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National Situation Update: Monday, July 7, 2008

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Significant National Weather

Northeast
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will occur in most of the northeastern U.S. on Monday, primarily from Pennsylvania and New Jersey southward.  However, there will be little or no rainfall in most of New York State and New England.  Temperatures will be near to above early July averages with highs in the 80s, perhaps near 90 degrees in Burlington, Vermont.
South
In the Southeast on Monday, scattered showers and thunderstorms is forecast for eastern Carolinas, south Georgia and the Florida Peninsula, and isolated storms along the Gulf Coast.  Heavier rain will occur in south Texas where isolated spots could see an inch or two.  High temperatures are expected to range from the low 80s in areas that have received rain to the upper 90s in north-central Texas and central Oklahoma, with 90s in much of the Deep South.
Midwest
A large part of the Midwest and Plains will experience showers and thunderstorms Monday; however, Ohio, Kentucky, Missouri, southeast Kansas, northeast Minnesota and the far western High Plains will receive little or no rain.  A few severe storms may cross over eastern Nebraska, Iowa, far southern Minnesota, southern Wisconsin, and northern Illinois along and in advance of a cold front.  High temperatures are forecast from the upper 60s in Minnesota to the 90s in Kansas.
West
Scattered to locally isolated showers and thunderstorms will occur in southern Wyoming, Colorado, New Mexico and Arizona Monday.  Highs are forecast from the 60s along north Pacific beaches and in the higher mountain ranges to around 115 degrees at locations in the lower Colorado River Valley, and 121 degrees in Death Valley.  The northern end of the Sacramento Valley will be 110 degrees, while Oregon's Willamette Valley will have temperatures in the mid-80s; Salt Lake City will have temperatures around 94 degrees.  (National Weather Service, Various Media Sources)

Midwest Severe Weather and Flooding

Ongoing river flooding continues along parts of the Mississippi River in Illinois and Missouri, the Rock River in Wisconsin, and the Iowa and Des Moines Rivers in Iowa.  Rock River at Newville, WI is the only river at Major Flood Stage, but it is forecast to drop to Flood Stage around or about July 12; other Midwest rivers have points at or above Moderate Flood levels, but all forecast locations are currently receding.  The USACE plans to reopen the Kaskaskia Lock today.  Levees and dams are mostly stable and holding; USACE and local responders continue to monitor them.(USACE, Regions V, VII)

FEMA Region V RRCC:
Activated at Level III from 7:00 a.m. to 7:00 p.m. CDT (M-F).  A FEMA State Liaison remain active in the Illinois EOC.
Joint Public Assistance (PA) and Individual Assistance (IA) Preliminary Damage Assessments (PDAs) are ongoing in Illinois.  Joint PA PDA teams are prepared to conduct assessments in seven counties beginning today.

FEMA Region VII RRCC:
Activated at Level III from 6:00 a.m. - 6:00 p.m. CDT (M-F).
Missouri:
State EOC activated at Level 1, 7:00 a.m.- 6:00 p.m. CDT (M-F).  (FEMA Region V, VII, NWS)

California Wildfires

CA State Operations Center (SOC) is activated from 7:00 a.m. - 7:00 p.m. PDT, with limited night staffing.  FEMA Region IX has Liaison Officers at the SOC, the North Operations Center in Redding, CA, and the South Operations Center in Riverside, CA.  CA State EOC, Inland Region Emergency Operation Center, Coastal Region Operations Center, and the Southern Region Operations Center are activated.  One fatality and 97 injuries are attributed to the fires.  One shelter is active with a population of 20 (NSS as of midnight, July 5, 2008).
Current Situation: State, local and federal firefighters continue to battle hundreds of wildfires throughout California.  Military fixed wing assets (C130s) based at McClellan AFB, have flown approximately 237 missions and dropped close to 667,000 gallons of fire retardant since the beginning of the fire siege.  To reflect this progress, fire reporting has been expanded to include the number of contained, actively burning fires, and peak number of fires since these fires began on June 20, 2008.
Fires: 1,781; Active Fires: 331; Acres: 558,738; Containment: 81%; Personnel Committed: 20,382
Resources Committed: Engines: 1,623; Crews: 481; Dozers: 314; Water Tenders: 461; Rotary Aircraft: 109; MAFFS:  8
Structures: 8,818 residences, 465 commercial and 1,743 outbuildings are threatened; 34 residences, one commercial and 43 outbuildings were destroyed; five residences were damaged. (info based upon 10 priority fires).
Evacuations: Evacuation orders are in effect for areas of Santa Barbara, Monterey, and Shasta counties at this time.  Precautionary evacuation orders are in place for areas in Butte, Kern, Mendocino, Monterey, and Plumas counties.
Highway closures: State highways, county and local roads remain closed throughout California due to wildfire activities.
National Guard
899 Guardsmen are supporting the firefight in California.
National Guard resources tasked to support firefighting activity include 28 air resources (16 Type 1 helicopters, 3 Type 3 helicopters, 1 RC-26, and 8 MAFFS).
Federal Support:
Six Modular Airborne Fighting Systems (MAFFS) and 8 C-130 aircraft continue deployment in support of the State of California.
A National Incident Organization (NIMO) team is assigned as a planning and operational group.
U.S. Marine Corps is providing 6 helicopters for Wildfire support.
U.S. Navy is providing 2 helicopters for Wildfire support.
NASA is providing the Ikhana Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) for firefighting support.  Tentative first mission over Northern California will be July 8, 2008.(CA Dept of Forestry and Fire Protection; Region IX, NIFC)

Modular Airborne Fire Fighting Support (MAFFS)

Through July 6, the Air National Guard and Air Force Reserve have flown more that 237 missions dropping 667,000 gallons of fire retardant in support of the California firefighting efforts.

The Modular Airborne FireFighting System (MAFFS) is a joint program with the Air National Guard, Air Force Reserve, and the U.S. Forest Service.  The MAFFS mission is flown by the Air National Guard's 173rd Airlift Wing from Cheyenne, Wyoming, the 146th Airlift Wing from Port Hueneme, California, and the 145th Airlift Wing from Charlotte, North Carolina and the Air Force Reserve's 302nd Airlift Wing at Colorado's Peterson Air Force Base.

The objective of the MAFFS program is to provide emergency capability to supplement the existing commercial airtanker support on wildfires.
In the early 1970's, Congress established the (MAFFS) program after a major fire burned into Long Beach, California, destroyed hundreds of homes, and overwhelmed the civilian airtanker fleet's ability to respond.

MAFFS is a self-contained reusable 3,000-gallon aerial fluid dispersal system that allows Lockheed C-130 cargo/utility aircraft to be converted to wildland firefighting airtankers.  At maximum flow rate, a MAFFS-equipped C-130 can discharge its entire load in under five seconds. This load can cover one quarter of a mile long and 60 feet wide to act as a fire barrier.

Unlike a gravity system in which the aircraft's center of gravity moves aft as the retardant flows to the rear to exit, MAFFS discharges the retardant alternately from five tank module that store the retardant under pressure.  Each unit weighs about 11,000 pounds, with a load capacity of 3000 gallons.

The units are loaded with either water or retardant -- a chemical that inhibits the combustion potential of vegetation on the ground.  The retardant contains a fertilizer, and promotes regrowth over the burned area.  While water is sometimes dropped directly on a fire, retardant is laid out ahead of the fire or at its edges to inhibit or retard the fire's spread.  This allows firefighters on the ground to rapidly take advantage of the retardant effect, which helps in line-building efforts.  Its bright red or fuchsia color helps airtanker pilots observe the accuracy of their retardant drops on the edge of the fire. Many variables affect the air drops -- including drop height, terrain, wind, fuels, and fire behavior.  MAFFS-equipped tankers can be re-loaded and flight-ready in less than eight minutes. 

The National Interagency Coordination Center at Boise can activate the MAFFS to meet requests for air operations.  The request for MAFFS activation is approved by the Forest Service director at NIFC, who forwards the request to the Joint Director of Military Support at the Pentagon.  Governors of States where National Guard MAFFS units are stationed may activate MAFFS for missions within their state boundaries when covered by a memorandum of understanding with the military authority and the Forest Service.

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

No new activity to report.  (FEMA HQ)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic/Caribbean:
Hurricane Bertha:
At 5:00 a.m. EDT, Hurricane Bertha was located about 845 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands.  Bertha has become the first Hurricane of the season. Hurricane Bertha is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph and this motion is expected to continue during the next 24 to 48 hours with a gradual decrease in forward speed.  The National Hurricane Center (NHC) advises it is too early to determine if Bertha will eventually affect any land areas.  Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph, with higher gusts.  Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 25 miles and TS force winds extend outward up to 115 miles from the center. (NOAA/NHC)

Federal Actions include the FEMA Region II Disaster Operations deployed a five member Advance Team (1-Operations Chief, 2-Logistic Specialists, 1-IT Specialist, and 1-MERS Communications Specialist) to St. Thomas, US Virgin Islands (USVI).  Region II Bunker to check equipment and prepare for the 2008 Hurricane Season as well as potential hit by Tropical Storm Bertha; will fold into the ERT-A if deployed, as required.

Operational Support requests include a 3 member Headquarters Logistics team to support potential operations in Puerto Rico; Mission Disaster Relief Center (MDRC) "fly-away kit" is pre-positioned at the Bunker (FEMA Headquarters IT staff will travel with the kit and provide operational instructions).  The ERT-A and RRCC teams have been alerted and advised about the storm's existence and possible activation.  The Caribbean Area Office has been notified and is maintaining situational awareness on behalf of Puerto Rico.

Eastern Pacific:
At 5:00 a.m. EDT, the center of Tropical Depression (TD) Five-E was located 65 miles northwest of Lazaro Cardenas, Mexico.  TD Five is dissipating over southwestern Mexico.  TD Five-E is moving toward the north-northwest near 9 mph and this motion should continue for the remnants of the Depression for the next 24 hours.  The remnant low should dissipate within a day.  Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph, with higher gusts.  The remnants of the Depression are expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 4 to 6 inches along the coast of southwestern Mexico with isolated amounts of up to 10 inches. (NOAA/NHC)

Western Pacific:
No tropical activity.(NOAA, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Fire Activity as of Sunday, July 6, 2008:
National Wildfire Preparedness Level: 5

• Initial attack activity:  Heavy (302 new fires)
• New large fires: 4
• Uncontained large fires: 72
• Large fires contained: 5

Predictive Services Discussion: Local gusty winds should continue today over Santa Barbara and Ventura counties in southern California.  Otherwise, a strong warming and drying trend weather is forecast for most of the West.  Isolated thunderstorms are forecast for the Southwest, Great Basin, and western Colorado.  Scattered showers are expected over the Southeast. (National Interagency Fire Center, National Incident Information Center)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)