traffic.  The staff for Locks 22, 24, and 25 continue to clear the queue of towboats and barges caused by the river closure.  The opening of Kaskaskia Lock on the Kaskaskia River has been delayed until July 10, 2008.  U.S. Coast Guard opened the St. Louis Harbor to Northbound commercial vessels on Monday, July 7, 2008.  Southbound restrictions for tows in the Harbor are still in effect.  Levees are primarily stable and holding; U.S. Army Corp of Engineers (USACE) and local responders continue to monitor them.  Total USACE personnel committed to the flood response is 110. (USACE)
FEMA Region V:
RRCC is activated at Level III, 7:00 a.m. - 7:00 p.m. CDT (M-F).  A FEMA State Liaison remains active at the Illinois EOC.  Joint Public Assistance (PA) and Individual Assistance (IA) Preliminary Damage Assessments (PDAs) are ongoing in Illinois, Indiana, and Minnesota.  There was one shelter open in Wisconsin with a population of eight. (NSS Report as of 4:00 p.m. EDT July 8)   Short and long-term recovery efforts are ongoing in Indiana, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Illinois.
FEMA Region VII:
RRCC is activated at Level III, 6:00 a.m. - 6:00 p.m. CDT (M-F).  Region VII is supporting 10 open disasters and 4 JFOs.  Joint PDAs are ongoing in Iowa.  There were two shelters open in Iowa with a population of 65. (NSS Report as of 4:00 p.m. EDT July 8, 2008)  Short and long-term recovery efforts are ongoing in Iowa and Nebraska. (NWS, FEMA Regions V, VII)

California Wildfires

The California State Operations Center (SOC) is activated 7:00 a.m. - 7:00 p.m. PDT, with limited night staffing.  FEMA Region IX has Liaison Officers at the SOC, the North Operations Center in Redding, CA, and the South Operations Center in Riverside, CA.  CA State Emergency Operation Center (EOC), Inland Region EOC, Coastal Region Operations Center, and the Southern Region Operations Center are activated.  There was one fatality and 127 injuries are attributed to the fires.  ARC reports 2 shelters are open with 12 occupants (NSS Report as of 4:00 p.m. EDT July 8, 2008).  Fifteen counties are affected, and the Governor of California has declared States of Emergency for 11 counties.
Current Situation:  Firefighters continue to make progress in containing wildfires throughout California.  To date, over 1,400 fires have been contained by State, local and Federal firefighters.  Last night winds picked up causing a dramatic increase in fire behavior and evacuations on many fires.  There are Red Flag Warnings in effect primarily along the coastal range from San Benito County north to the Oregon border through Thursday due to high temperatures, low relative humidity with poor overnight recovery, and locally breezy conditions.  The priority of firefighting is for the protection of life, property and natural resources.
Fires:  1,781; Active Fires:  323; Acres:  667,863 (505,888 for the 10 priority fires); Containment:  81%;
Structures:  12,686 residences, 273 commercial and 1,941 outbuildings are threatened; 77 residences, 1 commercial and 67 outbuilding were destroyed; 5 residences, 1 commercial and 1 outbuilding were damaged. (10 priority fires).  There are no CIKR assets of national concern reported to be threatened or impacted by this event.
Evacuations:  Evacuation orders are in effect for areas of Santa Barbara, Monterey, Butte, and Shasta counties at this time.  Precautionary evacuation orders are in place for areas in Butte, Kern, Mendocino, Monterey, Santa Barbara, Shasta, and Plumas counties.
Highway closures:  Some State highways, county and local roads remain closed throughout California due to wildfire activities.
National Guard
1,117 Guardsmen are supporting the firefight in California.  National Guard resources tasked to support firefighting activity include 29 air resources (17 Type 1 helicopters, 3 Type 3 helicopters, 1 RC-26, and 8 MAFFS).
Federal Support:
FEMA-2782-FM-CA FMAG was approved on July 8 for Camp Fire, Butte County (BTU Complex).
6 Modular Airborne Fighting Systems (MAFFS) and 8 C-130 aircraft continue deployment in support of the State of California.  A National Incident Organization (NIMO) team is assigned as a planning and operational group.  U.S. Marine Corps is providing 6 helicopters for Wildfire support.  U.S. Navy is providing 2 helicopters for Wildfire support. (CA Dept of Forestry and Fire Protection; Region IX, NIFC)

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

FEMA-2782-FM-California was approved on July 8 for Camp Fire, Butte County (BTU Complex). There are 14 uncontrolled fires in the complex; 47,000 acres have burned and the fires are 40% contained.  Ten injuries are attributed to the fires.  3,800 residences and 100 outbuildings, and power transmission lines are threatened; 40 residences and 10 outbuildings have been destroyed. (Region IX, FEMA HQ)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Eastern Pacific:
No tropical activity.
Western Pacific:
No tropical activity.
Atlantic/Caribbean:
Hurricane Bertha:
Category One Hurricane Bertha continues northwestward.  At 5:00 a.m. EDT, the
center of Bertha was located about 560 miles northeast of the northern Leeward Islands and about 790 miles southeast of Bermuda.  Hurricane Bertha is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph, this motion is expected to continue for the next 48 hours with some decrease in forward speed. 

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph, with higher gusts. A slight increase in strength is possible over the next 48 hours.  Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 30 miles from the center, and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles. (NOAA, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Federal Actions
FEMA NRCC is monitoring forecast models and maintaining contact with FEMA Region II, III, and IV RRCCs, NWS and NHC for situational awareness.  FEMA Region II RRCC is activated at Level III from 8:00 a.m. to 6:00 p.m. EDT through tonight. Regions III and IV are activated at Level III and monitoring.  A Region II Partial ERT-A Team remains on St. Thomas.  The Caribbean Area Office also continues to monitor the storm. (Regions II, III, IV, NWS)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Fire Activity as of Tuesday, July 08, 2008:
National Wildfire Preparedness Level: 5

• Initial attack activity: Moderate (274 new fires)
• New large fires: 2
• Uncontained large fires: 67
• Large fires contained: 3

Predictive Weather Discussion: Very hot and dry weather will continue across the West this week. Northeast flow over southwest Oregon and northern/central California will bring poor overnight relative humidity recovery to coastal areas. Isolated wet and dry thunderstorms are expected along the Utah/Arizona border and in western Colorado. The Southwest will continue to see wet thunderstorms and increasing relative humidity. Warm conditions and wet thunderstorms are forecast for Alaska. Scattered showers will continue in the Southeast. (National Interagency Fire Center, National Incident Information Center)

Disaster Declaration Activity

Nebraska:  The Governor of Nebraska requested a Major Disaster Declaration as a result of severe storm damage that occurred on June 27.  The Governor is specifically requesting Individual Assistance for three counties, Public Assistance for four counties, and Hazard Mitigation statewide. (FEMA HQ)

FEMA-1766-DR-Indiana, Amendment #13:  Effective July 8, this disaster declaration is amended to include Madison County for Individual Assistance (already designated for Public Assistance).

FEMA-1769-DR-West Virginia, Amendment #2:  Effective July 8, this disaster declaration is amended to include Clay County for Individual Assistance (already designated for Public Assistance). (FEMA HQ)